nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒08‒28
27 papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Self-Assessed Health Status in Turkey by Demographic Factors, Labor Market Status and Risky Health Behaviors By Aysıt Tansel; Karaoğlan, Hanife Deniz
  2. Pollution and International Trade: Evaluation of the Turkish Case through Input-Output Analysis By Tunç, Gül Ipek; Türüt Aşık, Serap; Akbostancı, Elif
  3. Some Thought Experiments on the Changes in Labor Supply in Turkey By Üngör, Murat
  4. Demographic Determinants of Women Participation in Labour Force: Analysis of Turkey both General and Nuts 1 Regional Basis By Sevgi, Hande; Işık, Ebru; Serim, Havva
  5. Minsky Perpective on the Macroprudential Policy By Oğuz Esen; Ayla Oğuş Binatlı
  6. Price Asymmetry in Farm-Retail Price Transmission in the Turkish Dairy Market By Bor, Özgür; İsmihan, Mustafa; Bayaner, Ahmet
  7. Growth and Structural Transformation in Turkey By Öztürkler, Harun
  8. The Impact of Military Spending and Income Inequality on Economic Growth in Turkey, 1963-2008 By Töngür, Ünal; Elveren, Adem
  9. Republic of Turkey Reform for Competitiveness Technical Assistance : Fostering Open and Efficient Markets through Effective Competition Policies By World Bank
  10. Quantitative Assessment of Inflation Pressure during a Transition to Inflation Targeting By Halit Aktürk; Diana N. Weymark
  11. How regional integration and transnational energy networks have boosted FDI in Turkey (and may cease to do so): a case study: how geo-political alliances and regional networks matter By Sanchez Martin, Miguel Eduardo; Escribano Frances, Gonzalo; de Arce Borda, Rafael
  12. Determinants of Capital Structure : Evidence from a Major Developing Economy By Bulent Koksal; Cuneyt Orman
  13. The Structure of the Turkish Banking Sector Before and After the Global Crisis By Aytul Ganioglu; Vuslat Us
  14. A Look at the Structural Bank Regulation Initiatives and a Discussion over Turkish Banking Sector? By Burçhan Sakarya
  15. Egypt : Economic Monitoring Note, Spring 2013 By World Bank
  16. Kingdom of Morocco : Climate Change Strategy Notes By World Bank
  17. Egypt : inequality of opportunity in education By Ersado, Lire; Gignoux, Jeremie
  18. The Roots of Gender Inequality in Developing Countries By Seema Jayachandran
  19. Turkiye'de Kapsayici Buyume By Temel Taskin
  20. Kadın İstihdam Sorunu ve Türkiye By Dilbaz Alacahan, Nur; Ataklı, Rüya
  21. Türkiye’de Sigara Talebinin Analizi: İki aşamalı Heckman Süreci By Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu
  22. Yabancı Banka Girişlerinin Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri By İbrahim Tokatlıoğlu; Yağmur Tokatlıoğlu
  23. AB-15 Pazarinda Rekabet Gücümüz: Yaygın ve Yoğun Marjlar By Ekmen Özçelik, Seda; Erlat, Güzin
  24. Türkiye İş Gücü Piyasasi Dinamiklerinin Yapisal Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (SVECM) İle Analizi By Yıldırım, Zekeriya
  25. Türkiye’de 2008 Krizinin Eksik İstihdama Etkileri By Acun, Serdar
  26. AB Uyum Sürecinde Türkiye’de Çevre Politikaları By Gamze Yıldız ŞEREN; Emin DEDEBEK
  27. Kamu Kesiminde Finansal İstikrarsızlık: Türkiye’ye İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme By Oğuz Arslan

  1. By: Aysıt Tansel (Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Karaoğlan, Hanife Deniz (Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey)
    Abstract: In this study, we provide both a descriptive analysis and ordered probit analysis of the self-reported health status for adult men and women in Turkey. Self -reported health is considered to be a reliable measure of adult health status and comparable to the clinical measures of health status. We will report on how self- reported health varies by demographic factors, such as education, household income, age, region and gender. We will also consider how Self-reported health varies by labor market indicators. Further, we will also provide evidence on the self -reported health and its variation by different risky health behaviors. The risky health behaviors considered are smoking, drinking, lack of exercise and the body mass index (BMI). Finally, the variation of SAH by objective health measures will be examined. For the study, we will use Health Research Survey of Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) for 2008 and 2010. This will be the first study of self -reported health status by gender in Turkey. It will provide a baseline for further studies of the various aspects of health issues in Turkey.
