nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2015‒08‒07
six papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Energy Subsidies, Public Investment and Endogenous Growth By Mundaca, Gabriela
  2. Food gap and food security of sugar in Egypt By SHEHATA, Gaber Ahmed Bassyouni
  3. Does longer compulsory education equalize schooling by gender and rural/urban residence ? By K?rdar,Murat G.; Day?o?lu,Meltem; Koç,?smet
  4. Water Quality Assessment SAM/CGE and Satellite Accounts Integrated Framework By Osman, Rehab; Ferrari, Emanuele; McDonald, Scott
  5. Labor migration, poverty and the long-term development impact of international migration By Kusunose, Yoko; Rignall, Karen
  6. Dette publique, qualité institutionnelle et croissance économique dans les pays de la région MENA : analyse par la méthode des moments généralisés By Boukhatem, Jamel; Kaabi, Malèk

  1. By: Mundaca, Gabriela
    Abstract: This paper deals with impacts of fossil fuel subsidy reform on economic growth, focusing mostly on the countries of the Middle East and East Africa (MENA) region. We first develop a theoretical growth model, and use it to demonstrate that a country can achieve higher levels of economic growth if the government reduces its energy subsidies. Our empirical work confirms the main results from the theoretical model. That is, a country that initially subsidizes its fossil fuels, and then eliminates or reduces these subsidies, will as a result experience higher economic GDP per capita growth, higher employment, and greater levels of labor force participation, especially among the youth. These effects are strongest in countries where fuel subsidies are generally high, such as those in the MENA Region. We here predict that for a given level of subsidy, a 20 cents average increase in the gasoline and diesel price per liter can increase the GDP per capita growth rate by about 0.46 percent and 0.24 percent, respectively. In the MENA countries, savings in subsidies seem to be earmarked by the region’s governments to health expenditures, education expenditures and public investment in infrastructure. These channels appear to be strong contributing factors to higher long-run growth when fuel subsidies are reduced.
    Keywords: energy subsidies, economic growth, public investment
    JEL: Q3 Q4 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2015–07–16
  2. By: SHEHATA, Gaber Ahmed Bassyouni
    Abstract: The research aims mainly to study food gap and food security of sugar in Egypt through studying of several sub-goals represented in: estimating models of general trends function for some economic indicators of sugar in Egypt during the period (1995- 2012), studying of the most important indicators of food security of sugar, estimating the size of the food gap of sugar and knowledge of the most important factors responsible for, and studying the policies and means to achieve food security of sugar in Egypt. Descriptive and quantitative analysis were used. The study depends on secondary data, which collected from local and foreign sources during the period (1995-2012). A study models of the general trend function for economic indicators showed that each of the total domestic production of sugar, domestic consumption, and the average per capita consumption, the amount of sugar imports, food gap of sugar, the price of Egyptian imports of sugar and periods of coverage of domestic production and the quantity of imports for consumption daily from sugar, and found that all of these variables has taken a general trend upward morally statistically significant at the level of probability (0.01) with the exception of a variable of coverage period of local production for daily consumption which took a general trend decreasing, and also did not identify the statistical significance of the variables of self-sufficiency rate and the period of coverage of imports for daily consumption , while the annual growth rates differed according to each variable. The conduct study show that the most important variables specific to the food gap of sugar are all from the local production of sugar, the average real price of Egyptian imports of sugar where it was found that the impact of each of these two variables on sugar gap be negative. The study showed that the strategic stock for sugar is estimated at 1.45 million tons and the average local consumption of sugar is estimated at about 2.17 million tons during the study period (1995-2012), thus estimated food security of about 0.84 is therefore required to take various actions which lead to increase the size of the strategic stock of sugar enough for half of it needs for domestic consumption even come close to the value of suitable coefficient of sugar food security The study showed that the policies and means to achieve sugar food security include horizontal agricultural development policy, vertical agricultural development policy, the policy of rationalizing the consumption of sugar, policy of consumer subsidy of sugar, and the policy of diversifying sources of imported sugar. In the light of the results of the study illustrated by research it has been possible to reach some of the following recommendations: 1- It is necessary to intensify efforts to agricultural extension and agricultural research centers in collaboration with factories engineers and agriculture departments and supervisors agricultural awareness of the importance of agriculture resistance to pests and diseases that affect the crop, and help them get on pesticides is harmful to the environment to do so. 2- Increasing of sugar production through the expansion of sugar crops, particularly sugar beet to the lack of water needs compared to sugar cane harvest in the new land. 3- Increasing of sugar productivity crops through dissemination of sugar varieties of high productivity and to suit every center of administrative centers in Egypt. 4- Rationalizing the consumption of sugar during dismiss the size of the loss of sugar. 5- to achieve food security has to be the need to develop awareness programs for the application of planning policy breeds where it is one of the most important determinants of the demand for i Egyptian imports of sugar. 6- it is important to put a national strategy to increase the self-sufficiency ratio of sugar with the need to import and distribute the amounts of diversification between different sources in order to avoid what might happen from political pressure in favor of the Egyptian economy is in the case of international political conditions change. 7- It is necessary to study the reduction commitments of support granted to the production and export in the sugar-exporting countries in order to reduce the negative effects on the Egyptian Savin.
