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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19321&r=ara |
| By: | Leyla Baştav |
| Abstract: | The study aims to analyze Turkish economy for the period 2000-2012 with emphasis on hysteresis mechanism in labor markets. New Keynesian (NK) framework has natural rate (or Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemploymet - NAIRU) vs alternative theory of hysteresis as explanations for employment patterns. Of the four empirical research one reveals presence of hysteresis in Turkey for the term 1950-1995, whereas two of the remaining three studies for 1980-2011 also provide supporting evidence. In this study NKPC is estimated with labor market variables and additionally PC is estimated in output gap format by OLS. Although labor market equations are inconclusive due to presence of hysteresis, output gap NKPC provides some hinting evidence. This finding is also supported by statistical data analysis on employment, unemployment series and further by analysis on turnover in labor markets and long term unemployment. Hysteresis in Turkey seems to be result of business cycles in the economy (or economic shocks) rather than labor market characteristics, which can be overcome by demand management policies. Labor market and output gap equations in the study should be reestimated in the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (NKWPC) format when wage series becomes available. [1]Only then a better vision will have been obtained on labor market dynamics. On macroeconomic field there is insufficient empirical evidence on dynamics of hysteresis to reach a firm theoretical background . This study may add some information to the relevance of business cycles and recessions for presence of persistent unemployment. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Labor market issues, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:6202&r=ara |
| By: | Anoshirvan Taghipour |
| Abstract: | In the literature, there are many studies to measure financial liberalization indices, but none of them has studied for the case of Iran. Therefore, to fill this gap, in this paper we introduce a comprehensive indicator for financial liberalization which considers various aspects of financial sector reforms. Then, we estimate the index for the case of Iran and compare the results with two ECO members, i.e. Turkey and Pakistan. For the estimation of aggregate financial liberalization index, we use different methods of aggregation such as principal component method (PCM) and simple summation. Our findings show that Ira and Pakistan have started financial reforms since the mid 1990s, while Turkey has started a decade earlier, in 1980s. Moreover, the results show that the level of financial reforms in Iran is not very high amongst the countries considered while the index related to Turkey is higher compare with Iran and Pakistan. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Finance, Regional integration |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6326&r=ara |
| By: | Ayşenur Acar; Cem Baslevent |
| Abstract: | Using a balanced panel data set drawn from TurkStat’s Income and Living Conditions Survey, we examine the transition of Turkish households into and out of poverty. During the four year period (2007-2010) under examination, the relative poverty rate had remained more or less the same in Turkey while the absolute poverty rate declined considerably, implying that households were more likely to exit than enter poverty. In addition to a descriptive analysis in which poor, non-poor, entrant, exitor, and switcher households are compared in terms of basic characteristics, the empirical work features the estimation of binary choice models that assess the relative importance of these factors in determining the poverty status of the households. Comparisons of non-poor vs. entrant and poor vs. exitor households - identified according to both relative and absolute poverty criteria - reveal that factors such as changes in labor income and household composition were mainly responsible for poverty status changes. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Impact and scenario analysis, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5779&r=ara |
| By: | A. Emre AKEL |
| Abstract: | Turkey’s exports have been experiencing remarkable developments in recent years. Turkey’s exports increased from 47,2 billion dollars in 2003 to 152,5 billion dollars in 2012, which implies more than a two-fold increase in 10 years. During the same period, sectoral and regional breakdowns of Turkey’s exports have changed significantly. The sectoral structure of exports, which was heavily dependent on labor-intensive products in 2003, have become significantly capital intensive in 2012. Similarly, the share of the EU in Turkey’s exports decreased from 58% in 2003 to 38% in 2012, while share of MENA increased from 15% in 2003 to 34% in 2012. Although these basic indicators obviously imply a structural change for Turkey’s overall exports, firm-level reasons and outcomes of these developments are yet to be clear. However, Turkey has already set a target of “500 billion dollars of exports in 2023” in the absence of detailed information on firm-level dynamics of her exporters. The main objective of this study is to analyze firm-level dynamics behind the structural change in Turkey’s exports during 2003-2012 and bring out lessons from the past ten years for the upcoming ten years. In this context, this study tries to answer a number of questions such as “Do Turkish exporters export regularly?”, “What are the entry, exit and survival rates for Turkish exporters?”, “Are there any certain group of firms that dominate the developments in Turkey’s exports?”, “What shares do intensive and extensive margins have in Turkey’s exports?”, “What are the sizes of market portfolio and product portfolio in an average exporter in Turkey?”, “How does size and/or continuous exports activities of a firm influence its exports metrics?” and “What lessons do the most affluent ten years of Turkey’s exports bring forward for the next ten years?”. This study mainly focuses on Turkey’s exports between 2003 and 2012, because Turkey’s exports boom began in 2003, mainly thanks to the increasing global demand, especially in the regions surrounding Turkey. In addition, in 2002, after a decade of political uncertainties due to coalition governments, a single-party government came into force and initiated a wide range of structural reforms that continued throughout the analysis period and maintained a stable economy, which annually grew at 5.1% on average despite the %-4.8 growth rate in 2009 due to the global financial crises. Therefore, Turkey’s exports level reached a record-high level in 2012 with 152,5 billion dollars. The exports data used in the analysis are firm-level exports data from TUIK for 2003-2012 at HS 6-digit breakdown. Therefore, the term “an exports good” refers to an HS-6 digit product. To deal with the compatibility issue between HS2002, HS2007 and HS2012 6-digit codes, all the exports goods are defined in terms of HS2002 products using the correlation tables obtained from the UN. The size of the firms are determined by the number of employees they have, where there are 4 main categories namely micro-sized (1-9 employees), small-sized (10-49 employees), medium-sized (50-249 employees) and large-sized (more than 249 employees) firms. In addition, the firms that have less than 250 employees will be referred as SME’s (Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises). The data regarding “the size of the firms” and “whether they are producer or not” are collected from the Ministry of Finance. Although the analysis is based on firm-level data, only category-based results will be presented to secure commercial privacy of Turkish exporters. While STATA 12 and MS Excel 2010 were used for data manipulation to calculate all the metrics mentioned above, a new type of decomposition was used to assess the contribution of “intensive and extensive margins of exports”. The traditional decomposition used by Eaton, Eslava, Kugler, and Tybout (2008), Bernard, Jensen, and Schott (2009), Lederman, Rodriguez-Clare, and Xu (2011), and Amador and Opromolla (2012) and Cebeci and Fernandes (2013) focuses on assessing the roles of continuing exporters, new exporters, and exiting exporters in explaining “total annual export growth”, while this type of decomposition takes into account only two consecutive years (the current year and the former one) while defining a continuing exporter, new exporter, and exiting exporter; whereas it uses one year before and after the current year while defining a survivor. One implication of this approach is, if “Firm A” exports in 2004 and does not export for the following two years, this approach considers Firm A’s exports in 2007 as “exports of a new firm”. Besides, if Firm A exports to a different country or a different product in 2007, it will not be considered as a “market or product diversification” compared to its export in 2004, because of the same reason that it will be counted as exports of a new firm. At the same time, this approach may lead to an underestimated share for intensive margin, since Firm A may have exported the same products to the same markets in 2007; in which case it should be counted in intensive margin. In other words, if the analysis period is more than 3 years, the traditional decomposition approach has a high risk for miscalculation of “firm entry” and “firm exit” values, which would influence all the calculations regarding ‘intensive and extensive margins of exports’, as well as any empirical analysis based on these outcomes. In this study, instead of calculating the contributions to total annual exports growth, the composition of annual exports values will take place using a number of definitions. At first, an “exporter portfolio” for Turkey that includes ‘every exporter that has exported at least once in any year between 2003 and 2012’ was constructed. This definition enables us to clearly determine first-time exporters (firm entries), as well as all-time exporters (survivors), irregular exporters and those export for the last time (firm exits). Once we determine new firms in each year, the rest will be the firms that are already in the portfolio. Also, when a new firm in any year between 2003 and 2011 exports for a second time in any following year given the analysis period, the latter exports of the firm will be treated as ‘exports of a firm in the portfolio’. In addition, for each firm in the portfolio, we can determine whether “a good is exported for the first time or not” or “the destination market is a new market or not”. The goods that a firm exports constitute its “product portfolio”, while the destination countries that a firm exports constitute its “market portfolio”. Therefore, starting from 2003 and evaluating the growing exporters portfolio within years, once we determine the firms that are already in the portfolio, then for each firm, we can bring out whether: 1- A new product was exported to a new market, 2- A new product was exported to an old market, 