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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Ali Fakih; May Ibrahim (Sans nom) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes time-sensitive data on a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. It aims to assess the impact of the steep influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan on the country’s labor market since the onset of the conflict in Syria (March 2011). As of August 2014, nearly 3 million registered Syrians have sought refuge in neighboring countries (Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey), according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Jordan and Lebanon are hosting the majority of them. This paper utilizes data regarding unemployment rates, employment rates, labor force participation, the number of refugees, and economic activity at the level of governorates. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology is used to examine time series data from the most affected governorates in Jordan. The empirical results of Granger causality tests and impulse response functions show that there is no relationship between the influx of Syrian refugees and the Jordanian labor market. Our results are verified through a set of robustness checks. |
| Keywords: | Forced refugees; Host country; Labor market; VAR model, |
| JEL: | J61 H56 N45 |
| Date: | 2016–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2016s-05&r=ara |
| By: | Shima'a Hanafy (University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | We empirically analyse the determinants of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in Egypt employing a novel panel dataset of 26 Egyptian governorates for the period 1992–2008. Using the case of Arab FDI to Egypt, we also investigate whether FDI location determinants are different depending on similarity of culture and language between FDI source and host region. Our results indicate that domestic private investment, well-functioning Free Zones, and labour abundance positively affect FDI location. In contrast to results for other countries, we find no significant effect of concentration of previous FDI stocks on the location of inward FDI. Moreover, regional investment preferential policies in Egypt—with the exception of Free Zones—do not affect the unequal spatial FDI distribution. Finally, we find that the location of Arab FDI inflows to Egypt is not sensitive to the usual determinants. Arab investors are more willing to invest in less investment-agglomerated areas and are less affected by economic considerations and incentives. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, FDI location, agglomeration, cultural similarity, regional FDI, Arab countries |
| JEL: | F21 E22 R12 O53 Z10 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201513&r=ara |
| By: | Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De; Yang,Judy; Inan,Osman Kaan |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Turkey has been host to more than two million Syrians seeking refuge. Initially concentrated in the southeastern regions, these refugees now reside throughout the country. There are many questions from policy makers regarding the impact of the population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection on the host community. This paper examines the impact of migrants on regional host communities from a poverty perspective. The paper does not find any negative impacts on poverty for the host community from the increasing population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection as of 2013, despite the high poverty rates experienced among the recent migrants. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economic Development,Pro-Poor Growth,Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Housing&Human Habitats |
| Date: | 2016–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7542&r=ara |
| By: | Sarah JOHNSEN (Independent researcher in Social Sciences. Based in the United Arab Emirates) |
| Abstract: | The United Arab Emirates are resolutely diversifying their economy away from oil dependency. A top-down commitment to include the Emirati workforce into an increasing knowledge-based economy is visible in the federal efforts undertaken to promote entrepreneurship. A federal entity dedicated to the development of SMEs acknowledged the synergistic role social enterprises could play in merging social inclusion and economic development. This entity wholly funds and incubates a nonprofit establishment, acting as market intermediary for Emirati artisans. This paper builds on the methodology and findings of a dissertation for a Master in Development Studies which aimed at providing an insight of this non-profit establishment’s potential to become a social enterprise. Given the experimental nature of the research, a pragmatic approach was followed. An iterative process underpinned the concept of social enterprise from established literature, re-visited the concept through a social constructionist lens as an emerging topic in the GCC region, and benchmarked the non-profit establishment against two selected social enterprise frameworks, based on data analysis from documents and interviews. This paper focuses on the social constructionist perspective as a method to re-visit the imported construct that is social enterprise in the UAE context, and connect it with the constructs inherent to this specific environment. This paper aspires to add to the burgeoning literature in the field of social enterprise in the GCC context, while illustrating with the example of the UAE context, the relevance of social constructionism as a universal method to investigate the concept of social enterprise in their own context. |
| Keywords: | Benchmark, culture preservation, capacity building, economic empowerment, public sector, social constructionism, social enterprise, social inclusion, United Arab Emirates |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crc:wpaper:1516&r=ara |
