|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | [EN] This note evaluates the forecast performance of the financial variables and confidence indicators for four quarter ahead cumulative growth of Turkish GDP. Our results point out that some indicators can help reduce forecast errors relative to a benchmark, but forecast performance of the variables may change over time. Combining forecasts with equal weight or based on the recent performance does not lead to a significant difference in forecast performance. [TR] Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisi icin finansal degiskenler ile guven endekslerinin dort ceyrek birikimli GSYIH buyumesi tahmin performanslari degerlendirilmistir. Sonuclar, incelenen degiskenlerin bazilarinin baz bir modele gore tahmin hatalarini dusurdugunu ancak tahmin performansinin zaman icinde degisebildiðini gostermektedir. Tahmin birlestirmesi icin tahminlerin esit agirliklandirilmasi ile son donem performanslarina gore agirliklandirilmasi arasinda onemli bir fark gorulmemistir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1614&r=ara |
| By: | Binnur Balkan Konuk; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | We exploit the regional variation in the unexpected (or forced) inflow of Syrian refugees as a natural experiment to estimate the impact of immigration on consumer prices in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy and a comprehensive data set on the regional prices of CPI items, we find that general level of consumer prices has declined by approximately 2.5 percent due to immigration. Prices of goods and services have declined in similar magnitudes. We highlight that the channel through which the price declines take place is the informal labor market. Syrian refugees supply inexpensive informal labor and, thus, substitute the informal native workers especially in informal labor intensive sectors. We document that prices in these sectors have fallen by around 4 percent, while the prices in the formal labor intensive sectors have almost remained unchanged. Increase in the supply of informal immigrant workers generates labor cost advantages and keeps prices lower in the informal labor intensive sectors. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Consumer prices, Syrian refugees, Natural experiment, Informal employment |
| JEL: | C21 E31 J46 J61 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1601&r=ara |
| By: | Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | The 1997 reform in Turkey which extended compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years provides an opportunity to estimate the returns to schooling in a middle-income country. The availability of a rich set of early labor market variables also provides an opportunity to assess mechanisms through which returns to schooling occur. I find quite small effects of compulsory schooling on earnings of men but large positive effects on earnings of women who work, without raising their overall low rate of labor force participation. In terms of mechanisms, I find that women who worked moved into higher skill and formal sector jobs, which involved more complicated tasks on average. I propose that differential marginal costs of schooling explain the low average schooling level among women before the reform and the very different outcomes of the reform for men and women. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education, Compulsory schooling, Occupational choice |
| JEL: | I21 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1534&r=ara |
| By: | Glick, Peter; Kammash, Umaiyeh; Shaheen, Mohammed; Brown, Ryan Andrew; Goutam, Prodyumna; Karam, Rita; Linnemayr, Sebastian; Massad, Salwa |
| Abstract: | Very little is known about youth health risk behaviors such as drug and alcohol use and sexual activity in the Middle East and North Africa, and in the Occupied Palestinian Territories specifically. This lack of information, together with a lack of open discussion of these topics, leaves public health authorities in the region unprepared to deal with emerging public health threats at a time when major social and economic changes are increasing the risks that young men and women face. The Palestinian Youth Health Risk Study was designed to address these gaps in knowledge. It is the first in the region to collect large scale, representative survey data from youth on key risk behaviors (smoking, alcohol and drug use, and sexual activity as well as interpersonal violence). The study investigates the prevalence and patterns of these risk behaviors as well as of mental health, perceptions of the risks of such behaviors, and the factors increasing vulnerability to as well as protection from engagement in them. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1119-1&r=ara |
| By: | Yavuz Arslan; Gazi Kabas; Ahmet Ali Taskin |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of loan-to-value restriction on automobile loans using primary market car sales in Turkey. We identify the effect of the policy using the specific nature of the regulation that imposes higher downpayment restriction for automobile loans with higher prices. We observe that the drop in automobile sales growth is higher for more expensive cars net of other controlled factors. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy, Loan-to-value policy, Automobile loans, Car sales |
| JEL: | G21 G28 E44 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1535&r=ara |
| By: | Betz, Frank; Ravasan, Farshad R. |
| Abstract: | The economies in the Middle East and North Africa have not been able to generate a sufficient number of jobs for a fast growing population. This paper uses data from the MENA Enterprise Survey to investigate the extent to which prevailing collateral practices affect the allocation of credit and firms' ability to expand and create jobs. Using matched bank-firm data to recover banks' collateral policies and exploiting data on the location of firms and bank branches, the paper aggregates the estimated collateral policies into branch-weighted indices that represent collateral practices at the local level. We find that less stringent collateral regimes are conducive to employment growth. Young firms in particular benefit from lower collateral ratios, while a greater willingness to accept movables benefits both young and old firms. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eibwps:201603&r=ara |
| By: | Ghassan, Hassan B.; Alhajhoj, Hassan R. |
| Abstract: | The paper aims to examine the relationship, whether complementary or substitutive, between inward FDI and gross domestic investment in the six GCC countries using cointegration techniques and fully modified GMM estimation. Based on the panel data, the empirical evidence implies that in Qatar, Oman, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the inward FDI has positive short-run and long-run effects on the domestic investment. For Bahrain, such a complementary relationship exists only in the short-run. For the majority of GCC countries, the long-run elasticities have large magnitude compared to the short-run counterparts, justifying more attraction policy of the IFDI in the future. The gap in the privatization process of public enterprises in the GCC explains in a large extent their heterogeneity in terms of elasticities and spillovers effects. |
| Keywords: | FDI, Domestic investment, GMM, Long-run Elasticities, GCC. |
| JEL: | C5 F2 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72668&r=ara |
| By: | Mustafa Utku Ozmen |
| Abstract: | Measuring markups in the services sector is a difficult task. For the case of restaurants, although the sales price is observed, cost of the product served is unobserved. Here we employ an intuitive framework and focus specifically on markups on soft drinks. This is reasonable in two ways: First, there is no quality bias as we consider the relative price of canned soft drinks served at restaurants compared to those sold in supermarkets. Second, beverages are considered as an important source of profit for restaurants. We analyze the determinants of markups on soft drinks in restaurants in Turkey over the 2006-2014 period. Results suggest that current demand and cyclical conditions (net minimum wage, output gap), major cost items (food and energy prices, exchange rate) and economic uncertainty (measured as exchange rate volatility) significantly affect markups. This identification strategy enables the detection of relevant factors which may not be possible to identify otherwise. |
| Keywords: | Restaurant services, Markup, Minimum wage, Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 D22 E31 L11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1602&r=ara |
| By: | Ibrahim Ethem Guney; Oguzhan Cepni |
| Abstract: | [EN] There is a long discussion among academics and central bankers about the theories of money supply. According to the exogenous view, central banks have full control over money supply via policy actions including the adjustments of interest rates and reserve ratios, both of which alter commercial banks’ lending decisions. However, the theory of endogenous money supply emphasizes the role of demand for bank loans in money creation. More specifically, banks create money by meeting the demand of economic agents. In this study, we investigate which of the money supply theories holds in the Turkish economy for the period 2006-2015 by employing cointegration and causality tests. Our findings show that the relation runs from bank loans to money supply both in the short and long terms, which supports the endogenous view in a sense that central bank and the banks fully meet the total demand for money in the Turkish economy. [TR] Akademisyenler ve merkez bankacilari icinde para arzi teorileri ile ilgili uzun suredir devam eden bir tartisma bulunmaktadir. Dissal bakis acisina gore, merkez bankalari ticari bankalarin borc verme kararlari uzerinde etkili olan faiz ve rezerv oranindaki degisiklikleri iceren politika adimlari ile para arzi uzerinde tam kontrole sahiptir. Ancak, para arzinin icselligi teorisi para olusturmada banka kredilerine olan talebin rolunu vurgulamaktadir. Diger bir deyisle, bankalar iktisadi ajanlarin taleplerini karsilayarak para olusturmaktadir. Bu calismada, esbutunlesme ve nedensellik testleri kullanilarak 2006-2015 yillarý arasinda Turkiye ekonomisi icin hangi para arzi teorisinin gecerli oldugu incelenmektedir. Bulgularimiz, hem kisa hem de uzun vadelerde nedenselligin banka kredilerinden para arzina dogru oldugunu gosterdiginden, Turkiye ekonomisinde Merkez Bankasi ve bankalarin toplam para talebini karsiladigi ve para arzinin icsel oldugu goruslerini desteklemektedir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1619&r=ara |
