nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2016‒10‒30
six papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Economic Growth, Financial Development, Urbanization and Electricity Consumption Nexus in UAE By SBIA, Rashid; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ozturk, Ilhan
  2. Analyzing and Reforming Tunisia's Tax System By James Alm
  3. Fertility Transition in Turkey Who Is Most at Risk of Deciding against Child Arrival? By Angela Greulich; Aurélien Dasre; Ceren Inan
  4. Time Series Analysis & Choices for General and Vocational Education in Arab Economies By Harkat, Tahar; Driouchi, Ahmed; Achehboune, Amale
  5. Fiscal Incidence and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Tunisia By Abebe Shimeles; Ahmed Moummi; Nizar Jouini; Nora Lustig
  6. Quality management in inclusive business: an Egyptian milk sourcing case study By Daburon, Annabelle; Alary, Véronique; Martin, Vincent; Ali, Ahmed; Osman Abdelzaher, Mona; Awad Aziz Melak, Sherif; Hosni, Taha

  1. By: SBIA, Rashid; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ozturk, Ilhan
    Abstract: This study aims to explore the relationship between economic growth, urbanization, financial development and electricity consumption in United Arab Emirates for 1975-2011 period. ARDL bounds testing approach is employed to examine long run relationship between the variables in the presence of structural breaks. The VECM Granger causality is applied to investigate the direction of causal relationship between the variables. Our empirical exercise validated the cointegration between the series in case of United Arab Emirates. Further, results reveal that inverted U-shaped relationship is found between economic growth and electricity consumption. Financial development adds in electricity consumption. The relationship between urbanization and electricity consumption is also inverted U-shaped. This implies that urbanization increases electricity consumption initially and after a threshold level of urbanization, electricity demand falls. The causality analysis finds feedback hypothesis between economic growth and electricity consumption i.e. economic growth and electricity consumption are interdependent. The bidirectional causality is found between financial development and electricity consumption. Economic growth and urbanization Granger cause each other. The feedback hypothesis is also found between urbanization and financial development, financial development and economic growth and same is true for electricity consumption and urbanization.
    Keywords: Economic growth, urbanization, electricity consumption, financial development
    JEL: C5
    Date: 2016–10–10
  2. By: James Alm (Department of Economics, Tulane University)
    Abstract: Tunisia’s tax system has undergone significant structural reforms over the last several decades. Even so, its structure exhibits some major flaws, shortcomings that spill over to and affect the performance of the overall Tunisian economy. Further, the tax system continues to underperform in some fundamental ways, ways that also affect the rest of the economy. Finally, the structure of the Tunisian tax system has some notable shortcomings. This paper discusses these issues. It presents details of the main taxes, it analyzes several main features of this tax system, and it suggests various specific tax reforms that can be introduced both in the short term and in the longer term.
    Keywords: Tunisia, tax reform
    JEL: H20 H24 H25 H87
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Angela Greulich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Aurélien Dasre (IEDUB - Institut d'Études Démographiques de l'Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4); Ceren Inan (COMPTRASEC - Centre de Droit Comparé du Travail et de la Sécurité Sociale - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In Turkey, female employment and education are still relatively low, while fertility levels are high compared with other European countries. However, Turkey stands just at the edge of an important social transition. Increasing female education and employment come along with important decreases in fertility. By mobilizing census and survey data, this paper finds that fertility decreases are mainly caused by fewer transitions to a third birth. Graduate women participating in the formal labor market are most at risk of deciding against child arrival in comparison with inactive or unemployed women. The third rank is particularly concerned, as women’s income contribution seems to be crucial for many families that already have two children, and the arrival of a third child risks reducing or stopping women’s working activities in the absence of institutional childcare support. Policies enabling women to combine work and family life, which have been proven effective in other European countries, emerge as useful to avoid a further fertility decline below replacement level in Turkey.
