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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Didem Gunes; Ferhat Camlica |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study aims to analyze empirically how economic activity reacts to financial stress during different stress episodes in Turkey. Thus, we use monthly data for the period 2002-2015 and estimate a Threshold Vector Autoregression Model (TVAR) with industrial production and an unique financial stress index as endogenous variables. The main findings show that, in case of a given financial stress shock the economic activity loss in a high stress regime is about five times larger than a shock in a normal stress regime. Also, the effect of financial stress on economic activity during a high financial stress episode is more long-lasting than a financial stress shock during a normal stress episode. [TR] Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye icin farkli finansal stres donemlerinde ekonomik aktivitenin finansal stres soklarini nasil tepki verdigini ampirik olarak analiz etmektir. Bunun icin, 2002-2015 donemine ait aylik frekansta veriler kullanilarak, sanayi uretimi ile ozgun bir finansal stres endeksinin icsel degiskenler olarak yer aldigi Esik VAR tahmini yapilmaktadir. Calismanin temel bulgulari, veri bir finansal stres sokundan sonra ekonomik aktivite kaybinin yuksek finansal stres doneminde normal stres donemine kiyasla bes kat daha yuksek olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, yuksek finansal stres doneminde gerceklesen bir finansal stres sokunun etkisi normal donemdekine gore ekonomik aktivite uzerinde daha uzun sureli bir etki yaratmaktadir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1628&r=ara |
| By: | Cem Cebi; K. Azim Ozdemir |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate cyclical variation of government spending multiplier for Turkey over the period of 1990:q1-2015:q4. We use a time series model, namely local projection method, to estimate the variation in the fiscal multiplier under two different regimes: low and high growth regimes with respect to long-term economic growth. In line with the literature our results confirm that the effectiveness of fiscal policy enhances at times of low growth compared with times of high growth. Turning to the components of government spending, we find that the magnitude of government investment multiplier is larger than that of government consumption multiplier in both regimes. This evidence supports the view that an expansionary fiscal policy via public investment has a profound effect on output compared to public consumption. However, we find an evidence that the influence of government consumption on GDP increases substantially at times of low growth. All in all, we suggest policymakers to use public investment rather than public consumption in order to stimulate the economy during economic expansion and prefer to increase public consumption at the times of economic slow down. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, State-dependent fiscal multipliers, Local Projection |
| JEL: | E62 H30 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1619&r=ara |
| By: | Mehmet Buyukkara; Ayse Karasoy; Muhammed Islami Onal |
| Abstract: | [EN] After the global financial crisis, a new resolution tool, bail-in is introduced by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to manage the orderly resolution of failing financial institutions. Bail-in is a framework that creditors and shareholders bear the cost of resolution and taxpayers are not exposed to loss. In this article, we analyze the Turkish bail-out and assess the bail-in capacity of the Turkish banking sector considering the public cost caused by 2000-2001 crises as a base scenario. We conclude that bail-inable instruments compared to total liabilities have increased since the beginning of 2000s and they would be enough to protect taxpayers from loss if a similar size of public cost occurs as in 2000-2001 crises. In addition, the scope for the bail-in and the assessment of the resolution authority for the inclusion and exclusion of instruments will also have an effect on the loss absorption capacity of Turkish banks. [TR] Kuresel finansal krizden sonra finansal kuruluslarin sistemli bir sekilde cozumlemeye tabi tutulabilmesi icin Finansal Istikrar Kurulu (FSB) tarafindan yeni bir cozumleme araci olarak icsel cozumleme (bail-in) ortaya konmustur. Icsel cozumlemenin amaci cozumlemede ortaya cikan zararin borc verenler ve hissedarlar tarafindan paylasilmasidir. Bu calismada 2000-2001 krizinin maliyetleri dikkate alinarak ulkemiz bankacilik sektorunun icsel cozumleme kapasitesi incelenmistir. Krizden itibaren icsel cozumleme kapsaminda kullanilabilecek araclarin arttigi ve benzer buyuklukte bir kriz olmasi durumunda bankacilik yukumluluklerinin cozumleme maliyetlerini karsilamada yeterli olabilecegi sonucuna varilmistir. Buna ek olarak, cozumleme otoritesinin icsel cozumleme cercevesine dahil edilecek ve cercevenin disinda birakilacak araclara iliskin degerlendirmesi de bankacilik sektorunun zarar karsilama kapasitesine etkide bulunacaktir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1624&r=ara |
