nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2016‒07‒23
nineteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Determining the Suitability of Alternative Locations for Syrian Refugee Camps in Turkey using Extended VIKOR By Tufan Demirel; Serhat Tüzün
  2. The Syrian Refugee Crisis: Labour Market Implications in Jordan and Lebanon By Lorenza Errighi; Jörn Griesse
  4. Cost of Caesarean Section Rates in Turkey and Their Burden in the Turkish Health Economics By Özlem Özer; Çiğdem Gün; Meltem Saygılı
  5. Perceptual Maps: An Empirical Research on Hospitals By Fatih Santas; Ahmet Kar; Gulcan Kahraman; Arzu Kursun
  6. Comparative analysis of fuzzy multi-criteria decision making for location selection of Textile plant in Turkey By Nihan Çetin Demirel; Muhammet Deveci; Gizem Eser
  7. Some Economic Consequences of Higher Education Expansion in Turkey By Polat, Sezgin
  8. Consumption Smoothing and Borrowing Constraints: Evidence from Household Surveys of Iran By Einian, Majid; Nili, Masoud
  9. ARAB SPRING-A PROXY WAR? By deniz alca
  10. The Reflections of Smartphone Use and Recreational Use of Internet by High School Students to Leisure Boredom and Academic Achievement By beyza merve akgül; ali selman özdemir; suat karaküçük
  11. Render Unto Caesar: Taxes, Charity, and Political Islam By Maleke Fourati; Gabriele Gratton; Pauline Grosjean
  12. Turkey’s Economy in the Shadows of Terrorism By YAÅžAR AYÅžEGÜL OÄžUZ
  13. Economic Contribution Of Tourism To Economy By DÖNDÜ İLKAYA; YAÅžAR AYÅžEGÜL OÄžUZ
  15. 20. Century’s Economic Crises and Their Effects on Turkey’s Economy By İsmail CAKMAK
  17. Growth elasticity of monetary and non-monetary poverty: an application to Iran By Hosnieh Mahoozi
  18. A Comparison of Nineteen Various Electricity Consumption Forecasting Approaches and Practicing to Five Different Households in Turkey By T. O. Benli
  19. L’Union du Maghreb Arabe : Quelles perspectives ? By ziadi, azza

  1. By: Tufan Demirel (Yildiz Technical University); Serhat Tüzün (Yildiz Technical University)
    Abstract: As the conflict in Syria deepens, the number of displaced Syrians crossing the border into Turkey has dramatically risen. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), there are 2,748,367 registered Syrian refugees in Turkey as of May 2016. On the other hand, the population of Syrian refugees in camps is estimated to be around 217,000 people, due to the lack of capacity. The demand for camps has surpassed the available spaces in the camps.On 22 October 2014, the Government of Turkey issued a regulation on protection, defining a status that refugees from Syria seeking international protection are admitted to Turkey and will not be sent back to Syria against his or her will. In addition, on 18 March 2016, EU and Turkey agreed to end the irregular migration from Turkey to the EU and replace it instead with legal channels of resettlement of refugees to the European Union. These two conditions lead to an urgent necessity to organize the situation of Syrian refugees in Turkey, who cannot be seen as temporary. For the settlement of Syrian refugees to Turkey, an adaptation process is necessary. Due to the lack of capacity and poor conditions in the current camps, new camps must be built. The aim of the present study is to analyze the alternative locations for building new refugee camps in Turkey, regarding the affecting factors, through Extended VIKOR.The problem is considered as a multi-criteria decision making problem. The factors affecting the suitability for new camps; mainly grouped as political, economic, demographic, and sociocultural; are taken into account as the main criteria. Alternatives are selected among a set of different locations that are already considered by the Turkish government and the UNHCR.The model developed uses experts’ views to quantify the effects of the factors for each location with the aid of fuzzy approach. The problem is then solved using Extended VIKOR and the locations for new Syrian Refugee Camps in Turkey are evaluated. Afterwards, a sensitivity analysis is applied to analyze system’s behavior to changes.