    Keywords: fertility, gender, Turkey
    Date: 2015–04–01
  4. By: Harkat, Tahar; Driouchi, Ahmed; Achehboune, Amale
    Abstract: Abstract: The current research focuses on the analysis of the determinants of educational choices in Arab countries using time series. This is to reveal the likely model of choice between general and vocational training in these economies. The selected theoretical framework considers that educational choices are globally influenced by education and macroeconomic variables. These include unemployment, GDP growth, and GDP per capita. The empirical analysis is based on regression, time series analysis and causality tests as inspired by the above theoretical framework. The findings show different outcomes for each of the Arab countries as such revealed decisions depend globally on the macroeconomics and performance of education in each country. These economies show that vocational education accounts differently for the macroeconomic variables while few accounts but also differently, for the schooling performance. Even with these differences that are related to signs of the effects, the monitoring of vocational education versus general training in Arab countries needs to be pursued as this allows for a more balanced educational and employment systems.
    Keywords: Keywords: Vocational education, Arab world, Time series.
    JEL: I25 J68 M54
    Date: 2016–10–27
  5. By: Abebe Shimeles (African Development Bank); Ahmed Moummi (African Development Bank); Nizar Jouini (African Development Bank); Nora Lustig (Department of Economics, Tulane University and Commitment to Equity Institute)
    Abstract: Using the National Survey of Consumption and Household Living Standards for 2010, this paper estimates the incidence of the government’s taxation and spending in Tunisia. Taking into account the impact of direct taxes and transfers, indirect taxes and subsidies and the monetized value of in- kind transfers in education and health services, the Gini coefficient falls from 0.43 (before taxes and transfers) to 0.35 (after taxes and transfers), mainly due to taxes (30% of the decrease) and in-kind services (30% of the decrease). Most of the equalization is produced by personal income taxes and contributions to social security. Direct taxes are progressive and the VAT is regressive. Cash transfers contribute little to redistribution. While direct transfers are strongly progressive and equalizing, their share in the budget remains very limited (only 0.2%). Subsidies are equalizing, though much less so than cash transfers as benefits to the non-poor are higher than their population share (i.e., subsidies are progressive but only in relative terms). Primary and secondary education are strongly redistributive and equalizing while tertiary education is progressive only in relative terms since the poor still have limited access. Health spending is progressive.
    Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal incidence, social spending, inequality, poverty, taxes, Tunisia
    JEL: H22 I38 D31
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Daburon, Annabelle; Alary, Véronique; Martin, Vincent; Ali, Ahmed; Osman Abdelzaher, Mona; Awad Aziz Melak, Sherif; Hosni, Taha
    Abstract: Worldwide, dairy products demand increases in term of quantity as well as it evolves in term of quality. Agribusiness companies consider emerging markets as new Eldorado. Some of them attempt to pump into the production of local small-scale farms through inclusive businesses (IB), often promoted in association with Non-Governmental Organization (NGO). Reaching agroindustrial quality standards is often one of the main obstacles to develop sustainable business models. Their quality management (QM) strategies often include the introduction of agricultural services (feed program, veterinary, training) and quality tests for their milk suppliers. QM is then designed based on linear product flows with little consideration for the supply chain environment: other local dairy operators or local agricultural services providers. In inclusive business, do QM strategies benefit to be limited to the supply chain connecting small farms with agro-industry? Based on an Egyptian case study, this paper aims: (i) to describe a dairy IB and the socioprofessional environment where it’s inserted using a netchain approach; (ii) to analyse the governance and social embeddedness of this netchain in a quality management perspective. Results showed a dense local socio-professional network characterized by reciprocal links. Milk Collection Centres (MCC), promoted by the project, didn’t succeed to develop this links. QM adopted by project promoters focused on vertical approach of the chain, omitting to develop reciprocal connections with the local socio-professional network. It limited the impact of the activities implemented to improve the local quality. The potential to deal with milk heterogeneity that led in this network was also neglected. To develop IB in a shared value logic, involving local socio-professional network, often also in the bottom of the pyramid, seems crucial.
    Keywords: Milk collection, Quality management, Family farms, Dairy industry, Egypt, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,
    Date: 2016

This nep-ara issue is ©2016 by Paul Makdissi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.