nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2016‒06‒18
ten papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Unmet Challenge of Interdependence in the EU-MENA Space: A View from the South By Karim El Aynaoui; Uri Dadush; Karim El Mokri; Rim Berahab
  2. Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake By Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
  3. The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments on Economic Growth: The Case of MENA Region By Gulcin Guresci Pehlivan; Yagmur Saglam
  4. Drivers of Logistics Performance: A Case Study of Turkey By OECD
  5. A Causality and Co-integration Analysis of Some Selected Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility: Empirics from Tunisia By Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad
  6. Time Series Analysis of Financial stability of banks: Evidence from Saudi Arabia By Hassan, Ghassan; Stefano, Fachin
  7. Pass-through du taux de change aux prix au Maroc By Chatri, Abdellatif; Maarouf, Abdelwahab; Ragbi, Aziz
  8. Productivité agricole, intégration et transformation structurelle de l’économie marocaine By Chatri, Abdellatif; Maarouf, Abdelwahab; Ezzahid, Elhaj
  9. Turkiye'de Butce Harcamalari: Farkli Dagilimlarin Ekonomik Buyumeye Etkisi By Umit Ozlale; Mustafa Kerem Yuksel
  10. Yerel Yönetimlerde Değişim Yönetimi By Yıldırım, Mustafa

  1. By: Karim El Aynaoui; Uri Dadush; Karim El Mokri; Rim Berahab
    Abstract: This paper will take stock of the economic performance of Europe and the Arab world, examining how they can do better by working together. The paper pays special attention to the trade, investment, migration and energy linkages between the two regions, as well as those among the Arab countries, as well as how they can be improved to achieve better development. Whereas we present a southern perspective, with Arab countries as main focus, the purpose is to understand the constraints facing both regions, and come up with measures that benefit all parties. The paper begins with a brief overview of Europe and MENA’s economic performance compared to their peers. It goes on to examine the linkages between the two regions as viewed by the MENA region. These include trade, in which energy plays an especially important role, migration, both voluntary and involuntary, and investment. The paper then discusses the political preconditions for advancing on reforms, especially on those that exploit the latent synergies between the two regions, and their feasibility. It concludes with some critical policy recommendations.
    Date: 2016–05
  2. By: Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of sovereign risk on banks' credit provision. We use the August 1999 Marmara Earthquake as an unanticipated exogenous fiscal shock that led to an increase in Turkish government's default risk. Based on administrative data on the universe of banks, we find that banks with higher exposures to government bonds before the earthquake suffered a bigger shock to their balance sheet and decreased lending more than the banks with lower exposures, after the earthquake. A bank that holds half of its total assets in government bonds decreases lending to private sector, measured as private sector loans to asset ratio, 2.5 percentage points. We show a similar effect on foreign banks' lending outside Turkey, where these banks also had high exposure to Turkish government bonds pre-earthquake, easing concerns on earthquake driven changes in credit demand. Our estimates, which trace the impact of an exogenous 100 basis point increase in sovereign spreads due to earthquake to credit supply by banks, explain 55 percent of the actual decline in loan provision during July-October 1999. These findings show that bank-sovereign doom loop can be responsible for a large fraction of credit crunch during an actual sovereign debt crisis.
    JEL: E0 F0 G0 G01 G21
    Date: 2016–06
  3. By: Gulcin Guresci Pehlivan (Department of Economics, Dokuz Eylul University); Yagmur Saglam (Department of Economics, Dokuz Eylul University)
    Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to investigate relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth for MENA countries from 1990 to 2014. We firstly tested heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence and found that all series have homogeneity and cross sectional dependence. For that reason, Hadri Kruzomi and Pesaran et al. Multifactor Error Structure panel unit root tests were used. For obtaining long-run relationship, we used Weterlund’s panel and group cointegration tests. The results supported the long-run relationship, therefore, we used Common Correlated Effect Model, thanks to this method, and coefficients for each cross-section unit could be calculated individually.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, economic growth, MENA, panel cointegration
    JEL: F21 O47 C23
    Date: 2016–06
  4. By: OECD
    Abstract: Good logistics performance is an essential component of stimulating economic development. This report explores the drivers of, and barriers to, logistics performance through a case study of Turkey’s trade and transport sector. Firstly, it explains the importance of logistics performance. Next, it reviews the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) used to assess trade and transportation facilitation friendliness of countries. It then discusses Turkey’s performance against each dimension of the LPI, highlighting the country’s challenges and achievements. Lastly, the report uses this understanding to propose and catagorise a series of general policy actions available for improving logistics performance.
    Date: 2015–04–01
  5. By: Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of some selected socio-economic factors on fertility rate in Tunisia over the period of 1971 to 2014. Philips Perron (PP) unit root test is used for testing the stationarity of the variables. For examining the co-integration among the variables of the model, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration is used. Causality among the variables of the model is examined with the help of Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Function. The estimated results show that selected variables of the model has mix order of integration. Long run results of the study show that female education, urbanization have a significant negative relationship with the fertility rate in Tunisia. The results reveal that life expectancy and per capita income have positive and significant relationship with fertility in Tunisia. The value of ECT reveals that short needs more than 5 years to converge in the long run equilibrium. The results of Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Function reveal that all independent variables have causal relationship with the dependent variable. The study suggests that socio-economic improvement is a key in reducing fertility rate in Tunisia.
