nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒10‒13
38 papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Intra-Industry Trade and Labour Market Adjustment in Turkey By ERLAT Guzin; ERLAT Haluk
  2. Locational Determinants of Foreign Investment Firms in Turkey By Sevkiye Sence Turk; Lale Berkoz
  3. The Impacts of Sectoral Demand for Military Expenditure on Peace Dividend: A Case for Turkey and Greece By Ali BAYAR; Durmus OZDEMIR
  4. Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963-1999 By ISMIHAN Mustafa; METIN-OZCAN Kivilcim; TANSEL Aysit
  5. Inflation Uncertainty and Risk Premium in Interest Rates: Case of Turkey By Selahattin BEKMEZ; Cem Mehmet BAYDUR; Esat BAKIMLI
  6. Monetary Authorities and Exchange Rate Volatility: Turkey and other Cases By Harald SCHMIDBAUER; Ece DEMIREL
  7. Trade Implications of Turkey's Accession to the EU By Yontem Sonmez; Dr Scott McDonald
  8. Alternative Options in the Design of a CO2 Tradeable Emission Permits Scheme in Turkey By SAHIN Sebnem; PRATLONG Florent
  9. Constructing an Energy-Disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix for Turkey By Dizem Ertac Varoglu; Ali Bayar
  10. The Effects of Natural and Cultural Degradations in Trabzon Karadag High Plateau-Tourism Center, Turkey, on Eco-tourism Activities and Some Solution Proposals By Emrah Yalcinalp; Mustafa Var
  11. Italian trade and direct investment in North Africa By Riccardo Settimo
  12. Market Power and Collusion on Interconnection Phone Market in Tunisia: What Lessons from International Experiences By Sami DEBBICHI; Walid HICHRI
  13. Explaining Trade Shortfalls in the MENA Region By Rania MINIESY; Jeffrey B. NUGENT
  14. Art as an Investment under High Inflation: an Empirical Study on Turkish Paintings By Aylin Seckin
  15. Wages and Human Capital in Exporting Firms in Morocco By Christophe MULLER; Christophe NORDMAN
  16. Foreign Direct Investment and Development in MENA Countries By Anil DIVARCI; Mehtap HISARCIKLILAR; Ozgur KAYALICA; Saime KAYAM
  17. The Effect of Civilian Unemploment on Reenlistment Decision in Turkish Armed Forces By Nebile KORUCU GUMUSOGLU; Julide YILDIRIM; Semsettin KARASU
  18. Tunisia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  19. Turkish EU Membership: a Simulation Study on Economic Effects By Pekka Sulamaa; Mika Widgrén
  20. The Effect of Macroeconomic Policies on the Wave of FDI to the MENA Countries By Nojoud Habash
  21. Business Cycles in Oil Exporting Countries: A Declining Role for Oil? By Salman Huseynov; Vugar Ahmadov
  22. Assessing the Benefits of Telecommunications Liberalization to Tunisia By Ari VAN ASSCHE; Denise KONAN
  23. Testing Random Walk Behavior and Market Efficiency: Evidence from New Emerging Equity Markets in the Middle East By Basher ABUZAROUR
  24. Fostering Inclusive Growth in Turkey by Promoting Structural Change in the Business Sector By Rauf Gönenç; Oliver Röhn; Vincent Koen; Fethi Öğünç
  25. Ten Years after Barcelona, What Lessons ? The Case of Association Agreements between Tunisia and European Union By Sana CHEIK ZAOUALI
  26. Factors influencing the formation of corruption in oil-rich countries By Masoome Fouladi; Hedieh Setayesh; Yazdan Goudarzi-Farahani
  27. Fear of Floating and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Egypt By Hoda SELIM
  28. An Energy Economy Interaction Model for Egypt - Results of alternative Price Reform Policies By Motaz KHORSHID
  29. How do countries measure, manage, and monitor fiscal risks generated by public-private partnerships? Chile, Peru, South Africa, Turkey By Aslan, Cigdem; Duarte, David
  30. Estimating the Impact of Tunisian Training Programs on Wage, Using a Simultaneous Equations Model with Self-Selectivity By Rihab BELLAKHAL; Mohamed-Badrane MAHJOUB
  31. Oil price volatility and exchange rate of USA dollar on point of Iranian paper and wood products By Ali Bayatkashkoli
  32. Effects of rice price change on welfare: Evidence from households in Fars Province, Iran By BAKHSHOODEH M.; PIROOZIRAD M.
