nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2016‒04‒09
nine papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Arab Spring - Islamic Winter - North-African Exodus. An explanation of the political economy of Mediterranean long-run dynamics By Hanappi, Hardy
  2. The regional pricing of risk: An empirical investigation of the MENA equity determinants By Guesmi, Khaled; Kablan, Sandrine; Belgacem, Aymen
  3. Poverty trends in Turkey By Sirma Demir Șeker; Stephen P. Jenkins
  4. North Africa - Working paper - From Resource Curse to Rent Curse in the MENA Region By AfDB AfDB
  5. Turkey assessment report 2014 By OECD
  6. MENA export performance and specialization -- the role of financial sector development and governance By Wood,Christina A.; Yang,Judy
  7. Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in net exporting nations? By Mehmet Balcilar; Riza Demirer; Talat Ulussever
  8. The Geography of External Voting: The 2011 Tunisian Election Abroad By Thibaut Jaulin
  9. Energy, Environment, and Economy Interactions in Iran with Cointegrated and ECM Simultaneous Model By Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Seifi Aloo, Alireza; Khodaparast Shirazi, Jalil

  1. By: Hanappi, Hardy
    Abstract: This paper sets out to explain the links between the upheavals in Arab states in spring 2011 and the current wave of immigration in Europe. As it turns out, an understanding of these dynamics involves not only the tightly interwoven net of economic and political motives and actions, it also is necessary to understand the working of ideological warfare (including religions) in a new age of information and communication technology. Thus there is the intermediate step of an ‘Islamic Winter’ between the ‘Arab Spring’ and the ‘North-African Exodus’.
    Keywords: Arab Spring, Radical Islamism, Refugee Crisis
    JEL: F22 F54 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2016–04–05
  2. By: Guesmi, Khaled; Kablan, Sandrine; Belgacem, Aymen
    Abstract: Using a sample of five-MENA emerging countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, and Turkey) during the period 1996-2013, this study highlights the main factors that might influence regional integration of stock markets. We propose an advantageous econometric approach based on a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) to explore major sources of time-varying risks. We specifically apply the multivariate BEKK-GARCH process to simultaneously estimate the ICAPM for each country. The study puts in evidence that inflation, volatility of exchange rates, yield spread, current account deficit, dividend yield and economic growth are among the key determinants of regional integration in the MENA context whatever is the measure of exchange rate risk.
    Keywords: Multivariate GARCH, regional integration, ICAPM, MENA
    JEL: C32 F36 G12
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Sirma Demir Șeker; Stephen P. Jenkins
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence about poverty trends in Turkey between 2003 and 2012 and the factors accounting for them. We give particular attention to issues of statistical inference, and the choice of the poverty line and the poverty measure. Our robust conclusion is that absolute poverty declined rapidly between 2003 and 2008 but fell only slightly between 2008 and 2012. Changes in relative poverty were negligible throughout. Using decomposition methods, we argue that the declines in the absolute poverty rate are largely accounted for by changes in the rate of economic growth rather than by distributional changes or changes in population composition.
    Keywords: poverty; Turkey; poverty dominance; consumption; basic needs; poverty line; poverty decomposition
    JEL: C12 D31 I32
    Date: 2015
  4. By: AfDB AfDB
    Date: 2016–03–16
  5. By: OECD
    Abstract: Each year SIGMA produces assessment reports as a contribution to the EC's annual reports on EU candidate countries and potential candidates, as well as to its programming of technical assistance. These reports assess progress made in public administration reform by our beneficiary countries. The report for Turkey analyses and takes stock of progress achieved by this country in 2014, with an aim to also provide inputs into its reform agenda. It focuses on public finance management and public procurement.
    Date: 2014–04–30
  6. By: Wood,Christina A.; Yang,Judy
    Abstract: Industry and financial profiles of MENA firms may underpin the observation that MENA country exports are below potential and skewed toward low value-added goods that are unable to spur rapid job creation and inclusive growth. To assess this link, the paper combines analysis highlighting external financing as a determinant of export performance, and analysis highlighting sector asset tangibility and governance. Why? Because high value-added sectors tend to have higher shares of intangible assets and to create innovative products requiring substantial research and development or investments, thereby making these sectors more dependent on external financing. Using sector- and firm-level export data with country-level indicators, the results indicate that countries with more developed financial sectors and stronger governance tend to have higher exports from sectors that are more reliant on finance external to the firm, and lower exports from sectors with higher shares of tangible assets. Interestingly, financial sector development boosts exports less in MENA than in non-MENA countries. To foster expansion of higher value exports, the results suggest a critical need for: (i) deeper financial sector development that strengthens market-based systems, such as asset registries and credit reporting agencies, and (ii) strengthening of legal and governance frameworks.
    Keywords: Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2016–03–28
  7. By: Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Riza Demirer (Department of Economics and Finanace, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville); Talat Ulussever (Department of Economics and Finance, College of Industrial Management,King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals)
    Abstract: This paper examines whether speculation in the global oil market contributes to herd behavior in the stock markets of net exporting nations. Using firm level data from the Gulf Arab stock markets, we show that investors display herd behavior during periods of high volatility while anti-herding is prevalent during calm markets. Anti-herding in the stock market is also found to be positively related to speculative activities in the global oil market as investors use signals from the oil market in their trades by trading away from the market consensus. We argue that traders take the speculative signals from the oil market as a sign of positive expectations and try to generate superior profits by going against the crowd in their local market.
    Keywords: Herd behavior, Equity return dispersion, Crude Oil, Speculative ratio, Markov switching.
    JEL: C32 G14 G15
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Thibaut Jaulin (Sciences Po)
    Keywords: Tunisia
    Date: 2014–09
  9. By: Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Seifi Aloo, Alireza; Khodaparast Shirazi, Jalil
    Abstract: Nobody on the planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change. This study aims to arrange the various socioeconomic elasticities of environmental pollution in order of priority, depending on the length of time period, to establish the most effective policy. We employed a simultaneous equations system to find out the various socioeconomic elasticities in the long run and short run in Iran during 1974-2012. Based on the results, per capita CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption show the strongest interactions (relationships and elasticities) in the equations system as a whole in the long run. Moreover, it is the trade openness, labour force, financial development, and urbanization which show the most decisive effects in the short run. So the effectiveness of the system variables depends on the time period. Trade openness, labour force, and financial development play the most leading role in the short run, notwithstanding their limited role in the long run. However, energy consumption elasticity of CO2 emissions and urbanization elasticity of energy consumption are among the largest elasticities both in short run and long run. Therefore, energy consumption, economic growth and urbanization should be reduced and financial sector should be grown to decrease the environmental pollution. Moreover, economic growth is an effective factor for the long run; and trade openness and financial development are effective for the short run but urbanization and energy consumption are influential for both the long run and short run policies.
    Keywords: Energy Consumption; Environmental Pollution; Economic Growth
    JEL: Q4 Q5
    Date: 2016

This nep-ara issue is ©2016 by Paul Makdissi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.