| By: | Timur Hulagu; Erdi Kizilkaya; Ali Gencay Ozbekler; Pinar Tunar |
| Abstract: | In the 2010Q1-2015Q1 period, housing prices increased 78.8 percent in Turkey, which raises a need to monitor the housing market dynamics carefully. This increase is widespread across the country where prices have even doubled in some regions. Our study performs a hedonic price adjustment for the housing market in Turkey, where we control for the price effects of improvements in observed house characteristics in time. Results show significant increases in the quality of houses sold, which in turn suggests that attributing all the price increase to a real appreciation may be misleading. In particular, we estimate that one fourth of nominal changes and one half of relative changes in house prices stem from quality improvements in general. |
| Keywords: | House price index, Hedonic regression, Characteristic price approach, Quality adjusted price index |
| JEL: | C32 C43 R31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1603&r=ara |
| By: | Verme,Paolo |
| Abstract: | The paper takes stock of eight country studies and a cross-country analysis to review the experience with subsidy reforms in the Middle East and North Africa region between 2010 and 2014. This unprecedented period of subsidy reforms occurred during a period of extraordinary political changes, which makes this particular experience unique. The paper reviews the facts and the different paths to reforms taken by different countries faced with different challenges, and discusses the pros and cons of alternative policy options. It concludes with an assessment of the experiences and a discussion on future prospects. |
| Date: | 2016–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7754&r=ara |
| By: | Tugrul Gurgur; Zubeyir Kilinc |
| Abstract: | Both the empirical and theoretical literature examines the significance of ‘willingness to buy’ channel in household’s consumption decision. It suggests that the consumer confidence might carry valuable information to robustly predict consumption. It also emphasizes its power while explaining consumption particularly in times of high economic and political uncertainty. In this study we initially examine the drivers of the consumer confidence in a major developing economy, namely Turkey. We show that consumer prices, exchange rate, interest rates on consumer loans and unemployment rate are the major drivers of the confidence. We then find that consumers are asymmetric in their responses to the changes in these variables. In particular, our results show that the consumer confidence is more responsive to currency depreciation than currency appreciation and more responsive to slowdown in inflation than acceleration in inflation. Besides, the relative importance of macroeconomic and financial variables in shaping the consumer confidence is not stable as the latter gains more weight when financial volatility rises. Finally, we show that political uncertainty, such as elections have an important influence over the consumer confidence that goes beyond their impact on macroeconomic and financial variables. |
| Keywords: | Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Consumer Confidence, Error Correction Model, Pesaran Bounds Testing, Structural Break Test and Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 C52 D12 E21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1538&r=ara |
| By: | Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | [EN] In this note, we compare performance of direct and bottom-up approaches to forecasting Turkish GDP growth. In the bottom-up approach, we forecast each component separately and then aggregate these forecasts to reach GDP growth forecast. In the direct approach, we model and forecast GDP growth itself. Results indicate that bottom-up approach helps reduce forecast errors. Importance of the bottom-up approach becomes more evident when we take into account the storytelling dimension of forecasting. [TR] Bu calismada, milli gelir tahmini icin dogrudan ve dolayli yaklasimlarin performanslari karsilastirilmaktadir. Dolayli yaklasimda milli gelirin alt kalemleri ayri ayri tahmin edilip, bu tahminlerin birlestirilmesiyle milli gelir buyume tahmini olusturulmaktadir. Dogrudan yaklasimda ise milli gelir buyumesinin kendisi modellenmekte ve tahmin edilmektedir. Sonuclar, dolayli yaklasimin tahmin hatalarini azalttigini gostermektedir. Tahminlerin salt rakam sunmaktan ziyade iktisadi bir oyku anlatmak icin de kullanildigi dikkate alindiginda, daha kapsamli analiz yapmaya imkan veren dolayli yaklasimin onemi belirginlesmektedir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1622&r=ara |
| By: | Cortina Lorente,Juan Jose; Ismail,Soha Ismail Ahmed Aly; Schmukler,Sergio L. |
| Abstract: | This paper documents how firms in Arab countries issue equity, corporate bonds, and syndicated loans in domestic and international markets to obtain financing and grow. Using a new data set on issuance activity and firm performance, the paper finds that capital raising through these markets has grown rapidly since the early 1990s and involved an increasing number of issuing firms. Whereas the amounts raised (relative to gross domestic product) in equity and loan markets stand well with respect to international standards, bond issuance activity lags behind. Yet, bond financing has gained importance over time. Equity issuances primarily take place domestically, while bonds and loans are mostly issued internationally, display long maturities, and entail low levels of credit risk. Issuing firms are larger, grow faster, and are more leveraged than non-issuers. While issuers tend to be larger ex ante than non-issuers, the size gap between them seems to widen over time. |
| Date: | 2016–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7756&r=ara |
| By: | Ayse Eliusuk (Konya Necmettin Erbakan Universty Education Faculty) |
| Abstract: | Seligman’s “well-being measure†called PERMA is a measure that lays off five components of a person’s level of being well. It was developed by Kern (2015). The measurement evaluates people’s level of well-being in five dimensions: They are as follows: (P: Positive and Negative emotions), (E: Engagement), (R: Relationships), (M: Meaning), (A: Accomplishment). The measurement consists of 23 articles. There is a ranging of grades from 0 to 10. The coefficiency of internal consistency of the measurement is .82.The measurement of PERMA was applied on a group of university students. Some translation texts (from English to Turkish/from Turkish to English) were given to the students in the department of ELT and was intended to find out the meaningful positive corelations between low and high points (r=.95, p |
| Keywords: | Well-being, positive ve negative emotions, engagement, relationships, meaning and accomplishment, the measurement of well-being, reliability and validity |
| JEL: | I30 I30 I30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:itepro:3906546&r=ara |
| By: | Vuslat Us |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of the global crisis on the determinants of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Empirical findings suggest that non-performing loans present persistence, which is more evident after the crisis, while other regressors have also persistent effects in the post-crisis period. Moreover, non-performing loans are mostly shaped by bank-specific variables before the crisis, whereas, after the crisis, non-performing loans are also driven by macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In particular, the post-crisis significance of GDP, policy rate and sovereign debt shows that robust economic activity, tight monetary policy and strong fiscal balances restrict non-performing loans, thereby enhancing financial stability. On the other hand, the significance of inflation in both sub-periods indicates that commitment to price stability objective is indispensable for limiting non-performing loans and promoting financial stability. In the period ahead, the speed and the direction of normalization in global monetary policies may determine the course of financial conditions, which therefore have implications regarding non-performing loan dynamics and financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Global crisis, Non-performing loans, Turkish banking sector, Dynamic panel estimation, Persistence, Financial stability, Price stability, Normalization |
| JEL: | C23 E44 E52 G10 G21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1612&r=ara |
| By: | Ihsan Bozok; Bahar Sen Dogan; Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we employ panel time-series methods Dynamic OLS, Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group to estimate the long-run price and income elasticities of Turkish exports to country groups categorized by geographical regions (EU27, other European countries, Asia, Middle East and North Africa (MENA)) and development levels (developed and developing). In doing so, we use bilateral trade data of Turkey with 67 countries over the period 2005Q1-2013Q4. We find that price and income elasticities vary across country groups. Income elasticity estimates are statistically significant in every country group classification and range between 1.82 and 3.35. Exports to the EU27, other European and the developed countries have higher income responsiveness. On the other hand, price elasticity ranges between -1.56 and -0.27 and is found statistically significant only in exports to the EU27, the MENA and the developing countries. Empirical results imply that region-specific measures have to be taken in trade policy design. In addition, policies based on real exchange rate depreciation would have fewer roles in boosting exports, whereas sustainable growth in trading partners is a more crucial factor to achieve sustainable growth in Turkish exports. |
| Keywords: | Panel data, Time-Series, Elasticity, Cross-Dependence, Mean group estimation, Common correlated effects |
| JEL: | C23 F14 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1526&r=ara |