  33. Regional Unemployment Rate Convergence in Israel By Natalia PRESSMAN; Vadim KLEPFISH
  34. The Unemployment Situation in Iraq after the War By Paul SLETTEN
  35. Coping with Oil Depletion in Yemen: A Quantitative Evaluation By Thilakaratna RANAWEERA; Srinivasan THIRUMALAI
  36. Rebuilding Iraq: Economic Reform and Transition By Sergei SHATALOV
  37. Turkiye Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Deneyiminde Doviz Kurunun Rolu By Ahmet Benlialper; Hasan Comert
  38. ВЛИЯНИЕ РАЗЛИЧНЫХ КАТАЛИЗАТОРОВ НА ПРОЦЕСС ГИДРОКРЕКИНГА ГУДРОНА By Gulbeniz mukhtarova; Мухтарова Г.С.; Аббасов В.М.; Ибрагимов Х.Дж.; Кольчикова И.В.; Ефендиева Т.Х.; Ибрагимова З.М.; Гусейнова Р.И.

  1. By: ERLAT Guzin; ERLAT Haluk
  2. By: Sevkiye Sence Turk; Lale Berkoz
  3. By: Ali BAYAR; Durmus OZDEMIR
  4. By: ISMIHAN Mustafa; METIN-OZCAN Kivilcim; TANSEL Aysit
  5. By: Selahattin BEKMEZ; Cem Mehmet BAYDUR; Esat BAKIMLI
  7. By: Yontem Sonmez; Dr Scott McDonald
  8. By: SAHIN Sebnem; PRATLONG Florent
  9. By: Dizem Ertac Varoglu; Ali Bayar
    Abstract: This paper outlines how a 2011 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with a rich disaggregation in the energy sectors is constructed for Turkey. The disaggregated SAM incorporates 38 production activities, 9 of which produce energy, 33 commodities, 2 factors of production as labor and capital, three institutional accounts as firms, households, and the government, a separate account for commodity and production taxes, a capital account, and finally the rest of the world (ROW) account. The data is extracted from a diverse range of sources including the Turkish Statistical Institute, Eurostat, OECD, and the International Energy Agency among others.  The cross-entropy method has been used to balance both the aggregated and the disaggregated versions of the SAM. The SAM is the core element of the database of the dynamic CGE model currently being developed for Turkey for climate change, energy, and green growth issues. See above See above
    Keywords: Turkey, Energy and environmental policy, General equilibrium modeling
    JEL: C67 C68 D57 D58
    Date: 2014–07–03
  10. By: Emrah Yalcinalp; Mustafa Var
  11. By: Riccardo Settimo (Banca d'Italia)
    Abstract: More than three years since the events of the Arab Spring, the five North African countries – Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia are still going through a difficult transition. This study provides an overview of Italian trade and direct investment in the region. The main stylized facts are the following: (1) among the countries of the European Union, Italy is the region’s largest trading partner; (2) the region is a crucial source of energy, supplying 31 per cent of the oil and 44 per cent of the natural gas that Italy imports; (3) compared with the EU average, Italian exports are specialized in refined petroleum products and capital goods. The primary objective of Italian firms’ direct investment in North African countries is to enter new markets rather than to secure lower production costs.
    Keywords: international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), North Africa
    JEL: F10 F21 F50 O55
    Date: 2014–09
  12. By: Sami DEBBICHI; Walid HICHRI
    Abstract: We try in this paper to characterize the state of mobile phone market in Tunisia. Our study is based on a survey of foreign experience (Europe) in detecting collusive behavior and a comparison of the critical threshold of collusion between operators in developing countries like Tunisia. The market power is estimated based on the work of Parker Roller (1997) and the assumption of "Balanced Calling Pattern". We use then the model of Friedman (1971) to compare the critical threshold of collusion. We show that the “conduct parameter” measuring the intensity of competition is not null during the period 1993-2011. Results show also that collusion is easier on the Tunisian market that on the Algerian, Jordanian, or Moroccan one.
    Keywords: Termination rate; Market power; Competition; Mobile phone Market.