    Keywords: Syrian Civil War, International Migration, Refugee Camps, Extended VIKOR, Multi-Criteria Decision Making.
    JEL: C00 C54 F22
  2. By: Lorenza Errighi; Jörn Griesse
    Abstract: Since the outbreak of the armed conflict in Syria, the neighbours Jordan and Lebanon have been faced with the arrival of a large number of refugees. Aside from the immediate humanitarian needs of the Syrian refugees, their integration into the local labour market is crucial to enable refugees to improve their situation through their own efforts and, for host countries, to reap more of the potential economic benefits from the demographic boost. However, the labour market policy response in Jordan and Lebanon has so far broadly gone in a direction of limiting refugees’ access in an attempt to protect the native population. While this is understandable given the large number of refugees, joint efforts from host governments and the international community are required to engage refugees in productive and formalised economic activities, along with increasing the labour market potential of the native population. The EU is part of this international effort that seeks to combine external support with national policy action.
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2016–05
    Abstract: Turkey had not have a sufficient industry in order to meet domestic demand when the Republic was established in 1923. Industrialization of Turkey has begun with a liberal approach. After the Great Depression, statism influenced the industrialization policy of Turkey. Two import-substitution industrialization plans adopted in 1933 and 1938. Nevertheless, the second plan could not have been implemented effectively because of the II. World War. Baker Report in 1950’s advised Turkey to industrialize in sectors in which she has a comparative advantage. Although outward-oriented growth and export-led industrialization policy had gained importance in 1950s, they could not have sustained properly because of the foreign currency deficit. Turkey began to implement import-substitution industrialization strategy in 1960s. She experienced a structural transformation within her manufacturing industry together with the start of intermediate goods production. Depending upon neo-liberal policies, Turkey embraced export-led industrialization strategy in 1980s. Along with the export-led industrialization strategy, low exchange rate and low real wage policies increased the competitiveness of the Turkish industry. Customs Union with the European Union and membership duties of the World Trade Organization affected the industrialization policy of Turkey in 1990s. As a consequence, Turkish industry sector has been integrated with the global economy. Global competition began to affect the Turkish industry sector in 2000s. The ratio of the imported raw materials and intermediate goods used in the industry sector have increased. Along with the increased competitiveness of the sector, the volume of exports has also inclined. Despite the incline within the volume of exports, external trade deficit has also increased due to the increase in the imports of the intermediate goods. The Turkish industry sector has entered into 2000s with such structural problems. Apparently, Turkey has to adjust her export-led industrialization strategy once again upon the changing circumstances. In Turkish academia, a new export-led industrialization strategy which is supported by import-substitution has been considered as an adequate industrialization policy for the 2010s. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the new industrialization strategy in Turkey referring to a collaboration of export-led industrialization with import substitution. At the first part of the paper, industrialization strategies of Turkey have been examined. At the second part, structural problems of the Turkish industry sector are determined. At the final part, policies which support the new industrialization strategy are discussed.
    Keywords: Economic Development, Industrial Policy, Turkish Economy
    JEL: F43 L50 L16
  4. By: Özlem Özer (Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Healthcare Management); Çiğdem Gün (Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Nursing); Meltem Saygılı (Kırıkkale University, Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Healthcare Management)
    Abstract: Caesarean section is generally recommended when it is not possible to confidently complete the vaginal birth or there is a certain risk of increase in the morbidity and mortality rates of mother and/or infant due to vaginal birth. Even though caesarean section is recommended only under certain conditions, the rate of caesarean sections has shown a significant tendency of increase in recent years in Turkey. The increase of caesarean sections, which are more costly compared to normal births, causes an unnecessary cost for the national economy. The objective of this study is to give information about the rates of caesarean sections in Turkey, make assumptions about the approximate costs of normal births and caesarean sections and their postpartum outcomes in our country, and propose solutions for decreasing the rates of caesarean sections and thus, the economic burden it causes in our country.
