nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2016‒12‒04
fifteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Impact of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Monetary Policy and Stock Market for eight Middle East and North African Countries By Simohammed, Kamel; Benhabib, Abderrezzak; Maliki, Samir
  2. The Composition of Growth Matters : South Korea vs. Turkey By Selen Andic
  3. Saudi Arabia; 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  4. Saudi Arabia; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  5. Real Wages and the Business Cycle in Turkey By Altan Aldan; Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer
  6. Morocco: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Banking Supervision By International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
  7. An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic By Si Mohammed, Kamel; Chérif touil, Noreddine; Maliki, Samir
  8. Morocco: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Crisis Management, Bank Resolution, and Financial Sector Safety Net By International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
  9. Morocco: Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy; Institutional Arrangements and Instruments By International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
  10. Tunisia; Fiscal Transparency Evaluation By International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
  11. Morocco: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Stress Testing the Banking System By International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
  12. Economics of Regulation: Credit Rationing and Excess Liquidity By Hye-Jin Cho
  13. Iran Furniture Outlook By Sara Colautti; Cecilia Pisa; Donatella Cheri
  14. Les déterminants de la résistance au changement organisationnel : Le cas des universités tunisiennes By Raouf Jaziri; Afef Garbaa
  15. تقدير وتحليل دالة استجابة مساحة البرسيم في مصر By Soliman, Ibrahim; Gaber, Mohamed; Safwat, Maha

  1. By: Simohammed, Kamel; Benhabib, Abderrezzak; Maliki, Samir
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil prices on macroeconomic fundamentals as well as monetary policy and stock market for eight oil-exporting and non-oil exports countries in the Middle East and North African region,namely Algeria,Egypt,Iran,Kuwait,Morocco, Saudi Arabia,Tunisia and Turkey. Using quarterly data for the period 1994Q4-2015Q2,with a Panel-ARDL, we may conclude that there are short run dynamic cross section relationships between,first,oil prices and macroeconomic variables such as growth rate and consumer price index, second, oil prices and money market rate and, third, market capitalization and oil prices. In the long run, dependent variables such as consumer price index and market stock exhibit a cointegration relationship with oil prices. However, no cointegration relationships could be established between oil price variations, monetary policy and growth rate. In this context, we apply a multivariate VAR model to examine responses of all variables to oil price shocks. Results show a relatively high elastic response of economic growth in oil-exporting countries except for Kuwait and, conversely, in oil-importing economics, GDP response to oil prices appear reasonably stable, close to zero. Similarly, the same results can be captured for each oil-importing and exporting country as far as the negative sign exhibited by market response to oil price during the first period caused by financial crisis contagion. The next macroeconomic variable, CPI, shows a positive response to oil.In addition, oil prices appear to have a negligible response on money market rates in the Middle East and North Africa except for Turkey and Egypt.
    Keywords: Oil shocks; Economic growth; Economy; Monetary policy; Stock market; Panel ARDL
    JEL: E00 E52
    Date: 2015–09
  2. By: Selen Andic
    Abstract: [EN] Having a real GDP that compares to the half of Turkish GDP in 1970, South Korea caught up with Turkey in the late 1980s and then outpaced it. In this study, we aim to understand why the convergence experiences of the two countries differ by comparing them in terms of their GDP compositions. 2014 per capita nominal income of Turkey has been achieved around 2000 in Korea. Hence, the countries reached to similar levels of income after 35 to 40 years upon their adoption of export-led growth. However, “how” they have arrived at this level diverges. The findings indicate that Turkey has reached it by relatively high consumption, and low investment with subdued non-residential construction. [TR] 1970’de Turkiye ekonomisinin yaklasik yarisi buyuklugunde bir ekonomiye sahip olan Guney Kore, 1980’lerin sonunda Turkiye’yi yakalamis ve geride birakmistir. Bu calismada, ulkelerin GSYIH kompozisyonlari incelenerek neden iki ulkenin yakinsama sureclerinin farklilastigi tartisilmaktadir. Kore, Turkiye’nin 2014’deki nominal kisi basi gelir seviyesine 2000 senesinde ulasmistir. Yani, her iki ulke de ihracata dayali buyume modelini benimsemelerinden yaklasik 35-40 sene sonra benzer bir gelir seviyesine sahip olmustur. Ancak, ulkeler bu seviyeye “nasil” geldikleri acisindan ayrismaktadir. Bulgular, Turkiye’nin soz konusu seviyeye gorece yuksek tuketim, dusuk yatirim ve dusuk konut disi insaat kompozisyonu ile ulastigina isaret etmektedir.
