nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2015‒02‒22
fifteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Impact of Arab Spring on Hiring and Separation Rates in the Tunisian Labour Market By Haouas, Ilham; Heshmati, Almas
  2. Turkey’s Rising Imports from BRICS: A Gravity Model Approach By Dinçer, Gönül
  3. Unemployment and Labor Force Participation in Turkey By Aysit Tansel; Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir; Emre Aksoy
  4. The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Turkey By Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre; van den Berg, Marcel; Hassink, Wolter
  5. Occupational Structure in Egypt in 1848-1996 By Saleh, Mohamed
  6. : Income Inequality and FDI: Evidence with Turkish Data By Meltem Ucal; Mehmet Hüseyin Bilgin; Alfred Haug
  7. A panel analysis of the effects of oil consumption, international tourism, environmental quality and political instability on economic growth in MENA region By Anis Omri; Mohamed Shahbaz; Anissa Chaibi; Christophe Rault
  8. Factors of Competitiveness of Islamic Banks in the New Financial Order By Jean-Michel Sahut; Mehdi Mili; Maroua Ben Krir; Frédéric Teulon
  9. Effect of Oil Sanctions on the Macroeconomic and Household Welfare in Iran: New Evidence from a CGE Model By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Mohammad Mohammadikhabbazan; Hossein Sadeghi
  10. Financial Development, Environmental Quality, Trade and Economic Growth : What Causes What in MENA Countries By Anis Omri; Saida Daly; Anissa Chaibi; Christophe Rault
  11. Does Improved Local Supply of Schooling Enhance Intergenerational Mobility in Education? Evidence from Jordan By Assaad, Ragui; Saleh, Mohamed
  12. Taxes, Natural Resource Endowment, and the Supply of Labor: New Evidence By Razzak, Weshah; Laabas, Belkacem
  13. L’économie politique de la finance et de la production: cas des pays de la Tunisie, du Maroc et de la Mauritanie By ziadi, Azza
  14. La coopération économique entre les pays Du Maghreb (Research Paper) By Saadallah, Ridha
  15. Türkiye’den Oecd Ülkelerine Gerçekleşen Göçün Çekim Modeli İle Analizi By Dinçer, Gönül; Muratoğlu, Yusuf

  1. By: Haouas, Ilham (Abu Dhabi University); Heshmati, Almas (Jönköping University, Sogang University)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the hiring and separation rates in Tunisia before and after the Arab Spring of 2011. Several models are specified to study employment decisions based on quarterly administrative firm level data over the period of 2007 to 2012. The data provides information about important firm characteristics such as industry sector, number of hiring and separation, total employment effects and composition of labour force by gender, managerial level and age cohorts. Six models are estimated to investigate hiring, separation, hiring rate, separation rate, mobility, and net-employment. The results indicate presence of continued risk factors in Tunisia's labour market resulting from the global financial crisis in 2008 and the Arab Spring in 2011. Hiring was little changed during this time period, and the results suggest that factors that impact separation decisions remained present in Tunisia's labour market. In addition, the paper looks at various social issues such as youth unemployment and infer on how more efficient policy actions that will further engage the private sector could result in more sustainable positive net-employment and increased labour mobility.
    Keywords: hiring, separation, labour mobility, net-employment, informal sector, Tunisia, Arab Spring, global financial crisis
    JEL: E24 J23 J63
    Date: 2015–01
  2. By: Dinçer, Gönül
    Abstract: The share of BRICS countries in the world trade is significantly rising for more than a decade and it was approximately 3 % in 1980, 6 % in 2000 and 16 % in 2013 in the total world imports. The same rising pattern of BRICS is also being seen in Turkey’s trade since early 2000s. In this study, the imports of Turkey from BRICS are analyzed using an augmented gravity model over the period 2002-2012. The results indicate that the basic gravity variables are consistent with the theory. Furthermore, R&D expenditures in Turkey is negatively correlated with Turkey’s imports from BRICS countries whereas R&D expenditures in BRICS countries are positively correlated.
    Keywords: International Trade, the Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis, BRICS, Turkey
    JEL: C33 F10 F14
    Date: 2014–10–11
  3. By: Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics Middle East Technical University, Turkey); Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir (Department of Economics, Gazi University, Besevler, 06500, Ankara, Turkey); Emre Aksoy (Department of Economics, Kirikkale University, Kirikkale, Turkey)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between labor force participation rate and unemployment rate in Turkey a developing country. Cointegration analysis is carried out for the aggregate and gender and age specific series. The findings indicate that there is no long-run relationship between labor force participation and unemployment rates in Turkey. Thus, unlike in the case of the developed countries the unemployment invariance hypothesis is supported in Turkey.