    Keywords: Turkey, Self-Reported Health, Education, Risky Health Behaviors, Demographic Factors, Objective Health Criteria, Ordered Probit.
    JEL: I10 I12 I19
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Tunç, Gül Ipek (Department of Economics, METU, Ankara, Turkey); Türüt Aşık, Serap (Department of Economics, METU, Ankara, Turkey); Akbostancı, Elif (Department of Economics, METU, Ankara, Turkey)
    Abstract: Environmental impacts of international trade have been on the agenda of both academicians and policy makers in the last decades. Different aspects of the relationship between international trade and environment have been investigated by utilizing different models either for single countries or for group of countries. This study mainly aims to explore the pollution content of international trade of the Turkish economy. For this purpose input-output methodology is employed. In recent years input-output methodology is widely used in environmental issues since with this methodology both direct and indirect effects of production and consumption on the environment can be identified explicitly. Though there are alternative measures, in this study to quantify the effects of environment on international trade, “the balance of emissions terms of trade” (BETT) will be calculated. BETT mainly measures the difference of pollution embodied in exports and pollution embodied in imports. Therefore a positive BETT suggests that Turkish exports are more pollution intensive than her imports and vice versa. While trade volume has been increasing in the Turkish economy, we aim to test whether Turkey becomes a net exporter or importer of pollution. The findings of the study are also interpreted in terms of clean and dirty sectors of the Turkish economy. As pollution indicators mainly carbon dioxide emissions of fuels like coal, natural gas and oil will be calculated. Additionally, as the main data source the latest three input-output tables of the Turkish economy will be utilized.
    Keywords: Pollution, International Trade, Input-Output, Turkey
    JEL: C67 F14 Q40
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Üngör, Murat (Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Ankara, Turkey)
    Abstract: Turkey has the lowest hours worked (the product of total employment and annual hours per worker, divided by the size of the working-age population) among the OECD countries. We study the changes in hours of work following Ohanian, Raffo, and Rogerson (Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008) and find that the intratemporal first-order condition from the neoclassical growth model accounts for the decline in total hours worked during 1998-2009 in Turkey. Hours worked increased in Turkey since 2009 and the model accounts for half of that increase between 2009 and 2011. Our findings suggest that time-varying taxes on consumption and labor play significant roles in explaining the hours worked in Turkey. The subsistence term is quantitatively important during 2003-2011. The presence of government consumption in the utility function does not seem very important.
    Keywords: Labor supply; employment; hours of work; growth model; taxes; Turkey.
    JEL: E13 E20 E60 J22 O50
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Sevgi, Hande (Gazi University, Department of Economics); Işık, Ebru (Gazi University, Department of Economics); Serim, Havva (Gazi University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Several studies have been done about women participation in labour force. When the economic development aspect is considered, studying on determinants of women participation in labour force becomes more important. In this study, an approach has been taken into consideration in which demographic factors thought to affect women's labour force participation such as age, educational status and marital status were monitored. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of the factors mentioned previously so that the regional effects can be seen besides the general tendency in Turkey. In this context, Turkish Statistical Institute Household Labour Force Survey 2011 NUTS 1 raw micro data has been used for Binary Logistic Regression Analysis. Within the survey rural and urban segregation has been examined. Findings are thought to be a guideway for making regional policies.
    Keywords: Women Participation in Labour Force, Regional Economic Development, Logistic Regression.
    JEL: R23 J21 J82
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Oğuz Esen (Izmir University of Economics, Department of Economics); Ayla Oğuş Binatlı (Izmir University of Economics, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: The recent global financial crisis has underlined the need to go beyond the microprudential perspective to financial instability and move in a macroprudential direction. There is a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that macroprudential policy should be adopted. Through these changes, policymakers appear to be moving in a direction broadly consistent with Minsky’s view.The theoretical framework of macroprudential policy can be found in Minsky’s financial instability theory. Emerging economies, including Turkey, have adopted macroprudential tools to prevent and mitigate system wide risks. This paper offers a Minsky perspective on macroprudential policy and evaluates macroprudential tools through an examination of the Turkish experience as a case study.
