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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that non-oil economic activity in the United Arab Emirates slowed to 3.7 percent in 2015. Negative effects on overall growth were partially offset by the increase in oil production. Despite the strong fiscal policy response to adjust to lower oil prices, the fiscal balance turned to a deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP, while the current account surplus declined to 3.3 percent of GDP. Banks remained well capitalized and liquid, though pressures on profitability are emerging as asset quality weakens owing to the economic slowdown and rising funding costs. Economic activity is expected to moderate further in 2016, before improving over the medium term. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Oil prices;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Government expenditures;Fiscal reforms;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;United Arab Emirates; |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/251&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an overview of the macroeconomic condition of Tunisia. Tunisia has managed to preserve macroeconomic stability and initiate fiscal and banking reforms in a context marked by a prolonged political transition, spillovers from the crisis in Libya, and numerous exogenous shocks, including terror attacks. However, important vulnerabilities remain: economic activity is weak, employment is low, social tensions linger, spending composition has deteriorated, and external imbalances are high. To tackle these issues, Tunisia formulated a five-year (2016–20) economic vision in 2015, which is being developed into a detailed plan. The vision aims at promoting stronger and more inclusive growth in Tunisia. |
| Keywords: | Extended Fund Facility;Fiscal reforms;Civil service;Energy sector;Public enterprises;Governance;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Economic indicators;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Extended arrangement requests;Staff Reports;Press releases;Tunisia;security, macroeconomic stability, monetary fund, banking sector, inflation |
| Date: | 2016–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/138&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | As the current Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement comes to an end in July 2016, the authorities have requested a successor arrangement. They have not drawn on the past two arrangements and have successfully reduced fiscal and external vulnerabilities in recent years. In an external environment that remains vulnerable to important downside risks, a successor arrangement would continue to insure against external risks and support the authorities’ policies to further strengthen the economy’s resilience and promote higher and more inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | Precautionary and Liquidity Line;Fiscal policy;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Letters of Intent;Extended arrangement cancellations;Extended arrangement requests;Staff Reports;Press releases;Morocco; |
| Date: | 2016–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/265&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Fiscal consolidation;Global competitiveness;Sovereign wealth funds;Public enterprises;Banking sector;Oil prices;Interest rates;Financial stability;Selected Issues Papers;United Arab Emirates; |
| Date: | 2016–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/266&r=ara |
| By: | Lisa L Kolovich; Sakina Shibuya |
| Abstract: | Gender budgeting uses fiscal policies to promote gender equality and women’s advancement, but is struggling to take hold in the Middle East and Central Asia. We provide an overview of two gender budgeting efforts in the region—Morocco and Afghanistan. Achievements in these two countries include increasing female primary and secondary education enrollment rates and reducing maternal mortality. But the region not only needs to use fiscal policies for women’s advancement, but also reform tax and financial laws, enforce laws that assure women’s safety in public, and change laws that prevent women from taking advantage of employment opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy;Morocco;Afghanistan;Middle East and Central Asia;Gender;Budgeting;Women's social conditions;Women's economic conditions;Cross country analysis;Gender budgeting; fiscal policy and administration; gender inequality; Middle East and Central Asia |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/151&r=ara |
| By: | Tamer Cetin (Yildiz Technical University); Yildirim B. Cicen (Gumushane University, Turkey); Kadir Y. Eryigit (Uludag University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether institutions matter for economic performance. For this aim, we first construct a simple framework illustrating how to examine the interaction between institutions and economic performance from a different point of view. Then, using this framework, we introduce an innovative estimation approach including cutting-edge econometric techniques so-called Johansen et al. (2000) co-integration methodology with structural breaks to empirically investigate the interaction between institutions and economic performance in Turkey. Co-integration analysis finds a long-run relationship between institutions and economic performance in the presence of structural breaks. Also, the estimate of structural breaks reveals the effect of noteworthy changes in institutional structure on investments and economic growth. The findings confirm that institutions matter for economic performance in Turkey, even though the institutional quality of the country is not satisfactory. Lastly, the results suggest that approach employed in this paper is useful and convenient to empirically investigate whether institutions matter for economic performance in the study of a country-level time-series data. |