    JEL: D41 L96 L71
    Date: 2014–09–25
  13. By: Rania MINIESY; Jeffrey B. NUGENT
  14. By: Aylin Seckin
  15. By: Christophe MULLER; Christophe NORDMAN
  17. By: Nebile KORUCU GUMUSOGLU; Julide YILDIRIM; Semsettin KARASU
  18. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. On June 7, 2013, the Executive Board approved a 24-month Stand-By Arrangement in an amount equivalent to 400 percent of quota (SDR 1.146 billion or about $1.75 billion). To date, SDR 573 million equivalent to $877 million has been disbursed. The pillars of the program are to: (i) achieve short-term macroeconomic stability; (ii) lay the foundation for stronger and more inclusive growth; and (iii) protect the most vulnerable. Background. Progress in the political transition is leading to increased donor support this year, including from regional partners. On the economic front, growth remains timid, headline inflation has increased, and rising external imbalances have continued to put pressure on foreign reserves. Program implementation has been satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria have been met. On the structural reform agenda, the authorities have made up for some key delays in areas that include reforming public banks, setting up a household support program, and the tax administration modernization agenda. Program strategy. Prudent fiscal policy, tighter monetary policy, and greater exchange rate flexibility need to be sustained and intensified to contain high external and fiscal deficits, anchor inflationary expectations, and bolster the still lackluster investors’ confidence. Important steps have been taken to strengthen the financial system, notably with the design of public bank restructuring plans, but implementation will be key. Progress on structural reforms—in particular, to improve the business climate—is critical for improving the conditions for private sector-led and inclusive growth. Risks to program implementation are important. Main risks relate to regional and domestic security tensions, setbacks in the political transition, and weaker economic activity in major trading partners. The implementation of program policies will continue to be tested by a difficult social environment and opposition from vested interests. The completion of the fourth review will make SDR 143.25 million (about $220 million) available.
    Keywords: Stand-by arrangement reviews;Economic growth;Fiscal consolidation;Government expenditures;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Letters of Intent;Press releases;Performance criteria modifications;Tunisia;
    Date: 2014–09–15
  19. By: Pekka Sulamaa; Mika Widgrén
  20. By: Nojoud Habash
  21. By: Salman Huseynov; Vugar Ahmadov
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate business cycle regularities in oil exporting countries. We ask the question whether oil exporting countries are all alike or whether economic fluctuations and the response dynamics of macroeconomic variables are similar. Besides we also test for the possible sources of economic fluctuations and whether the oil is the main culprit behind business cycles in oil exporting countries. In this paper, we use different empirical methodologies to gain insights about the nature of the business cycles in the oil exporting countries. First, we draw on annual data to document stylized facts on economic fluctuations in these economies. Second, we also use principle component analysis and extract principle component of the panel on economic variables of the countries under the study. Third, we invoke to the methodology proposed by Giannone, Lenza and Primiceri (2012) to analyze impulse-response functions of GDP, household consumption, government expenditure, investment and import in 13 oil exporting countries under the study. In this study, we investigate the nature and possible sources of economic fluctuations in oil exporting countries using principle component and impulse-response analysis. The principal component analysis shows that the first two components can be statistically significantly explained by world GDP, but not by oil prices. We further develop our study using impulse-response analysis and find that a global demand shock is as important as oil supply and oil demand shocks in determining the dynamics of macroeconomic variables of interest. Though previous studies in this field underline the importance of institutional factors, we find that rising global political and economic integration can play a critical role in explaining business cycles of these economies. With increasing integration into the world economic system, oil exporting countries have become more susceptible to world business cycles, the sources of economic fluctuations have become more diversified, and consequently, the role of oil has declined over time. These results have crucial policy implications for the role of the fiscal and monetary policy in managing economic fluctuations in these economies.