    Keywords: Macroprudential policy, Minsky, Reserve Requirement
    JEL: E58 E60 G01
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Bor, Özgür (Atilim University/Department of Economics); İsmihan, Mustafa (Atilim University/Department of Economics); Bayaner, Ahmet (Akdeniz University/Department of Management)
    Abstract: This study investigates the price asymmetry in farm-retail price transmission in the Turkish milk market. An asymmetric error correction model is applied on the monthly price data, and the results suggest that there is a positive price asymmetry in the farm-retail price transmission in the Turkish dairy market. That is, the retail prices tend to adjust more quickly to the input price increases than to its decreases which yield welfare losses to the consumers. In addition, cointegration results imply that there is a significant market power in the dairy market.
    Keywords: Price Asymmetry, Turkey, Milk, Error Correction Model
    JEL: Q11 C22
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Öztürkler, Harun (Department of Economics, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyon, Turkey)
    Abstract: Structure of the economy refers to the shares of the broad sectors agriculture, industry, and services in gross domestic income (GDP) and employment. On the other hand, structural transformation refers the change in these shares over time. The purpose of this study is to enhance our understanding of the forces behind structural transformation and investigate the link between economic growth and structural transformation in Turkey. The study begins by reviewing and evaluating the literature on structural transformation. Then the study empirically investigates the process of transformation and its link to economic growth on the basis of a multi–sector growth model. The study compares the structural transformation process in Turkey with that of some other countries on the basis of the findings of similar studies. The study concludes by making sub-sectoral economic policy suggestions in order to raise economic growth.
    Keywords: Structural Transformation, Growth, Turkey.
    JEL: C50 C60 E20 J20 O40
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Töngür, Ünal (Middle East Technical University/Economics, Ankara, Turkey); Elveren, Adem (Sutcu Imam University/Economics, Kahramanmaras, Turkey)
    Abstract: An extensive literature on the effect of military expenditures on economic growth yields conflicting results. A crucial issue that has not been investigated in this context is the possible effect of inequality. The impact of military expenditures on economic growth in Turkey has also received substantial attention. However, the majority of these studies are not constructed based on a structural model, but rather examine the causality between the variables in question. Considering these two shortcomings in the literature and the lack of consistent results, this study attempts to provide further evidence for the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth for the case of Turkey by considering income inequality within an augmented Solow growth model. Our findings for the 1963-2008 period show that while income inequality has a positive impact on economic growth, military expenditures have no significant effect.
    Keywords: Military expenditure, growth, income inequality, human capital, Solow growth model
    JEL: C22 H56 O11
    Date: 2013
  9. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Education - Knowledge for Development Environmental Economics and Policies Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Economic Theory and Research Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Environment
    Date: 2013–09
  10. By: Halit Aktürk (Meliksah University, Department of Economics, Kayseri, Turkey); Diana N. Weymark (Vanderbilt University, Department of Economics, Nashville, TN, USA)
    Abstract: This study provides a detailed quantitative analysis of a transition to inflation targeting with a focus on the role of expectations. We investigate the impact of the Turkish central bank’s inflation reduction programs on inflation in Turkey from 1996 to 2005. Over this period there was a transition from non-targeting to semi-formal targeting, and then, finally, to full-fledged inflation targeting. In order to analyze the effectiveness of Turkish monetary policy quantitatively, a structural model of the Turkish economy that allows for structural breaks is estimated under the alternative assumptions of rational expectations and adaptive learning. Using these estimates, counterfactual experiments are conducted to obtain ex ante and ex post inflation pressure measures which characterize, respectively, the pre-policy and post-policy inflationary environment. To evaluate the impact of the central bank’s disinflation program on its credibility, we introduce an index of monetary policy credibility that is new to the literature. The inflation pressure indices indicate that there was no significant difference between the inflationary environments in the 2002-2005 periods as compared to the 1996-2001 periods. However, the monetary policy effectiveness index shows that the semi-formal inflation targeting program that was implemented from 2002-2005 was considerably more successful in reducing inflation than the policies in the previous period had been. Surprisingly, the index of monetary policy credibility suggests that the improvement in inflation control was not accompanied by a significant improvement in the central bank’s credibility.