    Date: 2016
  3. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: Saudi Arabia has begun a fundamental policy shift to respond to low oil prices. The government has introduced a series of reforms over the past year and has recently set out plans for a bold and ambitious transformation of the Saudi Arabian economy in Vision 2030 and the National Transformation Program. Diversifying the economy, creating jobs for nationals in the private sector, and implementing a gradual, but sizable and sustained fiscal consolidation are key policy priorities.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Oil prices;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Privatization;Corporate sector;Fiscal reforms;Labor market reforms;Banking sector;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Saudi Arabia;
    Date: 2016–10–13
  4. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
    Keywords: Budget deficits;Deficit financing;Economic growth;Oil prices;Government expenditures;Fiscal consolidation;Privatization;Public-private sector cooperation;Selected Issues Papers;Saudi Arabia;
    Date: 2016–10–13
  5. By: Altan Aldan; Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer
    Abstract: We analyze the direction and the magnitude of the responsiveness of real wages to the business cycle in Turkey using longitudinal data covering the 2006-2012 period. We find that wages in Turkey are quite procyclical; a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate induces a 0.8 percent decline in real wages. This result can be obtained only if individual heterogeneity is taken into account. We also document wage cyclicality for different groups such as young, low educated, informal workers and job movers. We find a weaker wage response for the low educated and a stronger response for job movers. We also document wage cyclicality along the wage distribution. We find that workers who earn around the minimum wage have acyclical wages. Binding minimum wage suppresses wage cyclicality. For the rest of the distribution wages are highly procyclical.
    Keywords: Turkey, Real wages, Real wage cyclicality
    JEL: J30 E23 E26 E32
    Date: 2016
  6. By: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
    Abstract: Morocco applies international best practices in the area of banking supervision. Nevertheless, it is important that its banking supervision system adapt to both the new international standard3 implemented following the global financial crisis and the structural changes in the Moroccan banking system. In response to these challenges, the Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has adopted a new banking law,4 which includes principles on the supervision of systemically important banks, the strengthening of governance mechanisms, a framework for the orderly resolution of credit institutions, and expansion of the cooperation between regulators.
    Keywords: Financial Sector Assessment Program;Banks;Bank supervision;Bank regulations;Credit risk;Liquidity;Risk management;Morocco;
    Date: 2016–11–07
  7. By: Si Mohammed, Kamel; Chérif touil, Noreddine; Maliki, Samir
    Abstract: The goal of this study is to examine the validity of the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for a sample of nine principle trade partners of Algeria namely Canada, China, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and the euro zone countries. Using panel error correction model (PECM) upon monthly data for the period 2003 M1 – 2015M5, results suggested that the bilateral exchange rate movements is a suitable to support the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. However, suggesting that there is long run relationship between exchange rates and relative prices in foreign courtiers by using panel cointegraion of Pedroni (1999, 2004), that can be interpreted by the validity of purchasing power parity for nine principle trade partners of Algeria
    Keywords: Algeria, panel cointegration, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), panel error correction model (PECM)
    JEL: F31 G00
    Date: 2015–11
  8. By: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
    Abstract: In order to accompany the expansion of the banking system, the Moroccan authorities have achieved tremendous progresses as regards crisis management, bank resolution, and safety nets. A macroprudential committee composed of BAM, ACAPS, AFM, and MoF has been established to coordinate supervisory actions and manage crisis. Each of the supervisory agencies have various early interventions tools. Sound banking resolution mechanisms have recently been established in the banking law. A financial stability mandate is about to be entrusted to BAM, which shall be formally authorized to take exceptional measures (including the extension of emergency liquidity assistance). The deposit guarantee scheme has also been reshuffled, with the creation of two separate compartments, one for participative banks2 and another one for conventional banks. All
    Keywords: Financial Sector Assessment Program;Financial sector;Banks;Liquidity;Emergency assistance;Bank resolution;Bank supervision;Deposit insurance;Financial safety nets;Morocco;
    Date: 2016–11–07
  9. By: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
    Abstract: Macroprudential policies (MaPP) can play an important role in mitigating financial stability risks in Morocco. MaPP aims to increase the overall resilience of the financial system, contain the buildup of systemic risks over time, and address vulnerabilities stemming from structural relationships between financial intermediaries (IMF 2013). For Morocco, limited fiscal and external policy buffers, high vulnerability to external shocks due to dependencies on oil imports and trade with Europe, and the expanding size and complexity of a bank-dominated financial sector underscore the importance of an effective MaPP framework.
    Keywords: Financial Sector Assessment Program;Macroprudential Policy;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Liquidity;Nonbank financial sector;Morocco;
    Date: 2016–11–07
  10. By: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
    Abstract: Since 2011, Tunisia has experienced a profound transformation of its political institutions, including the new Constitution that came into force on January 27, 2014. In this context, the authorities have initiated several reforms to improve fiscal transparency and modernize public financial management. The establishment of a new government in early 2015 also presents an opportunity to revitalize the reform agenda in this area.
    Keywords: Fiscal transparency;Fiscal policy;Budgets;Budgeting;Fiscal risk;Risk management;Technical Assistance Reports;Tunisia;
    Date: 2016–11–07
  11. By: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
    Abstract: The FSAP stress testing exercise took place at a time of deep structural changes for the Moroccan financial system that create opportunities but also bring about potential risks. First, Moroccan banks have expanded both domestically and regionally since the global financial crisis, taking advantage of the opportunities afforded by retreating European banks, and with proactive support from BAM. Second, Morocco’s insurance sector has expanded strongly in recent years, with close links with the banking sector. In addition, some features of the banking system increase its vulnerability to shocks. These include: rapid expansion abroad, and high concentration risks. Moreover, several shocks experienced during the recent years as a result of external and domestic macroeconomic conditions brought about liquidity pressures and a rising rate of NPLs.
