nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2016‒12‒11
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Food gap and food security of sugar in Egypt By SHEHATA, Gaber Ahmed Bassyouni
  2. Financial Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks in Saudi Arabia: Evidence using Pooled and Panel Models By Ghassan, Hassan B.; Taher, Farid B.
  3. Estimating Light-Vehicle Sales in Turkey By Ufuk Demiroglu; Caglar Yunculer
  4. Measuring and Analyzing the Shares of Economic Growth Sources in the Mining Sector of Iran: A Neoclassical Growth Accounting Approach By Mahmood Mahmoudzadeh; Seyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian
  5. Price rigidity in Turkey: evidence from micro data By M. Utku Özmen; Orhun Sevinç
  7. Yabanci Yatirimci Payinin Uzun Donem Borclanma Faiz Orani Uzerindeki Etkileri By Erdal Yilmaz; Canan Yuksel Yucel

  1. By: SHEHATA, Gaber Ahmed Bassyouni
    Abstract: The research aims mainly to study food gap and food security of sugar in Egypt through studying of several sub-goals represented in: estimating models of general trends function for some economic indicators of sugar in Egypt during the period (1995- 2012), studying of the most important indicators of food security of sugar, estimating the size of the food gap of sugar and knowledge of the most important factors responsible for, and studying the policies and means to achieve food security of sugar in Egypt. Descriptive and quantitative analysis were used. The study depends on secondary data, which collected from local and foreign sources during the period (1995-2012). A study models of the general trend function for economic indicators showed that each of the total domestic production of sugar, domestic consumption, and the average per capita consumption, the amount of sugar imports, food gap of sugar, the price of Egyptian imports of sugar and periods of coverage of domestic production and the quantity of imports for consumption daily from sugar, and found that all of these variables has taken a general trend upward morally statistically significant at the level of probability (0.01) with the exception of a variable of coverage period of local production for daily consumption which took a general trend decreasing, and also did not identify the statistical significance of the variables of self-sufficiency rate and the period of coverage of imports for daily consumption , while the annual growth rates differed according to each variable. The conduct study show that the most important variables specific to the food gap of sugar are all from the local production of sugar, the average real price of Egyptian imports of sugar where it was found that the impact of each of these two variables on sugar gap be negative. The study showed that the strategic stock for sugar is estimated at 1.45 million tons and the average local consumption of sugar is estimated at about 2.17 million tons during the study period (1995-2012), thus estimated food security of about 0.84 is therefore required to take various actions which lead to increase the size of the strategic stock of sugar enough for half of it needs for domestic consumption even come close to the value of suitable coefficient of sugar food security The study showed that the policies and means to achieve sugar food security include horizontal agricultural development policy, vertical agricultural development policy, the policy of rationalizing the consumption of sugar, policy of consumer subsidy of sugar, and the policy of diversifying sources of imported sugar. In the light of the results of the study illustrated by research it has been possible to reach some of the following recommendations: 1- It is necessary to intensify efforts to agricultural extension and agricultural research centers in collaboration with factories engineers and agriculture departments and supervisors agricultural awareness of the importance of agriculture resistance to pests and diseases that affect the crop, and help them get on pesticides is harmful to the environment to do so. 2- Increasing of sugar production through the expansion of sugar crops, particularly sugar beet to the lack of water needs compared to sugar cane harvest in the new land. 3- Increasing of sugar productivity crops through dissemination of sugar varieties of high productivity and to suit every center of administrative centers in Egypt. 4- Rationalizing the consumption of sugar during dismiss the size of the loss of sugar. 5- to achieve food security has to be the need to develop awareness programs for the application of planning policy breeds where it is one of the most important determinants of the demand for i Egyptian imports of sugar. 6- it is important to put a national strategy to increase the self-sufficiency ratio of sugar with the need to import and distribute the amounts of diversification between different sources in order to avoid what might happen from political pressure in favor of the Egyptian economy is in the case of international political conditions change. 7- It is necessary to study the reduction commitments of support granted to the production and export in the sugar-exporting countries in order to reduce the negative effects on the Egyptian Savin.
    Keywords: Food gap, Food security, Sugar, Egypt, Agribusiness,
    Date: 2015–05
  2. By: Ghassan, Hassan B.; Taher, Farid B.
    Abstract: The financial crises are considered the major challenges facing the prosperity and stability of the banking system and menace its stability. Several studies on the financial and banking sector have demonstrated that Islamic banks have shown more financial robustness and stability compared to conventional banks, over periods of financial crises. This research aims to measure the stability extent of the Saudi Arabia banks including Islamic banks and conventional banks using quarterly data from 2005 to 2011. This period is characterized by the global financial crisis shocks (2007-2008). The sample used is composed of six banks including two Islamic banks (AlRajhi Bank and AlBilad Bank) and four traditional banks (Riyad Bank, Saudi Investment Bank, Saudi British Bank and Saudi American Bank). This sample represents an important part of 64% of the Saudi banking sector and covers close to two-thirds of banks whose shares are traded on the Saudi stock market. The research focuses on three types of variables related to bank, banking system and macroeconomic levels. The paper is based on quantitative tools using panel regression and pooled regression to model the z-score index for testing the banks' stability in Saudi Arabia. The panel data model shows that Islamic banks reduce relatively the value of the financial stability index; meanwhile, they contribute efficiently to enhance the financial stability through the diversification of their assets. The findings indicate those Riyad Bank and SAMBA groups support efficiently the financial stability of banking sector, while AlRajhi bank has a positive but moderate role in enhancing the banking sector stability. The Saudi banking sector has relatively less level of competitiveness, that affecting negatively the financial stability. The limited representation of Islamic banks in the Saudi banking sector jeopardizes any efforts to improve the financial stability index.