| By: | Shojaee, M. |
| Abstract: | The working paper looks at the history of Iranian media by and for women, culminating in cyberfeminism. The main focus are women's websites and cyber campaigns dedicated to improving women's rights, and how they helped to mobilize Iranian women's movements. There are two main case studies: The main case study on websites is the "Feminist School" as an important site for feminist discourse and women's movements managed from inside Iran. The main case study in relation to cyber campaigns is the "My stealthy freedom" campaign which is undertaken from outside Iran. Through these two case studies, the paper aims to answer the following questions: To what extent and how do these sites provide strategic opportunities for the Iranian women's movement to advocating gender equality and women's rights? And did the cyber campaign help to build coalitions between women's movements inside Iran and diaspora activism outside of Iran? The case studies are based on the author’s earlier work on the history of the women' movement, interviews with leaders and directors of women's websites and directors of mobilizing cyber campaigns along with self-reflective and discourse analysis of the websites and campaigns. A biography of the author can be found here: (http://www.pen-deutschland.de/en/themen /writers-in-exile/ehemalige-stipendiaten /mansoureh-shojaee/) |
| Keywords: | cyberfeminism, clicktivism, women's movement, Iran, social media |
| Date: | 2016–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:93639&r=ara |
| By: | Vuslat Us |
| Abstract: | [EN] This paper analyzes the determinants of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector before and after the global crisis. The bank-specific determinants include measures on persistence, capital adequacy, profitability, lending, inefficiency and bank size, while other determinants include the real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate and the policy rate, which represent macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In addition, the determinants also include a dummy variable for the global crisis. Estimation results suggest that the determinants of non-performing loans have changed after the crisis. Non-performing loans are mostly shaped by bank-specific factors before the crisis, whereas bank-specific factors have a reduced effect after the global crisis. This can be owed to global factors, which certainly had effects on financial conditions. In the upcoming period, the course of global policy normalization may affect financial conditions and hence non-performing loans. This implies challenges and prospects regarding financial stability and the conduct of monetary policy. [TR] Bu calismada, Turk bankacilik sektorundeki takipteki kredilerin belirleyicileri kuresel kriz oncesi ve sonrasinda incelenmektedir. Bankaya ozgu belirleyiciler olarak atalet, sermaye yeterliligi, karlilik, kredi arzi, verimsizlik ve banka buyuklugu; makroekonomik ve politikaya iliskin etkenler olarak ise buyume, enflasyon, doviz kuru ve politika faizi calismaya dahil edilmektedir. Buna ek olarak, kuresel krize iliskin kukla degiskeni de belirleyiciler arasinda yer almaktadir. Tahmin sonuclari, takipteki kredilerin belirleyicilerinin kriz sonrasinda degistigini gostermektedir. Buna gore, kriz oncesi donemde takipteki krediler buyuk oranda bankaya ozgu degiskenler tarafindan belirlenirken, kriz sonrasi donemde bu degiskenlerin etkileri azalmaktadir. Bunun sebebi, kriz sonrasi donemde finansal kosullarin kuresel etkenler tarafindan sekillenmis olmasidir. Onumuzdeki donemde, kuresel politika normallesmesinin izleyecegi seyrin finansal kosullar ve dolayisiyla takipteki krediler uzerinde etkili olmasi muhtemel gozukmektedir. Bu durum, finansal istikrar ve para politikasina iliskin zorluklar ve olasiliklara isaret etmektedir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1627&r=ara |
| By: | Hamza A. Baitalmal |
| Abstract: | Although, the Saudi battle with terrorism is a security matter, it had been recognized from the beginning, that terrorist acts are an expression of a complex extremist ideology; a multi dimensional phenomenon . As a result the effort to fight terror can also be seen as complex and multi dimensional. In this study we develop a conceptual framework to help identify the Saudi effort to fight terrorism. This framework encompasses six elements: Security, Executive, Legislative, Judicial, Media and Intellectual Efforts. The framework could be useful to understand this case specifically, but can also apply to other more simpler cases, i.e. more direct efforts to fight terrorism. |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:467961&r=ara |
| By: | Karim El Mokri |