    Keywords: inflation pressure, transition, counterfactual, monetary policy
    JEL: E50 E52 E58
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Sanchez Martin, Miguel Eduardo; Escribano Frances, Gonzalo; de Arce Borda, Rafael
    Abstract: Turkey has historically struggled to attract foreign investors. This paper argues that not only macroeconomic and political stability, but also regional integration explains the upsurge in foreign direct investment observed since 2005. The analysis draws from a qualitative framework. It discusses how, contrary to the Customs Union Treaty for industrial products with the European Union, the official start of the European Union's accession to negotiations in 2005 encompassed a wide set of reforms in several chapters directly or indirectly affecting the business climate. The reforms helped to enhance foreign direct investment attraction in Turkey. However, it seems that the global economic slowdown starting in 2009 and increasing Euro-skepticism have already started to erode this effect. Only large foreign investment in the energy sector observed in 2009-13, explained by the energy security strategy of the European Union and the privatization agenda, has prevented the collapse of foreign direct investment inflows to Turkey.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment,Investment and Investment Climate,Knowledge Economy,Trade Liberalization,Oil&Gas
    Date: 2014–07–01
  12. By: Bulent Koksal; Cuneyt Orman
    Abstract: A major shortcoming of capital structure studies on developing economies is that they generally restrict their analyses to large publicly-traded manufacturing firms. Consequently, we know little about the applicability of various capital structure theories to firms that are private, small, and/or outside the manufacturing industry in these economies. In this paper, we conduct a comparative test of the trade-off and pecking order theories using a comprehensive firm-level dataset that covers manufacturing, non-manufacturing, small, large, publicly-traded, and private firms in a major developing economy, Turkey. The trade-off theory provides a better description of the capital structures of all firm types than the pecking order theory. Moreover, the trade-off theory appears to be particularly suitable for understanding the financing choices of large private firms in the non-manufacturing sector and when the economic environment is relatively stable. By contrast, pecking order theory is most useful when it comes to small publicly-traded manufacturing firms, especially when the economic environment is relatively unstable.
    Keywords: Capital Structure, Non-Financial Firms, Pecking Order Theory, Trade-off Theory, Turkey
    JEL: G30 G32
    Date: 2014
  13. By: Aytul Ganioglu; Vuslat Us
    Abstract: This paper tests the effects of the global crisis on the structure of the Turkish banking sector using bank-level data during 2002Q4-2013Q3 period and employing random effects model. The selected dependent variables are financial ratios on capital adequacy, asset quality, liquidity, profitability, balance sheet and income-expenditure structure; while main determinants are bank-specific control variables on overdue loans, overhead costs, bank size and FX open position as well as dummy variables for bank age, bank listing and ownership. Other determinants include growth, inflation, policy rate, exchange rate and required reserves, which capture the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions on bank structure. Estimation results suggest that the structure of the Turkish banking sector has indeed changed after the global crisis. This result can be attributed to the increased significance of the monetary policy and changing macroeconomic conditions in the post-crisis period. Meanwhile, bank-specific determinants, which are important before the crisis, are found to have an even accentuated effect on the structure of Turkish banks in the aftermath of the global crisis. For refinement of these results, future research may elaborate on how ownership matters with respect to the changing structure of the Turkish banking sector and may analyze whether banks respond assymetrically to the global crisis. Prospective studies may also examine the individual aspects of this changing structure. In this regard, profitability and bank lending behavior stand out as major issues to be explored further.