    Keywords: Food gap, Food security, Sugar, Egypt, Agribusiness,
    Date: 2015–05
  3. By: K?rdar,Murat G.; Day?o?lu,Meltem; Koç,?smet
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of the extension of compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years in Turkey in 1997?which involved substantial investment in school infrastructure?on schooling outcomes and, in particular, on the equality of these outcomes between men and women, and urban and rural residents using the Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys. This policy is peculiar because it also changes the sheepskin effects (signaling effects) of schooling, through its redefinition of the schooling tiers. The policy is also interesting due to its large spillover effects on post-compulsory schooling as well as its remarkable overall effect; for instance, we find that the completed years of schooling by age 17 increases by 1.5 years for rural women. The policy equalizes the educational attainment of urban and rural children substantially. The urban-rural gap in the completed years of schooling at age 17 falls by 0.5 years for men and by 0.7 to 0.8 years for women. However, there is no evidence of a narrowing gender gap with the policy. On the contrary, the gender gap in urban areas in post-compulsory schooling widens.
    Keywords: Education For All,Population Policies,Regional Economic Development,Secondary Education,Primary Education
    Date: 2015–07–24
  4. By: Osman, Rehab; Ferrari, Emanuele; McDonald, Scott
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,
    Date: 2015–04
  5. By: Kusunose, Yoko; Rignall, Karen
    Abstract: We estimate the present-day effects on rural Moroccan households of past international migration--specifically, recruitment to work in the French mines sixty years--and its associated remittances and pensions. Using cluster analysis twice—once to categorize households as poor and non-poor in the early 1960s and again to categorize the directly-descended household in 2014—we identify the households that moved upward economically over the intervening period. Seemingly-unrelated probit estimation is then used to gauge the degree to which migration facilitated this process. We find that migration significantly increased the likelihood that the sending family's current-day members would presently be non-poor. Surprisingly, we also find that the simple act of applying to migrate also has a similar effect. For the poorest (in the pre-migration period) of households, recruitment for work could well have been exogenous. For these households, migration to work in the French mines is, by far, the strongest predictor of escaping poverty sixty years later.
    Keywords: migration, poverty, Morocco, International Development, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Boukhatem, Jamel; Kaabi, Malèk
    Abstract: Despite the diversity of theoretical studies, the problematic of the public debt – economic growth relationship remains a controversial issue. The aim of the paper is to complement the existing evidence focusing on MENA countries. Using the efficient system-GMM estimators, our results show a non-linear relationship between public debt and growth. When public debt to GDP lies below the threshold of 15%, public debt boosts economic growth. The results of robustness tests show that public debt stimulates economic conditions in the countries with sound macroeconomic policies and stable institutions.
    Keywords: public debt, threshold effect, institutional quality, panel data, GMM
    JEL: C33 F34 H63 O43
    Date: 2015–07–20

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