    Keywords: Caesarean section, cost, Turkey
    JEL: I19
  5. By: Fatih Santas (Hacettepe University); Ahmet Kar (Hacettepe University); Gulcan Kahraman (Hacettepe University); Arzu Kursun (Giresun University)
    Abstract: Competition has increased among all health care providers in the provision of health care services in Turkey with the increasing role of the private sector. Perception management of health care consumers has gained importance. In order to be preferred by health care consumers, it is necessary for managers to determine how the perception of health care organizations. This study aims to determine the perception of health care consumers related to public, university and private hospitals. For this purpose, survey was applied to 283 patients who got health care services in outpatient services in a public hospital in Giresun in Turkey. The study shows that there is a statistically significant relationship between hospital preference of consumers and gender, age, income, health insurance and number of hospital visit last one year. The research demonstrates that consumers perceive private hospitals operating in the city center of Giresun on the first rank at the five dimensions (staff behavior, service quality, physical facilities, reputation and cost to consumer).
    Keywords: Health Care Marketing, Consumer, Perceptual Maps, Hospitals
    JEL: M00 I11
  6. By: Nihan Çetin Demirel (Yildiz Technical University); Muhammet Deveci (Yildiz Technical University); Gizem Eser (Yildiz Technical University)
    Abstract: Due to the increasing competition in the market, taking right decisions about the location selection for businesses is very important. The wrong choice of location for businesses may cause to large losses even bankruptcy. Textile sector is the first sector for which the location selection is quite important. The location selection of a textile factory is generally one of the most important decisions. The textile sector is considered the locomotive of domestic trade in Turkey. The purpose of this study is to describe the application of two Fuzzy Multi Criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) methods named Fuzzy TOPSIS and Fuzzy VIKOR for solving location selection problem of textile factor, which is located in Istanbul European side and looked for second location in Turkey. We used twelve criteria for FMCDM, which are determined from literatures and practical investigations. The methods of fuzzy set theory, linguistic value, Fuzzy TOPSIS and Fuzzy VIKOR are used to consolidate decision-makers’ assessments about criteria weightings. Besides a sensitivity analysis is carried out for the Fuzzy TOPSIS method.
    Keywords: Location selection, Multi criteria decision making, Fuzzy TOPSIS, Fuzzy VIKOR, Textile Factory.
    JEL: C00 M11
  7. By: Polat, Sezgin
    Abstract: This article discusses recent structural changes in Turkish higher education to draw attention to a number of social and economic consequences of this expansion in terms of mobility and inequality over the last ten years. First, we outline the institutional background of the expansion of higher education in order to identify various re-distributive dimensions of the policy. Compared to 2004, creating new universities and increasing the existing capacity almost doubled the college enrollment rates. Subsidies facilitating more education grants and fee waivers were followed by heavy investment in public student accommodation. This policy was initiated as a political move targeting regional development, taking on a redistributive character by reorienting public funds toward poorer eastern regions. In this paper, we limit our focus to the impacts of these policies on the local labor market. By using household labor force surveys between 2004 and 2014, firstly, we explored how college proximity had an effect on access to college for the local families. Our results from a difference-in-difference model provide evidence that this policy had an equity-enhancing effect for daughters of low-educated families in some regions with largescale expansion. The results also indicate that the regional mobility of educated workers may be slowed by this expansion. Secondly, we investigated whether the compositional change has affected local returns to college degrees and relative convergence across regions. Estimation results show that despite the increase in college graduates, returns in terms of wages at the local level are increasing and that some regional convergence was attained.