    Keywords: Fertility, urbanization, per capita income
    JEL: D31 J13 O18
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Hassan, Ghassan; Stefano, Fachin
    Abstract: Islamic banks are characterized by their compliance to Islamic laws and practices, primarily the prohibition of interest and the trading of loans. During the 2008–2009 financial crisis, when a large number of conventional banks announced bankruptcy, no Islamic bank failures were reported. However, there is no clear consensus in the literature on the question of whether Islamic banks are more or less stable than conventional banks. To shed some light on this issue, we studied a sample of Saudi banks using quarterly data over a period centered on the 2008 financial crisis. Careful analysis of the data suggested first of all that many of the variables typically used in financial stability studies may be non-stationary, a methodological point largely ignored in the literature. Using time-series methods suitable for this type of data, we concluded that individual heterogeneity may matter more than either the conventional or Islamic nature of the banks. Concentrating on the largest banks, we find the Islamic banks contribute positively to the stability of the system.
    Keywords: Financial crisis, financial stability, z-score model, Islamic banks, Saudi Arabia.
    JEL: C1 G21 G28
    Date: 2014–06–17
  7. By: Chatri, Abdellatif; Maarouf, Abdelwahab; Ragbi, Aziz
    Abstract: In this paper, we use SVAR model to evaluate the degree of exchanges rate pass-through to domestic prices. Our results suggest that the responsiveness of the later is low overall, decreases over time and it is higher for tradables than non-tradables goods. The low inflation environment, the modernization of the monetary policy framework and the country's import structure are the main factors explaining these results. This would facilitate the implementation of a more flexible exchange rate regime and explicit long- run inflation goal.
    Keywords: Pass-through, exchange rate, monetary policy, inflation
    JEL: E52 F31
    Date: 2016–05–25
  8. By: Chatri, Abdellatif; Maarouf, Abdelwahab; Ezzahid, Elhaj
    Abstract: This paper aims to verify how the performance of the agricultural sector affects the process of structural transformation of the Moroccan economy. It analyzes the dynamics of productivity in two ways. First, the speed of convergence of agricultural productivity to the level recorded by other sectors of the economy. The second, the decomposition of the change in aggregate productivity into the structural changes or reallocation effect and the within or intra effect. Furthermore, the paper uses the Input-Output methodology for measuring the degree of integration of the Moroccan economy and seeing if there was or not emergence of new leading sectors.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Input-Output Analysis, Morocco, productivity, structural transformation.
    JEL: C5 C67 E23 E24 O10 O13 O47
    Date: 2015–07–21
  9. By: Umit Ozlale (Ozyegin University, Department of Economics); Mustafa Kerem Yuksel (Turk Hava Kurumu University, International Trade and Finance Department)
    Abstract: Bu calisma, Turkiye'nin 2001 krizi sonrasinda uyguladigi maliye politikasina butce harcamalari perspektifinden baktiktan sonra, 2016 ve sonrasinda beklenen dusuk buyume doneminde genisleyici bir maliye politikasinin ekonomik buyume uzerindeki etkilerini tartismaktadir. Calismanin son bolumunde ise kamu harcamalarinin buyumeye katki verecek sekilde dagitilmasi, dinamik bir model cercevesinde incelenmektedir. Sonuclar, 2001 sonrasinda izlenen maliye politikasinin butce disiplini uzerindeki olumlu etkilerini gostermekle beraber, son donemde butcenin harcama katiliginda ve yapisal butce dengesinde bazi olumsuzluklari da tartismaya acmaktadir. Bununla beraber, mevcut kamu borc stoku ve butce disiplini altinda, kamunun tuketim harcamalari yoluyla onumuzdeki dusuk buyume doneminde ekonomiye bir ivme kazandirabilecegi sonucu da elde edilmektedir. Yuksek buyume doneminde ise genisleyici bir maliye politikasinin olumsuz bir etki yapacagi da bulgular arasindadir. Kamu harcamalarinin dagiliminin incelendigi son bolumde, kamunun uretimi arttiracak altyapi yatirimlarina daha fazla agirlik vermesi gerektigi bulunmaktadir. Egitim ve sagliga ayrilan kamu sermaye stokunun buyume uzerindeki etkileri ise fiziksel altyapi yatirimlarina ayrilan kamu sermaye stoku kadar yuksek degildir. Harcama dagilimi ile ilgili bir baska bulgu ise kamunun sermaye yatirimlarina daha fazla agirlik verirken hane halki transferlerini azaltmasi gerektigidir. Son olarak, kamunun idari harcamalarinda verimlilik yoluyla saglanacak bir azalmanin toplumsal fayda uzerinde onemli ve pozitif etkileri gorulmektedir. Bu sonuc da, onumuzdeki donemde kamu verimliligini arttirip idari harcamalari kisacak onlemlerin bir politika onceligi olmasi gerektigini soylemektedir.
    Date: 2016–06
  10. By: Yıldırım, Mustafa
    Abstract: Local governments are establishments which is governed by organs selected by local people and which are established in order to provide common needs of a local community and which provides public properties and public services. They emerge as a result of economic, social, administrative and political reasons. In Turkey, which has traditions of powerful centralized administration for centuries, formal localization is within the bounds of possibility within a short period but it is not rational to consider that local administrations would work actively and productively. In this context, it can be said that it is possible to base variation method in local administrations on long term strategic plans and to restructure in the end of an ardous process.
    Keywords: Change Management, Strategic Planning, Local Administrations
    JEL: M00
    Date: 2015

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