    Keywords: Oil Exporting Countries (Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela), Monetary issues, Energy
    Date: 2014–10–01
  22. By: Ari VAN ASSCHE; Denise KONAN
  23. By: Basher ABUZAROUR
  24. By: Rauf Gönenç; Oliver Röhn; Vincent Koen; Fethi Öğünç
    Abstract: Turkey’s business sector dynamism has underpinned broad-based and inclusive growth in the 2000s. However, the business sector is highly segmented, with a relatively small core of modern high-productivity corporations, and myriad small, less formal and low-productivity entities. This hampers efficient resource allocation and tends to entrench social inequalities. It also makes it difficult to build on-the-job human capital for the large number of low-skilled. This segmentation needs to be overcome to raise productivity in the informal, low-skill and low-productivity sector, and to facilitate resource transfers from low to higher productivity businesses. This ought to be achieved by aligning Turkey’s formal regulatory and tax framework with OECD best practice, rather than through “second-best” arrangements where noncompliance with rules co-exists with selective subsidies to parts of the formal sector. Labour market and business taxation reforms are particularly important to enable all categories of enterprises to operate flexibly on a rule-based, level playing field and to achieve productivity enhancing and socially inclusive restructuring. Promouvoir une croissance inclusive en Turquie en favorisant des évolutions structurelles dans le secteur des entreprises Pendant les années 2000, le dynamisme du secteur des entreprises a alimenté une croissance inclusive reposant sur une large assise. Cependant, il s’agit d’un secteur fortement segmenté, où coexistent un noyau relativement restreint d’entreprises modernes, très productives, et une myriade de petites entreprises moins formelles et à faible productivité. Cette dualité empêche une affectation efficiente des ressources et a tendance à figer les inégalités sociales. Elle rend également difficile la constitution de capital humain sur leur lieu de travail pour les nombreuses personnes faiblement qualifiées. Il faut dépasser cette segmentation afin de relever la productivité dans le secteur informel où le niveau de la productivité et des qualifications est bas, et faciliter les transferts de ressources des secteurs à faible productivité vers ceux où elle est plus élevée. Pour ce faire il conviendrait d’aligner le cadre réglementaire et fiscal formel sur les meilleures pratiques de l'OCDE plutôt que de tolérer le non-respect de la réglementation tout en octroyant des subventions sélectives à certains segments du secteur formel. Il est particulièrement important de réformer le marché du travail et le système d’imposition pour permettre à toutes les catégories d’entreprises de travailler de manière flexible, au sein d’un environnement fondé sur le respect de règles applicables à tous, et d’opérer une restructuration propre à favoriser l’amélioration de la productivité et la cohésion sociale.
    Keywords: productivity, taxation, labour markets, Turkey, growth, informality, structural change, changement structurel, marchés du travail, informalité, Turquie, productivité, croissance
    JEL: J2 J3 O1 O4 O5
    Date: 2014–09–16
  25. By: Sana CHEIK ZAOUALI
  26. By: Masoome Fouladi; Hedieh Setayesh; Yazdan Goudarzi-Farahani
    Abstract: Corruption undermines economic development and therefore it is one of the major factors hindering economic growth and political stability, especially in the developing countries. Studies in recent years show that countries with rich natural resources have the potential to shape corruption. Several studies have been done about this subject and different factors have been considered that most important are mechanisms for transparency, good management, good governance, human development and the degree of state dependence on oil revenues. This paper examines the factors affecting the level of corruption in 31 oil countries. This study uses GMM method and the period of time is 2000 to 2010 The results indicate that the size of the oil sector, government size, inflation, private sector debt, liquidity and democracy have a direct relationship with the level of corruption in these countries. However, the added value of the agricultural and industrial sectors and human development, relationships are reversed. So that with an increase in these indicators, the level of corruption in these countries has declined.
    Keywords: Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, China, Ecuador, Egypt, India, Andvnzhy, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, United Arabic Emirates, United Kingdom, America, Venezuela and Vietnam., Other issues, Socio-economic development
    Date: 2014–10–01
  27. By: Hoda SELIM
  28. By: Motaz KHORSHID
  29. By: Aslan, Cigdem; Duarte, David
    Abstract: The topic of managing fiscal risks arising from public-private partnerships is receiving increased attention as more governments turn toward this type of financing for large infrastructure projects. Governments can manage balance sheet exposure to public-private partnerships by quantifying and capturing direct obligations and provisions for potential calls on government guarantees associated with public-private partnership projects in the preparation of the medium term fiscal framework and annual budget. This working paper examines how four countries with active public-private partnership projects manage the costs and risks of financial obligations generated by these investments throughout the lifetime of the contracts. The paper seeks to complement the existing literature with a practitioner's point of view while exploring if and how these countries monitor and evaluate the fiscal risks generated by the portfolio of public-private partnerships (as well as individual projects). The countries covered are Chile, Peru, South Africa, and Turkey, all of which have experience implementing public-private partnership projects. The research finds that countries have tailored fiscal risk management and monitoring frameworks to fit their circumstances and respective budgeting, accounting, and reporting practices. All four countries assess the overall or partial credit exposure to monitor and manage their fiscal commitments from public-private partnerships in a consolidated way. All countries have developed evaluation models to help assess fiscal risks and assess project and portfolio level credit exposure. Further scrutiny could be focused on budgeting and accounting practices, which could be strengthened and brought in line with international standards. Similarly, sharing and standardizing information would improve transparency and accountability.