3- An old product was exported to a new market, 4- An old product was exported to an old market”. Hence, for each year and each firm, we can calculate the value of product diversification ( using 1 and 2) and market diversification (using 1 and 3). Therefore, “Extensive Margin” of Turkey’s total exports can be tracked by summing up firm level exports values for “1 to 3” combined with the contribution of new firms, as well as “Intensive Margin” that will be reflected by summing up firm level exports values for “4- An old product was exported to an old market”. This structure also enables us to identify which countries were the main sources of market diversification and which products were the main sources of product diversification for Turkish exporters. Initial findings of the study can be summarized as below: • Turkey’s exports portfolio between 2003-2012 consists of 140.214 different exporters. • 57.428 of them are producer-exporters. • There are only 8789 firms that continuously exported between 2003-2012 (10-year-survivors). • These 8789 firms constitute 2/3 of Turkey’s exports each year on average between 2003-2012. • 93% of these firms are SME’s. • Around 50% of these firms are producer-exporters. • In the last 5 years, 10.500 new firms on average has entered Turkey’s exports portfolio. • 53% of these firms are micro-scale firms and 40% are small-scale firms. • Each year, on average, 20 out of 100 firms are exporting for the last time. In other firms, firm exit rate for Turkey is around 20%. • Between 2008-2011, each year, on average, 10.700 firms exported for the last time. • On average, each year, 35 out of 100 new exporter firms has exported for the last time. In other words, on average, each year, only 65 out of 100 new exporter firms exported at least once again in the following years. Therefore, the exit rate for new firms is 35% for Turkey. • When we compare ‘the products and the destination markets of one-time exporters’ to ‘the products and the destination markets of new firms that were able to survive in the following years’, we surprisingly face almost the same products and markets. In other words, most of the new exporters tried to export the same product(s) to the same market(s), and only some of them were able to survive while the others were not able to export again. Besides, these destination markets and products were at the top 10 list of Turkey’s exports in each year. Therefore, it seems that in most of the cases, a firm that has never exported before tries to sell a common exports good of Turkey to a familiar exports market,where some fails to export again while some others continue to export in the following years. • Each year, on average, %70 of exporters had at most 3 destination markets in their market portfolio. In other words, only 30% of exporters had more than 3 destination markets in their market portfolio. • Each year, on average, 60% of exporters had at most 5 different products in their exports product portfolio. In other words, only 40% of exporters had more than 5 products in their exports products portfolio. • Between 2003-2012, each year, on average, 63% of Turkey’s total exports were realized by SME’s, while almost 95% of exporters in each year are SME’s. • On average, the size of “product portfolio of a Turkish exporter” increased from 8,8 products in 2003 to 10,9 products in 2012. • On average, the size of “market portfolio of a Turkish exporter” increased from 3,5 destinations in 2003 to 4,4 destinations in 2012. • In 2012, 20% of total exporters exported only a single good to a single market. In 2003, the share of exporters that exported only a single good to a single market was 25%. • The size of the market portfolio and product portfolio is highly correlated to the size of the firm. In addition, survivors have larger market and product portfolios. • For example, in 2012, the average market portfolio size of a micro-scale firm was 2.8, whereas it was 15.8 for a large-scale firm, while it was 23.7 for a ten-year-survivor large-scale firm. Similarly, the average product portfolio size of a micro-scale firm was 9, whereas it was 28.7 for a large-scale firm, while it was 36.2 for a ten-year-survivor large-scale firm. • On average, the share of total market diversification constituted 12.6% of Turkey’s exports each year between 2003 and 2012. • On average, 80% of total market diversification was realized by SME’s each year. • On average, the share of total product diversification constituted 8.3% of Turkey’s exports each year between 2003 and 2012. • On average, 87% of total market diversification was realized by SME’s each year. • On average, contribution of firm entries constituted 3.8% of Turkey’s exports each year between 2003 and 2012. • On average, 80.9% of Turkey’s exports in each year were thanks to the exports of the firms in the portfolio that exported the same product(s) to the same market(s). In other words, on average, intensive margin of Turkey’s exports have 80.9% share in each year. So what lessons do these figures imply and what can be done for a better performance in the next 10 years of Turkey’s exports? The most affluent 10 years of Turkey’s exports were driven by 8789 firms that exported continuously during 2003-2012, constituting 2/3 of all exports in each year. These firms outperfomed the others in all metrics used in this study, which is a clear indication of importance of continuous exports activities and how continuity helps to enhance an exporter’s product and market portfolio. Since nearly all of these firms are SME’s, it is posibble to come up with “success stories”, which would enlight those that were not able to export continuously. In addition, since all of the one-time exporters and other firm exits are identified, the reasons behind their quits can be investigated in detail by implementing surveys. Once the problems are detected, solution-oriented policy options can be generated. At this point, it is obvious that each firm size category imply that different policy options should be genarated for different type of firms. Currently, none of the support mechanisms take into account the different structures that Turkish exporters have, which needs to be fixed to address problems and guide exporters more efficiently. Exports values for intensive margin imply that the firms that exports the same products to same markets are the main reason behind the sharp fall in exports values in 2009, as well as the quick rise in 2010 and onwards. The market portfolio of these firms mainly consist of Euro Zone countries and MENA countries. In this sense, taking into account the global forecasts for these countries on the next ten years combined with the decreasing global demand, Turkey will most likely to face hard times in increasing its exports values unless a structural change occurs on production side, such as shifting to production of high-value added products. Therefore, new policies that focuses on production and exports of high value-added products should be implemented to sustain increase in exports. All in all, given the firm-level structure of Turkey’s exports and the forecasts on decreasing global demand in the upcoming years, reaching 500 billion dollars of exports in 2023 seems not to be rationale for Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Trade issues, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:7126&r=ara |
| By: | Leyla Baştav |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyse Turkish economy for the 2000-2012 term with emphasis on inflation dynamics within the framework of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The aim is to capture whether the inflation dynamics is explained by output gap and/or growth of output explanatory variables or alternatively by level or the rate of change of employment (and unemployment). Price equations are estimated in the form of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) by GMM methodology following unit root tests. There is hysteresis effect in price dynamics and past levels of output effect current inflation. There is hardly any supporting pattern for employment/unemployment level or rate of change variables upto second order lags having any explanatory power for the price inflation dynamics of Turkey. However the study will be extended by new explanatory variables (like marginal cost index, different expected inflation proxy variables etc). |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Macroeconometric modeling, Monetary issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6955&r=ara |
| By: | Can Erbil; Kit Baum; Ferhan Salman |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of banking reform and financial crisis of 2001 on non-financial firm dynamics. Our analysis integrates the two lines of literature on financial liberalization, banking reform and access to capital and banking competition, which were addressed earlier by Bertrand, Schoar and Thesmar (2007) and Cetorelli and Strahan (2006). Our unique firm level survey data from Turkey sheds light on market structure and firm performance. We find that increased banking competition for credit along with banking concentration and financial crisis severely affects access to capital. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced with varying firm size. See above See above |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Finance, Finance |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5674&r=ara |
| By: | Cem Baslevent |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this study is to carry out descriptive and econometric analyses (at the province and district levels) to identify the urbanization–related determinants of the electoral success of the currently-ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP). The AKP is not only the dominant party in the Turkish party system, and but it also is believed to have benefited the most from the existing living conditions of the urban population, especially in the metropolitan areas. Our ultimate goal is to produce empirical findings that provide foresight on future political outcomes under various assumptions regarding education levels, birth rates, and migration patterns.In the absence of individual level data from a comprehensive nationwide survey designed specifically for the purpose of examining the relationships in question, the best alternative is to work with official socio-demographic and election data available at the levels of the major administrative units in Turkey. The empirical work involves the estimation of econometric models where the AKP vote share appears as the dependent variable. The findings from the province level analysis reveal that the available indicators are reasonably good predictors of the dependent variable. It turns out that the urbanization rate is positively related with the AKP vote share. This finding is in line with the hypothesis that the AKP has benefited the most from the existing living conditions of the urban population, especially in the metropolitan areas. To be more specific, the party has been particularly successful in identifying the worldviews and addressing the needs of conservative and generally-underprivileged masses of voters many of whom are first or second generation migrants. The district level analysis also yields results that are in line with our expectations regarding the socio-economic and cultural factors behind the AKP’s success. The high level of support for the party in parts of the province where lower-class native and migrant populations are concentrated is among the key findings of the econometric work. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Socio-economic development, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5960&r=ara |