| Abstract: | Le Maroc est actuellement plus que jamais menacé par le piège des économies à revenu intermédiaire. Il se retrouve pris entre, d'une part, la concurrence accrue exercée par des pays à faible revenu sur les secteurs à faible productivité et intensifs en main d'œuvre et, d'autre part, la difficulté d'accélérer son rythme de transformation structurelle vers des activités à plus forte valeur ajoutée et à contenu technologique plus élevé. L'expérience internationale nous montre que rares sont les pays qui ont réussi à se hisser vers le statut d'économie avancée. Le processus de transformation structurelle peut être, en effet, entravé par plusieurs facteurs, ayant trait aux défaillances des marchés, à l'écart technologique, au manque de savoir-faire et de capital humain, à une qualité institutionnelle insuffisante, etc. Remédier à ces handicaps est souvent associé à la nécessité de conduire une politique industrielle efficace qui devrait permettre d'encourager l'investissement privé et l'orienter vers les secteurs les plus dynamiques et les plus complexes. Le but de ce policy brief ne consiste pas en effet à évaluer la nouvelle politique industrielle du Maroc et la faisabilité de ses objectifs déclarés en termes de valeur ajoutée et de création d'emploi, mais plutôt à juger de la pertinence des choix des secteurs ciblés par cette stratégie, en faisant ressortir le positionnement de ces secteurs dans l'espace-produit, ainsi que par rapport aux capacités cognitives et productives actuelles du Maroc. |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-16/27&r=ara |
| By: | Fatih Akcelik; Canan Yuksel Yucel |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye’de gida enflasyonu tuketici fiyat endeksindeki diger mal ve hizmet gruplarina kiyasla yuksek bir seyir izlemektedir. Bu notta genel fiyat seviyesine oranla gida fiyatlarinin farkli ulke gruplarindaki seyri incelenmekte ve Turkiye’ye iliskin durum tespiti yapilmaya calisilmaktadir. Veriler, Turkiye’de goreli gida fiyatlarinin Avrupa Birligi uyesi ulkelere kiyasla yuksek olduguna ve 2007-2008 kuresel gida krizi sonrasi donemde aradaki farkin acildigina isaret etmektedir. 2010 sonrasi donemde, gida enflasyonunun yuksek seyrinin yani sira oynakliginin da diger ulkelere kiyasla belirgin sekilde yuksek oldugu gozlenmektedir. [EN] Food inflation follows a higher path compared to other goods and services in Turkey. This note examines the course of food prices relative to general consumer prices in different country groups in comparison to Turkey. Data indicate that the relative food prices in Turkey are higher than that in European Union and the difference between the two increases in the period following the global food crisis of 2007-2008. In post-2010 period, the volatility of food inflation in Turkey as well as its level is significantly higher compared to other countries. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1623&r=ara |
| By: | Ibrahim Ethem Guney; Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, asgari ucret artisinin tuketici kredilerine etkisi incelenmistir. Uclu-fark yontemi ve banka duzeyinde veri kullanilarak asgari ucret bandinda isgucu gelirine sahip musteri orani yogun olan bankalarin asgari ucretli kredi musterisi dusuk oranda olan bankalara kiyasla verdigi kredi tutarlarinda Ocak 2016 sonrasinda ciddi bir artis gozlenip gozlenmedigi sorusuna cevap aranmistir. Sonuclar, tuketici kredilerinde asgari ucret artislarina bagli istatistiksel olarak anlamli ancak sinirli (aylik akim veride %10–15’lik) bir artisa isaret etmektedir. Bu artisin ozellikle ihtiyac kredilerinden kaynaklandigi tespit edilmistir. Tasit kredilerinde de anlamli bir artis gozlenmis, ancak konut kredilerinde degisim raporlanmamistir. Asgari ucret artisinin bireysel kredi karti kullanimi ve kredili mevduat hesabi uzerindeki etkileri de incelenmistir. Asgari ucret artisina bagli olarak kredili mevduat hesabi bakiyesinde belirgin bir artis goze carparken, kredilendirilen kredi karti harcamalari tarafinda herhangi bir artis gozlenmemistir. Bu cercevede, asgari ucret artisinin kisa vadede tuketici kredisi piyasalarinda son donemdeki egilimleri bozucu bir etkisinin olmadigi ortaya cikmaktadir. Soz konusu etkinin sinirli olmasinda kredilerle ilgili alinan makro-ihtiyati tedbirlerin de etkili oldugu degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] In this paper, we investigate the impact of the recent minimum wage hike on consumer loans. Using bank-level data and a triple-difference strategy, we ask whether the loans provided by banks with a high share of low-wage loan customers have increased relative to those provided by banks with a low share of low-wage loan customers after January 2016. Our results suggest that consumer credits have exhibited a limited (10–15% in terms of monthly flows) but statistically meaningful increase as a consequence of the minimum wage hike. This increase mostly comes from the increase in the general-purpose loans. Vehicle loans have also increased, while there is no change in housing loans. We also test whether the minimum wage hike has generated an increase in revolving personal credit card usage and overdraft accounts. We observe an increase in overdrafts, whereas revolving personal credit card use has not changed. Although the minimum wage hike generated an increase in the demand for consumer loans, the increase had been managable and it did not distort the recent short-term trends in consumer credits. We believe that the mild response of consumer credits to the substantial minimum wage hike is possibly due to the implementation of macro-prudential policies on consumer credits. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1625&r=ara |