    Keywords: Islamic Banks, Financial Crisis, Financial Stability, Z-score Model, Saudi Arabia.
    JEL: C12 G21 G28
    Date: 2015–01
  3. By: Ufuk Demiroglu; Caglar Yunculer
    Abstract: This paper is motivated by the surprising rapid growth of new light-vehicle sales in Turkey in 2015. Domestic sales grew 25%, dramatically surpassing the industry estimates of around 8%. Our approach is to inform the sales trend estimate with the information obtained from the light-vehicle stock (the number of cars and light trucks officially registered in the country), and the scrappage data. More specifically, we improve the sales trend estimate by estimating the trend of its stock. Using household data, we show that an important reason for the rapid sales growth is that an increasing share of household budgets is spent on automobile purchases. The elasticity of light-vehicle sales to cyclical changes in aggregate demand is high and robust; its estimates are around 6 with a standard deviation of about 0.5. The price elasticity of light-vehicle sales is estimated to be about 0.8, but the estimates are imprecise and not robust. We estimate the trend level of light-vehicle sales to be roughly 7 percent of the existing stock. A remarkable out-of-sample forecast performance is obtained for horizons up to nearly a decade by a regression equation using only a cyclical gap measure, the time trend and obvious policy dummies. Various specifications suggest that the strong 2015 growth of light-vehicle sales was predictable in late 2014.
    Keywords: Light vehicles, Light-vehicle stock, Number of registered cars, Light-vehicle scrappage, Automobile sales, Turkish economy
    JEL: E27 E32 L62
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Mahmood Mahmoudzadeh; Seyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to measure the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and determine the share of each of the economic growth sources in the mining sector of Iran. The time period of this study is 1355-1385 of the Solar Hijri calendar (roughly overlaying with the time period of 1976-2006 of the Gregorian calendar). In this paper, the shares of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) and factors' accumulations in the economic growth of the mining sector are estimated using a neoclassical growth accounting approach. Based on the estimated restricted Cobb-Douglas production function and the results obtained from the Solow residual equation, the annual growth rates of TFP were measured for each year. According to the findings, the average annual growth rate of TFP has been 2.94% during the time period of the present study. The other findings of this study indicate that the average contributions of TFPG, labor accumulation and capital accumulation in the economic growth of the mining sector have been 56%, 23%, and 21%, respectively, during the time period of the study. As such, it can be concluded that the policy of benefiting from available factors in the mining sector together with the policy of accumulating factors have simultaneously caused the value-added growth of this sector. Therefore, considering the desired performance of the mining sector in terms of its sizable productivity growth, it can be argued that the mining sector can aid Iran's economic development plans to achieve their assigned economic objectives, one of which is to increase the share of total factor productivity growth in economic growth.
    Date: 2016–12
  5. By: M. Utku Özmen; Orhun Sevinç
    Abstract: In this study we investigate the duration of consumer price spells and price change patterns for Turkey by employing a comprehensive micro price data covering around 6,000 items over four years. In detail, we analyze how long typical price spell lasts and we investigate the size, frequency, distribution and synchronization of price changes. Compared to advanced economies, a higher frequency of price changes is estimated. Findings suggest substantial heterogeneity among sub-groups in terms of frequency and synchronization indicators. The mixed evidence of both state and time-dependent pricing is also relevant for Turkey, an emerging market economy.
    Keywords: consumer prices; price spell duration; price rigidity; distribution of price changes; state and time dependent pricing
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2015–06–01
  6. By: Gür, Bekir S.
    Keywords: Education
    Date: 2016–02–01
  7. By: Erdal Yilmaz; Canan Yuksel Yucel
    Abstract: [TR] 2008 yilinda yasanan kuresel finansal krizin ardindan Turkiye’nin de icinde bulundugu gelismekte olan ulkelere hizli sermaye girisleri yasanmistir. Bu girislerle birlikte merkezi yonetim ic borc stoku icindeki yurt diþi yerlesiklerin payi, 2006-2009 doneminde ortalama yüzde 11,6 iken; Mayis 2016 itibariyla yuzde 18,8’e ulasmistir. Yabanci yatirimcilarin ic borc stoku icindeki payi, ekonomi acisindan onemli bir degisken olan uzun donemli borclanma faizinin seviyesi ve oynakligini etkilemektedir. Yatirim ve tuketim davranislari uzerinde belirleyici olmasinin yani sira para politikasi aktarimini ve mali alani etkiledigi icin uzun donemli faizler uzerinde yabanci yatirimci payinin etkilerinin anlasilmasi onem tasimaktadir. Bu calisma Turkiye’de yabanci payindaki degisimlerin uzun donemli faizlerin seviye ve oynakligi uzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Bulgular yabanci payindaki degisimlerin uzun donemli faizlerin seviyesi ile ters yonlu; oynakligiyla ise pozitif yonlu bir iliskisi oldugunu gostermektedir. [EN] Following the global financial crisis in 2008, there was a huge capital inflow into emerging market countries, including Turkey. With these inflows, the share of foreign investors in local currency government bonds market in Turkey, which was 11.6 percent in 2006-2009, increased to 18.8 percent by May 2016. The share of foreign investors affects the level and volatility of long-term borrowing rate, which is a crucial indicator for the economy. Therefore, it is of great importance to document the effects of foreign share on long-term interest rate as it affects investment and consumption decisions and the transmission of monetary policy and fiscal space. This study aims to determine the effects of change in foreign holdings on the level and volatility of long-term interest rates in Turkey. The results indicate that change in foreign investors’ share is positively linked to long-term interest rates and negatively to interest rate volatility.
    Date: 2016

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