    Keywords: Financial Sector Assessment Program;Banking sector;Liquidity;Credit risk;Financial risk;Stress testing;Morocco;
    Date: 2016–11–04
  12. By: Hye-Jin Cho (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In examining the global imbalance by the excess liquidity level, the argument is whether commercial banks want to hold excess reserves for the precautionary aim or expect to get better return through risky decision. By pictorial representations, risk preference in the Machina's triangle (1982, 1987) encapsulates motivation to hold excess liquidity. This paper introduces an endogenous liquidity model for the financial sector where the imbalance argument comes from credit rationing extended from outside liquidity (holmstrom and Tirole, 2011). We also conduct a stylistic analysis of excess liquidity in Jordan and Lebanon from 1993 to 2015. As such, the proposed model exemplifies the combination of credit, liquidity and regulation.
    Keywords: credit rationing, excess liquidity, inside liquidity, risk preference,machina triangle
    Date: 2016–11
  13. By: Sara Colautti (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Cecilia Pisa (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Donatella Cheri (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: CSIL Market Research report Iran furniture outlook is part of CSIL Country Furniture Outlook Series, covering at present over 70 countries. The report contains updated statistics and indicators useful to analyse the Iranian furniture market through tables, graphs and illustrated maps. A detailed overview of Iran's economy introduces the study commenting status, prospects and challenges of the Iranian industry with a focus on the furniture and furnishings sector. Moreover, selected indicators describe the Iranian business climate with a world comparison. Among the demand determinants supporting the analysis of the furniture market in Iran, the report includes a country's demographic profile and information regarding the construction industry and the tourism sector. The study also provides value data to 2015 and forecasts (real growth rates %) 2016-2018 for furniture consumption, market trends and information on main furniture distribution channels and prices, and value data to 2015 for furniture production with an overview of Iran productive factors and furniture productive system. International trading activities parts contain data for furniture imports and furniture exports to 2015, with details for main trading partners and breakdowns by furniture segments (upholstered furniture, non-upholstered seats, bedroom furniture, kitchen furniture, office furniture, furniture n.e.c.). Who are the top players operating in the area? The report includes a list of 40 selected leading furniture companies with kind of activity, product portfolio and website. Main sector fairs and associations are also indicated
    JEL: L11 L22 L68
    Date: 2016–11
  14. By: Raouf Jaziri (IHEC Sousse - IHEC, COSTECH EA 2223 - Connaissance et Organisation des systèmes techniques - Université de Technologie de Compiègne); Afef Garbaa (Université de Sousse)
    Abstract: Cet article veut faire les points sur les percées des déterminants du phénomène de la résistance au changement dans les établissements universitaires tunisiens. Il s'agit d'une étude portant sur un changement organisationnel relatif à la substitution d'une ancienne application informatique de gestion de la scolarité par une autre nouvelle application nommée SALIMA (Système d'Administration des LIcences et MAstères). Nous cherchons à identifier les facteurs explicatifs de la résistance quant à l'adoption de cette application. En fait, Cette contribution s'articule autour de deux objectifs cruciaux. Le premier cherche à passer en revue la littérature notamment la plus récente portant sur les facteurs de la résistance au changement dans les organisations. Le second objectif porte sur l'identification des facteurs clés de la résistance au changement dans le contexte universitaire tunisien qui reste jusque-là un terrain peu exploré. Les résultats des différentes analyses statistiques et économétriques montrent que l'utilité perçue de l'application SALIMA, la taille de l'établissement, la qualité de l'information diffusée, la participation des employés dans la prise des décisions et le degré de satisfaction à propos des formations suivies sont les principaux déterminants de cette résistance. A B S T R A C T This article aims to identify the determinants of resistance to organizational change within Tunisian universities. This study deals with an organizational change related to the substitution of an old computer application of school management by another new application called SALIMA (System Administration of LIcenses and MAsters). In fact, this article focuses on two main goals. The first seeks to review the literature on factors of resistance to change in organizations. The second objective related to the identification of key factors of resistance to change in the Tunisian academic institution, which remained an unexplored field. The results of different statistical and econometric analysis show that the perceived usefulness of the SALIMA application, the size of the institution, the quality of the disseminated information, employee participation in decision-making and the level of satisfaction about training followed are the main determinants of this resistance.
    Keywords: Resistance,Tunisie KEYWORDS : organizational change,application SALIMA,SALIMA application,Tunisia,MOTS-CLES : Changement organisationnel
    Date: 2016–08–05
  15. By: Soliman, Ibrahim; Gaber, Mohamed; Safwat, Maha
    Abstract: Zagazig Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol (43), No (5), September 2016.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries,
    Date: 2016–09

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