    Keywords: Higher education, Returns to education, regional labor markets, College proximity, Turkey
    JEL: I23 I26 R23
    Date: 2016–05
  8. By: Einian, Majid; Nili, Masoud
    Abstract: We use Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey," to analyze the dynamics of consumption of the households. We observe evidence of excess sensitivity in a cohort pseudo panel of Iranian households. Excess sensitivity, however, is absent for government employees who have better access to finance due to the structure of labor market and banking system in Iran. Our results support the idea that borrowing constraints is the main cause for evidence of excess sensitivity. This indicates that actual consumption prole is sub-optimal and hence deepening financial access will decrease the welfare loss of this sub-optimality. In the paper, we have also provided estimates of elasticity of inter-temporal substitution for the Iranian households for the first time, and they are consistent with those of other developing countries.
    Keywords: Consumption Smoothing, Permanent Income Hypothesis, Euler Equation, Excess Sensitivity, Borrowing Constraints
    JEL: C55 D12 D14 E21 O53
    Date: 2016–07–05
  9. By: deniz alca (karabuk university)
    Abstract: This paper will argue the concept of “Arab Spring†which has been used as a tool for perception management to cover up a multi-dimensional Proxy War that is ongoing within the borders of Middle East.Being an allusion to 1848 revolutions, which is known as “Spring of Nations†, Arab Spring is ought to be a grassroots movement. It is accepted as a breaking point for Arab Peninsula by western scholars, intellectuals and policy makers. However Liberte-Éqalite under the concept of democracy seems to be the subject matter of the process, the debate was rounding about establishment of legitimate governments immediately.Therefore, until the government of Syria’s unexpected resistance to so called social movements, Western countries insisted on the existence of the uprisings autonomous character in Middle East. After the challenge of Syria it became harder to claim autonomy or civility for the movements at the region. The direct intervention of western countries to the process made it even harder. In light of these developments building an intellectual argument on what is happening or expected in Middle East became more and more blurry. To clarify the process we propose a new point of view which suggests to rethink the Arab Spring starting from scratch. Can the so cold autonomous revolt against authoritarian regimes in Middle East be a proxy war which is sponsored by international actors?The Western Governments’ publicly discussions of some vital issues which includes direct violations of a “sovereign states†sovereignty rights such as weapon supplying to rebellions, can be considered as an indicator for such a hidden agenda. Likewise the refugee inflow to other countries can be a supporting indicator of this theory. The people who were so determined to take over the authoritarian regimes in their countries by revolution are now fleeing to Europe. What has changed and why those revolutionist are not holding the lines. Were they ever? This process is either a Global Civil War, which seems unlikely since nation states still exists and international law protects their existence, or more likely a Proxy War which makes it possible to fight war in a foreign country without any declaration. The ongoing Proxy War in Middle East is an example of post-modern warfare. The new wars will not seem to be fought by national armies. To ovoid the political and legal consequences of modern war, using proxies seems to be the future of new warfare.
    Keywords: proxy war, proxy-agent, conflict, Global Civil War, modern state, modern warfare, new wars, human rights, authonomy, Arab Spring
    JEL: F51 F52
  10. By: beyza merve akgül (gazi university); ali selman özdemir (Bülent Ecevit University); suat karaküçük (gazi university)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between, on the one hand, smartphone and recreational internet use, and on the other hand, students’ academic success, life satisfaction and boredom in leisure time. The study sample contains 439 randomly selected high school students in Cankaya District, Ankara, Turkey. The questionnaire used to collect data is composed of five parts. These are the “Personal Information Form†, ‘’Smartphone addiction scale’, “Addiction Profile Index Internet Scan Form (BAPINT)†, ‘’leisure boredom scale’’ and ‘’life satisfaction scale’’. Frequency and percentage calculations, Pearson Correlations, multiple regression analysis and One-Way ANOVA test were utilized in the analysis .Consequently, it is observed that there is no meaningful difference between students’ perceived academic success levels in terms of their smartphone use, F(4, 434)= 2.32, p>0.05. However, it is determined that there is a meaningful difference between students’ perceived academic success levels with regard to their recreational internet use, F(4,434)=5.36, p
    Keywords: smartphone addiction, recreational use of internet, leisure boredom, academic achievement
  11. By: Maleke Fourati (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW Australia); Gabriele Gratton (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW Australia); Pauline Grosjean (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW Australia)
    Abstract: Data from the first post-Arab Spring elections reveal that support for Islamic parties came from richer districts and individuals. We show that standard public finance arguments help explain the voting pattern in these elections and others in the Muslim world. Our model predicts that a voter’s probability to vote for a religious party (i) increases in income for the poorest voters, but possibly decreases in income for the richest; (ii) is greater for voters in richer districts; and (iii) increases with the voter’s religiosity. We test these predictions on original micro-level data in a nationally representative sample of 600 individuals in 30 districts in Tunisia. Our empirical results align with our predictions and suggest that belonging to the middle class and living in a richer district together affect voting decisions more than being a religious voter. We also test for other possible factors affecting voting decisions, such as education, or attitudes towards corruption or towards the West. Finally, we document similar patterns in other key elections in the Muslim world.