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre (Utrecht University); van den Berg, Marcel (Statistics Netherlands); Hassink, Wolter (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: The civil war in Syria has culminated into major refugee crises in its neighboring countries. By the end of 2013 more than half a million people were seeking shelter in cities and refugee camps in Turkey. We analyze how the Syrian refugee influx in Turkey has affected food and housing prices, employment rates and internal migration patterns in regions of Turkey where refugees are being accommodated. Refugee camps are geographically concentrated near the Syrian border, which enables us to employ the rest of regional Turkey as control group with a difference-in-difference approach to analyze the impact on local economies. Our findings suggest that housing and to a lesser degree food prices increased, but employment rates of natives in various skill groups are largely unaffected. Incumbent natives appear to be staying put considering the limited migration out of the region, but there is a significant decline in internal migration into regions hosting refugees. Nevertheless, the decline in internal in-migration is less than a tenth of the refugee influx, implying that there is little evidence of refugees crowding out natives in local labor markets.
    Keywords: refugees, employment, migration, inflation, regional economy, difference-in-difference
    JEL: F22 J61 R23
    Date: 2015–02
  5. By: Saleh, Mohamed
    Date: 2015–01
  6. By: Meltem Ucal (Department of Economics, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey); Mehmet Hüseyin Bilgin (Department of International Relations, Istanbul Medeniyet University, Istanbul, Turkey); Alfred Haug (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)
    Abstract: This paper explores how foreign direct investment (FDI) and other determinants impact income inequality in Turkey in the short- and long-run. We apply the ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) modelling approach, which is suitable for small samples. The data for the study cover the years from 1970 to 2008. The empirical results indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables. The positive impact of the FDI growth rate on income inequality, worsening inequality, is shown to be significant in the short-run, though at the 10% significance level only and with a quantitatively small impact, and insignificant in the long-run. In other words, FDI increases income inequality initially somewhat but this effect disappears in the long run. The literacy rate clearly reduces inequality in the long run, but also in the short run. On the other hand, population growth worsens inequality in the long run, and the effect is quite large, though it has no statistically significant effect on inequality in the short run. Also, an increase in GDP growth reduces inequality especially in the short run (at a 5% level of significance) but also in the long run (though only at the 10% level).
    Keywords: Income inequality, foreign direct investment, ARDL estimation, FM-OLS estimation, Turkey
    JEL: D31 F21 C32 C13
    Date: 2014–06
  7. By: Anis Omri; Mohamed Shahbaz; Anissa Chaibi; Christophe Rault
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate whether oil consumption, international tourism, environmental quality and political instabilty affect economic growth in 18 MENA countries over the period 1995- 2011using both the static (POLS, FE and RE) and dynamic (Diff-GMM and Sys-GMM) panel data approaches. The empirical results show that the increases in oil consumption and international tourist arrivals are the major drivers of economic growth in MENA countries indicating the presence of energy-led-growth (ELG) and tourism-led-growth (TLG) hypotheses in these countries. We also find that economic growth in MENA countries reacts negatively to the environmental degradation and political instability. These empirical insights are of particular interest to policymakers as they help build sound economic policies to sustain economic development.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Static and dynamic panel data, MENA countries.
    Date: 2015–02–10
  8. By: Jean-Michel Sahut; Mehdi Mili; Maroua Ben Krir; Frédéric Teulon
    Abstract: This paper studies the factor of competitive conditions of conventional and Islamic banks operating in the same market in the MENA region. We determine the level of competitiveness between the two types of banks by using the PR-H statistic of Panzar and Ross (1987) and the Lerner index. Our estimations show that banking sectors in MENA operate under monopolistic competition. Our results confirm that Islamic banks are significantly more competitive than conventional banks and they express a higher degree of market power. We show also that profitability significantly increases with market power, but this does not warrant higher profitability levels for Islamic banks.
    Keywords: Islamic banks, Market Structure, Bank Competition, profitability.
    JEL: D4 G21 L1 N25
    Date: 2015–02–10
  9. By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (University of Marburg); Mohammad Mohammadikhabbazan (Tarbiat Moddaress University); Hossein Sadeghi (Tarbiat Moddaress University)
    Abstract: We examine the macroeconomic and household welfare consequences of oil sanctions in Iran. We use social accounting matrix (SAM) and develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate selected scenarios in which the exportation of oil from Iran to the rest of the world is banned. Our main results show that higher income households are losing more significantly under oil sanctions. Total imports, exports, private consumption, and GDP fall in response to oil sanctions. Interesting is the increase of net indirect taxes at the time of oil revenues fall. Real exchange rate appreciates in the oil sanction crisis. In addition, labor income increases while the capital income falls in response to oil sanctions in Iran. These simulations are in line with reality of the Iranian economy in post-oil sanction period.