    Keywords: Debt Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Public Sector Economics,Access to Finance,Insurance&Risk Mitigation
    Date: 2014–09–01
  30. By: Rihab BELLAKHAL; Mohamed-Badrane MAHJOUB
  31. By: Ali Bayatkashkoli
    Abstract: What is the effect of Shocks of oil price and exchange rate (USA$) on the Iranian point of paper and paper products? Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), estimating equations and Impulse Response Functions (IRF) Shocks of OPEC crude oil price on the point of paper and paper products were diverged, but the shock of USA dollar price hadn’t effected on the paper point.
    Keywords: Iran, Trade issues, Agriculture
    Date: 2014–10–01
  33. By: Natalia PRESSMAN; Vadim KLEPFISH
  34. By: Paul SLETTEN
  35. By: Thilakaratna RANAWEERA; Srinivasan THIRUMALAI
  36. By: Sergei SHATALOV
  37. By: Ahmet Benlialper (Department of Economics, Ipek University); Hasan Comert (Department of Economics, METU)
    Abstract: Doviz kuru ortuk bir politika araci olarak enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulayan gelismekte olan ulkelerde kullanilmis olabilir mi? Bu makale bu soruyu cevaplamak ve enflasyonun belirleyicilerini incelemek icin ornek olarak Turkiye’nin 2002-2008 arasindaki enflasyon hedeflemesi deneyimini incelemektedir. Makalenin temel bulgulari sunlardir: Birinci olarak, Vektor Autoregressif (VAR) modelinden elde edilen sonuclar gostermektedir ki, bu donemde Turkiye’de enflasyonun temel belirleyicileri talep yanli unsurlar degil uluslararasi meta fiyatlari ve doviz kuru gibi arz yanli unsurlardir. Bu durumda, yerli paranin (TL’nin) bu donemde onemli olcude degerlendigini de dusundugumuzde, Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankasi’nin (TCMB) enflasyonla mucadelesinde liranin degerlenmesinden faydalandigi aciktir (bkz. Sekil 2). Bir baska deyisle, 2002-2008 yillari arasinda Turkiye’de yasanan dezenflasyon sureci onemli olcude doviz kurlarinda yasanan gelismelerle aciklanabilir. Ikincisi, ampirik kanitlar gostermektedir ki, TL’nin degerlenmesi TCMB’nin doviz kuruna yonelik asimetrik politika durusuyla iliskilidir. Hem VAR modeliyle yapilan ekonometrik analize hem de betimleyici istatistiklere gore soz konusu donemde liranin degerlenmesine izin verilmis/desteklenmis buna karsin deger kaybi durumunda saldirgan bir sekilde mudahale edilmistir. Biz enflasyon rejimleri altindaki bu durusu “ortuk asimetrik doviz kuru capasi” olarak tanimliyoruz.
    Keywords: Turkiye Ekonomisi, Enflasyon Hedeflemesi, Doviz Kuru, Merkez Bankasi Politikalari.
    JEL: E58 E52 F31
    Date: 2014–09
  38. By: Gulbeniz mukhtarova; Мухтарова Г.С.; Аббасов В.М.; Ибрагимов Х.Дж.; Кольчикова И.В.; Ефендиева Т.Х.; Ибрагимова З.М.; Гусейнова Р.И.
    Abstract: Основной задачей нефтеперерабатывающей промышленности на современном этапе является вовлечение в переработку все более тяжелых нефтяных фракций с повышенным содержанием высококипящих соединений, а также углубление переработки нефти с целью увеличения производства качественных моторных топлив и сырья для нефтехимии. Цель работы исследование процесса гидрокрекинга гудрона смеси Бакинских нефтей в присутствии высокодисперсного наноструктурного суспензированного катализатора под низким давлением для выработки дополнительного количества светлых нефтепродуктов и углубления переработки нефти. Опыты проводились во вращающемся автоклаве (емкостью 1л), при температуре 400 – 4500С, давлении 0.5 – 6 МПа. Полученный гидрогенизат после фильтрации от каталитической добавки и отложившихся на ней коксообразных продуктов, а также металлов Ni, V и Fe, Cu, подвергался разгонке с выделением бензиновой (н.к.-2000С), дизельной (200-3600С) фракций и остатка (>3600C).в результате термокрекинга гудрона с участием водорода (без катализатора) образуется 15% бензиновой и 22% дизельной фракции. При проведении аналогичного процесса в присутствии 1% каолининита, модифицирован ного 5% Ni выход бензиновой фракции возрастает с 15% до 32,8%, дизельной фракции уменьщается с 22% до 19,8%, а выход газов и кокса уменьшается с 18% до 12% и с 13% до 6%, соответственно.
    Keywords: Turkey, Other issues, Other issues
    Date: 2014–10–01

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