| By: | Alper Duman |
| Abstract: | Turkey by and large avoided the financial meltdown thanks to its low level of household debt ratio and relatively sound public finance structure. The stylized fact is that the consumption loss as a percentage of GDP has been greater for the countries with higher growth rates of household debt-to-income ratios prior to the global crisis. Although Turkey also witnessed a surge in household debt levels (for example in 2010 among 34 OECD members, Greece and Turkey saw household liabilities increase at fastest pace as 12.1 percent and 10.8 percent respectively), the starting point was so low that the general effect could not be as destructive. We study two main factors that will make this dynamic more fragile and hence lay ground for an imminent financial crisis in the future: (1) Due to formalization of land and real estate markets, home ownership rates decline for the median group of households which constitute the backbone of the labor force, and (2) The share of consumer credit in household budgets increase steadily for the lower three quintiles of the households. Both factors will induce dramatic rises in household debt-to-income ratios and will create systemic financial risks . We follow Hein (2011) and employ a simple Kaleckian closed economy model. By using the model we get comparative statics equation for growth in terms of household debt as a ratio of total disposable income and various parameters/variables including the home ownership rate, interest rate, debt burden. Then we simulate the model in Mathematics to figure out the critical regions in which growth would decline and hence trigger a crisis. Decreasing home ownership rates, decreasing nominal income growth and increasing debt-sensitivity of investment will increase the fragility (by expanding the regions in which growth declines) and hence raise the likelihood of a crisis in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Growth, Microsimulation models |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5259&r=ara |
| By: | Şevket KALANLAR; Dr. A. Ahmet YÜCER; Dr. Muhammet DEMIRTAŞ; Dr. Şevket KALANLAR |
| Abstract: | Due to the increasing oil prices in Turkey, the fuel released with legal regulations, as the supply of fuel and diesel oil from 2013 to domestic agricultural products produced in the gradually bio-fuel blending mandates. Accordingly; the supply of gasoline as fuel types on the market; 2% in 2013, 2014 at least 3% extra for bio-ethanol produced domestic agricultural products is required. Diesel oil; at least 1% in 2014, at least 2% in 2015 and at least 3% in 2016 is produced by domestic agricultural products extra mandates to bio-diesel. The results of the analysis conducted in this context study, costs of policy, import requirement, minimum space requirements adhering to the criteria. Study on bio-fuel raw materials as wheat, corn, sugar beets; sunflower, rapeseed, safflower and soybean is taken into account. 34,5% of the fat in sunflower, soybean 18.2%, 44% of the Canola. Contains of ethanol ratio; 40% in corn, 34% wheat, Sugar beets 11% was accepted.The analysis of bio-energy in Turkey; the need to meet the demand for diesel fuel in 2014 0.169 million tons, 0.351 million tons in 2015, 0,546 million tons in 2016, 0.565 million tons in 2017, 0.583 million tons in 2018, 0.600 million tons in 2019, 2,071 million tons in 2020, have been identified. In Turkey; to meet the demand for fuels product needs 0.144 million tons in 2014, 0.139 million tons in 2015, 0.133 million tons in 2016, 0.127 million tons in 2017, 0.121 million tons in 2018, 0.115 million tons in 2019, 0.363 million tons in 2020 have been identified. The current oilseeds pattern in Turkey and production capacity, the targeted rate of bio-diesel fuel-mixture is quite inadequate to meet the quantity demanded. This demand breaks the food security. Because current agricultural structure and costs within the framework of a single product to meet this demand the impossible. According to the results of the analysis of bio-ethanol; the current crop pattern in Turkey and production capacity from 2013 the rate of bio-ethanol fuel-mixture of targeted demanded quantity is sufficient on its own to meet the bio-energy. In this context the areas of cultivation of agricultural products needed to meet these quantities are determined. Current agricultural policy tools and threads in the current situation are discussed in the context of the future in bio-fuels in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Energy, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6093&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Law and Development - Tax Law Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Economic Theory and Research International Economics and Trade - Trade Policy International Economics and Trade - Free Trade |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19320&r=ara |
| By: | Idil Goksel; Alper Duman |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the network effect on the probability of job finding. This paper uses a specific data set from the Izmir region, prepared by the Turkish Statistical Institute for a specific project carried out by Izmir University of Economics in cooperation with the Izmir Commerce Centre, the Izmir branch of the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Turkish Labour Institute. Its aim was to investigate the labour market situation of Izmir and to understand the main problems of labour market and reasons of unemployment and suggest possible policy implications. During this study we found that the migrants who have moved to Izmir five years or more ago have higher probability to find a job than Izmir born ones. The same argument is also valid for the ones who moved less than two years ago. Only the ones that have moved 2-5 years ago have less chance to find a job. These trends show also difference according to the gender. Furthermore, it is found that migrants tend to earn more relative to the natives. This variety made us think that it will be interesting to analyze this subject a bit deeper. Izmir is the third biggest city in Turkey and has been one of the preferred destinations of migrants. Izmir attracts both skilled and unskilled migrants. Moreover, we believe doing such an analysis at a local level is more promising than doing it in the state level, as it will be easier to isolate the network effects in local level. The paper aims to analyze how the network effect differs between skilled and unskilled people and the nonlinearity in the network effects. It is assumed that the more time spent in a city, the larger is the network and quality of the network connections depend on the job seeker’s qualifications. Using Armengol and Jackson (2007) theoretical model and the empirical framework of Munshi (2003), a probit model that estimates the probability of being employed is used. In the model personal characteristics, the sectors, and the number of years spent in Izmir are controlled for. Moreover, the education levels and occupations of the parents are used as proxies for the size and the quality of the network. It is expected to find nonlinearity in network effects. We also expect to find higher influence of quality of network with respect to its dimension. It will be also interesting to investigate whether network effects differ according to the gender or not. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Labor market issues, Regional modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5245&r=ara |
| By: | Bülent Köksal; Cüneyt Orman |
| Abstract: | Our paper uses a new and comprehensive dataset to investigate the capital structure of non-financial firms in a major emerging market economy, Turkey. We study both statistical and economic significance of four types of leverage factors: Firm-specific, tax-related, industry specific,and macroeconomic. We have included "capital flows" as a new determinant of non-financial firm capital structure in our analysis. We use fixed effects panel data analysis by adjusting the errors for heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. A summary of the issues analyzed in the paper that distinguishes it from the literature. 1. This paper is the first to provide evidence that tradeoff theory better accounts for the capital structure of Turkish firms than the pecking order theory. 2. In the Turkish context, this paper is also the first to show that firms adjust their leverage towards the industry median and that firms match the maturity of their assets and liabilities among several other findings. 3. On a more general level, our dataset is not just bigger and/or newer. It is different from the previous datasets in terms of its coverage of privately-owned firms. Although our dataset includes listed firms, most firms in the dataset are privately-owned, which means that the dataset is much more representative of the actual population of firms, thereby allowing us to take an unprecedentedly more accurate picture of the capital structure of the average (ie typical) non-financial firm. Most studies are silent on this as they focus on firms listed on the stock exchanges. We believe, this aspect of our paper is quite a distinguishing feature. 4. Another novel aspect is that we investigate not only the "statistical significance" of various determinants but also their "economic significance". This is very rare in the literature. Given this, we can rank the relative economic importance of various types of determinants (firm-specific, industry-specific, tax-related, macroeconomic) for Turkey. This can be fruitfully investigated in other countries as well. A statistically significant factor may not have to be very important if it is not economically all that important. This point is rarely made, if at all. 5. Our analysis also sheds light on the statistical as well as economic significance of leverage determinants for short-term, long-term, and total leverage definitions. For example, our findings suggest that if one is analyzing long-term leverage, the most economically important determinant is tangibility or collateral, even before size, profitabiliy, or tax-related factors. 6. Also novel is our finding that short-term debt ratios increase with firm size, but only for firms that are sufficiently large, indicating a “threshold effect” in size for short-term indebtedness. To our knowledge, no previous study has uncovered such a pattern in any country. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Finance, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6405&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Banks and Banking Reform Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19292&r=ara |
