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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Mtiraoui, Abderraouf |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to study the interaction between the control of corruption, investment and economic growth in the MENA region. Our empirical essay attempts to clarify the direct and indirect control of corruption on economic growth through investment in the period 1984-2012 in the MENA region while using the model of simultaneous equations. |
| Keywords: | Control of corruption, Investment, Economic Growth, simultaneous equations model. |
| JEL: | O43 |
| Date: | 2015–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63908&r=ara |
| By: | Marouani, Mohamed Ali; David, Anda |
| Abstract: | Jordan and Tunisia are two non-oil exporting MENA countries characterized by high unemployment rates and significant migrant populations. A comparative analysis of the impact of international mobility in the two countries allows us to shedlight on the mechanisms through which emigration affects labor market outcomes and reciprocally. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium framework for each economy, with a full-fledged modeling of migration, labor market and education issues. The results show that the global crisis worsened the unemployment situation by increasing labor supply in both countries. This phenomenon was amplified by a significant decrease in labor demand in the Tunisian case. Developing Mode 4 type of exports improves the labor market situation, mainly for high skilled workers. As a consequence, migration and brain-drain would be reduced. Furthermore, an increase in foreign wages has higher benefits in Jordan despite a higher induced mi- gration increase in Tunisia. When the rise is limited to high-skilled migrants’ wages, low and medium skilled workers are positively affected in Tunisia and negatively in Jordan. Finally, Mode 4 and high skilled wages increases have clear positive effects on transition rates to superior education, while the other shocks have variable effects, depending on labor market structural parameters in the two countries. |
| Keywords: | International migration; Remittances; Labor supply; CGE; Tunisia and Jordan; |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J21 C68 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/14987&r=ara |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit |
| Abstract: | This study investigates inequality of opportunity in educational achievements in Turkey over time. For this purpose we use test scores of PISA in mathematics, science and reading achievement of 15-year-olds over the period 2003-2012. Since the different waves of the samples cover only a fraction of the cohorts of 15-year olds we take into account the inequality of opportunity in access to the PISA test as well as the inequality of opportunity of the academic achievement in the PISA test. This procedure enables proper over time comparisons. We estimate the effect of circumstances children are born into on their academic achievement as evidenced in their PISA test scores. The main findings are as follows. First, confirming the previous studies we find that inequality of opportunity is a large part of the inequality of educational achievement in Turkey. Second, the inequality of opportunity in educational achievement shows a slightly decreasing trend over time in Turkey. Third, the inequality of opportunity figures based on the mathematics, science and reading achievements exhibited the similar trend over time. Forth, the family background variables are the most important determinants of the inequality in educational achievement which is a consistent pattern over time. However, there is also evidence of slight weakening of these factors over time. Policies are necessary to improve equality of opportunity in education in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Inequality of opportunity, Education, Turkey |
| JEL: | I24 I3 I31 |
| Date: | 2015–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63857&r=ara |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates inequality of opportunity in educational achievements in Turkey over time. For this purpose we use test scores of PISA in mathematics, science and reading achievement of 15-year-olds over the period 2003-2012. Since the different waves of the samples cover only a fraction of the cohorts of 15-year olds we take into account the inequality of opportunity in access to the PISA test as well as the inequality of opportunity of the academic achievement in the PISA test. This procedure enables proper over time comparisons. We estimate the effect of circumstances children are born into on their academic achievement as evidenced in their PISA test scores. The main findings are as follows. First, confirming the previous studies we find that inequality of opportunity is a large part of the inequality of educational achievement in Turkey. Second, the inequality of opportunity in educational achievement shows a slightly decreasing trend over time in Turkey. Third, the inequality of opportunity figures based on the mathematics, science and reading achievements exhibited the similar trend over time. Forth, the family background variables are the most important determinants of the inequality in educational achievement which is a consistent pattern over time. However, there is also evidence of slight weakening of these factors over time. Policies are necessary to improve equality of opportunity in education in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | inequality of opportunity, education, Turkey |
| JEL: | I24 D63 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9005&r=ara |
| By: | driouchi, ahmed; Gamar, Alae |
| Abstract: | Abstract This is to assess intergenerational mobility and inequalities in educational attainment in Arab countries with the aim of finding out about the existence of a Gatsby curve for education. The existence of links between intergenerational mobility and inequalities provide useful insights to new inclusive economic policies. The paper uses descriptive and regression analyzes based on Barro and Lee data (2014) for the period 1950-2010. The attained results confirm the existence of a relationship between education mobility and inequality in educational attainment. This negative relationship between inequalities and intergenerational mobility in education attainment confirms the existence of Gatsby curve for education in Arab countries. This allows for new directions for further economic policies for reducing education inequalities and enhancing more access of new generations to knowledge, in Arab countries. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Inequality, GINI, Intergenerational mobility, Education attainment, The Gatsby Curve, Arab countries. |