| By: | Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer; Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of minimum wages on the labor market outcomes in Turkey using the sizable minimum wage increase in 2004. Utilizing a quasi-experimental approach we provide new evidence from a developing country where the minimum wage is binding to a great extent. The increase took place in a period of strong economic growth and cost to the employer was partially subsidized by the government. Our results suggest that minimum wage increase of 2004 compressed the wage distribution from below. Using degree of impact measures we estimate that a 1 percent surge in the minimum wage increased wages by an extra 0.22-0.35 percent. Wage response was lower for informally working, low educated and young employees. Higher minimum wage was accompanied by an increase in the likelihood of informal employment. The minimum wage increase did raise working hours, suggesting that firms may have tried to offset part of the increase in the labor cost by increasing employment at the intensive margin. Estimations do not point out to an adverse impact for the overall employment. But due to data limitations results on employment are less robust. Furthermore, looking at the impact of minimum wages on the formal and informal divide, our results do not support the predictions of the dual market hypothesis on wages. We observe wage increase not only for the formal but also for the informal employees pointing out to the presence of a "lighthouse" effect previously documented for some other developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, Turkey, Difference in differences, Informality |
| JEL: | J31 J42 R23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1614&r=ara |
| By: | Selen Baser Andic |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates a normalized constant elasticity of substitution production function for Turkey using the data between 1991-2014. Employing a system approach, the elasticity of substitution, direction of the technical change and total factor productivity are determined. The results indicate that elasticity of substitution is around 0.8 and significantly below unity in Turkey. The dynamics of the technical progresses of inputs signal a slowing productivity growth in labour, and a falling productivity in capital. These findings imply that in Turkey, the average growth of the total factor productivity is very low, if not zero, and labour-augmenting technical progress is slightly dominant over time. |
| Keywords: | CES function, Elasticity of substitution, Technical change, Factor shares, Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 E23 E25 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1613&r=ara |
| By: | Ramazan Karasahin; Doruk Kucuksarac |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of capital structure of non-financial public firms quoted in Borsa Istanbul. We explore the effects of firm-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic variables on book and market leverages by employing panel data. In addition, we study the effects of these variables on short-term and long-term leverage ratios. The results indicate that firm-specific factors have similar effects on both book and market leverage ratios except the effect of growth opportunity. The size of a firm is positively associated with its leverage ratio, particularly with long-term leverage ratio. Tangibility is negatively related to the short-term leverage ratio whereas it is positively related to the long-term leverage ratio. Profitability and liquidity have negative effects on leverage, particularly on short-term leverage ratio. It is also observed that the firms tend to follow their peers in their capital structure decisions. The effect of macroeconomic variables is somewhat more ambiguous. There seems to be positive association between inflation and leverage. On the other hand, firm leverage and economic growth are negatively related. Lastly, recursive panel regression methods show that the evolution of the parameter estimates are stable over time. |
| Keywords: | Leverage, Capital structure, Nonfinancal firms |
| JEL: | G32 G30 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1609&r=ara |
| By: | Eda Karademir (Erzurum Technical University, Department of Philosophy); Alper Karademir (Aksaray University, Department of Politics and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The issue of child labour can be encountered in almost every country. However, the issue currently has been growing particularly in developing countries. In relation to this subject, not only governments but also supranational organizations such as the ILO, UNICEF and EU take place in order to eliminate child labour. Even sometimes, projects are developed so as to be implemented by various countries and governments are orientated for the implementation of these projects, financial support and/or every so often qualified experts are provided, some countries are forced through a variety of sanctions in order to solve the problem by these organizations. At this point, the status of a candidate country to the European Union Turkey emerges as a striking example. Besides, Turkey is determined for this work because ILO's and IPEC program implemented in Turkey from 1990 to 2007. In addition, the example of Turkey is selected to examine the issue since the period of compulsory education was increased from 5 years to 8 years by changing the education policy of compulsory education in 1997. Furthermore, the period of compulsory education has been gradually increased to 12 years in 2013 in Turkey. However, this is outside of this paper since data is provided as quinquennially, thus, working data is not available to approach to the issue. This may be considered in another study. According to literature and ILO's reports, education policies should be intended for reducing child labour. Education policies such as starting primary education at a certain age and the continuum of this education performed by governments have been accepted as precautions aimed at reducing child labour. The aim of this paper is to elucidate whether this increased period of compulsory education can be one of the main element to eliminate child labour. In this context, the general conditions of child labour will be evaluated in this work by comparing the period 1994 that is before the increase compulsory education from 5 years to 8 years and observed data after this changed education policy. As methodology, secondary data obtained from previous statistical and published reports is used. Gaining a new source of literature in this field is attempted by using the example of Turkey. Consequently, the effect of the increased period of compulsory education will be investigated to reduce child labour by analysing results. In this context, also encountered problems and solutions to these problems will be presented. |
| Keywords: | Education policy, Compulsory education, the Child Labour Issue, Turkey |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:itepro:3906487&r=ara |
| By: | Yavuz Arslan; Yunus Emrah Bulut; Tayyar Buyukbasaran; Gazi Kabas |
| Abstract: | With a novel dataset of over two thousand firms covering 2006-2012 period, this study examines liquidity management of non-financial firms in Turkey. We find the following results: First, cash holdings and lines of credits are complementary if the profits are low or cash holdings are small, while they become substitutes if profits are high or cash holdings are large. Second, firms with more available funds (cash plus unused credit lines) invest more than the others; moreover, given the same amount of available funds, those firms which hold more cash make more investment. Third, firms with small cash holdings prefer unused credit lines to cash when they get more profitable; whereas firms with large cash holdings prefer cash to unused credit lines when they get more profitable. Fourth, we find evidence of nonlinearities regarding the determinants of cash holdings and credit limits. Finally, our analysis also includes the effects of aggregate financial uncertainty on liquidity management, and it discriminates between holdings of local currency denominated and foreign currency denominated credit limits. Our study is the first one to examine liquidity management of firms in an emerging economy, and bears some critical differences with the findings of earlier studies. |
| Keywords: | Credit Lines, Cash holdings, Liquidity Management |
| JEL: | G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1604&r=ara |
| By: | Suleyman Hilmi Kal; Ferhat Arslaner; Nuran Arslaner |
| Abstract: | Some recent studies indicate that exchange rate pass-through and import price pass-through is better characterized in a non-linear way. Having a better understanding of non-linearity of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and import prices pass-through (IPPT) under different conditions will contribute to the critical decisions on the proper role and magnitude of the exchange rate movements in the monetary policy. In this paper, we implement a state based non-linear method (Markov process) to identify, decompose, quantify and analyze the nonlinearities for both types of concurrent (same period) pass-through for the years between 2003 and 2014 for the Turkish economy. According to the results, both ERPT and IPPT are lower during appreciation and low volatility periods of nominal exchange rate. Even though ERPT does not differ depending on the level of business activity, IPPT is lower during contractionary periods compared to expansionary periods. The findings in this paper will allow for more nuanced monetary policy approaches to deal with pass-through stemming from different sources. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetry, Non-linearity, Inflation targeting, Pass-through of exchange rate and import price, Volatility, Markov switching regression |
| JEL: | C22 C52 E52 E58 F31 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1530&r=ara |
| By: | Cevriye Aysoy; Duygu Halim Kirli; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | The market for fresh food is often characterized by a large number of intermediaries delivering the product from the farmer to the retailer. The existence of these intermediaries, especially the informal ones, is often claimed to introduce market frictions that push fresh food prices up. We test the hypothesis that scaling down these frictions reduces the level of prices. Our data come from a policy reform in Turkey concerning the supply chain regulations in the market for fresh fruits and vegetables. Starting from January 1st, 2012, a new law is enacted (i) to remove informal intermediaries, (ii) to reduce the farmers' cost of access to formal intermediaries such as wholesale market places, and (iii) to provide the farmers with the option to directly sell their products to retailers—bypassing the wholesale intermediaries. This policy reform resembles a natural experiment that exogenously reduces the supply chain barriers in the market for fresh fruits and vegetables. Using quasi-experimental methods, we show that the policy reform has strikingly reduced the prices in the wholesale market. We also provide some rough evidence that there is no price effect in the retail market, which suggests that part of the wholesale markups may have been transferred to the retailers. Taken at face value, these results provide some hints that consumers have not received any direct benefits from the reform—ignoring the general equilibrium effects. |