| By: | Gamar, Alae; Driouchi, Ahmed |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the inclusion of women in the Moroccan labor markets and businesses through the role of higher education. The paper is based on a descriptive analysis of enrollment in the tertiary education, graduation, business creation, employment and school attainment over the period 1990-2012. This research investigates also the dynamic processes pursued by each variable in relation to gender. It then analyzes the relationships between education and the inclusion of women in the labor markets and businesses. The attained results show that higher education has a statistically significant positive influence on the inclusion of women in the labor market and in business creation. Schooling of women with higher education attainment is an important instrument to be promoted for further inclusion of women in the economy of Morocco. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Women, School attainment, Inclusion, Labor Markets, Businesses |
| JEL: | I25 J2 |
| Date: | 2014–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58072&r=ara |
| By: | Bedri Kamil Onur Tas |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the recent crisis many countries face problems caused by budget deficits. To be able to lower their budget deficits these governments should conduct their expenditures at the lowest possible prices. To achieve this objective many countries use auctions to administer government procurements. Turkey is one of the countries where government procurement is conducted mainly using first-price auction methodology. In this study, we make use of a unique data set provided by the Public Procurement Authority (PPA) of Turkey which comprises detailed information about all GP auctions for the years 2004-2010, 472560 first-price auctions. Using this data set, we empirically investigate the the optimal competitive environment for lowest procurement costs. First, we analyze the effect of number of bidders on the procurement price (winning bid). Then we examine the main research question of the paper and investigate the optimal number of bidders for different types of products which renders lowest procurement costs. In order to examine the research questions raised in the introduction section we conduct the following analysis. First, we run two sets of regressions in order to separately investigate the effects of our explanatory variables on the bidders' decision to enter an auction and how the auction prices are determined. Following Bajari and Hortacsu (2003), we use a negative binomial regression model to analyze bidders' entry decision and how auction specifications affect the number of participants. Then we conduct the auction price determination regression to analyze the determinants of auction prices and the effect of number of bidders on auction prices. We take into account the possible endogeneity. Endogeneity problem might affect the empirical results since unobserved variables correlated both with the number of bidders and with the auction price might exist. We implement the GMM methodology to control for endogenous regressors. Finally, we search for the optimal number of bidders for each product type by comparing the mean of dependent variables for different number of bidders. Estimation procedures and the results are discussed in detail in the following sections. Using this unique data set, we first analyze the determinants of number of bidders. Then, we focus on the effect of competitive environment on the procurement costs by examining the effect of various explanatory variables on the difference between the contract price and the estimated cost of auctions. Finally, we analyze the optimal number of bidders for different product types. We take into account the endogeneity of the number of bidders while conducting these analysis. We have two major results. First, we show that the number of bidders significantly and negatively affects the procurement price. Thus, existence of a more competitive environment significantly decreases government procurement costs in Turkey. Second, the optimal number of bidders to take the full advantage of competition differs among auctions for different types of products. At least nine bidders are needed for services; six bidders are required for the goods and construction auctions to be able to achieve the lowest procurement price possible. The findings of our study are in line with the standard theoretical predictions of the IPVP auction models and confirm some of the key empirical findings of previous studies like Iimi (2006). |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Public finance, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6728&r=ara |
| By: | Khalid Siddig; Harald Grethe |
| Abstract: | 1 Introduction In 2009, major offshore natural gas deposits were discovered in Israel after historically being an energy-poor state relying on imported fossil fuels to meet its energy needs, and an energy island that is disconnected from energy infrastructure in the region, with the exception of gas supplies from Egypt (Shaffer, 2011). Since 2008, Egypt is supplying Israel with 40% of its domestically consumed natural gas. The gas is delivered through a pipeline that connects the Arab (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria) Gas Pipeline with Israel, which branches off from the same pipeline in Egypt. Natural gas entered Israel’s energy mix for the first time in 2004, with a domestic field (Yam Tethys) supplying its production to the market. The consumption of natural gas expanded in 2008, when the Eastern Mediterranean Gas and Oil (EMG) Company began importing natural gas from Egypt to Israel. The EMG supplied 2.5 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) of natural gas to consumers in Israel in 2010, which was nearly 50% of the 5.3 BCM consumed in Israel in 2010, while the rest was supplied by domestic fields (Shaffer, 2011). There is no detailed information available on the level of the preferential price paid by Israel and its difference from the world price of natural gas. However, according to Khadduri (2011), the initially agreed upon price was 3 to 3.5 dollars per million British thermal units (Btu). Khadduri (2011) also reports that in August 2009, the Israel Electric Corporation (the primary consumer of gas exports from Egypt) approved an adjusted price of 4 to 4.5 dollars per million Btu. Approximately 425 BCM of natural gas was discovered in 2009 and 2010 close to Israel’s Mediterranean coastline in different fields namely, Tamar, Dalit, and Leviathan. According to IsraelStrategist (2011), the Tamar field was the largest natural gas discovery in the world that year and is expected to meet Israel’s gas needs for up to the next three decades. The Leviathan field was discovered in December 2010 representing the largest natural gas discovery in the world in the past decade, and is predicted to satisfy Israel’s domestic gas needs indefinitely and will potentially be used for export. The start of production of the two fields is expected in 2013 and 2016, respectively (Ratner, 2011). With the newly discovered fields of Natural gas, Israel could get into a situation where it displaces its gas imports from Egypt, which would according to Ratner (2011) bring benefits for both countries. First, there is public discontent in Egypt against the sales of gas to Israel particularly after the January revolution as Israel pays below market prices for the natural gas it imports from Egypt (Ratner, 2011). As a consequence, the gas pipelines used for transporting the Egyptian gas to Israel have been attacked more than ten times since the Egyptian revolution in January 2011, causing Israel’s gas supply to be temporarily cut off (Afify and Fahim, 2011; Elyan, 2011). Therefore, ending exports to Israel would have political advantages, while sustaining natural gas exports to Israel seems doubtful in post-revolution Egypt. In addition, there might be the option of changing the agreement between the two countries in a way that increases the price paid by Israel for the Egyptian gas, which could improve Egypt’s trade balance (Ratner, 2011). As a second option, Israel may decide to continue importing the cheaper Egyptian gas and using the additional production for exports to destinations such as Europe or even countries in the middle east such as Jordan. This is expected to improve Israel’s energy security and generate economic benefits. 2 Objectives/ Research questions This paper uses a global applied general equilibrium model that links the Israeli economy with the rest of the world including Egypt to investigate the economic implications of different gas scenarios on the Israeli economy: • What are the macroeconomic implications of increasing the price of Egyptian gas exports to Israel and equalize it to the price of gas paid by countries in the region such as Jordan? • The recent discoveries of the three major fields of gas in Israel (Tamar, Dalit and Leviathan) are expected to begin production in 2012-2013, 2013-2013, and 2016-2018, respectively (Ratner, 2011). What are the implications this may have on the Israeli economy at large, and on the livelihoods of different household groups? • At which level of domestic gas output would Israel (1) reach the self-sufficiency in gas, (2) start exporting domestic gas to other regions, and (2) eliminate its gas imports from Egypt? • How would the impact on the Israeli economy of the three scenarios mentioned above differ, should some rigidity be introduced in the model according to which Israel’s ability to re-source its imports of gas to regions other than Egypt would be limited? 3 Methodology We use an applied general equilibrium model that links the Israeli economy with the rest of the world including Egypt. The newly developed MyGTAP Model (Minor and Walmsley, 2012) is an extension to the GTAP model (Hertel, 1997) that modifies the original single regional household to allow for multiple households. The new specification improves the treatment of government income and expenditures, which helps to better track the effects of the gas-related simulations on the government accounts. In order to be able to use the MyGTAP model, the GTAP Data Base will be modified to break out the one regional household into multiple households following the work of Minor and Walmsley (2012). We do this using the newly developed Israeli Social Accounting Matrix, which has information, on 10 different household groups classified according to ethnicity to Jewish and non-Jewish and according to income level to five quintiles for each ethnic group (Nwafor et al. 2010). The structure of MyGTAP also draws the important linkages among household groups and production factors by assigning the income of the different factors of production to the designated household group through the ownership of factors by household groups. This advantage is particularly useful in the Israeli context because of the very detailed nature of the production factor’s account in the Israel SAM (Siddig et al., 2011). The SAM breaks down the factor account to 38 subaccounts including land, capital and 36 different labor categories. The latter classifies labor according to skills, ethnicity, and gender, besides being legally or illegally employed . Despite the fact that MyGTAP provides many country-specific features, it also lacks some of the major feature of the standard model (Hertel, 1997) because it is still in the development process. The welfare decomposition module of the standard GTAP model is not yet incorporated in MyGTAP as it relies completely on the regional household concept, which is broken down to private households and government accounts in MyGTAP. Therefore, it was found essential to incorporate the standard model as well, so as to report major parts of the results of this study. One other important feature of this study that needs the standard model is that it runs a couple of pre-simulation scenarios to update the database so as to better reflect the structure of the gas sectors in Egypt and Israel and afterwards, it uses the updated database as a new base. Such a feature is still to be incorporated in MyGTAP model. 