nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒12‒08
eight papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. The Dynamics of Multidimensional Poverty in Turkey By Aysenur Acar
  2. Liquidity Determinants of Moroccan Banking Industry By FERROUHI, El Mehdi; LEHADIRI, Abderrassoul
  3. 2000 Families: identifying the research potential of an origins-of migration study By Ayse Guveli; Harry Ganzeboom; Helen Baykara-Krumme; Lucinda Platt; Şebnem Eroğlu; Niels Spierings; Sait Bayrakdar; Efe K Sozeri; Bernhard Nauck
  4. Institutional Determinants of Financial Development in MENA Countries By Mondher Cherif; Christian Dreger
  5. OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy By Ronald A. Ratti; Joaquin L. Vespignani
  6. A Multidimensional Perspective of Poverty, and its Relation with the Informal Labor Market: An Application to Ecuadorian and Turkish Data By Armagan-Tuna Aktuna Gunes; Carla Canelas
  7. Designing a Fiscal Framework for a Prospective Commodity Producer: Options for Lebanon By Mariusz Jarmuzek; Diego Mesa Puyo; Najla Nakhle
  8. Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Türkiye’nin İhracat Dinamiğine Etkisi: Yaygın ve Yoğun Ticaret. By Türkcan, Kemal; Pişkin, Erhan

  1. By: Aysenur Acar (Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research)
    Abstract: Over the past 20 years, poverty has conceived as a multidimensional issue, not only one-dimensional issue based on conventional indicators (i.e., income or expenditure). While a relatively huge literature has focused on the dynamic analysis of one-dimensional poverty, little attention has been given to the dynamics of multidimensional poverty. Using a panel data drawn from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) in the years 2007-2010, this study focuses on the dynamics of multidimensional poverty in Turkey. The purposes of the study are twofold: the first is to identify “poor” in Turkey by proposing a multidimensional poverty measure that incorporates various dimensions closely related to the well-being of individuals (such as labor market, housing, health and living standards), and the second is to investigate how the new measure differs from other existing poverty measures (i.e., income poverty and EU material deprivation) by using random effect probit model. The findings show that the new measure is partially consistent with the other measures and multidimensional poverty decreased during the period under examination. Empirical work reveals that higher years of schooling, homeownership or being a rental/asset income recipient decreases the probability of being multidimensionally poor, while large household size, attachment to agricultural employment or being a social welfare income recipient increases the probability of being multidimensionally poor.
    Keywords: Multidimensional Poverty, Severe Material Deprivation, Relative Income Poverty
    Date: 2014–10
  2. By: FERROUHI, El Mehdi; LEHADIRI, Abderrassoul
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the behavior of Moroccan bank’s liquidity during the period 2001 – 2012. The research aims to identify the determinants of Moroccan bank’s liquidity. We first evaluate Moroccan banks’ liquidity positions through different liquidity ratios to determine the effects of financial crisis on bank’s liquidity. We then highlight the effect of banks’ size on banks’ liquidity. Finally, we identify determinants of Moroccan bank’s liquidity using panel data regression. From results obtained, we can conclude that liquidity has decreased during the last decade. This decline has increased since 2007 with the financial crisis. We also conclude that banks’ size is a determinant of banks’ liquidity since liquidity is correlated with size of banks. Large banks are more liquid than small banks. Results show that in Morocco, liquidity is mainly determined by eleven 11 determinants: size of banks, share of own bank’s capital of the bank's total assets, external funding to total liabilities, return on assets, foreign direct investment, monetary aggregate M3, foreign assets, growth rate of gross domestic product, public deficit, inflation ratio and the effects of financial crisis. Thus, liquidity of Moroccan banking industry is positively correlated with bank’s size, share of own bank’s capital of the bank's total assets, external funding to total liabilities, monetary aggregate M3, foreign assets, foreign direct investment and negatively correlated with return on assets, inflation rate, growth rate of gross domestic product, public deficit and financial crisis. However, bank’s return on equity, equity to total assets and unemployment rate have no impact on Moroccan bank’s liquidity.
    Keywords: Morocco; bank’s liquidity, panel data regression; size of banks
    JEL: G17 G21 G32
    Date: 2013–11–30
  3. By: Ayse Guveli (University of Essex); Harry Ganzeboom (Free University Amsterdam); Helen Baykara-Krumme (Chemnitz University of Technology); Lucinda Platt (London School of Economics and Political Science); Şebnem Eroğlu (University Bristol); Niels Spierings (Radboud University Nijmegen); Sait Bayrakdar (University of Essex); Efe K Sozeri (Free University Amsterdam); Bernhard Nauck (Chemnitz University of Technology)
    Abstract: Despite extensive recent advances in the empirical and theoretical study of migration, certain critical areas in the analysis of European migration remain relatively underdeveloped both theoretically and empirically. Specifically, we lack studies that both incorporate an origin comparison and trace processes of intergenerational transmission across migrants over multiple generations and incorporating family migration trajectories. This paper outlines the development, data and design of such a study, the 2000 Families study, framed within a theoretical perspective of ‘dissimilation’ from origins and over generations. We term the study an origins-of-migration study, in that it captures the country of origin, the family origins and potentially the originating causes of migration processes and outcomes. The resulting data comprised nearly 2,000 migrant and non-migrant Turkish families with members across three or more generations, covering. 50,000 individuals. We reflect on the potential of this study for migration research.
