nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒11‒12
eight papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Integrating Agricultural Risks Management Strategies in selected EU Partner Countries: Syria, Tunisia, Turkey By Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Capitanio, Fabian; Adinolfi, Felice
  2. Performance des Télécommunications, Qualité institutionnelle et IDE en Afrique du Nord: CAS du MAROC et la TUNISIE By Bouras, Hela; Sossi Alaoui, Fatima Zorha; Fekih Soussi, Boutaïna; Machrafi, Mustapha
  3. Structural Change in Turkish External Trade: Evidence from BEC Sectors By Erdal Ozmen; Mehmet Duygu Yolcu-Karadam
  4. The Relationship between Consumer Price and Producer Price Indices in Turkey By Ãœlke, Volkan; Ergun, Ugur
  5. Exchange Uncertainty and Export Performance in Egypt: New Insights from Wavelet Decomposition and Optimal GARCH Model By Bouoiyour, Jamal; Selmi, Refk
  6. Economics of Migration of Students from the Arab Region to OECD countries By Driouchi, Ahmed
  7. OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy By Ratti, Ronald A.; Vespignani, Joaquin L.
  8. Ramadan Effect on Inflation (in Turkish) By Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Cagri Sarikaya

  1. By: Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Capitanio, Fabian; Adinolfi, Felice
    Abstract: Dynamics and transitions in the agricultural sector of emerging countries are not well understood yet. A decade of major political and economic changes is challenging the Mediterranean Economies, affecting the primary sectors of transition economies which are largely influenced by recent trends. The resulting exposure of agriculture to risks has called great attention on risk management strategies and public intervention. We explore their role in three different economies with a view to a unified policy framework. The analysis is conducted through a field activity in Syria, Tunisia and Turkey that has allowed to understand the key issues. The experts’ opinions draw a clear picture of retrospect and prospects and stimulate a comparative analysis that widens the current knowledge of risk management in the EU Partner Countries.
    Keywords: EU Integration, Agricultural Policy, Partner Countries, Risk Management
    JEL: F15 N54 Q18
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Bouras, Hela; Sossi Alaoui, Fatima Zorha; Fekih Soussi, Boutaïna; Machrafi, Mustapha
    Abstract: This article seeks to identify and analyze the interaction factors of attractiveness for FDI and the role of ICT, specifically telecommunications, as a determining factor in the increase of FDI flows. The theoretical approach pays special attention to the economic theory of knowledge and theory of New Institutional Economics and to detect attractiveness factors FDI and mechanisms through which ICT will attract more foreign investors. The method used is an OLS estimation method and the goal is to establish a comparison between Tunisia and Morocco. This idea has been the econometric part of this work. Our investigation found that the size of the institutional quality attractive for FDI is economic governance for Morocco detected by the quality of regulation, while in Tunisia it is the control of corruption. The results support the hypothesis that better infrastructure and better institutional quality facilities have a positive impact on FDI flows, in contrast to the economic literature, the size of the market and efforts in improving the human capital has no significant impact for the case of Morocco. The difference is however very clear between Morocco and Tunisia, marked by a significant and positive effect of the number of Internet users on the attractiveness of FDI. The effectiveness of public policy, political stability and the immediate demands abilities and expressions have a positive indirect impact on the attractiveness of FDI for Morocco. Similarly, we find that institutional quality positively affects FDI through the performance of telecommunications for the case of Morocco, while institutional quality positively affects FDI through human capital in the case of Tunisia.
    Keywords: FDI,attractiviness factors, institutional quality, Knowledge economy ....
    JEL: F02 F10
    Date: 2014–07–01
  3. By: Erdal Ozmen (Department of Economics, METU); Mehmet Duygu Yolcu-Karadam (Department of Economics, METU)
    Abstract: This study investigates export and import dynamics of Turkey in the context of the main Broad Economic Classification (BEC) sectors. Our results suggest that the trade equations do not remain stable when an endogenously estimated regime change is taken account. According to our results, consistent with the elasticity pessimism literature, real exchange rate elasticities of exports and imports are considerably low in absolute value. Exports and imports are basically determined by world real output and domestic real income, respectively, with substantially high elasticities. Consistent with the fact that Turkish integration to global value chains has substantaily increased during the post-2000 period especially in intermediate and capital goods sectors, the real exchange elasticities of exports and imports decrease (in absolute value) during the recent period. Our results suggesting that the external income elasticity of exports, for all sectors, is substantially higher than the domestic income elasticity of imports support that the Houthakker and Magee findings still remains a puzzle even under case of the higher participation in the global value chains.
    Keywords: current account deficits, exports, global value chains, imports, real exchange rates, trade elasticity, Turkey.