4 Data adjustments This study uses an adjusted GTAP database prepared by Siddig and Grethe (2012) for an impact assessment of gas scenarios on the Egyptian economy. Siddig and Grethe (2012) aggregated the standard GTAP regions and commodities to 45 and 40, respectively. Afterwards, they adjusted the structures of the gas sector in the database for Egypt and Israel and made it reflecting its state in 2010 based on different sources of data including BP (2011), ICBS (2011), and CAPMAS (2011) among others. For the purpose of this study, the regions and sectors of Siddig and Grethe (2012) are further aggregated to 24 and 16, respectively. The mapping between the 24x16 and 45x40 aggregations for sector and regions is shown in Appendix (1) and Appendix (2), respectively. The most relevant sectors besides gas such as crude and refined oil, gas manufacturing and distribution, and electricity are represented separately in the sectoral aggregation. Agriculture is represented by three major aggregates, namely, ‘agricultural crops’, ‘meat and livestock’, and ‘forestry and fishing’. Another three major aggregates reserved for services, four major aggregates for industries, and the rest of mining is aggregated in one sector. As shown in Appendix (2), regional aggregation separates regions for Israel, Egypt, and the rest of MENA together. In addition there are regions for each of the major players in gas trade such as the USA and Russia, while separating the major importers of the Egyptian gas each in a region such as Italy and Belgium. After the setup of the final aggregation of the database, a pre-simulation is applied to generate a new database following the “Altertax” approach of Malcolm (1998) . Atertax is applied to introduce the difference between the average world price of gas and the preferential price that Israel pays for its imports of gas from Egypt in 2008 . the updated database afterwards represents the base for our simulations, to which any changes are compared. 5 Simulation scenarios Four simulation scenarios are simulated in this study in connection to the research questions raised in section 2 of the paper. Each of the four scenarios is run twice, once in the standard GTAP model and in addition in the MyGTAP model. This makes the findings of the study more comprehensive as it benefits from the advantages of both models and considers them complements to each other. The specific scenarios of the paper are the following: Scenario1: increasing the price paid by Israel for its imports of gas from Egypt and equalizes it to that paid by other importers such as Jordan; this is done by removing the designated subsidy that was introduced in the Altertax pre-simulation. Scenario2: increasing the production of domestic gas in Israel by 100%, which is a conservative projection for the production in the next 2 years based on Ratner (2011) and Nobel Energy (2010). This simulation is introduced by augmenting the technology parameter of the production factors in the gas sector, based on the fact that the reserves are natural resources and would be exploited by contracts with foreign companies including but maybe not limited to Nobel Energy (Ratner, 2011). Scenario3 and Scenario4 replicates Scenario1 and Scenario2, respectively using a version of the models that introduces the Israeli geopolitical situation in a form of rigidity in the trade parameters, i.e. Armington elasticity of imports of gas from different regions. 6 Preliminary findings Preliminary findings of the price scenarios, namely Scenario1 and Scenario3 are found to generate negative welfare impact on the Israeli people despite the improvement that they bring to the Israeli trade balance with the latter being due to the decreasing imports of gas from Egypt. Introducing the rigidity to the gas trade was found to have a significant impact particularly on the welfare figures produced by the models. While Scenario1 generates a welfare loss of US$ million 157, Scenario3 would make it US$ million 362. The positive change in the trade balance would be US$ million 102 and US$ million 239 for the two simulations respectively. Nonetheless, the impact of the two simulations on the Israeli GDP is quite small as they lead to a slight decline in GDP value index by 0.10% and 0.22% due to Scenario1 and Scenario3, respectively. Results of the domestic production scenarios (i.e. Scenario2 and Scenario4) on the other hand tell a slightly different story at least on the most aggregate level represented by overall welfare, overall trade balance and GDP. Welfare gains of US$ million 548 and US$ million 544 are generated due to the two scenarios respectively, while negative changes of US$ million 96 and US$ million 127 are shown for the trade balance. The difference between the model parameter being flexible or rigid is the context of the production simulations is found to be less influential compared to the price simulations due to direct connection to the trading sector in the latter case. The impact of the two simulations on GDP is also low: the percentage increase of the GDP value index is 0.45% and 0.44% under Scenario2 and Scenario4, respectively. Keywords: Natural gas, discoveries, Israel, Egypt. 7 References Afify, Heba and Fahim, Kareem (2011): Gunmen Attack Sinai Gas Pipeline. The New York Times. Published: July 30, 2011. Accessed on January11, 2012.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/world/middleeast/31egypt.html?_r=2. BP (2011): British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy. June 2011. bp.com/statisticalreview. Accessed on January 2, 2012. BMI (2009). Business Monitor International. Egypt Oil and Gas Report 2010. Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series. ISSN 1748-3948. Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. CAPMAS (2011): Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics, Egypt in Figures. http://www.capmas.gov.eg/pdf/egypt10/indst10/51.pdf. Accessed in January 2, 2012. Elyan, Tamim (2011): Blast hits Egypt's gas pipeline to Jordan and Israel. Reuters Reporter (CAIRO | Sun Dec 18, 2011 5:13am EST). Accessed on January 11, 2012.http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/18/us-egypt-explosion-idUSTRE7BH07N20111218. Hertel, Thomas; Hummels, David; Ivanic, Maros and Keeney, Roman (2007): How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements? Economic Modelling 24 (2007) 611–635. Hertel, Thomas (1997): Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. (editor), Cambridge University Press. ICBS, 2011. The Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. Energy Balance of Israel. http://www1.cbs.gov.il/energy/new_energy/new_enr_nach_eng_new_huz.html. Accessed on December 29, 2011. IMF (2005): Arab Republic of Egypt: Selected Issues. International Monitory Fund (IMF) Country Report No. 05/179, June 2005. Khadduri, Walid (2011): Egyptian gas exports to Israel. Al-Arabiya online, Monday, 21 February 2011. http://www.alarabiya.net/views/2011/02/21/138539.html. Accessed April 16, 2012. Malcolm, G., 1998. Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base. GTAP Technical Paper No. 12. http://docs.lib.purdue.edu/gtaptp/15. Accessed on April 16, 2012. Nobel Energy (2010): Nobel Energy announces significant discovery at Leviathan offshores Israel, Nobel Energy Press Release, December 29, 2010. http://investors.nobleenergyinc.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=539152. Accessed on December 3, 2012. Shaffer, Brenda (2011): Israel: new natural gas producer in the Mediterranean. Energy Policy, 39 (2011) 5379–5387. Siddig, Khalid, Flaig, Dorothee, Luckman, Jonas and Grethe, Halrald (2011b). GTAP 8 Data Base Documentation - Chapter 7. R: Israel, in Narayanan, G., Badri, Angel Aguiar and Robert McDougall, Eds. 2012. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 8 Data Base, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University. Ratner, Michael (2011): Israel’s Offshore Natural Gas Discoveries Enhance Its Economic and Energy Outlook. Congressional Research Service. 7-5700, R41618. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R41618.pdf. Accessed on January 2, 2012. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, Israel, General equilibrium modeling, Trade issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5446&r=ara |
| By: | Suresh Naidu; Yaw Nyarko; Shing-Yi Wang |
| Abstract: | In 2011, a reform in the United Arab Emirates allowed any employer to renew a migrant's visa upon contract expiration without written permission from the initial employer. We find that the reform increased incumbent migrants' earnings and firm retention of these workers. This occurs despite an increase in employer transitions, and is driven by a fall in country exits. While the outcomes of workers already in the United Arab Emirates improved, our analysis suggests that the reform decreased demand for new migrant workers and lowered their earnings. These results are consistent with a model in which the reform reduces the monopsony power of firms. |
| JEL: | J42 J6 O15 O53 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20388&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19323&r=ara |