    Keywords: oil, sanctions, CGE model, social accounting matrix, Iran
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Anis Omri; Saida Daly; Anissa Chaibi; Christophe Rault
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between financial development, CO2 emissions, trade and economic growth using simultaneous-equation panel data models for a panel of 12 MENA countries over the period 1990-2011. Our results indicate that there is evidence of bidirectional causality between CO2 emissions and economic growth. Economic growth and trade openness are interrelated i.e. bidirectional causality. Feedback hypothesis is validated between trade openness and financial development. Neutrality hypothesis is identified between CO2 emissions and financial development. Unidirectional causality running from financial development to economic growth and from trade openness to CO2 emissions is identified. Our empirical results also verified the existence of environmental Kuznets curve. These empirical insights are of particular interest to policymakers as they help build sound economic policies to sustain economic development and to improve the environmental quality.
    Keywords: Financial development, CO2 emissions, Trade, Economic growth, Simultaneous-equation models.
    Date: 2015–02–10
  11. By: Assaad, Ragui; Saleh, Mohamed
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of increased local supply of schooling on intergenerational mobility in education in Jordan. We use a unique data set that links individual data on own schooling and parents’ schooling for adults, from a household survey, with the annual supply of schools in the sub-district of birth, from a school census. We identify the effect by exploiting the variation in the supply of basic and secondary public schools across cohorts and sub-districts of birth in Jordan, controlling for both cohort and sub-district of birth fixed effects. School availability is determined based on the number of sex-appropriate public schools in the individual’s sub-district of birth at the time the individual was ready to start that schooling stage. Our findings show that the local availability of basic public schools does in fact increase intergenerational mobility in education. For instance, an increase in the supply of basic public schools of one school per 1,000 people reduces the father-son and mother-son associations of schooling by 10 percent and the father-daughter and mother-daughter associations by nearly 30 percent. However, an increase in the local supply of secondary public schools does not seem to have a similar effect on intergenerational mobility in education.
    Keywords: Supply of schooling, education, intergenerational mobility, inequality of opportunity, Middle East
    JEL: I24 I28
    Date: 2015–01
  12. By: Razzak, Weshah; Laabas, Belkacem
    Abstract: We use the work-leisure choice model to compute equilibrium weekly hours worked for a number of Arab countries, where actual statistics are unavailable. We show that the labor supply curve is elastic in all Arab countries, and provide a new measure of labor productivity. This finding confirms previous research that workers respond to incentives, which has serious implications for tax and social security policies. We also provide some policy simulations pertinent to the effects of taxation on welfare and poverty.
    Keywords: -worked, natural resource endowment, poverty, welfare
    JEL: E01 E62 J22
    Date: 2011–06–19
  13. By: ziadi, Azza
    Abstract: The objective of this article is to identify the nature of the relationship between the financial sphere and the productive sphere. First, disclosing the various theoretical and empirical studies on the so-called relationship, then highlighting the nature of the relationship between the two spheres for AMU countries with the exception of Algeria and Libya. We will therefore answer the question: how the financial sector affects -t- it on the real economy by taking as a case study Tunisia, Morocco and Mauritania.
    Keywords: Finance, economic growth, economic integration, savings, economic development
    JEL: E23
    Date: 2014–05–02
  14. By: Saadallah, Ridha (The Islamic Research and Teaching Institute (IRTI))
    Abstract: Cet ouvrage traite de nombreux thèmes dont les ressources naturelles et humaines au Maghreb, le potentiel de coopération agricole et industrielle au Maghreb, etc…
    Keywords: Islamic; Economics
    Date: 2015–02–18
  15. By: Dinçer, Gönül; Muratoğlu, Yusuf
    Abstract: Son dönemlerin en belirgin ve en tartışmalı olgularından birisi olan uluslararası göç; hem göçün kaynaklandığı ülkelerde, hem de göç alıcı ülkelerde önemli sosyal ve ekonomik değişimlere yol açmaktadır. Dolayısıyla giderek daha fazla sayıda araştırmacı bu olgunun nedenlerini ve sonuçlarını araştırmaya yönelmektedir. Göçlerin ekonomik nedenleri, Çekim Modeli (Gravity Model) kullanılarak çok yönlü ve etkin bir biçimde analiz edilebilmektedir. Çekim Modeli, genellikle ülkeler arasındaki karşılıklı ticaret akımlarını inceleyen, görece yeni, açıklama gücü yüksek ve kullanışlı bir modeldir. Öte yandan Model, ülkeler arasındaki göç akımlarını analiz etmeye de oldukça elverişli olup, uluslararası göç alan yazınında da kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’den 20 OECD ülkesine 1960-2010 döneminde gerçekleşen göçün ekonomik belirleyenleri Genişletilmiş Çekim Modeli (Augmented Gravity Model) kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir.
    Keywords: Uluslararası Göç, Çekim Modeli, Panel Veri Analizi
    JEL: C33 F14 F22
    Date: 2014–10

This nep-ara issue is ©2015 by Paul Makdissi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.