    JEL: F1 F4
    Date: 2014–11
  4. By: Ãœlke, Volkan; Ergun, Ugur
    Abstract: In this study we analyze the relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Turkey. We test long run, short run and causality relationship of these series. Johansen’s cointegration tests present a long run relationship between these series. Vector error correction (VEC) model specification suggests these series move together. There is a unidirectional long run causality from CPI to PPI. On the other hand VEC Granger causality test indicates no causality in short run. Thus our results suggest demand pull inflation in long run.
    Keywords: Cointegration, Vector error correction model and Price indices
    JEL: C32 E31
    Date: 2013–09–22
  5. By: Bouoiyour, Jamal; Selmi, Refk
    Abstract: To effectively assess the link between exchange rate uncertainty and exports performance in Egypt, this article relies on an optimal GARCH model among decomposed series on a scale-by-scale basis via wavelet approach. The observed outcomes reveal that the focal connection depends substantially on the frequency-to-frequency variation and slightly on the leverage effect. Indeed, the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade appears stronger at higher frequencies (i.e., the short-run). When subtracting energy’s share, the results change remarkably. Accurately, the studied relationship becomes more important at lower frequencies (i.e., the long-run). The first findings may be due to the fact that the energy market is mainly driven by a great speculation, coupled with the absence of efficient anti-cyclical fiscal policy and insufficient financial development. We attribute the second ones to the composition of trade partners, the choice of a reference basket’s currencies, the specialization in products with low technological content, the lack of innovative capacity and the weakness of institutions.
    Keywords: Exchange volatility; exports; wavelet decomposition; optimal GARCH model; Egypt.
    JEL: C1 F1 F14
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Driouchi, Ahmed
    Abstract: Abstract: Economic studies on migration of skilled labor are mainly related to those trained in the country of origin but are increasingly including students trained abroad that return or not to their home countries. There are incentives and constraints that are provided by both origin and destination countries but the living conditions and the expected relative wages appear to be the most important sources of attraction of students to migrate. The restrictions of access to some schools such as those of medical sciences and architecture could be also driving further migration. The internationalization of the education system and the delocalization of universities in relation to globalization and trade in services are also encouraging these movements. These directions are likely to be expanded under the high levels of unemployment and the expected low local wages. This paper expands early models of skilled labor migration to account for students. Empirical investigations based on Arab countries are pursued. They show clearly the importance of this movement and its determination mainly by the differences in relative expected wages and the anticipated living conditions.
    Keywords: Keywords: Migration, students, Arab World, OECD, theory, applications.
    JEL: J6 O1
    Date: 2014–09–24
  7. By: Ratti, Ronald A.; Vespignani, Joaquin L.
    Abstract: Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC†and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.†During 1974-1996 growth in non-OPEC oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC oil production. OPEC oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production in the earlier period, but does not do so in the “new industrial ageâ€. In the “new industrial age†OPEC oil production rises significantly with an increase in oil prices, unlike during “the age of OPEC†period. OPEC oil production responds significantly to positive innovations in global GDP throughout. Over 1997:Q1-2012:Q4 the negative effect on real oil price of positive shocks to non-OPEC oil production is larger in absolute value than that of positive shocks to OPEC oil production. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to non-OPEC oil production and to real oil price on OPEC oil production are large. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to OPEC production and real oil price on non-OPEC production are small. Results are robust to changes in model specification. An econometric technique to predict OPEC oil production provides support for the results from the SVAR analysis. Results are consistent with important changes in the global oil market.
    Keywords: OPEC production, non-OPEC, oil Price, global oil market
    JEL: E0 E1 E10 Q4
    Date: 2014–10–01
  8. By: Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Cagri Sarikaya
    Abstract: [EN] In this note, departing from the observation of systematic price hikes in certain products due to a shift in consumption behavior during Ramadan, we investigate the effects of such changes on food inflation. Empirical findings suggest that Ramadan effect is most significant in red and white meat, milk and milk products, while it has strengthened since 2009. Estimated Ramadan effect on consumer inflation through food products may reach 0.15 percentage points. [TR] Bu calismada, Ramazan ayinda tuketim kaliplarinin degismesiyle birlikte belirli urun fiyatlarinda yuksek oranli sistematik artislar oldugu gozlemi paralelinde, gida grubu enflasyonu uzerinde bu doneme ozgu etkiler incelenmistir. Ampirik bulgular, Ramazan etkisinin ozellikle kirmizi ve beyaz et, sut ve sut urunlerinde belirgin olduguna ve 2009 yili sonrasinda guclendigine isaret etmistir. Tuketici enflasyonunda gida grubu kaynakli Ramazan etkisinin 0,15 puana kadar ulasabildigi tahmin edilmistir.
    Date: 2014

This nep-ara issue is ©2014 by Paul Makdissi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.