| By: | Yahya özdemir |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan, Turkey, Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in addition to research, technology development and production partner countries ' Innovation structures sharing with R&D Center in technoparks, thanks to the advanced technology and the production of these technoparks produced this advanced technology, technology to provide application process so that it can be imported, and the country's socio-economic and technical ways by its proponents, to serve together in the development of the total synergies "of the economic cooperation organization" will have an important place in the world economy and will create a strategic vision in this geography perception is of great importance.Advanced technologies in the world, especially in the last quarter century of rapid change, radical innovation were required to compete in important decisions, triggered by the national network of cooperation structures is a very significant changes in participates in the regional country or new technology generation and transfer systems to be released; starting from the most basic research on the effect of knowledge production, commercialization, distribution of the total well-being of society is an important dating "shining knowledge value chain". This important change, has become the main formative element of the economies. Recent advances in the knowledge economy and the resulting new strategic theories, knowledge, technology transfer and increased mobility at the long distances, the concept of regional development is a brand new technological cooperation aims and information focusing on the transformation processes of growth of the economies of developed nations are experiencing today, which is the most important technological innovation in the vision of the economic development advanced plays an important role, evolving processes trigger in all aspects of the right to readmost threats and opportunities that might be the best analysis, by passing the appropriate policies for countries in their visions, and entrusted a vital importance. |
| Keywords: | TURKEY, Socio-economic development, Other issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5842&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment - Environment and Energy Efficiency Energy - Electric Power Private Sector Development - E-Business Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19329&r=ara |
| By: | Karim Mohamed; Adil El Ibrahimi |
| Abstract: | For these reasons, agriculture took advantage of big tax exemptions renewed until the end of 2013. The tax exemption of the sector is supposed to promote, attract and develop private investments. Actually, in the two last years, agricultural sector was the second one, after real estate, to benefit from exceptional fiscal measures, which represents almost 13,4% from the total measures according to the census of 2011. Dynamic EGC Model apart from the question of the place occupied by Moroccan agriculture into the economy, that led to the conception and the implementation of green morocco plan, we have to notice that tax exemption of agriculture has been the matter of royal concern, thanks to the high royal guidance to set up an appropriated system for agricultural sector since 2014, by taking into consideration the social instability of simple farmers. |
| Keywords: | Morocco, Agricultural issues, Agricultural issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5476&r=ara |
| By: | Şevket KALANLAR; Dr.A. Ahmet YÜCER; Dr.Şevket KALANLAR; Dr.Muhammet DEMİRTAŞ |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study demographic characteristics of consumers, to identify the relationship between living standards and food shopping habits, determine the level of awareness by the MFAL of measures taken to ensure food safety and to develop recommendations in this context.Research is the largest city in Turkey and 13.7 million people live in Istanbul, made in the first quarter of 2013. Proportional sampling method was used in this study. Making process of sampling margin of error of 1.4% and the 95% confidence interval studied. In addition to the unknown probability value of the subject on the values of p and q are considered to be 0.5. 2106 as a result of the calculations according to these data, the sample size was determined as t. Chi-square analysis of the data, Visual Relationship analysis (TIA), and logistic regression analyzes were used.Consumers are average age 38.32, college graduates 46.3%, family population 3.4, number of children 2.6, the average family income 2.495 TL/month, average food expenditure 610 TL/month, Consumers are the most purchase from supermarkets that red meat (45.3%), chicken meat (56.5%), milk (70%), dairy products (74.8%) while they purchase fresh fruit and vegetables from district market (47.3%), while food most of their attention to freshness and expiration date, reliable information for the food they receive a large proportion of TV and the internet have been identified. MFAL for public health policies, bread, salt and bran rates and arrangements for the school milk program and school canteens located right by consumers and supported. In some applications (increasing the amount of control, establishment of ALO Food Line and implementation arrangements for the sale of pesticides) and are no longer seen by consumers largely underreported. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Agriculture, Other issues |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6087&r=ara |
| By: | Motaz Khorshid; Asaad El- Sadek |
| Abstract: | The Egyptian revolution broke out in January 25, 2011, a revolution that sparked the national movements in the Arab world, and impressed the world as a model of an unprecedented popular peaceful uprising included all the spectrums of Egypt's society. It revolution addressed all forms of corruption and tyranny as well as to lift the banner of freedom, justice and democracy. In June 30, 2012 Mohamed Morsi was elected as a president of Egypt for a mandate of 4 years. Despite the people's aspiration for a better future, the continuation of the political instability, social injustice and economic problems during the year following the election have generated an increased feeling of insecurity and discontent. In June 2013, the Egyptian people decided to rebel against the unsatisfactory performance of the new political regime and succeeded to isolate the president with a support from the national military force. Since January revolution of 2011 and during the following transition period, Egypt continued to witness a considerable slowdown of its economic activity, a drop in domestic and foreign direct investments, a sizable decline in industrial production, a notable deterioration in foreign reserves and foreign exchange revenues and a growing government deficit. In January 2014, Egypt's socioeconomic indicators are still showing a declining trend reflected in; i) less than 2 percent increase in GDP coupled with a stagnated per capita real income, ii) an investment rate fluctuating around 16% of GDP compared to 22% in 2008, iii) a continuing low rate of national savings, iv) a sizable decline in the foreign direct investment flows - which amounted to about U.S. $ 2 billion per year - compared to an average of 13 billion dollars during the 1990 decade and the begin of the current century, v) an exacerbation of the unemployment problem, especially among youth and educated women with an average unemployment rate of more than 13% compared to 9% or less five years ago, vi) a high poverty rate accounting to more than 25% of the total population compared to less than 17% at the beginning of the third millennium, vii) a continuing budget deficit and unprecedented levels of domestic public debts exceeding 80 percent of GDP in June 2013, viii) A trade deficit in the current account of the balance of payments showing a continuous declining trend and ix) an upward rising trend of inflation derived by the prevailing increase in the state budget deficit. Against this background, the Egyptian Cabinet approved in 28/08/2013 an urgent plan to stimulate the economy during the period from July 2014 until June 2017 (3 years). The overall objectives of this medium-term plan is to achieve a GDP growth rate between 5% and 7% and reduce the unemployment rate to less than 9%, which represents the prevailed rate before January 25. The plan primarily depends on improving investments environment by relying on private, public and foreign direct investments (FDI). The plan suggests also an increased role of government in revitalizing the economy, with respect to investment spending, employment strategy and exports promotion policy. To support the development and follow up of the three year stimulating plan of the Egyptian economy and to determine the required investment allocation and government spending policies, a three-sector five-institution economy wide model is constructed, implemented as an analytical tool for formulating and testing alternative socioeconomic development policies and scenarios. The constructed model reflects the structural features of the Egyptian economy and its modes of functioning and it is implemented using the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) software. It is particularly designed to project Egypt's socioeconomic indicators and assess the impact of alternative policy measures and external conditions including: (1) Investment spending policies explained in the allocation of private and public gross fixed capital formation, (2) foreign direct investment (FDI) flows needed to complement domestic investments in support of the growth prospects of the economy, (3) government spending policies broken down into government wage bill, final consumption spending and transfers to domestic and foreign institutions, (4) government fiscal policy including various tax and subsidy programs, (5) export promotion policy, (6) total factors productivity and labor efficiency policies, (7) external balance policy reflected determined by investment income from abroad, worker remittances, interest on foreign assets and foreign transfers from abroad , (8) wage rate and commodity pricing policies and finally (9) alternative population, labor force and unemployment policies. The development planning model represents an economy with three productive activities (primary, industrial and services activities), six institutions (urban and rural households, private and public corporations, and general government) and the outside world. Domestic institutions have both current and capital accounts. Factors of production include labor and capital services. Labor factors (or compensation of employees) are broken down by economic activity ( private, public and government labor) and household area (urban and rural). Capital services include both public and private accounts. Commodities are composed of domestic, imported, exported and composite (including both domestically produced and imported goods ) with each of them divided into primary, industry and services. Gross capital formation is composed of private (households and private companies) and public ( government and public enterprises) investments as well as foreign direct investments (FDI). Government account disaggregates tax income into direct and indirect taxes and subsidies. Finally, the rest of the world account includes net transfers from abroad in the form worker's remittances, investment income, foreign direct investments and other current transfers to domestic institutions as well as imports and exports of goods and services. The Planning model is viewed as a consistent economy wide simulation model - following the general equilibrium tradition - and it is equipped with a set of dynamic adjustment mechanisms to ensure the generation of the future path of the economy. The model adopts an investment/saving macroeconomic closure rule that treats public and private gross fixed capital formations as exogenous variables, gross