| By: | Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De; Inan,Osman Kaan; Yang,Judy |
| Abstract: | Access to finance is a key component of poverty reduction, as it enables individuals to make economic decisions that can improve their welfare. The equality of access among different groups in society is also crucial for correctly allocating the positive benefits of improved financial services. In Turkey, bank account, debit card, and credit card ownership, which can serve as the main indicators of access to finance, are at a remarkably high level. However, adjusting the coverage rate of these indicators by controlling for age, education, gender, an income reveals that gender is the main source of inequality in Turkey at the individual level. Despite the progress made in addressing the gender disparity in access to finance between 2011 and 2014, females in Turkey continue to be financially less included. Moreover, Turkey's low level of savings and high rate of informal borrowing compared with its peers diminish individuals'resilience to future shocks. Promisingly, Turkey has been able to improve its rate of savings significantly over the past few years, although it continues to be among the countries that save at a lower level. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2016–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7541&r=ara |
| By: | Shima'a Hanafy (University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the main characteristics of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Egypt using an unpublished dataset for FDI in 27 Egyptian governorates covering the period 1972–2009. Special attention is given to the geographical distribution of FDI, both at an aggregate and at the sectoral level. The paper is the first article of a larger empirical project on FDI in Egypt at the governorate level. Our dataset shows that FDI is unevenly distributed across Egyptian governorates. More than 60% of ‘non-petroleum greenfield FDI’ stock has been accumulated by two governorates, Cairo and Giza, and roughly 90% of FDI stock targets only 10 governorates. Tracing two spatial concentration indices of FDI inflows (Gini coefficient and coefficient of variation) over four decades, we find that the unequal geographical distribution of FDI decreased until the mid/late 1990s. This trend, however, did not continue when there was a substantial increase of FDI inflows in the 2000s. Moreover, we find differences in the degree of geographical concentration of FDI between various economic sectors. Service FDI shows the strongest concentration (mostly articulated in the ICT and finance sectors), while manufacturing FDI is the most geographically dispersed. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct investment, sectoral FDI, regional FDI, Egypt |
| JEL: | F21 E22 R12 O53 Z10 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201512&r=ara |
| By: | Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De; Yang,Judy; Inan,Osman Kaan; Nguyen,Minh Cong; Montes,Jose |
| Abstract: | In the past decade, Turkey has experienced a notable level of poverty reduction at all levels (extreme poor, poor, and vulnerable). The steady decline in poverty was also resilient to the decline in gross domestic product per capita growth during the crisis. However, although poverty convergence was strong before the financial crisis, there was an absence of regional convergence afterward. This paper analyzes poverty trends, poverty convergence, economic mobility, and the determinants of poverty reduction at the regional level over the period 2006?13. The analysis finds that agricultural growth in the east was an important contributor to Turkey's regional poverty reduction. In additionally, employment growth in the services sectors boosted poverty reduction throughout the entire country. From a fiscal perspective, the amount of per capita central spending is also linked to poverty reduction, although more strongly for regions in the west. |
| Keywords: | Subnational Economic Development,Regional Economic Development,Pro-Poor Growth,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2016–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7540&r=ara |
| By: | Bachmair,Fritz Florian |
| Abstract: | Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper proposes a four-step structure for analyzing and measuring credit risk: (i) defining key characteristics to determine the choice of a risk analysis approach; (ii) analyzing risk drivers; (iii) quantifying risks; and (iv) applying risk analyses and quantification to the design of risk management tools. This structure is based on an assessment of approaches discussed in academia and applied in practice. The paper demonstrates how the four steps of credit risk management are applied in Colombia, Sweden, and Turkey. It also discusses how the proposed framework is applied in Indonesia as it develops a credit risk management framework for sovereign guarantees. Country experiences show that although sovereign risk managers can draw on insights from credit risk management in the private sector, academic literature, and practices in other countries, approaches to risk management need to be highly context-specific. Key differentiating factors include characteristics of the guarantee and on-lending portfolio, the sovereign?s specific risk exposure, the availability of market information and data, and resources and capacity in the public sector. Developing a sound risk analysis and measurement framework requires significant investments in resources, capacity building, and time. Governments should view this process as iterative and long-term. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress |
| Date: | 2016–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7538&r=ara |