| Keywords: | Supply chain reform, Fresh food prices, Incomplete pass-through, Quasi-experimental design. |
| JEL: | C21 L52 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1528&r=ara |
| By: | Tunc, Cengiz; Kılınç, Mustafa |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we look at the sector-level asymmetric effects of the monetary policy shocks on economic activity in Turkey. Using business cycles for the state of the economy, we find that monetary policy shocks have strong effects on both aggregate GDP, services and industrial production and sub-sectors during recessionary periods. The results are weaker for the expansionary periods. We further study whether the results depend on the state of the credit cycles. Similar results emerge in that the monetary policy is more effective during credit slowdowns with economically more feasible quantitative effects compared to the business cycles. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Transmission, Markov Switching Models, Business Cycles, Credit Cycles. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72688&r=ara |
| By: | Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | [EN] In this study, we aim to estimate the impact of temperature related abnormal weather conditions on Industrial Production Index (IPI) in Turkey. In doing so, we augment monthly average temperature net of seasonal norms into the seasonal adjustment process as an additional regressor. The results show that temperature related effects distort the standard seasonal adjustment of IPI series. The extent to which weather conditions affect IPI is heterogeneous and even asymmetrical across main industrial sectors. While the deviations during the winter take negative values for the manufacturing industry, it takes positive values for electricity production. Finally, weather and seasonal adjusted IPI series are found to be smoother and the monthly changes are less volatile. [TR] Bu calismada, sicaklik kaynakli olagan disi hava kosullarinin Turkiye’de Sanayi Uretim Endeksi (SUE) uzerindeki etkileri tahmin edilmeye calisilmistir. Bu kapsamda aylik ortalama sicakliklarin mevsim ortalamalarindan farki ek bir degisken olarak SUE’nin mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirma islemine dahil edilmistir. Sonuclar, normalden farkli sicaklik seviyelerinin SUE’nin standart yontemlerle mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirilmasini bozdugunu gostermektedir. Sicaklik sartlarinin SUE’yi etkileme derecesi, SUE’yi olusturan ana sektorler arasinda asimetri ve heterojenlik gostermektedir. Imalat sanayinde kis aylarina iliskin tahmin edilen katsayilar eksi degerler alirken, elektrik uretimi icin arti deger almaktadir. Son olarak, hava, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirilmis SUE serisinin mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirilmis SUE serisinden daha puruzsuz, aylik degisimlerinin ise daha az oynak oldugu bulunmustur. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1611&r=ara |
| By: | Hassan B. Ghassan; Hassan R. Alhajhoj |
| Abstract: | The paper aims to examine the relationship, whether complementary or substitutive, between inward FDI and gross domestic investment in the six GCC countries using cointegration techniques and fully modified GMM estimation. Based on the panel data, the empirical evidence implies that in Qatar, Oman, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the inward FDI has positive short-run and long-run effects on the domestic investment. For Bahrain, such a complementary relationship exists only in the short-run. For the majority of GCC countries, the long-run elasticities have large magnitude compared to the short-run counterparts, justifying more attraction policy of the IFDI in the future. The gap in the privatization process of public enterprises in the GCC explains in a large extent their heterogeneity in terms of elasticities and spillovers effects. |
| Keywords: | FDI, Domestic investment, GMM, Long-run Elasticities, GCC. |
| JEL: | F2 C5 |
| Date: | 2016–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2016_16&r=ara |
| By: | Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | In this paper we backcast Turkish GDP growth with bridge equations. In the backcasting models, we consider indicators from production, international trade, consumer and firm surveys, employment, inflation and real exchange rate. We use a systematic search process for finding the combination of variables in the bridge equations that make the least backcast error in the period under investigation. We find that using information from different blocks of data in a bridge equation improves backcasting performance. Our results points out to the importance of using timeliness advantage of soft indicators, such as PMI, effectively. Similar to other studies in the literature, average of backcasts of models makes less backcast error than individual models. |
| Keywords: | GDP Forecasting, Bridge Equations, Forecast Combination |
| JEL: | C22 E37 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1533&r=ara |
| By: | Araar,Abdelkrim; Verme,Paolo |
| Abstract: | The paper compares the distribution of energy and food subsidies across households and the impact of subsidy reforms on household welfare in the Middle East and North Africa region. The analysis uses a unified model and harmonized household data. The results show that the distribution of subsidies and the welfare effects of subsidy reforms are quite diverse across countries and products. Energy subsidies tend to be pro-rich in terms of absolute amounts, but tend to be more important for the poor in terms of expenditure shares. Instead, food subsidies are larger for the poor in absolute and relative terms. These findings do not apply everywhere, and the scale of these phenomena are different across countries and products. The welfare effect of a 30 percent reduction in subsidies can be important, especially considering the cumulated effect across products, but the cost of compensating the loss in welfare for the poor is generally low compared with the budget benefits of decreasing subsidies. |
| Date: | 2016–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7755&r=ara |
| By: | Bahar Sen Dogan; Murat Midilic |
| Abstract: | This study generates nowcasts and forecasts for the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Turkey using 204 daily financial series with Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework over the period 2010Q2-2015Q1. Our findings suggest that MIDAS regression models and forecast combinations provide advantage in exploiting information from daily financial data compared to the models using simple aggregation schemes. In addition, incorporating daily financial data into the analysis improves our forecasts substantially. These results indicate that both the information content of the financial data and the flexible data-driven weighting scheme of MIDAS regressions play an essential role in forecasting the future state of the Turkish economy. |
| Keywords: | Real GDP Growth, Forecasting, MIDAS |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G10 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1611&r=ara |
| By: | Ozgur Ozel; Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Erdal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | Global financial markets have experienced a liquidity glut since the beginning of the new millennium especially in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. In this era, the flow of foreign funds to emerging markets have elevated, somewhat more to Turkey. This flow increased foreign investor holdings in emerging markets. This study puts forward the increased share of foreign investors as a potential stabilizer for local financial markets, because domestic investors’ weak absorption capacity may create liquidity constraints acting as an obstacle for foreign outflows. In order to pin down the effect of foreign investor dominance, we present empirical evidence from a detailed stock-ownership data. The detailed micro level data not only helps us unveil the behavior of foreign investors, but also helps us to discuss macroeconomic implications of their micro level decisions. In addition, given that the foreigner’s recent share in Turkish equity market is considerably high both from an historical viewpoint and from a cross section comparison with other emerging markets, the conclusions we reach regarding the market stabilization effect of foreigner share are unique. Overall, in an emerging market with high foreign ownership and low domestic absorption capacity at play, capital outflows might be staggered, rather than sudden. |
| Keywords: | Capital outflows, Staggered adjustment, Liquidity constraint, Absorption capacity, Foreigner effect |
| JEL: | C58 E44 F32 G11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1531&r=ara |
| By: | Babili, Mahmoud; Al Somaya, Khitam; Badro, Bashar |
| Abstract: | يهدف هذا البحث إلى إلقاء الضوء على المركز التنافسى للصادرات السورية من البندورة فى السوق العراقي والروسي باستخدام مؤشر التنافسية المركب |
| Keywords: | مؤشر التنافسية المركب، سوريا، البندورة (الطماطم), Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:napcwp:241346&r=ara |
| By: | Mahir Binici; Hakan Kara; Pinar Ozlu |