    Keywords: Religion, religious parties, political preferences, democratic politics, charitable organizations
    JEL: D72 Z12
    Date: 2016–07
    Abstract: Terrorism is a phenomenon which is quite complex, constantly changeable, and a threat to the all economies, that has been in the national and international agenda for many years. Increasing number of terrorist activities all over the world in recent years is the source of many social, economic and political issues. The negative impacts of terrorism have been experienced in Turkey for many years while it has been trying to develop its economy in the shadows of terrorism at the same time. The economy breathes in an environment where there is stability and security. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of terrorism in Turkey's economy for all sectors, especially tourism and foreign trade.
    Keywords: terrorism, international trade, tourism, economic growth, stability, economic development
    JEL: A10
    Abstract: Since the 1900s, the tourism sector has been getting more significance as an economic activity both in Turkey and worldwide. To develop foreign exchange, to create new job opportunities, and to have more money to pay external debts, tourism is of a quite important role. Moreover, tourism provides many additional benefits in different sectors and sources of income, such as food, accommodation, industry and construction, etc. In this study, general goal is to show economic contributions of tourism to developing countries like Turkey by obtaining and analyzing tourism activities. Furthermore, countries such as Turkey, Greece and Spain have been taken into consideration as the examples in this study. As a result, the importance and role of tourism sector in the economy of countries are examined in light of data that are collected from given examples.
    Keywords: Tourism, economy, exchange.
    JEL: A10
  14. By: Hasan AÄŸan Karaduman (Yildiz Technical University)
    Abstract: The question of whether the price and return series of a stock market exhibit a predictable and tractable pattern is always of interest in both theory and practice. After a brief overview of the literature on market efficiency, the stylized facts about the pre-global crisis, crisis and post-global crisis daily returns of Turkish stock market are explored at the statistical level as an example of the behavioural change in stock market of an emerging country. The weak-form market efficiency is also addressed using a range of statistical and econometric methods, namely unit root tests, variance-ratio tests, testing some anomalies which may falsify the stock market efficiency. The findings indicate there exists some form of deviations from the efficient market hypothesis during the global crisis period.
    Keywords: Stylized facts; Stock Market Efficiency; Global Crisis; Turkish Economy
    JEL: G00 G01 C58
  15. By: Ä°smail CAKMAK (Hacettepe University, Department of Economics, Ankara)
    Abstract: Crises has evolved from one country’s or one region’s crisis to global systemic crisis which can affect the whole world because of the fact that overseas of the capital get easy anymore. In this context, the aim of this study examined economic crises which occur in 20. Century and analyzed their effects on Turkey’s economy. 1929 Great Depression Crisis and 1974 crises were global crises in essence whereas 1958, 1994 and 2000-2001 crises have been identified as Turkey-based crises. The reasons of these crises, Turkey’s interventions to get rid of crises and disruptions in country’s economy were analyzed in this study.