| JEL: | I32 J62 |
| Date: | 2015–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63869&r=ara |
| By: | Hamdi, Helmi; Hakimi, Abdelaziz |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between corruption, investment and economic growth in Tunisia within a multivariate framework. In the empirical section we use data span from 1976 to 2013 and we perform a vector error correction model and cointegartion technique to detect causality between corruption, investment, economic growth, credit to the private sector and foreign direct investment. The main findings of this paper show that corruption hampered Tunisia economic growth in the short-run and the long run as well. Corruption could be the main reason of the slowdown of investment activities and the low inflow of capital. Another important conclusion was revealed in this paper is that corruption get worsened in the period that follows the social upsurge of December 2010. Therefore, the main goals of the so called “revolution” are from being achieved yet. Hence, more works are needed to fight corruption in Tunisia. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, investment, Growth, Tunisia |
| JEL: | G2 G28 O11 O43 |
| Date: | 2015–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63748&r=ara |
| By: | Sy-Hoa HO (EPEE - University of Evry Val d’Essonne,CEPN - University of Paris North) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the asymmetric long-run and short-run determinants of the sovereign bond index, a proxy of sovereign default, for two typical emerging countries: Turkey and Brazil over the 2000Q1-2011Q4 period. The determinants of the sovereign bond index are estimated by three macroeconomic factors: the current account, the external debt and international reserves. In particular, we use the positive and negative partial sum decomposition of the current account to determine the asymmetric effects on the sovereign bond index. Our findings can be summarized as follows: i, An asymmetric long-run relationship exists between the sovereign bond index and the explanatory variables for the following models. Only the long-run effect is asymmetric for Turkey while both short-run and long-run effects are asymmetric for Brazil. ii, The positive and negative shocks on the current account are more significant than a shock on international reserves to reduce the sovereign default risk for Turkey. iii, A negative shock on the current account is stronger than a positive one for Brazil. |
| Keywords: | EMBI+, asymmetry, NARDL |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:15-02&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Ali Marouani (UMR « Développement et Société », IEDES / Université Paris1-Panthéon-Sorbonne, ERF, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL); Rim Mouelhi (ISCAE, La Manouba University, LEFA Carthage and ERF) |
| Abstract: | The objective of the paper is to analyze the dynamics of sectoral productivity growth in Tunisia and assess the contribution of structural change to these dynamics. Using sectoral and firm data we show that productivity increased at a relatively sustained pace in Tunisia in the last three decades, but that the contribution of structural change remained limited. Trade and labor market reforms did not seem to increase it. The main reasons are barriers to entry in some sectors, the inefficiency of factor markets, and the focus of the firms’ upgrading program only on some selected sectors. _________________________________ L’objectif de ce papier est d’analyser la dynamique de la croissance sectorielle de la productivité en Tunisie et d’évaluer la contribution du changement structurel à cette dynamique. En utilisant des données sectorielles et de firmes nous montrons que la productivité a augmenté à un rythme relativement soutenu au cours des trois dernières décennies, mais que la contribution du changement structurel est restée limitée. Les réformes de la politique commerciale et du marché du travail ne semblent pas l’avoir affectée. Les principales raisons sont les barrières à l’entrée dans certains secteurs, l’inefficacité des marchés des facteurs et la focalisation du programme de mise à niveau sur un petit nombre de secteurs. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Structural Change, Employment, Tunisia, Productivité, changement structurel, emploi, Tunisie. |
| JEL: | O14 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201506&r=ara |
| By: | Faruk, Balli; Syed Abul, Basher; Hassan, Ghassan; Hassan, Hajhoj |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the return spillovers and volatility spillovers from developed markets (e.g., Europe, Japan and the US) into the financial markets of selected emerging countries in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Based on constant and trend spillover models, we find evidence of significant spillover effects from developed markets to emerging markets. The results from variance ratios indicate the dominance of US shocks across all emerging markets, though the effect varies widely among countries. New to these literature, we conduct an empirical analysis quantifying the underlying determinants affecting the extent of shock spillovers. The results show that bilateral factors such as trade volume, portfolio investment and distance are significant in explaining the spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | Return spillovers; Volatility spillovers; Market integration |
| JEL: | F15 F36 G12 |
| Date: | 2015–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63847&r=ara |
