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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit; Karaoglan, Deniz |
| Abstract: | This study provides causal effect of education on health behaviors in Turkey which is a middle income developing country. Health Survey of the Turkish Statistical Institute for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012 are used. The health behaviors considered are smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercising and one health outcome namely, the body mass index (BMI). We examine the causal effect of education on these health behaviors and the BMI Instrumental variable approach is used in order to address the endogeneity of education to health behaviors. Educational expansion of the early 1960s is used as the source of exogenous variation in years of schooling. Our main findings are as follows. Education does not significantly affect the probability of smoking or exercising. The higher the education level the higher the probability of alcohol consumption and the probability of fruit and vegetable consumption. Higher levels of education lead to higher BMI levels. This study provides a baseline for further research on the various aspects of health behaviors in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Health Behaviors, Education, Instrumental Variable Estimation |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72146&r=ara |
| By: | Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled; Nguyen, Duc Khuong; Teulon, Frédéric |
| Abstract: | This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and particularly following the onset of the Arab Spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country’s monetary policy. We focus on the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach, initially proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973). Our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the Tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks. We also discuss the policy implications of these results, which typically require policy-makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Structural break, Spectral analysis, Inflation persistence |
| JEL: | C1 C14 C5 C51 E3 E31 E6 E60 |
| Date: | 2014–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70481&r=ara |
| By: | Karim El Aynaoui; Uri Dadush; Karim El Mokri; Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | This paper will take stock of the economic performance of Europe and the Arab world, examining how they can do better by working together. The paper pays special attention to the trade, investment, migration and energy linkages between the two regions, as well as those among the Arab countries, as well as how they can be improved to achieve better development. Whereas we present a southern perspective, with Arab countries as main focus, the purpose is to understand the constraints facing both regions, and come up with measures that benefit all parties. The paper begins with a brief overview of Europe and MENA’s economic performance compared to their peers. It goes on to examine the linkages between the two regions as viewed by the MENA region. These include trade, in which energy plays an especially important role, migration, both voluntary and involuntary, and investment. The paper then discusses the political preconditions for advancing on reforms, especially on those that exploit the latent synergies between the two regions, and their feasibility. It concludes with some critical policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaper:pp-16/07&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany; Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt); Deniz Karaoğlan (Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This study provides causal effect of education on health behaviors in Turkey which is a middle income developing country. Health Survey of the Turkish Statistical Institute for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012 are used. The health behaviors considered are smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercising and one health outcome namely, the body mass index (BMI). We examine the causal effect of education on these health behaviors and the BMI Instrumental variable approach is used in order to address the endogeneity of education to health behaviors. Educational expansion of the early 1960s is used as the source of exogenous variation in years of schooling. Our main findings are as follows. Education does not significantly affect the probability of smoking or exercising. The higher the education level the higher the probability of alcohol consumption and the probability of fruit and vegetable consumption. Higher levels of education lead to higher BMI levels. This study provides a baseline for further research on the various aspects of health behaviors in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Health Behaviors, Education, Instrumental Variable Estimation |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1606&r=ara |
| By: | Miniaoui, Hela; Schilirò, Daniele |
| Abstract: | The region of Gulf Arab states has vast reserves of petroleum that make it a vital source of the global economy. The reduction in oil prices and, in general, their high volatility pose strong challenges to the GCC economies. In the present contribution we argue that innovation and entrepreneurship can be the main drivers to diversify and develop the GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE). In fact, in the long-run, diversified economies perform better than mono-sector economies. Moreover, innovation and entrepreneurship are key factors that trigger economic development and contribute to the degree of competitiveness, playing also an important stakeholder role in boosting the overall economic growth rates. Therefore, having an entrepreneurial and innovative capacity is very important in order to facilitate competitiveness and growth in a region such as that of GCC countries. More specifically, in this article we analyze the innovation environment in the GCC countries and their innovation performance. Also we consider the innovation policies, underlining the important role of institutions for innovation. To support our analysis, we take into account of several data and information sources, and surveys. In addition, we provide an overview on entrepreneurship in the GCC countries and grasp the current state of entrepreneurship in these countries. We also aim to identify the conditions to stimulate entrepreneurship and qualify the human capital in order to diversify and develop the non-oil private sector and improve the competitiveness of the GCC economies. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Entrepreneurship; Diversification; Competitiveness; Growth; GCC countries |
| JEL: | L10 L26 M13 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71898&r=ara |