| Abstract: | Geleneksel faiz koridoru sistemlerinde merkez bankalari para politikasini tek bir politika faizi uzerinden yurutmekte ve bankalarin kisa vadeli fonlama maliyetinin bu faize yakin gerceklesmesini saglamaktadir. Ote yandan, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) 2010 yilinin sonlarindan itibaren finansal oynakliga vakitli tepki verebilmek amaciyla sira disi bir faiz koridoru ve fonlama politikasi uygulamistir. Bu dogrultuda, TCMB’nin piyasaya sagladigi kisa vadeli fonlarin kompozisyonu yuksek frekanslarda degistirilerek gerekli gorulen donemlerde piyasa faizlerinin TCMB fonlama faizinden ve ilan edilen resmi faizlerden sapmasi tercih edilmistir. Konvansiyonel olmayan bu yaklasimda, para politikasinin finansal sistemle etkilesimi de klasik faiz koridoru uygulamasina kiyasla daha karmasik bir yapi almaktadir. Bu calisma, anilan donemde para politikasi durusunun ve parasal aktarim mekanizmasinin daha iyi anlasilmasina katkida bulunmayi amaclamaktadir. Calismada ozellikle sira disi koridor politikasi kapsaminda merkez bankasi tarafindan ilan edilen faizler (resmi faizler) ile bankalarin fiiliyatta maruz kaldiklari faizler (fiili faizler) arasindaki farklilasmanin parasal aktarim mekanizmasi acisindan yansimalari ele alinmaktadir. Bu dogrultuda, oncelikle TCMB’nin uyguladigi faiz koridoru politikasinin operasyonel cercevesi basit bir gosterimle sunularak para politikasinin etki alanindaki faizlerin bankalar acisindan onemi degerlendirilmektedir. Daha sonra da panel tahmin yontemleri ile banka bazinda akim veriler kullanilarak kredi ve mevduat faizleri ile para politikasi faizleri arasindaki iliski incelenmektedir. Bulgularýmiza gore, para politikasinin bankacilik sistemine aktarimi acisindan resmi faizlerden ziyade fiili faizler one cikmaktadir. Ozellikle bankalararasi gecelik piyasada olusan faizin kredi ve mevduat fiyatlamasinda belirleyici rol oynadigi gözlenmektedir. |
| Keywords: | Para politikasi aktarim mekanizmasi, Faiz kanali, Kredi kanali, Turkiye |
| JEL: | E44 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1608&r=ara |
| By: | Koray Alper; Mehmet Selman Colak; Ertan Tok |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada Turk bankacilik sektorunde sermaye yeterliligi, karlilik ve kredi buyumesi arasindaki iliski matematiksel olarak ifade edilerek, degiskenler arasinda uzun ve kisa donemli etkilesimler niceliksel olarak irdelenmektedir. Analizler, uzun donemde yuksek SYR ve gorece hizli bir kredi buyumesinin bir arada gerceklesmesine imkan verecek karlilik oranlarinin mevcut oranlardan bir miktar daha yuksek olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ote yandan, sektorun mevcut sermaye tamponlarinin guclu bir kredi buyumesini, karlilik oranlarinin toparlanmasina uzunca bir sure taniyabilecek olcude saglam oldugu degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] This study aims to mathematically express the relationship among capital adequacy, profitability, and credit growth in Turkish banking sector and to investigate quantitatively the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relations among these variables. The results demonstrate that profitability levels that would enable banks to sustain high credit growth and high capital adequacy rates in the long run are slightly higher than the current levels. However, current capital buffers are large enough to give a considerable time for profitability rates to recover while supporting relatively strong credit growth rates. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1618&r=ara |
| By: | Huseyin Murat Ozbilgin |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma son donemde kamu yatirimlarinin tamamlanma suresinde gozlemlenen kisalmanin sosyal refah uzerine yaptigi etkiyi olcmeyi amaclamaktadir. Bu amac dogrultusunda kamu yatirimlarinin kamu sermaye stokuna donusmesinin zaman aldigi bir reel is cevrimleri modeli insa edilmistir. Modele göre Turkiye ekonomisinin yakin donem tecrubesindeki gibi kamu yatirimlarinin tamamlanma suresinin yaklasik 9 yildan 4 yila dusurulmesi uzun vadeli etkiler gerceklestiginde tuketimde her donem ve kosulda yuzde 0,69 oraninda bir artisa tekabul etmektedir. Bu onemli refah kazanimlari, reformun kamu yatirimlarina olan talebi artirmasi, artan talebin ozel yatirimlari da yukseltmesi ve nihayette ekonomi genelinde sermaye stokunun daha yuksek bir degere ulasmasi sonucu gerceklesmektedir. [EN] This study aims to measure the welfare impact of the recent improvement in the duration of completion of the public investment projects in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, a real business cycle model is constructed in which the public capital is subject to a time-to-build constraint. The model is utilized to study a reform that mimics the recent Turkish experience, namely, shortening the completion duration to 4 years from roughly 9 years. The model implies that such a reform, when all the long-run effects are realized, leads to significant welfare gains corresponding to a 0.69 percent increase in consumption in all future states and time. These remarkable welfare gains are brought about by a higher economy-wide capital stock that is facilitated by an increased demand for public investment, and the accompanying upswing in the private investment. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1617&r=ara |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu; Ece Oral Cevirmez |
| Abstract: | [TR] Ekonomide tuketici davranislari, hem politika yapicilar hem de ekonominin gelecek tahminleri ile ilgilenenler icin oldukca onemli bir yere sahiptir. Tuketicilerin borclanma, tasarruf egilimleri ile satin alma istekleri genel ekonominin gidisatini etkilemektedir. Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu ve Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi isbirligiyle yurutulen Tuketici Egilim Anketi verilerinden yararlanilarak tuketicilerin tasarruf yapma, borc kullanma ve tuketim egilimlerini analiz etmektir. Tuketicilerin oznel degerlendirmelerini kullanarak probit modeller kurulmus ve gelir gruplarina gore tuketim ve tasarruf egilimlerinin birbirinden nasil farklilastigi incelenmistir. Bu calismanin Turkiye ekonomisine iliskin yazina birincil katkisi mikro-ekonomik veriler araciligiyla hanehalkinin tasarruf ve tuketim kararlarindaki ayrismayi gostermektir. Ayrica, emek geliri belirsizligi icin gosterge olmasi amaciyla hanehalki oznel degerlendirmeleri kullanilarak issiz sayisi artmasi riski uretilmis ve hanehalki dayanikli tuketim mali satin alma kararlarinin ertelemesine yol actigi saptanmistir. [EN] Consumer behavior is crucially important for policy makers and for those who have an interest in forecasting future economy. Consumers’ attitudes and behavior related to consumption, saving and borrowing affect the general economic situation. This study aims to analyze consumers’ tendencies on saving, borrowing and consumption via Consumer Tendency Survey carried out with the cooperation of the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Probit models are constructed by using subjective assessments of consumers and the diversification of saving and consumption behavior according to income groups is examined. The main contribution of this study to the literature on the Turkish economy is that it shows the divergence of households’ decisions on saving and consumption. Moreover, the number of unemployed people risk is produced as a proxy variable for future labor income uncertainty using household subjective evaluations and we found that it leads to the postponement of household durable consumption goods purchasing decisions. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1608&r=ara |
| By: | Deren Unalmis |
| Abstract: | [TR] 2010 yilinda Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) birden fazla politika faizinin ve aktif likidite politikasinin bir arada kullanilabildigi yeni bir koridor sistemine gecmistir. Kara (2015) calismasinda gosterildigi uzere yeni sistem, TCMB’nin temel fonlama araclarina iliskin faizleri degistirmeden sadece fonlama kompozisyonunu degistirerek para piyasasi faizlerini etkilemesine olanak tanimaktadir. TCMB’nin agirlikli ortalama fonlama faizi (TCMB AOFF), TCMB’nin fonlama kalemlerine iliskin tutarlar ve faizler dikkate alinarak hesaplanmakta olup, bankalarin TCMB’den borclanmalarinin efektif maliyetine iliskin bir gostergedir. Bankalarin TCMB disi kaynaklardan da borclanabildigi goz onunde bulunduruldugunda, bankalarin para piyasalarindaki kisa vadeli borclanmalarina iliskin kosullarin butuncul bir sekilde yorumlanmasi acisindan TCMB AOFF’nin yani sira Borsa Istanbul Gecelik Repo/Ters Repo Pazari’ndaki faizler ve kur takasi piyasasindaki kisa vadeli faizlerin de takibi onem arz etmektedir. Bu cercevede notta bankalarin para piyasalarindaki TCMB disi temel finansman maliyetlerini de hesaba katarak daha kapsamli bir efektif maliyet gostergesi elde etmek amaclanmaktadir. Soz konusu yeni gosterge TCMB+Piyasa AOFF olarak adlandirilmistir. [EN] Since 2010, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has been implementing a new corridor system in which multiple policy rates are used in conjunction with an active liquidity policy. Kara (2015) shows how the new system enables the CBRT to affect the money market rates without changing its policy rates, but changing only the composition of funding provided from the 1 week repo rate and the overnight lending rate. CBRT’s weighted average funding rate (CBRT WAFR), which is the effective cost of banks’ borrowing from the CBRT, is calculated by taking into account the outstanding funding volumes and the corresponding policy rates. As banks can also borrow from sources other than the CBRT, in order to have broader sense of banks’ borrowing cost in the money markets, it is also necessary to follow the market rates such as the Borsa Istanbul Overnight Repo/Reverse Repo rates and the short-term rates in the cross currency swap market. In that respect, this note aims to calculate an effective cost indicator for the banks’ borrowing from the money markets, taking into account the funds from both the CBRT and other sources. This new indicator is named as the CBRT+Market WAFR. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1520&r=ara |
| By: | Ferhat Camlica; Didem Gunes |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada finansal stres literaturunde en fazla kullanilan tahmin yontemleri olan esit varyans agirliklandirma, temel bilesenler analizi ve portfoy teorisi agirliklandirma yontemi ile uc farkli finansal stres endeksi hesaplanmakta ve Turkiye'de 2002-2015 doneminde yasanan stres olaylari cercevesinde karsilastirilmaktadir. Sonuclar, uc yontemle elde edilen stres endekslerinin finansal stres olaylarini yakalamak konusunda basarili bir performans gosterdigini ortaya koymaktadir. Bununla birlikte, portfoy teorisi agirliklandirma yontemi ile hesaplanan stres endeksinin farkli stres donemleri arasinda finansal stres-ekonomik aktivite baglantisi cercevesinde daha dogru bir siralama yapma imkani verdigi icin finansal stresin olculmesi ve izlenmesinde diger yontemlere gore daha baþarili bir performans sergiledigi sonucuna ulasilmistir. [EN] In this study, three different financial stress indexes are estimated with the most frequent used methods in the financial stress literature, i.e. equally variance weighting, principal component analysis and portfolio theoretic weighting, and compared according to the financial stress episodes witnessed in Turkey between 2002 and 2015. The results show that all three stress indexes show a good performance in capturing important stress episodes for the period under question. Nevertheless, the portfolio theoretic stress index stands out with its performance in terms of measuring and monitoring financial stress due to its property of enabling a correct ordering of the stress levels during different financial events implied by the financial stress-economic activity relationship. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1606&r=ara |
