nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2016‒01‒18
five papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Relation between Money, Interest and Consumption in Developing Countries: The Case of Turkey By Yılmaz, Engin; Süslü, Bora
  2. Forecasting tourist arrivals to Turkey By Yılmaz, Engin
  3. Gender and Spatial Disparity of Multidimensional Poverty in Iran By Hosnieh Mahoozi
  4. Estimating Aggregate Demand in Egypt By Emara, Noha; Mordos, Elise; Tyagi, Sonika
  5. الإسكان الميسر بدول الخليج By Elasrag, Hussein

  1. By: Yılmaz, Engin; Süslü, Bora
    Abstract: As the basis of the current economic approach, comes to the fore the intertemporal utility function of decision-making economic units. Decision-making economic units decide their expenditures upon the substitution of their future utility for present utility. They defer present consumption and head for making savings. Yet, the exact opposite may also apply. Changes in the policy decisions of monetary authority have impacts on the intertemporal utility maximization of economic units as well. In this study, the question whether the amount or the price of the money affects the aggregate demand in Turkish economy was examined within the framework of dynamic optimization. The results showed that in Turkish economy where nominal income expectations are high, the resource and loan creation would increase and that when the central bank increase the interest rates to hinder this process, consumption would head up even more.
    Keywords: New Neo Classical Synthesis, Consumption, Monetary Policy
    JEL: E51 E52 E58
    Date: 2015–09
  2. By: Yılmaz, Engin
    Abstract: Modeling and forecasting techniques of the tourist arrivals are many and diverse. Th ere is no unique model that exactly outperforms the other models in every situation. Actually a few studies have realized modeling and forecasting the tourist arrivals to Turkey and these studies have not focused on the total tourist arrivals. Th ese studies have focused on the tourist arrivals to Turkey country by country (or OECD countries). In addition to this, structural time series models have not been used in modeling and forecasting the tourist arrivals to Turkey. In this sense, this paper is the fi rst study which uses the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and the structural time series model in order to forecast the total tourist arrivals to Turkey. Two diff erent models are developed to forecast the total tourist arrivals to Turkey using monthly data for the period 2002-2013. Th e results of the study show that two models provide accurate predictions but the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model produces more accurate short-term forecasts than the structural time series model. It is noted that the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model shows a very successful performance in the forecasting the total tourist arrivals to Turkey.
    Keywords: structural time series models; arima; tourist arrivals; tourist demand; Turkey
    JEL: C53
    Date: 2015–12–28
  3. By: Hosnieh Mahoozi
    Abstract: Demonstrating the frequency, intensity and disparity of poverty among the various gender and spatial subgroups of Iranian society is the main intention of this paper. Respecting the demands, to the extent allowed by the available data, of SenÕs (1987) capabilities approach to the assessment of human well-being, this paper estimates multidimensional poverty in Iran. This study uses the Alkire-Foster method, which is flexible enough to use in various data and dimensional contexts and is able to capture the intensity as well as the incidence of poverty. In order to estimate disparity of poverty, multilevel regression models have been utilized with the premise that households are nested within provinces. Therefore, the disparity in the incidence of poverty -between and within provinces- was estimated using a multilevel logit regression model, while the variation in the intensity of poverty among the poor was estimated by applying a multilevel linear model. The results reveal a remarkable disparity among different subgroups in Iran in which female-headed households and rural households are heavily disadvantaged compared to their peers in male-head and urban households.
    Date: 2015–06
  4. By: Emara, Noha; Mordos, Elise; Tyagi, Sonika
    Abstract: This econometric study seeks to determine the most important factors of aggregate demand in Egypt so as to provide insight into how this developing nation can grow economically in the coming years. The Ordinary Least Squares estimation method was used in order to estimate nominal GDP for the time period 1975 to 2009. Based on the results the real interest rate, the inflation rate, the growth rate of government expenditure, and the growth rate of the money supply are the most statistically and economically significant factors of the growth rate of nominal GDP for the coming year. A one percent change in the growth rate of the previous year government expenditure is predicted to cause the growth rate of the current year nominal GDP to increase by 54%. The role of government expenditures on public sector wage expansion is discussed in this study as to shed light on this factor’s significant influence on income inequality post-1975 in Egypt, which will continue to impact nominal GDP and social conditions for the developing nation in the coming years.
    Keywords: aggregate demand; growth; Egypt
    JEL: C1 E2 E6
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Elasrag, Hussein
    Abstract: The right to adequate housing is internationally recognized as an important component of the basic human right to an adequate standard of living and the United Nations Housing Rights Program UN-HABITAT agenda states that "Governments should take appropriate action in order to promote, protect and ensure the full and progressive realization of the right to adequate housing." As we have seen GCC governments are making great strides to improve the housing situation in the region. They are investing their oil revenues not only in education but also in housing projects. However, it is vital that governments make affordable housing a national priority. They should take into consideration the rising aspirations of a growing young population and look for new ways to establish affordable housing projects. The Paper concludes with recommendations that can help with releasing the housing problem and deals with the local economy and environmental conditions.
    Keywords: Affordable Housing , GCC countries, Housing Rights
    JEL: H53 H75 I3 R31 Z18
    Date: 2014–11

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