| By: | Kirdar, Murat; Meltem, Dayioglu; Ismet, Koc |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the extension of compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years in Turkey—which increased women’s schooling by more than a year—on marriage and birth outcomes of teenage women, using regression discontinuity design, where we compare month-year of birth cohorts of all women. We find very strong incarceration effects of the new policy; the increased compulsory schooling years reduce the probability of teenage marriage by age 16 and first-births by age 17 substantially. However, these effects are short-lived; they dissapear after age 17 for marriage and after age 18 for first-births because the policy increases the marriage hazard rate at age 17, shortly after these women leave school, and there is no policy effect on the time to first-birth after marriage. These findings indicate either small or no human capital effects of the policy on marriage and first-birth decisions. |
| Keywords: | Teenage marriage; births; education; compulsory schooling; regression-discontinuity; month-year of birth. |
| JEL: | I21 J12 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72119&r=ara |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Turkey and Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa.); İsmail H. Genç (Department of Economics, School of Business and Management, American University, United Arab Emirates); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of crude oil price movements on the stock markets of Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries using weekly data for the period of February 2, 1994-February 26, 2010. The causal link between oil and stock markets are modeled using a Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model in order to reflect changes in Granger causality over time. The MS-VAR model allows testing for both conditional Granger causality and regime predicting causality. The parameter instability tests indicate that causal links between crude oil prices and stock market indexes are highly time varying. The full sample conditional Granger causality tests based on the MS-VAR model, which identifies four regimes each corresponding to causal relationships, rejects both the causal impact of lagged stock market prices on oil prices and the causal impact from crude oil spot prices to stock market indexes in the full sample. However, regime prediction causality from oil prices to GCC stock markets is not rejected for all countries we consider, indicating that oil prices have predictive content for the regime of GCC stock markets. These results encompass the previous findings and offer new insights into the nature of causal relationships between oil price and stock markets in GCC countries. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price; Stock Market, Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries, Markov Switching Model, Time-Varying Granger-causality |
| JEL: | E44 Q43 C32 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201644&r=ara |
| By: | Murat G. Kýrdar; Meltem Dayýoðlu; Ýsmet Koç |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bou:wpaper:2016/01&r=ara |
| By: | Van Der Weide,Roy; Lakner,Christoph; Ianchovichina,Elena |
| Abstract: | Household income surveys often fail to capture top incomes which leads to an underestimation of income inequality. A popular solution is to combine the household survey with data from income tax records, which has been found to result in significant upward corrections of inequality estimates. Unfortunately, tax records are unavailable in many countries, including most of the developing world. In the absence of data from tax records, this study explores the feasibility of using data on house prices to estimate the top tail of the income distribution. In an application to Egypt, where estimates of inequality based on household surveys alone are low by international standards, the study finds strong evidence that inequality is indeed being underestimated by a considerable margin. The Gini index for urban Egypt is found to increase from 36 to 47 after correcting for the missing top tail. |
| Keywords: | Poverty Diagnostics,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Inequality,Emerging Markets,Income |
| Date: | 2016–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7727&r=ara |
| By: | Andrew C. Shaver (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | The unemployed are often inculpated in the production of violence during conflict. A simple yet common argument describes these individuals as disaffected and inclined to perpetrate affectively motivated violence. A second holds that they are drawn to violent political organizations for lack of better outside options. Yet, evidence in support of a general positive relationship between unemployment and violence during conflict is not established. Drawing from a large body of psychological research, I argue that a basic but important relationship has been overlooked: Loss of employment, rather than rendering individuals angry, increases feelings of depression, anxiety, helplessness, and belief in the power of others. Members of this segment of society are more likely than most to reject the use of violence. Drawing on previously unreleased data from a major, multi-million dollar survey effort carried out during the Iraq war, I uncover evidence that psychological findings carry to conflict settings: unemployed Iraqis were consistently less optimistic than other citizens; displayed diminished perceptions of efficacy; and were much less likely to support the use of violence against Coalition forces. |
| JEL: | J21 D74 F51 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:1&r=ara |
| By: | Aomar Ibourk |
| Abstract: | La vision stratégique 2015-2030 constitue une innovation dans le domaine éducatif marocain. Contrairement aux réformes précédentes, cette vision aborde à des problèmes qui ont été longtemps occultés. Parmi ces problèmes figure la qualité de l’enseignement. Si cette dernière meublait toujours les programmes des anciennes réformes, elle est considérée comme l’une des priorités de cette nouvelle vision. L’objectif du présent Policy Brief est de dresser un état des lieux des acquis scolaires, partie intégrante de la qualité de l’enseignement, des élèves inscrits en quatrième année du primaire. Nous nous appuyions sur les enquêtes « Trends in Mathematics and Science Study » (TIMSS) et « Progress In Reading and Literacy Study » (PIRLS) auxquelles le Maroc a participé. La finalité consiste à mettre en lumière les déficits accumulés tout au long de ces dernières années. |
| Keywords: | éducation, Maroc, enseignement, réforme, TIMSS, PIRLS, lecture, mathématique, alphabétisation |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-16/14&r=ara |
| By: | Tunç, Süleyman |
| Abstract: | Sensitivity for the protection of consumers increase more and more every day and the subject becomes an agenda in the public opinion. Studies carried out under different names and legal arrangements in the pre-industrial societies, are accelerated by industrialization. The provisions regarding the Consumer Protection entered into the Turkish Legislation by the Constitution of 1982, have taken their last shape in the Act No. 6502 enacted in the year of 2013 and the relevant Regulations. The internet, which is an indispensable element in the globalized world, has become an important platform where the consumers voiced their complaints. The aim of this study is to analyze the complaints most shared over the internet and to examine the regulations made by the Act No. 6502 related to these complaints. |
| Keywords: | Consumer, Consumer Protection, Complaints, Law No. 6502 |
| JEL: | K19 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69623&r=ara |