| By: | Georgescu, George |
| Abstract: | Despite theoretical and methodological improvements by national accounts framework revisions, not without disputes and confrontations of views, the growing complexity of economic and social phenomena under globalization circumstances has led to increasing difficulties in the design, monitoring and implementation of specific policies depending on GDP indicator. The paper focuses on the analysis of the GDP relevance and limitations in its interpretation, including a retrospective view. Some inconsistencies as regards the metrics of GDP (illegal activities, unobserved economy, self-consumption in rural households, owner’s imputed rents) are highlighted. Because the GDP does not take into account the impact of important factors of progress (depletion of natural resources, environmental factors, urban concentration and rural depopulation etc.) and does not reflects neither the citizens wellbeing (starting from Easterlin Paradox), efforts to develop new statistical standards in order to complement/substitute GDP with other indicators and/or building composite indicators that integrates various aspects of quality of life have been made, but without meeting a general consensus at the global level. |
| Keywords: | System of National Accounts; GDP limitations; International Comparison Program; wellbeing; EU convergence. |
| JEL: | B15 B41 C82 E01 N10 O11 |
| Date: | 2016–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72491&r=ara |
| By: | Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | [TR] Ocak – Eylul 2015 doneminde tuketici guvenine iliskin endekslerde suregelen kuvvetli dusus egilimi iktisadi faaliyet icin asagi yonlu onemli bir risk unsuru olarak degerlendirilmistir. Ancak ayni donemde dayanikli tuketime iliskin gostergelerde yuksek oranli artislar gozlenmistir. Bu notta, tuketici guvenindeki belirgin dususe ragmen soz konusu tuketim artisina neden olan olasi unsurlar tuketici guvenini olusturan alt bilesenlerin hareketleriyle aciklanmaya calisilmistir. Bulgulara gore, tuketici guvenine iliskin anketlerde hanehalkinin kendi ekonomik durumuna iliskin verdigi cevaplar, Turkiye ekonomisi geneline iliskin verdigi cevaplara gore cok daha iyimserdir. Bu donemde, genel makroekonomik cerceveyi tuketim harcamasi icin daha az uygun gorseler bile, hanehalklarinin kendi maddi durumlari ve tuketim harcamasi yapma ihtimallerini belirgin olarak dusurmemeleri olasi bir aciklama olarak degerlendirilmektedir. Buradan hareketle tuketici guven endekslerindeki alt sorularin hareketlerinin de analizlerde goz onune alinmasi faydali olacaktir. [EN] The continued strong downward trend in the consumer confidence indices during January-September 2015 period has been assessed as an important downside risk for the economic activity. However, sharp increases in the durable consumption indicators had been observed over the same period. In this note, we attempt to identify possible factors leading to such consumption increase, despite the significant decline in the consumer confidence, by the movement of the sub-components that make up consumer confidence. According to the findings, households’ responses to the questions regarding their own economic conditions are more optimistic than to the questions regarding the overall Turkish economy. Although households evaluate the macroeconomic conditions during this period as inadequate for durable consumption, the fact that they do not significantly decrease the possibility of making expenditures on durable goods and the current household financial condition is considered to be a possible explanation to the supposed inconsistency. Against this background, it would be beneficial to take into account also the movements of sub-components of consumer confidence indices for the consumption analyses. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1603&r=ara |
| By: | Evren Erdogan Cosar |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada Yatirim Anketi’nde yer alan firmalarin sabit sermaye yatirimlarina iliskin yaptiklari tahmin hatalari incelenmistir. Sonuclar, tahmin ufku kisaldikca tahmin hatalari ortanca degeri ve standart sapmasinin azaldigini gostermektedir. Firmalarin tahmin verdikleri doneme kiyasla talep, finansman kaynaklari ve beklenen kârlara iliskin goruslerindeki degisimler tahmin hatalari ile iliskili bulunmustur. Ekonomi genelini etkileyen bir kur belirsizligi, sektorel belirsizlik ve $/TL kurundaki degisimler yatirim harcamasi gerceklesmelerinin tahminlerin altinda kalmasina neden olurken firmaya ozgu belirsizliklerin tahmin hatalarina etkisi bulunmamistir. Bununla birlikte 2014-2015 doneminde kur belirsizligindeki artisin firmalarin yatirim kararlarini azaltici yonde etkilemedigi dikkat cekmektedir. [EN] In this study, forecast errors of firms regarding their fixed capital investment taken from the Investment Survey are analysed. The results indicate that as the forecast horizon shortens the median and standard deviation of forecast errors become smaller. The change in firms’ opinions about demand, financial sources and expected profitability are found to be related with forecast errors. While economy-wide exchange rate uncertainty, industry-wide uncertainty and changes in $/TL rate cause realized investment to be lower than forecasts, firm-specific uncertainty does not significantly affect forecast errors. However, the rise in exchange rate uncertainty in 2014-2015 period did not cause a decrease in firms’ investment decision. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1615&r=ara |
| By: | Hakan Er; Ýbrahim Ethem Güney |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bankacilik sisteminin TCMB tarafindan fonlanma ihtiyaci, 2015 yilinda bir onceki yila gore 53 milyar TL artmistir. Bankalarin TCMB fonlamasina erisim maliyeti olan agirlikli ortalama fonlama maliyetinin 32 baz puan artirildigi bu donemde, kredi faizlerinde 450 baz puana ulasan bir artis yasanmistir. Merkez Bankasi fonlama faizinde kucuk bir artisin gerceklestigi bu donemde kredi faizlerinde ortaya cikan belirgin yukselis, para politikasi aktarim mekanizmasinda “likidite kanali” olarak adlandirilan kanalin, TCMB faiz oranlarinin geciskenliginde bir kaldirac etkisi olusturabilecegine isaret etmektedir. Bu notla, 2015 yilinda izlenen para politikasinin etkileri, parasal aktarim mekanizmasinin kredi ve likidite kanallarina vurgu yapilarak incelenmistir. Calisma sonuclari, likidite kanalinin 2015 yilinda ticari ve tuketici kredi faizleri uzerinde artirici yonde ve kalici bir etki yaptigini gostermektedir. [EN] Liquidity deficit of the Turkish banking system that needs to be funded by the CBRT has increased 53 billion Turkish liras year on year in 2015. At the same period, weighted average cost of CBRT’s funding has increased 32 basis points and an increase of about 450 basis points in loan rates was observed. This observation reveals that the so-called “liquidity channel” of the monetary transmission mechanism is likely to have a leverage effect on the pass-through of CBRT’s lending rates. In this note, we analyze the impact of CBRT’s monetary policy in 2015 by emphasizing the credit and liquidity channels of the monetary transmission mechanism. The results show that the liquidity channel has a similar increasing effect in terms of magnitute and direction, on both commercial and consumer loan rates. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1620&r=ara |
| By: | Erdal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, 2004-2015 yillari arasi ic borc stokunun arz ve talep tarafinin kompozisyonu Turkiye icin analiz edilmistir. Bahsi gecen donemde, ic borc stokunun hem talep hem de arz kompozisyonunda dikkat cekici donusumler gozlenmistir. Ic borc stokunun talep tarafinda yabanci yatirimci, tuzel kisi ve ozel bankalarin payi artarken kamu bankalari ve hane halkinin payinin azaldigi saptanmistir. Arz tarafinda ise doviz cinsi ile doviz kuru ve faize endeksli borclanma araclarinin payi azalirken enflasyona endeksli ve sabit kuponlu tahvillerin payi artmistir. Arz tarafinda gozlenen diger onemli bir degisim ise borclanmanin vadesinin uzamasidir. Bu donusumler, faiz orani ve doviz kurundaki soklara karsi borc stokunu saglamlastirirken enflasyona endeksli borclanma araclarinin payinin artmasi da maliye ve para politikasi arasindaki uyumun onemine isaret etmektedir. Yabanci yatirimci payinin artmasi ise olumsuz soklar karsisinda faiz oranlarinin artmasi ve kamu borcunun yeniden finansmani konusunda riskleri artirirken tuzel kisilerin payinin yuksek olmasi bu riskleri dengelemektedir. [EN] In this study, the composition of supply and demand side of the domestic debt stock for Turkey is analyzed for 2004-2015 period. In this period, a significant shift is observed in the composition of domestic debt stock on both demand and supply side. On the demand side, while the shares of foreign investors, domestic institutional investors and private banks increased, the shares of public banks and households decreased. On the supply side, the share of inflation-indexed bonds and fixed coupon bonds increased, whilst the share of foreign currency debt instruments and debt instruments indexed to foreign currency and debt instruments indexed to interest rate decreased. Another important transformation observed in the supply side is the lengthening of debt maturity. These supply side shifts reduce the impact of the shocks related to the interest rate and exchange rate on debt stock. Furthermore, the increase in inflation-indexed bonds implies an advancing in the degree of harmony between monetary and fiscal policy. The high share of foreign investors may cause an increase in interest rates in the event of adverse shocks and affect the refinancing risk of the public debt. While, the high share of domestic institutional investors can balance these risks. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1616&r=ara |
| By: | Timur Hulagu; Erdi Kizilkaya; Ali Gencay Ozbekler; Pinar Tunar |