    Keywords: Turkey, Economic Crises, Great Depression, 2001 Crisis, Petrol Crisis
    JEL: G01 B22 E60
  16. By: Deniz Aytaç (Hitit University)
    Abstract: With the purpose of internalization of the adverse externalities in struggling with the environmental pollution, the government excises several of taxes in different ratios for the varieties of energy. It has been determined in my study that the energy which is an effective source of income and suitable for Ramsey pricing due to its negative elasticity as a public income, has been in an increasing course due to the increase in implied taxes between 1998 and 2014 as well as increase in the price indices along with the policies applied and consequently it has not provide efficient results for the purpose of reduction of greenhouse gas. As a result, the important share of the energy taxes within the price structure yields positive results in terms of creating public revenues, however as far as the international trade is concerned; the implied energy taxes and hence high cost of energy can create a situation where it can hamper the competitiveness of Turkey. For the purpose of tackling target environmental pollution by reducing the carbon emissions, the current tax system with its consumption based structure would not serve to the purpose. Realization of this target may be possible by diversification of taxes and other political tools including emission taxes within the financial system.
    Keywords: Energy Prices, Implicit Tax Rates, Greenhouse Gas Emission
    JEL: Q48 H20 H23
  17. By: Hosnieh Mahoozi (Justus-Liebig University, Germany)
    Abstract: The sensitivity of the frequency of poverty to economic growth is one of the central issues of poverty and development discourse. In this paper we estimate the income growth elasticity of poverty and income inequality elasticity of poverty for a panel of 28 provinces of Iran from 1998 to 2009. We also, for the first time, estimate the growth elasticity of multidimensional poverty (estimated via Alkire-Foster method). The results demonstrated the low income growth elasticity of poverty while the income inequality elasticity of poverty is stronger and significant. Similar results are obtained for elasticities of multidimensional poverty. The results suggest that changes in inequality are more important for poverty reduction than in income growth.
    Keywords: Growth elasticity of poverty, income inequality, monetary poverty, Multidimensional poverty.
    JEL: I30 D63
    Date: 2016–06
  18. By: T. O. Benli
    Abstract: The accuracy of the household electricity consumption forecast is vital in taking better cost effective and energy efficient decisions. In order to design accurate, proper and efficient forecasting model, characteristics of the series have to been analyzed. The source of time series data comes from Online Enerjisa System, the system of electrical energy provider in capital of Turkey, which consumers can reach their latest two year period electricity consumptions; in our study the period was May 2014 to May 2016. Various techniques had been applied in order to analyze the data; classical decomposition models; standard typed and also with the centering moving average method, regression equations, exponential smoothing models and ARIMA models. In our study, nine teen different approaches; all of these have at least diversified aspects of methodology, had been compared and the best model for forecasting were decided by considering the smallest values of MAPE, MAD and MSD. As a first step we took the time period May 2014 to May 2016 and found predicted value for June 2016 with the best forecasting model. After finding the best forecasting model and fitted value for June 2016, than validating process had been taken place; we made comparisons to see how well the real value of June 2016 and forecasted value for that specific period matched. Afterwards we made electrical consumption forecast for the following 3 months; June-September 2016 for each of five households individually.
    Date: 2016–07
  19. By: ziadi, azza
    Abstract: The Marrakech Treaty was signed in 1989, included among its objectives to work gradually to achieve free movement of people, goods and capital, and particularly pointing 'the Maghreb strategy for common development'. The latter was adopted by the Council of the Presidency of Ras Lanuf in 1991, with the aim of creating an economic union in four stages: an FTA, a customs union, a common market and an economic union embodied in the unification and coordination of economic policies and development programs. So that is it for the realization of those objectives after about 20years? What future of UMA face new international challenges?.
    Keywords: regional integration,the Arab Maghreb Union
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2016–07–12

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