savings as an endogenous variables and the foreign savings that clear the macroeconomic system. Production sectors apply a flexible price clearing mechanisms with an imperfect substitution between domestic and imported goods. Distribution of gross output between domestic sales and exports is based on a constant elasticity of transformation (CET) function. Transfers from the rest of the world are fixed in foreign currency whereas transfers of the domestic institutions to the outside world are a function of their disposable income. Exports of commodities are computed as the equilibrium quantity between supply of and demand for exported goods and services. The ratio of domestic to world price of commodity and the elasticity of trade determines world demand for exports. Government income is composed of direct and indirect taxes, public enterprises transferred operating surplus and transfers from domestic and foreign institutions. Government final consumption spending is fixed in real term and public savings are computed as a residual. Households and companies expenditures are computed as a fixed share of their nominal income and household final consumption spending is computed by a linear expenditure system (LES) . The model is equipped with institutional capital flows matrix that balances exogenous investments with savings and capital transfers. Given market imperfection and high unemployment rates, wage rates are fixed within period but change between periods based on employment and wage policy. Natural growth rate of population and labor participation policies are used to dynamically adjust population and labor force size between periods. The dynamic adjustment of capital stock between periods - by production activity - is based on the initial capital stock, gross fixed capital formation in real term and the consumption of fixed capital. Similar dynamic adjustment mechanisms are derived for investment income from abroad and foreign direct investments (FDI). The purposes of the paper are: (1) to assess the economic impact of the revolution and highlight the principal economy wide challenges facing the Egyptian economy, (2) to develop the accounting framework, economic rationale and mathematical structure of the economy wide model used to test the development policies of the stimulating plan, (3) to use the developed model to simulate the behavior of the economy under the selected policy measures and development choices of the three year plan, and (4) to suggest appropriate action plans and implementation programs to achieve the purposes of the three-year economic recovery measures. Based on this rationale, the paper is centered around five sections. After an introductory part describing the post revolution economic performance and the most important challenges facing the Egyptian economy, the second and third sections outline the accounting framework, economic rationale, overall structure and disaggregation level of the model as well as the policy measures amenable to analysis based on its structure. The fourth section describes the results of applying the model to assess the impact of the three year stimulating plan with special emphasis on the capacity to reach the planned targets and the feasibility of the selected policy measures. Highlights of policy recommendations and suggestions are introduced in the last section. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, General equilibrium modeling, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:7264&r=ara |
| By: | Nicolas Moumni; Benaissa Nahhal |
| Abstract: | In the context of international financial crisis, this paper aims to analyze the impact of liquidity level on effectiveness of monetary policy transmission of the Moroccan central bank (Bank Al Maghrib, BAM). After a long period of liquidity excess, the Moroccan banking system through, since 2007, a liquidity shortage that forces BAM to inject a regular and massive quantity of liquidity. For example, 7-day advances bidding BAM rose from 3,5 billion dirhams in 2006 to 2,420 billion dirhams in 2012, an increase by 691 times. To evaluate the influence of liquidity level on effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission of Bank Al Maghrib, we estimate a simple VAR over the period 1998-2012 by distinguishing the period of liquidity excess and liquidity shortage.Our results show that in periods of liquidity excess the monetary policy transmission would be less effective, especially in the long term. Instead, a situation of liquidity shortage makes it more effective. |
| Keywords: | Morocco, Monetary issues, Macroeconometric modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6662&r=ara |
| By: | Ulrike Lehr; Anke Moennig |
| Abstract: | Degradation of the environment, including the pollution of water, soil and air, the irreversible loss of biodiversity, and depletion of natural resources are global threats to sustainable development. The threats are enhanced by the impact of climate change already being felt in many developing countries. These challenges have led to the postulate of making the way we produce, work and travel more compatible with the ecological limits and boundaries of our planet. On the social level, the challenges of large unemployment especially among young people, the questions of inclusion and participation of the population in a better, healthier and safer life seem equally unresolved in large parts of the world. Under the headline of Green Economy suggestions have been made in the course of the RIO+20 conference on the question how these challenges can be addressed by a harmonized approach. Currently, this is being translated into practice . To develop the respective policies, legislation and support mechanisms, a rigorous framework of evaluation has to be established. The analysis of the status of green and decent employment and of the potential for the creation of green and decent jobs in the future is a necessary first on the pathway to a green economy. The International Labor Organization (ILO) supports a series of studies in an attempt to develop a method for the measurement of green and decent employment. This paper deals with a study of this series which evaluates green employment in Tunisia. For Tunisia after the Revolution of 14 January 2011 the targets of a transition to a green economy overlap with some of the most pressing needs and challenges the country is facing with respect to economic, environmental and social changes. The approach consists of two parts: firstly, we construct an Input Output table where we can identify green sectors or shares of sectors which can be labeled “green”. A consistent method has been developed to construct such a matrix. From an original (N x N)- IO matrix, the result then is a (2N x 2N) matrix. The construction involves the definition of sectors which are totally green, of sectors which cannot be green and of sectors which have green and non-green parts. The overarching definitions are taken from the joint definitions of UNEP and ILO for green economic activities. Additionally, consistency between the original values of the IO table and the new sums of rows and columns has to be assured by a set of rules, which are defined in detail in the paper. In a next step, the cost structures for the green and the non-green parts are analyzed. For most sectors, the cost structure of the green part and the non-green part is the same. One notable exception is organic farming which, in comparison to conventional farming, exhibits shifts in the input structure from fertilizers (chemical industry) to machinery and labor. The latter shift can be read as a shift in value added shares, too. Secondly, we build a macro driven small IO model (cf. also Lehr et al. 2013, Renewable energy and energy efficiency in Tunisia – employment, qualification and economic effects) for Tunisia to forecast green employment development at the mid-term time horizon. Different scenarios then are defined together with stakeholders and fed into the model. The comparison of simulation runs allows for estimates of green employment under the different scenarios and employment differences under different strategies. Green jobs are currently found in Tunisia predominantly in the waste and water sector. In other sectors, the shares of green employment today are still rather low, with a larger share in services and administration than in the productive sector. This structure is typical for a developing country of Tunisia’s size and endowment. For future prospects, the opportunities lie in the production of consumption goods, i.e. also changing peoples’ preferences towards the environment, in improvements in the waste treatment and in a better integration of overall industrial production so that indirect employment effects can grow. The results compare well with other works by the ILO and UNEP on green employment in developing countries. The paper will give quantitative scenarios, results and policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Tunisia, Macroeconometric modeling, Energy and environmental policy |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6664&r=ara |
| By: | Dirk Willenbockel; Abeer Elshennawy; Sherman Robinson |
| Abstract: | Due to the high concentration of economic activity along the low-lying coastal zone of the Nile delta and its dependence on Nile river streamflow, Egypt's economy is highly exposed to adverse climate change. Adaptation planning requires a forward-lookingn assessment of climate change impacts on economic performance at economy-wide and sectoral level and a cost-benefit assessment of conceivable adaptation investment. The study aims to demonstrate the usefulness of an intertemporal computable general equilibrium modelling approach for such an assessment. This study develops a multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model with forward-looking agents, population growth and technical progress to analyse the long-run growth prospects of Egypt in a changing climate. Based on a review of existing estimates of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, labor productivity and the potential losses due to sea-level rise for the country, the model is used to simulate the effects of climate change on aggregate consumption, investment and welfare up to 2050. Available cost estimates for adaptation investments are employed to explore adaptation strategies. On the methodological side, the present study overcomes the limitations of existing recursive-dynamic computable general models for climate change impact analysis by incorporating forward-looking expectations. Moreover, it extends the existing family of discrete-time intertemporal computable general equilibrium models to which our model belongs by incorporating population growth and technical progress. On the empirical side, the model is calibrated to a social accounting matrix that reflects the observed current structure of the Egyptian economy, and the climate change impact and adaptation scenarios are informed by a close review existing quantitative estimates for the size order of impacts and the costs of adaptation measures. The simulation analysis suggests that in the absence of policy-led adaptation investments, real GDP towards the middle of the century will be nearly 10 percent lower than in a hypothetical baseline without climate change. A combination of adaptation measures, that include coastal protection investments for vulnerable sections along the low-lying Nile delta, support for changes in crop management practices and investments to raise irrigation efficiency, could reduce the GDP loss in 2050 to around 4 percent. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, Impact and scenario analysis, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5325&r=ara |