| Abstract: | [TR] 2010–2014 yillari arasinda Turkiye’de konut fiyatlarinin yuzde 50’nin uzerinde nominal artis gosterdigi ve bazi bolgelerde fiyatlarin iki katina ciktigi gozlenmistir. Bu artis, konut piyasasindaki dinamiklerin dikkatle takip edilmesini gerekli kilmistir. Bu calismada, Turkiye’de konutlarin gozlemlenebilen ozellikleri zaman icinde kontrol edilerek fiyatlardaki kalite artisi etkisi olculmeye ve bu etkiden arindirilmis bir fiyat endeksi uretilmeye calisilmistir. Bulgular, zaman icinde konutlarin kalitesinde onemli artislar oldugunu ortaya koymakta ve gozlenen fiyat artislarinin tamaminin reel degerlenme olarak tanimlanmasinin yanlis olabilecegini isaret etmektedir. Olusturulan hedonik fiyat endeksinden elde edilen sonuclara gore, Turkiye genelinde soz konusu donemde konut fiyatlarindaki nominal artislarin dortte birinin, reel artislarin ise yaklasik yarisinin kalite artisindan kaynaklandigi soylenebilmektedir. [EN] In the 2010-2014 period, housing prices increased more than 50 percent in Turkey, which increases the importance to carefully monitor housing market dynamics. This increase is widespread across the country where prices are even doubled in some regions. Our study performs a hedonic price adjustment for the housing market in Turkey, where we control for the price effects of increases in observed house characteristics in time. Results show significant increases in quality of houses sold, which in turn suggests that identifying the entire price increase as a real appreciation may be misleading. In particular, we estimate that one fourth of nominal changes and one half of real changes in price stem from quality improvements over the same period. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1602&r=ara |
| By: | Zeynel Harun Aliogullari; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Yunus Emrah Bulut; Mustafa Kilinc |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye’deki tuketici ve ticari kredi buyumelerinin cari acikla iliskisi incelenmistir. 2003C2-2015C2 donemini kapsayan veriyle yapilan regresyon sonuclari, Turkiye’de tuketici kredisi buyumesinin ilgili donemde cari dengeyi istatistiki olarak anlamli ve olumsuz yonde etkiledigini, ticari kredi buyumesinin ise cari denge uzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamli bir etkisinin bulunmadigini gostermektedir. Sonuclar, TCMB’nin temel hedefi olan fiyat istikrarini surdurmek yaninda finansal istikrari da gozeten yeni para politikasi cercevesinin ve finansal istikrarin saglanmasiyla sorumlu diger kuruluslarin aldigi makroihtiyati tedbirlerin Turkiye’de finansal istikrari destekleyici yonde calistigini gostermektedir. [EN] In this paper, the relationship between consumer and commercial loan growths and current account deficit in Turkey is investigated. The regression results using 2003Q2-2015Q2 period reveal that in Turkey consumer loan growth negatively and statistically significantly affects current account balance, while commercial loan growth has no statistically significant effect on current account balance. The results indicate that the new monetary policy framework of CBRT which takes into account the financial stability while keeping the price stability as the primary objective and the macroprudential measures taken by other related agencies work to enhance the financial stability in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1519&r=ara |
| By: | Doruk Kucuksarac |
| Abstract: | [TR] Para politikasi durusu ve para politikasina dair beklentiler piyasa faizlerinin temel belirleyicilerindendir. Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) tarafindan 2011 yili basindan itibaren uygulanmakta olan para politikasi kapsaminda, bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faizi, faiz koridorunun ust ve alt bandi ile likidite politikasi aktif olarak kullanilmaktadir. Bu politika cercevesi piyasa faizlerinin sadece tek bir para politikasi faizinden deðil, tum politika faizleri, bu politika faizlerinin oynakligi ve saglanan likidite kompozisyonundan da etkilenmesine imkan tanimaktadir. Bu notta kisa vadeli Hazine bonosu ve kur takasi faiz oranlarinin para politikasi faizlerinden ne olcude etkilendigi 2011 Ekim ile 2015 Temmuz arasi haftalik veri kullanilarak incelenmistir. Sonuclar, modellerde kullanilan tum para politikasi araclarina iliskin degiskenlerin kisa vadeli piyasa faizleri uzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamli oldugunu gostermektedir. Ayrica, faiz geciskenligi 2011 oncesine dair donemle kiyaslandiginda, likidite durusuna dair gostergenin 2011 oncesi donemde istatistiksel olarak anlamsiz oldugu ve TCMB ortalama fonlama faizinin etkisinin 2011 sonrasi donemde azaldigi dikkat cekmektedir. Bu durum, TCMB’nin mevcut durumda likidite politikalari ile 2011 oncesi doneme gore piyasa faizlerini farkli sekilde etkiledigini gostermektedir. [EN] Monetary policy rates and expectations about them are one of the main determinants of short term market rates. Since 2011, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has been implementing a new policy mix; usage of one week repo rate, interest rate corridor and liquidity management. This policy complicates the relation between monetary policy tools and market yields since the market yields are now affected by the combination of all policy rates, uncertainty about each component and liquidity management. This note explores the extent to which the short term government bonds and currency swap rates are influenced by the monetary policy using the weekly data between 2011 October and 2015 July. The results show that CBT policy rates and their combinations are statistically significant in explaining the variations in short term bond and currency swap rates. Besides, when we compare interest rate pass through with the period before 2011, it is observed that the indicator for liquidity stance is statistically insignificant in the period before 2011 and the impact of CBRT average funding cost decrease after 2011 period. This shows that CBRT now affects the market rates differently through its liquidity policies compared to the period before 2011. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1605&r=ara |
| By: | Fethi Ogunc; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma Turkiye’de islenmemis gida fiyatlari ile bu grubu olusturan uc ana grup (taze meyve, sebze ve diger islenmemis gida) icin bazi istatistiki modeller ile tarihsel ortalamalara dayanan yargisal yaklasimin alti aya kadarki tahmin performansini degerlendirmektedir. Bulgularimiz, bir ay ilerisi icin piyasadan toplanan fiyatlarin, alti aylik tahmin ufkundaki sonraki donemler icin ise egilime yakinsama modellerinden alinan tahminlerin daha az hata icerdigi yonundedir. Egilime yakinsama modeli, SARIMA modeli ve tarihsel ortalamalari esas alan yargisal tahminlere ustunluk kurmasinin yani sira, fiyatlarin egilimden sapmasi durumunda ortalama kac aylik bir surede duzeltme goruldugune dair alt gruplar bazinda bilgi de vermektedir. Uretim yapisinin dogal bir sonucu olarak fiyat duzeltmelerinin en gec gozlendigi grup ortalama bes ay ile taze meyve olarak tespit edilirken sebze fiyatlarindaki duzeltmelerin bir ay gibi gorece daha kisa bir surede gerceklestigi sonucuna ulasilmistir. [EN] This study compares the forecast performances of some statistical models and historical averages approach for unprocessed food inflation and its three main components (fresh fruits, vegetables and other) in Turkey. Our findings support the superiority of collected prices for one-step-ahead forecasts, while forecasts for longer horizons up to six-months have smaller RMSEs for trend-convergence models. These models not only serve as much better forecasting tools in comparison to SARIMA model and historical average-based judgmental forecasts but also provide information on the speed of correction in case of deviations from trend. As a natural outcome of the underlying production structures, corrections in fresh fruit prices are found to take longer time, averaging five months, while corrections in vegetable prices are much quicker with one month. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1613&r=ara |
| By: | S. Tolga Tiryaki |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisinde kredi talebinin takip edilmesine olanak taniyacak cesitli talep gostergeleri derlenerek bunlarin kredi gelismeleri ve kredi faizleri ile olan iliskisi incelenmektedir. Anket-temelli gostergelere ilave olarak, Google arama trendleri ve kredi basvuru verileri kullanilarak anketlerin sundugu veriler farklý acidan desteklenmeye calisilmaktadir. Calismanin bulgulari, Banka Kredileri Egilim Anketindeki talep gostergelerine ilave olarak Google arama trendlerinden elde edilen talep gostergelerinin ozellikle bireysel kredilere dair talep hakkinda zamanli bilgi sunabilecegine isaret etmektedir. [EN] This study compiles credit demand indicators for the Turkish economy and provides a simple analysis of the relationship between credit demand, actual credit developments and loan rates. In addition to the survey-based indicators, the Google search trends and data on credit applications are also used to provide supplementary information. The findings of the study suggest that, in addition to the credit demand indicators from the Bank Loans Tendency Survey, indicators based on Google search trends may offer timely information to track credit demand especially for consumer credit. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1601&r=ara |
| By: | Cem Cebi |
| Abstract: | [TR] Butce harcamalari icinde esnek (iradi) harcama olarak nitelendirilebilecek kismin belirlenmesi, ekonomiye gelen soklar karsisinda maliye politikasinin manevra alaninin belirlenmesi acisindan onem arz etmektedir. Bu calisma, Merkezi Yonetim Butcesi itibariyla 2006-2014 doneminde butce harcamalarinin yapisini esnek ve kati harcama ayriminda incelemek amaciyla hazirlanmistir. Bu anlamda calisma, Turkiye’de kamu harcama esnekliginin cercevesini tespit etmek amaciyla basit bir yöntem gelistirmis ve kamu harcama esnekliginde zaman icinde meydana gelen degisimleri ortaya koymaya calismistir. Kati bir harcama kalemi olan faiz odemelerinin belirgin bir sekilde azalmasina bagli olarak butce harcama katiliginin incelenen donem itibariyla azalma egilimi icinde oldugu gozlenmektedir. Diger yandan, faiz disi harcamalar itibariyla bir analiz yapildiginda faiz haric kati harcamalarin toplam harcamalar icindeki payinin arttigi gorulmektedir. [EN] It is essential to identify budget rigidity and budget flexibility in order to determine room for fiscal maneuver when a macroeconomic shock hits the economy. This study aims to measure budget rigidity in Turkey using Central Government budget expenditures for the period of 2006-2014. To achieve this goal, this study investigates the details of budget expenditures and suggest a simple methodology based on several assumptions. This study concludes that the rigid component of total budget expenditures has decreased in Turkey during the period of 2006-2014 due to a declining path of interest payments. On the other hand, examining the budget rigidity by excluding interest payments reveals that the share of rigid primary expenditures in total budget expenditures has increased. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1523&r=ara |
