nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2015‒07‒04
three papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The rocky road to post-compulsory education in Turkey: Intergenerational educational mobility By Ayca Akarcay-Gurbuz; Sezgin Polat
  2. Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring By Asongu, Simplice; Nwachukwu, Jacinta
  3. Risk, capital and financial crisis By Ghosh, Saibal

  1. By: Ayca Akarcay-Gurbuz (Galatasaray University and GIAM); Sezgin Polat (Galatasaray University and GIAM)
    Abstract: We estimate the intergenerational transmission of education in Turkey using micro-data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses. We construct a unique historical series of provincial enrollment rates by gender to isolate the environmental effect on parental education using an instrumental variable (IV) approach. The results reveal that the effect of maternal education is not linear and is stronger particularly for daughters. Intergenerational educational inequality decreases over time, with a greater improvement in the case of sons. Village residence and poor labor market conditions are other significant obstacles to girls’ compared to boys’ post-compulsory education.
    Date: 2015–06
  2. By: Asongu, Simplice; Nwachukwu, Jacinta
    Abstract: The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.
    Keywords: Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth
    JEL: N17 O11 O20 O47 P52
    Date: 2014–08–13
  3. By: Ghosh, Saibal
    Abstract: Employing data on over 100 banks for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries during 1996-2011, we test the relation between risk and capital. The findings indicate that banks generally increase capital in response to an increase in risk, and not vice versa. Second, there is an uneven impact of regulatory pressure and market discipline on banks attitude towards risk and capital. Additionally, Islamic banks increased their capital as compared to conventional banks.
    Keywords: Z-score; capital; 2SLS; banks; Gulf Cooperation Council
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2014–03–10

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