| By: | Anda David (PSL, Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa, IRD, UMR DIAL); Mohamed Ali Marouani (UMR « Développement et Société », IEDES / Université Paris1-Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses how a crisis impacts labor markets in origin countries through migration channels. For this purpose, we develop a novel dynamic general equilibrium model with a focus on the interlinkages be- tween migration, the labor market and education. The main innovation of the paper is the retrospective modeling in general equilibrium of the impact of an economic crisis to isolate the impact of migration on local unemployment. The impact of the crisis on education decision is captured through endogenous returns to education. The simultaneity of the crisis in Tunisia and its partners worsened the labour market situation mainly through the increase in labour supply. The main result is that migration is indeed one of the main determinants of the unemployment increase and that remittances have a higher impact than the variation of emigration flows. The low skilled bear the highest costs in terms of unemployment and wage decline. _________________________________ Cet article s’intéresse à la manière dont une crise affecte le marché du travail des pays d’origine, à travers la migration. A cet effet, nous développons un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique mettant l’accent sur les interactions entre migration, marché du travail et éducation. La principale innovation de l’article est la modélisation rétrospective en équilibre général de l’impact d’une crise économique, en isolant l’effet de la migration sur le chômage local. L’impact de la crise sur l’accumulation de capital humain est capté via l’endogénéisation des rendements de l’éducation. La simultanéité de la crise en Tunisie et dans les pays partenaires a aggravé la situation sur marché du travail tunisien, principalement à travers l’augmentation de l’offre de travail. Le principal résultat est que la migration est en effet l’un des principaux déterminants de l’augmentation du chômage et que les transferts de fonds ont un impact plus important que la variation des flux d’émigrants. En outre, les travailleurs les moins qualifiés ont été les plus affectés en termes de chômage et de baisse des salaires. |
| Keywords: | International migration, remittances, labour supply, CGE, Tunisia, Migration internationale, transferts de fonds, offre de travail, équilibre général calculable, Tunisie. |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J21 C68 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201505&r=ara |
| By: | Deniz Baglan (Department of Economics, Howard University); M. Ege Yazgan (Department of Economics, Kadir Has University); Hakan Yilmazkuday (Department of Economics, Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between relative price variability (RPV) and inflation using monthly micro price data for 128 goods in 13 Turkish regions/cities for the period 1994-2010. The unique feature of this data set is the inclusion of annual inflation rates ranging between 0 % and 90 %. Nonparametric estimations show that there is a hump-shaped relationship between RPV and inflation, where the maximum RPV is achieved when annual inflation is approximately 20 %. It is shown that this result is consistent with a region- or city-level homogenous menu cost model featuring Calvo pricing with an endogenous contract structure and non-zero steady-state inflation. |
| Keywords: | Relative price variability, Calvo pricing, Menu costs |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fiu:wpaper:1502&r=ara |
| By: | Isabelle Bensidoun (Centre d’études de l’emploi, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL); Aude Sztulman (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL, 75016 Paris, France) |
| Abstract: | (english) Over the last two decades the Egyptian labor market has undergone major changes that the social claims of the January 2011 revolution brought to light. Among them, lack of job security and associated weak social protection have been particularly criticized. Therefore the aim of this article is it to present an overview of employment in Egypt, with a specific focus on the evolution of informal employment. To this end we use individual data from nationally representative household surveys carried out in 1998, 2006 and 2012. The descriptive and econometric analysis illustrates that over the period studied the withdrawal of the state as a provider of employment was very marked. Simultaneously, the state’s lack of commitment to enforce labor laws in the private sector has led to a significant increase in informal employment. Informal jobs concern specifically men, young people and the less qualified workers. Though, over time, age and education provide less effective protection against informal employment. The majority of private sector jobs not only lack social protection but are also becoming more and more insecure. _________________________________ (français) Le marché du travail égyptien a connu, au cours des deux dernières décennies, des mutations importantes que les revendications sociales de la révolution de janvier 2011 ont mises au jour. Parmi elles, le manque de sécurité des emplois et la faible couverture sociale qui leur est associée ont été particulièrement dénoncés. Aussi l’objectif de ce travail est-il de présenter un panorama de l’emploi en Egypte, en s’intéressant en particulier à l’évolution de l’emploi informel. A cette fin les données individuelles issues d’enquêtes sur les ménages représentatives au niveau national et disponibles pour trois années (1998, 2006 et 2012) seront mobilisées. Les analyses descriptive et économétrique montrent que le désengagement de l’Etat en tant que pourvoyeur d’emplois a été particulièrement marqué sur cette période. Dans le même temps, son absence d’engagement à faire respecter la législation du travail au secteur privé s’est traduit par une progression significative de l’emploi informel. Ce dernier touche particulièrement les hommes, les jeunes et les moins éduqués bien que l’âge et l’éducation assurent, avec le temps, une protection de moins en moins efficace face à l’emploi informel. A cette absence de protection sociale de la plupart des emplois privés s’ajoute la précarité qui caractérise nombre d’entre eux. |
| Keywords: | Labor market, informal employment, Egypt, Marché du travail, emploi informel, Egypte. |
| JEL: | J21 J45 O53 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201509&r=ara |
| By: | Ekizceleroglu, Caner |
| Abstract: | Cesse Colombo'nun yaklaşık bir yıl önce Forbes dergisinin web sitesinde yayınladığı bir makaleyi okuyunca, farklı bakış açılarının ne kadar önemli olduğunu gördüm. Bazen gerçekten olayın dışına çıkarak gözlemlemek gerekiyor. Türkiye ekonomisine de böyle bir bakış açısı gerekli. Son on günde Financial Times'ın Türkiye Eki ve Dani Rodrik'in Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine kaleme aldığı yazısı Türkiye ekonomisinin Türkiye dışından farklı algılandığını kanıtlar niteliktedir. |
| Keywords: | Türkiye Ekonomisi, Balon, Kredi Genişlemesi, |
| JEL: | E0 E5 E51 G18 |
| Date: | 2015–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63896&r=ara |