nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2016‒10‒23
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Arab Spring Protests and Women's Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Egyptian Revolution By Nelly El-Mallakh; Mathilde Maurel; Biagio Speciale
  2. The financial systems in Russia and Turkey: recent developments and challenges By Simone Auer; Emidio Cocozza; Andrea COlabella
  3. Estimation and prediction of an Index of Financial Safety of Tunisia By Matkovskyy, Roman; Bouraoui, Taoufik; Hammami, Helmi
  4. Taylor rule in practice: Evidence from Tunisia By Chaouech, Olfa
  5. Macroeconomic policy for employment creation in Egypt : past experience and future prospects By Haq, Tariq.; Zaki, Chahir.
  6. Urgent plan to activate the Egyptian economy : an employment impact assessment By Ernst, Christoph.; Sarabia, Marianela.
  7. Impact des réformes des politiques publiques sur les performances bancaires:Cas des banques Tunisiennes By Boussaada, Amani

  1. By: Nelly El-Mallakh (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mathilde Maurel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International - FERDI); Biagio Speciale (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of the 2011 Egyptian protests on the relative labor market conditions of women using panel information from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS). We construct our measure of intensity of the protests – the governorate-level number of “martyrs” (i.e., demonstrators who died during the protests) - using unique information from the Statistical Database of the Egyptian Revolution. We find that the 2011 protests have reduced the gender gap in labor force participation by increasing women’s unemployment and private sector employment. The political change has mostly affected the relative labor market outcomes of women in households at the bottom of the pre-revolution income distribution. We link these findings to the literature showing how a relevant shock to the labor division between women and men may have long run consequences on the role of women in society.
    Keywords: Egyptian protests, women’s labor market outcomes, “martyrs”.
    Date: 2016–04–29
  2. By: Simone Auer (Bank of Italy); Emidio Cocozza (Bank of Italy); Andrea COlabella (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: Following the severe financial crises of the 1990s and early 2000s, substantial efforts have been undertaken in Russia and Turkey to diversify and deepen the financial systems. However, despite unquestionable improvements, financial deepening in Russia and Turkey has taken place at a slower pace than in other major emerging economies. Our paper highlights that this is in part a consequence of a highly volatile economic environment and deep-seated institutional and structural bottlenecks. Though authorities in both countries have committed to sounder economic policies and have implemented important structural reforms to improve the institutional environment and overcome structural weaknesses, over time reform fatigue has gradually taken hold. As a consequence significant gaps and weaknesses in the institutional and business environments still characterize, to a different degree, Russia and Turkey. These factors have not only slowed the development of the financial system as a whole, but have also contributed to the build-up of key vulnerabilities, which have come to the fore more recently in the context of a less supportive external environment.
    Keywords: exhaustible resources, financial deepening, institutional quality, international banking, international finance, Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey
    JEL: E65 G21 O43 O57 P17 P27 P34 P52 Q32
    Date: 2016–10
  3. By: Matkovskyy, Roman; Bouraoui, Taoufik; Hammami, Helmi
    Abstract: This paper analyses the strength of the financial system of Tunisia through the construction of an Index of Financial Safety (IFS). Over the period 2000Q1 – 2014Q3, the IFS is built using a wide range of financial and macroeconomic indicators. The empirical results show that it can capture the disturbances in Tunisian financial system with sufficient accuracy. The nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm of training was selected to forecast changes in IFS, and provides significant results.
    Keywords: index of financial safety of a country; IFS; nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model; neural networks
    JEL: C1 C45 C51 C53 G10 G17
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Chaouech, Olfa
    Abstract: This paper estimates the Taylor rule under the statistical version, then the dynamic version of the Central bank of Tunisia (CBT), using monthly data from 1995 M1 to 2015 M12. The empirical results indicate that the CBT follows the Taylor rule in its dynamic version.
    Keywords: GMM Monetay Policy Taylor rule Reaction function
    JEL: E43 E51 E52
    Date: 2015–02–15
  5. By: Haq, Tariq.; Zaki, Chahir.
    Abstract: This paper by Tariq Haq and Chahir Zaki seeks to shed light on the nexus between macroeconomic policies and employment in Egypt through three approaches. First, it provides a detailed analysis of each macroeconomic policy area in Egypt and reflects on its relationship with employment creation. Second, an empirical approach is used to provide evidence of the impact of each macroeconomic policy on employment. Finally, on the basis of these analyses, the paper offers a range of pertinent policy recommendations in order to improve employment and labour market conditions in Egypt during its transition.
    Keywords: employment creation, macroeconomics, economic policy, fiscal policy, Egypt, création d'emploi, macroéconomie, politique économique, politique fiscale, Egypte, creación de empleos, macroeconomía, política económica, política fiscal, Egipto
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Ernst, Christoph.; Sarabia, Marianela.
    Abstract: This working paper should help decision-makers in the Egyptian government, but also think tanks and academia to gain a better understanding of the potential impact of the Urgent Plan.
    Keywords: employment creation, economic development, plan of action, Egypt, création d'emploi, développement économique, plan d'action, Egypte, creación de empleos, desarrollo económico, plan de acción, Egipto
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Boussaada, Amani
    Abstract: Avec la pression qu’exerce le phénomène de la mondialisation, l’Etat doit assumer sa responsabilité de mettre en place les réformes structurelles appropriées afin de corriger les imperfections du marché et garantir la relance de la croissance économique. La priorité de ces réformes inclue l’amélioration du rôle joué par le secteur financier en renforçant la réglementation bancaire. Dans cet article, nous nous concentrons sur l’examen du niveau d’efficience des banques Tunisiennes suite à l’adoption des nouvelles mesures entreprises par les autorités monétaires sur la période (2003-2013). Nos résultats empiriques montrent que les changements institutionnels et structurels dans le secteur bancaire Tunisien ont considérablement affecté le niveau de performance bancaire. En effet, cette valeur passe de 24,16% en 2003 à 48,76% en 2013. Cependant, l'efficience du coût moyen pour toutes les banques est de 35,7%. Cela implique que les banques perdent 64,3% de leur coût par rapport aux meilleures pratiques.
    Keywords: politique publique ; réformes réglementaires ; performance bancaire.
    JEL: G21 G38
    Date: 2016–08–15

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