| By: | Olcay Yucel Culha; Okan Eren |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu notta, dini ve resmi tatillere bagli olarak Turkiye dis ticaret istatistiklerinde gozlenen takvim ve calisma gunu etkileri, gunluk verilerin yil icindeki payi kullanilarak ve tatiller konusunda detayli bir ayrim yapilarak hesaplanmistir. Dis ticaret istatistikleri icin her gune farkli bir agirlik veren yeni bir calisma gunu degiskeni olusturulmustur. Yeni calisma gunu degiskeni kullanildiginda mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirilmiþ dis ticaret serilerinin, her calisma gunune esit deger veren basit bir calisma gunu degiskeni ile arindirilmis serilere gore daha dusuk standart sapmaya ve daha yuksek ardisik bagimlilik katsayisina sahip oldugu gorulmustur. [EN] In this note, calendar and working day effects in the trade statistics of Turkey are calculated by distinguishing impacts of religious and national holidays rigorously and employing daily trade data. A new working day variable that assigns a different weight to each day of the week is obtained for exports and imports separately. When the new working day variables are used during the seasonal adjustment process, the resulting adjusted series seem to have lower standard deviations and higher autocorrelations than those obtained by using a work-day variable that assigns equal weight to each week day. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1610&r=ara |
| By: | Ozgur Ozel; Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada Sanayi Uretim Endeksi (SUE) tahminleri icin basit bir yontem onerilmekte ve bu sekilde elde edilen tahminler gercek zamanli veriler kullanilarak piyasa tahminleriyle karsilastirilmaktadir. Kullanilan yontem yillik SUE degisimi tahminini son 11 aydaki aylik degisimlerin toplamý, tahmin edilecek aya ait takvim etkisi ve SUE’de aylik frekansta beklenen degisimin toplami olarak tanimlamaktadir. Yontemin kolay uygulanabilir olmasi oldukca oynak olan aylik degisimi basit istatistiksel yontemlerle tahmin ediyor olmasindan kaynaklanmaktadir. Piyasa tahminleriyle yapilan karsilastirma, sanayi uretiminin sadece zaman serisi ozelliklerinin kullanildigi durumda yapilan tahminlerin makul performans gosterdigine isaret etmektedir. [EN] This note proposes a simple forecast approach for Industrial Production Index (IPI) and compares the forecast performance of the model with market consensus forecasts using real time data. The method decomposes the predicted annual change of IPI into the sum of the latest 11 monthly changes, the calendar effect of the month to be forecast and the expected monthly change. This approach is easily implementable in that the volatile monthly changes are predicted using simple statistical methods. The comparison with market forecasts reveals that predictions solely based on time series properties of industrial production exhibit reasonable forecast performance. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1521&r=ara |
| By: | Okan Eren |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma, universite mezunlari ile lise ve alti egitim duzeyine sahip olanlarin ortalama saatlik ucretleri arasindaki farki ifade eden universite egitim primini, 2004-2014 donemine ait TUIK HIA verilerini kullanarak incelemektedir. Ilgili donemde, egitim primi ozel sektor calisanlari icin ortalama 2,7 olurken kamu calisanlari icin ortalama 1,6 degerini almaktadir. Donem ici hareketi incelendiginde, egitim priminin ozel sektorde kademeli olarak azaldigi kamuda ise yukseldigi gorulmektedir. [EN] This note investigates the college education premium, which reflects the difference between the average hourly wages of university graduates and those with a high school degree or less, by employing 11 waves of the Household Labor Force Survey published by Turkish Statistical Institute between 2004 and 2014. In this period, the average education premium is found to be 2.7 and 1.6 in the private and public sectors, respectively. Throughout the period, the university education premium is observed to fall gradually in the private sector while increasing in the public sector. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1607&r=ara |
| By: | Mustafa Bulut; Hatice Gokce Karasoy |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma, para politikasina iliskin belirsizligin arttigi ya da azaldigi donemlerde politika kararlarinin finansal piyasalara aktarimini incelemektedir. Turkiye icin Haziran 2010-Ocak 2015 donemi, vaka analizi yontemiyle incelenmis; para politikasina iliskin belirsizlik TCMB Beklenti Anketi katilimcilarinin beklenti uyusmazligi ile olculmustur. Ampirik bulgular para politikasinin aktarim mekanizmasinin politikaya iliskin belirsizlik ile yakindan iliskili olabilecegini gostermektedir. Ornegin, surpriz politika faizi artisi dusuk belirsizlik ortaminda Turk lirasinin ABD dolari karsisinda deger kazanmasini saglarken yuksek belirsizlik ortaminda deger kaybetmesine sebep olabilmektedir. Ayrica temel politika araci olan bir hafta vadeli repo faizinde surpriz bir artis, tüm belirsizlik duzeyleri icin getiri egrisini yataylastirmaktadir. Ote yandan getiri egrisindeki yataylasma dusuk belirsizlik ortaminda daha belirgin olmakta ve uzun vadeli faizler pozitif para politikasi surprizine yaygin kaninin aksine dusus yonunde tepki vermektedir. Para politikasina iliskin belirsizligin dusuk oldugu donemlerde, pozitif para politikasi surprizinin enflasyon beklentileri araciligiyla uzun vadeli faizleri etkiledigi dusunulmektedir. [EN] This study investigates the transmission of monetary policy decisions to financial markets under varying levels of monetary policy uncertainty. We conducted an event study for the period June 2010-January 2015. The uncertainty regarding to monetary policy is measured by the disagreement of expectations in the CBRT Survey of Expectations. Empirical findings indicate that the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism is highly affected by policy uncertainty. For example, a positive policy surprise leads to an appreciation of Turkish lira against US dollar under low levels of uncertainty, whereas Turkish lira depreciates when uncertainty is high. Furthermore, an increase in the main policy rate flattens the yield curve for all uncertainty levels. On the other hand, this pattern is more pronounced while uncertainty is low and contrary to expectations, long term rates decreases after a positive policy surprise. During the periods when uncertainty regarding monetary policy is low, positive policy surprise decreases long term rates via anchoring inflation expectations. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1621&r=ara |
| By: | Evren Erdogan Cosar |
| Abstract: | [TR] Hizmetler, ticaret ve insaat gibi servisler ile ilgili sektorler gerek katma deger gerekse istihdam yaratma acisindan buyuk bir ekonomik oneme sahip olmalarina ragmen veri kisitlari nedeniyle bu sektorlerin faaliyetleri yeterince takip edilememektedir. Bu notta TUIK tarafindan hizmetler, perakende ticaret ve insaat sektorlerine uygulanan Aylik Isyeri Egilim Anketi verileri kullanilarak ilgili sektorler icin kapasite kullanim oranlari hesaplanmistir. Sonuclar, hesaplanan kapasite kullanim orani serilerinin ekonomik faaliyetin takibinde yararli olabilecegine isaret etmektedir. [EN] Although services sectors have a great economic importance by means of value-added and job creation, economic activity of these sectors cannot be adequately followed due to the data limitations. In this study capacity utilization rates for services, retail trade and construction sectors are calculated using the Monthly Business Tendency Survey conducted by TURKSTAT. The results show that calculated capacity utilization rate series may be useful in monitoring economic activity. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1604&r=ara |
| By: | Evren Erdogan Cosar |
| Abstract: | Bu calismada Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi tarafindan yayimlanan Yatirim Anketi’nden alinan firmalarin kendi sabit sermaye yatirimlarina iliskin tahminleri panel veri teknikleri kullanilarak incelenmistir. Sonuclar tahminlerin rasyonel bir yapi sergilemedigine isaret ederken firmalarin tahminlerini olustururken bir onceki yil yaptiklari hatalari goz onunde bulundurduklarina isaret etmektedir. Firmalarin icinde bulunulan yil icin verdikleri tahminlere iliskin hatalarin ortanca degeri ve standart sapmasi, bir yil once verdikleri tahminlerinkinden daha dusuktur. Firmalarin tahmin verdikleri doneme kiyasla talep, finansman kaynaklari ve beklenen karlara iliskin goruslerindeki degisimler tahmin hatalari ile iliskili bulunmustur. Ekonomi genelini etkileyen bir kur belirsizligi, sektorel belirsizlik ve $/TL kurundaki degisimler yatirim harcamasi gerceklesmelerinin tahminlerin altinda kalmasina neden olurken firmaya ozgu belirsizligin tahmin hatalarina etkisi bulunmamistir. Bununla birlikte 2014-2015 doneminde kur belirsizligindeki artisin firmalarin yatirim kararlarini azaltici yonde etkilemedigi dikkat cekmektedir. |
| Keywords: | Yatirim anketi, Rasyonel beklentiler, Uyarlanabilir beklentiler, Gerileyen beklentiler, Tahmin guncellemeleri, Belirsizlik |
| JEL: | C23 D81 D84 E22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1616&r=ara |
| By: | Ayse Arzu Yavuz; Devrim Yavuz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada Turkiye’deki kadinlarda evlilik oncesi ve sonrasi calisip calismama durumlari arasindaki etkilesim incelenmektedir. Bu cercevede Turkiye Nufus ve Saglik Arastirmalari’ndan elde edilen anket verileri kullanilarak farkli kadin gruplarini kapsayacak sekilde uc adet lojistik model tahmin edilmistir. Sonuclar, evlilik oncesi calisan kadinlarin evlilik sonrasi calisma olasiliklarinin diger etkenler sabit olmak uzere onemli olcude daha yuksek oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. [EN] This paper studies the relation between the working status of women before and after marriage. In this context, three logit models are estimated for different groups of women, using Turkish Demographic and Health Survey data. It is found that, the probability of working after marriage is significantly higher if the woman was working before marriage, controlling other factors. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1518&r=ara |