nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒12‒19
three papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Current Account Deficit in Turkey: Cyclical or Structural? By Hakan Kara; Cagri Sarikaya
  2. Study on Demand of Animal Protein Resources in Egypt By Bassyouni Shehata, Gaber Ahmed
  3. The Impact of Financial Development on the Relationship between Trade Credit, Bank Credit and Firm Characteristics By Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran; Jérôme Héricourt

  1. By: Hakan Kara (Central Bank of Turkey); Cagri Sarikaya (Central Bank of Turkey)
    Abstract: Turkey’s high current account deficit has been at the core of macroeconomic policy discussions in recent years. Quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving the current account fluctuations is essential for designing an appropriate policy response and evaluating the impact of policy measures. Using a simple methodology, this study extracts the cyclical component of the current account in Turkey, with special reference to its three main drivers; namely foreign demand, domestic demand and foreign trade prices. We argue that the underlying (cyclically-adjusted) current account deficit has displayed a persistent deteriorating trend during 1998-2007 period before stabilizing around 6 percent of GDP in recent years. Decomposing the current account deficit into cyclical and non-cyclical factors allows us to assess the impact of recent policy actions. Our computations suggest that, although the policies pursued by the central bank and other authorities since 2011 have removed the cyclical part to a great extent, there remains a sizeable component of the deficit to be dealt with more structural policies.
    Keywords: Current Account Balance, Foreign Trade, Business Cycle, Cyclical Adjustment, Filtering.
    JEL: E32 F14 F32
    Date: 2014–11
  2. By: Bassyouni Shehata, Gaber Ahmed
    Abstract: Agricultural is the principal source of food and some essential raw materials for industrial development. It accounts for almost 18-20% of the Egyptian gross domestic production, for about 17-19% of export earning and employs 32% of the workforce. Increasing Egyptian demand for food yearly, due mainly to the growth of the population considers one of the reasons which caused raising imports. The red meat of staple food commodities that meet Egypt in the proportion of sufficiency was about 73.6% in 2011, having reached the quantities available for consumption of red meat about 1251 tons, while the average individual share of 15.3 kg / year in 2011, increasing an annual rate was about 1.25% during the study period (1992-2011). This shows that the high prices of red meat that makes the consumer to alternatives available in the markets where the average individual share of fish and poultry were about 18.9, and about 13.8 kg / year in 2011 respectively, while the annual growth rate was about 4.87% and 2.04% of fish and poultry, respectively during the period (1992-2011). The shortage of providing food from animal protein is very important because it is one of the components of the major food necessary for human nutrition and the maintenance of health, it is access to sources of animal protein from red meat, poultry and fish, it is associated with the demand by increasing population, increasing expenditure income and the level of awareness of health and nutrition of the population, and increase the average per capita, with an average individual share consumption of red meat, fish and poultry in Egypt with about 13.63, 13.18 and 10.93 kg / year during the study period (1992-2011), while the annual growth rate was about 1.48%, 5.04%, 2.3%, respectively, which demonstrates that the rate of increase in population growth exceeded the rate of increase and improve the demand for red meat due to increase the incomes as a result of continuous rise in the price of red meat and low average per capita, resulting in the transformation of consumer to the alternatives available in the market of animal protein resources such as fish meat and poultry. The study results showed that the demand for red meat using the Almost Ideal Demand System( AIDS) in Egypt during the study period (1992-2011) as follows: • The most important factors affecting the demand for red meat in Egypt during the study period ware the average retail price of red meat, fish, poultry and expenditure on red meat. • High proportion of expenditure for the Egyptian consumer on the red meat for fish and poultry which amounted to about 57.97%, 23.62% and 18.41% respectively, it means that consumer preference for red meat, fish and poultry in bridging the requirements of the animal protein products. • Most of consumer income spent on red meat because the significant value of demand elasticity expenditure coefficient. • The research showed that the value of the signal coefficient of price elasticity of demand cross - compensated that red meat and fish are considered alternative or competing commodities, thus raising the price of fish entail a reduction in the proportion of expenditure on red meat. • The research showed also found that red meat and poultry are considered alternative or competing commodities, which increases the price of poultry, leading to increase in the proportion of expenditure on red meat.
    Keywords: Demand elasticity, animal protein, food commodities, consumption, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2013–09
  3. By: Jézabel Couppey-Soubeyran (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne); Jérôme Héricourt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, EQUIPPE - ECONOMIE QUANTITATIVE, INTEGRATION, POLITIQUES PUBLIQUES ET ECONOMETRIE - Université Lille I - Sciences et technologies - Université Lille II - Droit et santé - Université Lille III - Sciences humaines et sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France)
    Abstract: Using a database of more than 1,300 firms from six countries in the MENA region, we study the impact of financial development on the relationship between trade credit on the one hand and bank credit access and firm-level characteristics, especially financial health, on the other hand. Trade credit use increases with the difficulty for gaining access to bank credit, and indicators of the quality of the firm's financial structure negatively influence the use of trade credit. Additional investigations tend to suggest that increased financial development significantly reduces the substitution relationship between trade credit and bank credit, and more generally decreases the influence of most firm-level determinants for trade credit usage. These results are plausibly explained by a demand-driven story: when bank credit access gets increasingly difficult, or when financial health deteriorates, the demand for trade credit increases. Similarly, when financial development increases, firms have better access to bank credit, and impact of this variable (or financial health proxies) on the demand for trade credit becomes less or not significant.
    Keywords: trade credit;bank credit; financial constraints; financial development
    Date: 2013

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