| Keywords: | Institutions, Transaction Costs, Credible Commitment, Investments, Economic Growth. |
| JEL: | D02 D23 O43 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1610&r=ara |
| By: | Omokolade Akinsomi (School of Construction Economics and Management, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa); Yener Coskun (Capital Markets Board of Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria and IPAG Business School, Paris, France) |
| Abstract: | The study examines herding behavior in Turkish REITs (T-REITs) by using daily closing prices over the period of July 2007 to May 2016. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first study to solely examine the herding behavior in T-REITs by utilizing Chang et al. (2000) methodology. For the three sub-periods, our results indicate herding behaviors, the presence of directional asymmetry and linear relation between volatility and herding. The evidences suggest herding is a persistent phenomenon and increases during the period of market stress. Finally, we also find transitivity in volatility periods in both with/without asymmetry term models. The research draws critical implications for portfolio managers and supervisors dealing with emerging markets and T-REITs. |
| Keywords: | REIT, herd behavior, asymmetric herding, volatility, Turkey |
| JEL: | C32 G15 G11 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201666&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Iraq’s First and Second Reviews of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) and Request for a Three-Year Stand-By Arrangement. The oil price decline has resulted in a massive reduction in Iraq’s budget revenue, pushing the fiscal deficit to an unsustainable level. The authorities are responding to the crisis with a mix of necessary fiscal adjustment and financing, maintaining their commitment to the exchange rate peg. The authorities started an SMP in November 2015 to establish a track record of policy credibility and pave the way to a possible IMF financing arrangement. Their performance under the SMP has been broadly satisfactory. |
| Keywords: | Staff-monitored programs;External shocks;Oil prices;Balance of payments need;Government expenditures;Payments arrears;Banking sector;Bank restructuring;Economic indicators;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Stand-by arrangement requests;Iraq; |
| Date: | 2016–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/225&r=ara |
| By: | Driouchi, Ahmed; Harkat, Tahar |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on the relationship between knowledge, innovation, rents from natural resources and governance in world economies with focus on Arab countries. Two major analytical frameworks are used with the first based on the use of knowledge indicators while the second is on the Global Innovation index (2010-2016). Both models confirm the negative effects of rents and the positive roles of good governance, on knowledge and innovation. Arab countries appear to exhibit clearly these effects with higher emphasis on governance indicators. Also, Arab countries appear to exhibit a model that is statistically different from the one of all countries. This work complements that of Driouchi (2014a and 2014b) with the inclusion of the Global Innovation Index data 2010-2016. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Rents, natural resources, governance, knowledge economy, global innovation |
| JEL: | O1 O13 O32 Q2 Q28 |
| Date: | 2016–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73507&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Abstract: | Technical Assistance Report- Consultations on the Work of the Banking Supervision Department of the Bank of Israel |
| Keywords: | Bank supervision;Central banks;Banking systems;Technical Assistance Reports;Israel; |
| Date: | 2016–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/177&r=ara |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haidar; Seyed Hossein Mirjalili |
| Abstract: | After matching a rich micro-level Iranian customs dataset with a macro-level cross-country database on Iranian diaspora stocks, we establish that diaspora matters for dynamics of Iranian exporters. We document the extent to which Iranian emigrants foster exports through both intensive and extensive margins at the micro-level. We show that destinations with more emigrants from Iran attract more Iranian exporters and allow them to survive longer and grow faster. One plausible explanation is that the diaspora channel reduces the fixed cost of exporting that Iranian exporters incur to enter a destination, those related to creating distribution channels, and those associated with learning about market demand. Our results add firm-level insight to the burgeoning literature on the channels through which emigration could impact economic integration. As Iran is now trying to integrate more with the global economy, these results suggest that Iranian embassies across the world have a role to play in bridging the gap between Iranian diaspora and exporters through trade promotion exhibitions and workshops to encourage greater trade between Iran and the rest of the world. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:449876&r=ara |
| By: | Padamja Khandelwal; Ken Miyajima; Andre O Santos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, it finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices;Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf;Banking sector;Non-performing loans;Bank capital;Panel analysis;Vector autoregression;Econometric models;Macro-financial linkages, nonperforming loans, panel vector autoregression |
| Date: | 2016–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/161&r=ara |