| By: | Ali Yousefi; Parisa Karbasi; Amir-mozafar Amini |
| Abstract: | Abstract Production of animal protein has a major role in the human nutrition and health and a large share of economic value-added in agricultural sector. The Iran government implemented the Subsidy Reform Plan (SRP) on December 18, 2010 as the biggest surgery to the nation's economy in half a century in order to replace the subsidies on bread and energy (80% of total) with targeted social assistance. Given the importance of dairy industry, it is essential to determine the positive and negative impact of SRP. The aim of this study is to analysis the temporal effect of SRP on the comparative advantage of dairy farms in 2009 and 2011.Data was collected from a survey of 65 members of Isfahan Industrial Dairy Farms Cooperation through face-to-face interviews based on a structured questionnaire. The comparative advantage of dairy farms has been analyzed in the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) framework by calculation the ratios of domestic resource cost (DRC), social cost benefit (SCB), nominal protection coefficient of the product (NPCO, NPCI) and effective protection coefficient (EPC).The results indicate that after SRP, the government introduced the new milk price distortion in order to support the consumers, the nominal protection coefficient on tradable inputs (NPCI) has been decreased and farmers pays indirect tax. Moreover, the dairy farms still have the comparative advantage of production, but the DRC ratio has been increased. In order to improve the dairy farm profitability and the farmer’s motivation, it is important to removal of the output price distortions and enhancing farmers' access to input markets. |
| Keywords: | Iran, Agriculture, Tax and public finance |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:6048&r=ara |
| By: | Abdollah Mahmoodi |
| Abstract: | Brain drain Impacts on production Endowments Demand and Prices Brain drain Impacts on Real GDP and Welafre Global trade analysis project reduction in real gdp and welfare in Iran Different impacts on production factors' market |
| Keywords: | Iran and Western countries, Regional modeling, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6579&r=ara |
| By: | Motaz Khorshid; Asaad El- Sadek |
| Abstract: | Since January revolution of 2011, Egypt is witnessing a slowdown of its economic growth, a drop in domestic and foreign direct investments, a considerable decline in industrial production, a notable deterioration in foreign reserves and a growing government deficit. To overcome these unfavorable effects of the post revolution transition period, the Egyptian government decided to formulate a 10-year socioeconomic development plan (2011-12- 2021-22). To support the post revolution development planning process, an extended dynamic economy wide model is constructed and implemented. The model is designed to capture on the one hand, the behavior of the economy wide variables during the recovery period of the economy and to project on the other hand, its growth prospects up to 2021-22. The purposes of the paper are: (i) to assess the current status of the Egyptian economy and its post revolution performance., (ii) to briefly describe the accounting framework, economic rationale and mathematical structure of the dynamic economy wide model, and (iii) to outline the main findings of using the model to carry out goal seeking analysis . The paper is organized around five sections. After an introductory part, the second section outlines the accounting structure of the model. Section three explains the economic rationale and structure of the model. Section four analyzes the obtained results. The last section highlights the main findings with special emphasis on the achievement of the planning targets. The general hypothesis of the 10-year plan is that Egypt will succeed to double its real Per-Capita GDP, reduce the unemployment rate to only 4% and considerably improve welfare level of its citizens. To achieve these goals, the plan relies primarily on enhancing the investments environment. It is assumed then that the gross fixed capital formation in real term will witness a gradual increase with the objectives of raising its share in GDP to around 32 percent at the end of the planning period. The plan assumes as well a considerable increase in foreign direct investments (FDI) and a novel role of government with respect to investment spending, employment policy, encouraging private initiative and promoting exports. When these policies are coupled with improved external balance and enhanced factors productivity, the hypothesis of doubling income and reducing unemployment rate to 4% is expected to be realized. To allow for testing the plan assumptions and main hypotheses, an extended three-sector five-institutions medium/long term economy wide model was constructed and implemented using GAMS. The model follows the computable general equilibrium (CGE) tradition with enhanced inter-period dynamics and detailed treatment of the saving-investment relations. It is developed around a consistent social accounting matrix (SAM) using national income accounts, public finance indicators, balance of payments data and labor market survey The model is used to generate two development paths; the first path (Investment growth) relies on gradually increasing investment spending and attracting more direct foreign investments (FDI). The second development path (Investment growth with productivity) adopts – in addition to investment growth measures - a comprehensive policy package for enhancing total factor productivity. Based on the adopted policy packages, the development paths of the economy can be explained as follows: First, The two tested scenarios have considerably improved the performance of the economy and accelerated its return to normalcy, particularly with respect to the growth, employment and welfare prospects. Both scenarios succeeded also to accelerate the economic recovery period. The investment growth scenario failed however to achieve the planned target of doubling the real per-capita income. Second, the model results suggest that an enhanced investment growth policy should be coupled with a comprehensive package to enhance total factor productivity in order to reach the target of doubling the per-capita income. In light of this finding, the growth of per-capita real GDP – under the two scenarios –is expected to witness an overall increase of 49 percent and 105 percent, respectively. Third, achieving the plan targets is expected to contribute to a structural changes reflected in the relative weights of GDP uses. Fourth, the above results depends to a great extend on the success of the Egyptian government to mobilize domestic and foreign resources in order to achieve a surge in investment spending and a sizable growth in total factors productivity. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, Impact and scenario analysis, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5121&r=ara |
| By: | Reza Bagherian; Majid Sanaei |
| Abstract: | The degree of popular participation in development programs is a major determinant of success or failure but the factors which make participation efforts successful still remained a mystery. Many studies have developed numerous and sometimes different views concerning to the dimensions of participation. Most of these literature's tends to be descriptive and rarely applies theory. This study was designed to analyze and modeling the people participation in Watershed Management Programs in Iran by using the framework of social exchange theory and determine the role of this theory in explaining people participate in Watershed Management Programs.In this Research we have modeled social exchange theory as an approach to people participation in watershed resources management projects in Iran.Multiple regression analysis discovered that exchange factors explained 33 percent of variation in the level of people participation in watershed management programs. This study found that social exchange theory is an appropriate perspective to explain level of people participation but participation is a complex issue and future researchers might use multiple perspectives for explaining participation. |
| Keywords: | Iran, Environmental and water issues, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:005741:5817&r=ara |
| By: | Amavilah Voxi (Phoenix AZ/USA); Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Andrés Antonio (Madrid/Spain) |
| Abstract: | A previous analysis of the impact of formal institutions on the knowledge economy of 22 Middle-Eastern and Sub-Sahara African countries during the 1996-2010 time period concluded that formal institutions were necessary, but inadequate, determinants of the knowledge economy. To extend that study, this paper claims that globalization induces peace and stability, which affects governance and through governance the knowledge economy. The claim addresses one weakness of previous research that did not consider the effects on the knowledge economy of globalization. We model the proposition as a three-stage process in four hypotheses, and estimate each hypothesis using robust estimators that are capable of dealing with the usual statistical problems without sacrificing economic relevance and significance. The results indicate that globalization has varying effects on peace and stability, and peace and stability affect governance differently depending on what kind of globalization induces it. For instance, the effects on governance induced by globalization defined as trade are stronger than those resulting from globalization taken to be foreign direct investment. Hence, we conclude that foreign direct investment is not a powerful mechanism for stimulating and sustaining the knowledge economy in our sample of countries. However, since globalization-induced peace and stability have both positive and negative effects on governance simultaneously, we also conclude that while the prospect for knowledge economy in African countries is dim, it is still realistic and attainable as long as these countries continue to engage in the kind of globalization that does indeed induce peace and stability. We further conclude that there is a need for a sharper focus on economic and institutional governance than on general governance as one possible extension of this paper. |
| Keywords: | Globalisation; Peace and Stability; Governance; Knowledge Economy |
| JEL: | I20 I28 K42 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:14/012&r=ara |