nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒12‒13
seven papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Wage Inequality and Wage Mobility in Turkey By Aysit Tansel; Basak Dalgic; Aytekin Guven
  2. A new estimation of the size of informal economy using monetary and full expenditures in a complete demand system By Armagan Tuna Aktuna Gunes; Christophe Starzec; François Gardes
  3. Soaring of the Gulf Falcons: Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions By Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov
  4. The Impact of Food Crisis on Government Debt in the Arab Region By Ali, Hoda Abd El Hamid
  5. The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt's Arab Spring By Daron Acemoglu; Tarek A. Hassan; Ahmed Tahoun
  6. The dynamic interaction between combustible renewables and waste consumption and international tourism: The case of Tunisia By Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim; Apergis, Nicholas
  7. Learning the Hard Way: The Effect of Violent Conflict on Student Academic Achievement By Brück, Tilman; Di Maio, Michele; Miaari, Sami H.

  1. By: Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany and Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt); Basak Dalgic (Department of Public Finance Hacettepe University); Aytekin Guven (Department of Economics Abant İzzet Baysal University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates wage inequality and wage mobility in Turkey using the Surveys on Income and Living Conditions (SILC). This is the first paper that explores wage mobility for Turkey. It differs from the existing literature by providing analyses of wage inequality and wage mobility over various socioeconomic groups such as gender, age, education and sector of economic activity. We first present an overview of the evolution of wages and wage inequality over the period 2005-2011. Next, we compute several measures of wage mobility and explore the link between wage inequality and wage mobility. Further, we compute the transition matrices which show movements of individuals across the wage distribution from one period to another and investigate the determinants of transition probabilities using a multinomial logit model. The results show that overall the real wages increased over the study period and wage inequality exhibits a slight increase.. Wage inequality is one of the highest among the European Union (EU) countries. The wage mobility in Turkey is lower than what is observed in the European Union countries although it increases as time horizon expands. Wage mobility has an equalizing impact on the wage distribution, however; this impact is not substantial enough to overcome the high and persistent wage inequality in Turkey.
    Keywords: Wage Inequality, Wage Mobility, Heterogeneity, Turkey.
    JEL: D31 D63 J31 J60
    Date: 2014–11
  2. By: Armagan Tuna Aktuna Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Christophe Starzec (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); François Gardes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)
    Abstract: We use the demand system approach to estimate the size of informal economy in Turkey following the methodology based on the analysis of the individual consumption behaviour proposed by Pissarides, Weber (1989), Lyssiotou et al. (2004), and Fortin et al. (2009). We extend this method by taking into account both the monetary expenditures and time spent on domestic activities. The necessary information of money and time inputs in consumption on the household's level is obtained by statistical match of Turkish Family Budget and Time Use surveys (2006). As expected, the estimated model size of the informal economy in Turkey using the full (time plus money) expenditure is higher than those obtained by only monetary approach (in average 40.6% and 33.5% of GDP respectively) and also higher than obtained by more conventional macroeconomic methods (for example 35.1% by Schneider in 2005 with DYMIMIC model).
    Keywords: Informal economy; complete demand system; time use full expenditures
    Date: 2013–06
  3. By: Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov
    Abstract: A key priority for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is to create a dynamic non-oil tradable sector to support sustainable growth. Since export diversification takes a long time, it has to start now. We argue that the failure to diversify away from oil stems mainly from market failures rather than government failures. To tackle market failures, the government needs to change the incentive structure for workers and firms. Experiences of oil exporters that managed to diversify suggest that a focus on competing in international markets and an emphasis on technological upgrade and climbing the “quality ladder†are crucial.
    Keywords: Export diversification;Nonoil sector;Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf;Oil exporting countries;Cross country analysis;natural resources, oil countries, growth, development, exports
    Date: 2014–09–24
  4. By: Ali, Hoda Abd El Hamid
    Abstract: This study explores the Impact of Food Prices Crisis on budget deficits in the Arab region. Panel data is used for the period of 2000 to 2012 in sixteen countries in the region. We run multi regression models which are used to estimate the Impact of food crisis on government debt in high, middle and low income countries before and after the food crisis period in 2006. The analysis reveals that the changes in food prices have a negative and significant impact only on the low and middle income countries' government debt before the crisis. We also found that the slow growth in GDP after the global economic and food crisis period, political instability, lagged deficits, real interest rates, and unemployment were also important determinants of government debt in most of the models estimated.
    Keywords: Food Crisis, Government Debts, Arab region, Social and Economic development, Poverty.
    JEL: E6 H6 H63 O1 O11 Q1 Q11 Q18
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Daron Acemoglu; Tarek A. Hassan; Ahmed Tahoun
    Abstract: During Egypt's Arab Spring, unprecedented popular mobilization and protests brought down Hosni Mubarak's government and ushered in an era of competition between three groups: elites associated with Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP), the military, and the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood. Street protests continued to play an important role during this power struggle. We show that these protests are associated with differential stock market returns for firms connected to the three groups. Using daily variation in the number of protesters, we document that more intense protests in Tahrir Square are associated with lower stock market valuations for firms connected to the group currently in power relative to non-connected firms, but have no impact on the relative valuations of firms connected to other powerful groups. We further show that activity on social media may have played an important role in mobilizing protesters, but had no direct effect on relative valuations. According to our preferred interpretation, these events provide evidence that, under weak institutions, popular mobilization and protests have a role in restricting the ability of connected firms to capture excess rents.
    JEL: E02 G12 G3 O11 O43 O53
    Date: 2014–11
  6. By: Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim; Apergis, Nicholas
    Abstract: This paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds methodological approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth, combustible renewables and waste consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and international tourism for the case of Tunisia spanning the period 1990-2010. The results from the Fisher statistic of both the Wald-test and the Johansen test confirm the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables under investigation. The stability of estimated parameters has been tested, while Granger causality tests recommend a short-run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption to CO2 emissions, a bidirectional causality between economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption and unidirectional causality running from economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption to international tourism. In the long-run, the error correction terms confirm the presence of bidirectional causality relationships between economic growth, CO2 emissions, combustible renewables and waste consumption and international tourism. Our long-run estimates show that combustible renewables and waste consumption increases international tourism, and both renewables and waste consumption and international tourism increase CO2 emissions and output. We recommend that: (i) Tunisia should use more combustible renewables and waste energy as this eliminates wastes from especially tourist zones and increases the number of tourist arrivals, leading to economic growth, and (ii) a fraction of this economic growth generated by the increase in combustible renewables and waste consumption should be invested in clean renewable energy production (i.e., solar, wind, geothermal) and energy efficiency projects.
    Keywords: Combustible renewables and waste; Tourism; Autoregressive distributed lag model; Cointegration; Granger causality; Tunisia.
    JEL: C32 O55 Q42 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2014–11–09
  7. By: Brück, Tilman (SIPRI); Di Maio, Michele (University of Naples Parthenope); Miaari, Sami H. (Tel Aviv University)
    Abstract: We study the effect of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the probability to pass the final high-school exam for Palestinian students in the West Bank during the Second Intifada (2000-2006). By exploiting within-school variation in the number of conflict-related Palestinian fatalities during the academic year, we show that the conflict reduces the probability to pass the final exam and to be admitted to the university. We also provide evidence of the heterogeneous effects of the conflict in terms of ability of the student and type of violent event the student is exposed to. Finally, we discuss possible transmission mechanisms explaining our main result.
    Keywords: academic achievement, high-school, Second Intifada, violent conflict, fatalities, West Bank, Palestine, Israel
    JEL: I20 O15 F51
    Date: 2014–10

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