    Keywords: Migration, Europe, Turkey, dissimilation, intergenerational transmission, originsof- migration study
    Date: 2014–09
  4. By: Mondher Cherif; Christian Dreger
    Abstract: Developed and well regulated financial markets are usually seen as a precondition for an efficient allocation of resources and can foster long term economic growth. This paper explores the institutional determinants for financial development in the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Institutional conditions are from the International Country Risk Guide. Paneleconometric techniques are applied to assess the development in the banking sector and the stock market. As a main finding, institutional conditions are important in both financial segments, even after controlling for standard macroeconomic determinants and fixed effects. For the banking sector, corruption seems to be most decisive. For the stock market, the impact of corruption and law and order appear to be relevant. While per capita income and inflation do not seem to play a vital role, openess to foreign trade is quite important for all areas of financial development. Hence, Overall, faster real economic integration is of key policy priority to improve financial development as a condition for higher GDP growth. Better law and enforcement practices and anti corruption policies are strategies to accompany this process.
    Keywords: Financial development, banking and stock market, institutional quality
    JEL: F15 G15 G28
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Ronald A. Ratti; Joaquin L. Vespignani
    Abstract: Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production in the earlier period, but does not do so in the “new industrial age”. In the “new industrial age” OPEC oil production rises significantly with an increase in oil prices, unlike during “the age of OPEC” period. OPEC oil production responds significantly to positive innovations in global GDP throughout. Over 1997:Q1-2012:Q4 the negative effect on real oil price of positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production is larger in absolute value than that of positive shocks to OPEC oil production. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to non-OPEC oil production and to real oil price on OPEC oil production are large. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to OPEC production and real oil price on non-OPEC production are small. Results are robust to changes in model specification. An econometric technique to predict growth in OPEC oil production provides support for the results from the SVAR analysis. Results are consistent with important changes in the global oil market.
    Keywords: OPEC production, non-OPEC, oil Price, global oil market
    JEL: E31 E32 Q43
    Date: 2014–11
  6. By: Armagan-Tuna Aktuna Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne); Carla Canelas (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the links between time use, informal labor market, and poverty measures in two countries that strongly differ on their level of development, by means of a multidimensional poverty index, and a bivariate probit model to assess the changes in the joint probability of working in the informal sector while being considered poor.
    Keywords: Poverty; informality; time use
    Date: 2013–03
  7. By: Mariusz Jarmuzek; Diego Mesa Puyo; Najla Nakhle
    Abstract: Lebanon is expected to have gas resources in its Mediterranean basin, and these could turn the country into a natural gas producer over the next decade. Lebanon’s economy and institutions will thus need to adapt to the challenges and opportunities that such change will bring. In this paper, we address how Lebanon’s fiscal framework will need to be reformulated to take into account potential resource revenue. Designing a fiscal regime appropriately is an absolute prerequisite to make sure the government can receive a fair share of the resources while investors face appropriate incentives to invest and develop the sector. This step should be followed by setting macro-fiscal anchors and supporting institutions. The prospective framework should initially be focused on ensuring fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity, given the estimated relatively short horizon of Lebanon’s gas resources. Strong institutional arrangements also need to underpin the prospective framework, to ensure that the pace of resource wealth’s use is set in line with Lebanon’s capacity constraints.
    Keywords: Fiscal framework;Lebanon;Fiscal policy;Natural resources;Oil producing countries;fiscal policy, oil-producing countries, resource revenue management, accountability
    Date: 2014–10–23
  8. By: Türkcan, Kemal; Pişkin, Erhan
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of the Customs Union (CU) and Free Trade Agreements (FTA) on the extensive and intensive margins. For this purpose, first, Turkey’s export data set composing HS-6 digit product level statistics for period 1996 to 2011 with 172 countries has been decomposed into extensive and intensive margins by using the decomposition method of export shares developed by Hummels and Klenow (2005) related Feenstra (1994). Then, effects of the CU and FTA on both extensive and intensive margins has been identified with the Gravity model. All analyzes has been performed for the exports of the total goods as well as the exports of the final and intermediate goods. Empirical results for the Gravity model show that the effects of the CU and FTA on the extensive and intensive margins are statistically significant. Furthermore, the effect of the CU on the extensive and intensive margins is greater than that of the FTA.
    Keywords: Free Trade Agreements, Customs Union, Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin
    JEL: F12 F14 F15
    Date: 2014–11–11

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