    Keywords: Global crisis, Turkish banking sector, Random effects model, Monetary policy, Ownership, Profitability
    JEL: C23 E44 E52 G01 G21
    Date: 2014
  14. By: Burçhan Sakarya (BRSA (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency), Strategy Development Department, Turkey)
    Abstract: Following the 2007-8 Global Crisis, a significant shift is observed towards the international regulatory approach about the banks. Apart from reform efforts from international institutions such as the IMF, G20 and BIS, several proposals are set forward in some advanced financial systems. Moreover, it is debated that, these so called structural bank reform efforts, also present a chance to indirectly solve the issue of “To-big-to-fail” problem, the SIFI-“systemically Important Financial Institution” problem by its new title. In this study the fundamental characteristics of globally known structural bank reform initiatives are compared and a panel data analysis conducted for the Turkish commercial banks for the 2002-2012 period to investigate the effect of risk diversification on profitability to test for diversification in bank activities.
    Keywords: : Structural Reforms in Banking, Turkish Banking Sector
    JEL: G21 G01 C23
    Date: 2013
  15. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Environment
    Date: 2013–03
  16. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Science and Technology Development - Science of Climate Change Environmental Economics and Policies
    Date: 2013–12
  17. By: Ersado, Lire; Gignoux, Jeremie
    Abstract: The paper examines the levels and trends in access to education and educational outcomes across generations of Egyptian youth. Examination of three cohorts of individuals aged 21 to 24 (born between 1964 and 1967, 1974 and 1977, and 1982 and 1985) shows that access to education has substantially improved during the last three decades. Completion rates increased by more than 60 percent at the preparatory level and 70 percent at the secondary level and the college completion rate more than doubled. However, significant inequities remain in access to education and educational outcomes. The fraction of never enrolled among the cohorts is still large, affecting more girls than boys, more rural than urban areas, and more children of parents with lower level of education and in elementary occupations, such as subsistence agriculture. The analysis of test-scores from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) and national examinations shows that more than a quarter of learning outcome inequality is attributable to circumstances beyond the control of a student, such as parental education, socioeconomic background and place of birth. In Egypt, inequality of opportunity in learning outcomes emerges early and builds up progressively throughout the education levels. Access to higher education continues to remain significantly lower for children from rural areas and for those whose parents have a low level of education or are engaged in elementary occupations. Tracking into vocational and general secondary schools, which depends on a high-stakes national examination, and high and unequal levels of household expenditures in private tutoring substantially contribute to unequal learning outcomes.
    Keywords: Education For All,Primary Education,Teaching and Learning,Secondary Education,Access&Equity in Basic Education
    Date: 2014–08–01
  18. By: Seema Jayachandran
    Abstract: Is the high degree of gender inequality in developing countries—in education, personal autonomy, and more—explained by underdevelopment itself? Or do the societies that are poor today hold certain cultural views that lead to gender inequality? This article discusses several mechanisms through which, as countries grow, gender gaps narrow. I argue that while much of the GDP/gender-inequality relationship can be explained by the process of development, society-specific factors are also at play: Many countries that are poor today have cultural norms that exacerbate favoritism toward males. Norms such as patrilocality and concern for women's "purity" help explain the male-skewed sex ratio in India and China and low female employment in India, the Middle East, and North Africa, for example. I also discuss why the sex ratio has become more male-skewed with development. Finally, I lay out some policy approaches to address gender inequality.
    JEL: J16 O10 O14 O15
    Date: 2014–08
  19. By: Temel Taskin
    Abstract: [TR] Bu calisma Turkiye'nin son on yildaki GSYH buyumesini "kapsayicilik" acisindan incelemektedir. Bunu yaparken Anand vd. (2013)’un gelistirmis oldugu, buyumenin kisi basina dusen milli gelir ve dengeli dagilim bilesenlerini bir arada incelemeye olanak taniyan yeni bir olcum metodu kullanilmaktadir. Temel bulgular Turkiye'de buyumenin 2002-2011 donemi icin kapsayici oldugunu gostermektedir. Bolgesel ve donemsel gelismelere odaklanildiginda, buyume performansi acisindan bolgeler arasinda ve alt donemlerde farklilasmalar dikkati cekmektedir. Ayrica, bolgesel analiz bulgulari Turkiye'nin GSYH buyumesinde kisi basina dusen milli gelir-dagilim odunlesimi ortaya koymaktadir. [EN] In this paper, we discover the inclusiveness of GDP growth in Turkey over the course of the last decade. In doing so, we use a recently developed method a la Anand et al. (2013) which integrates per capita income and distribution dimensions of economic growth in a single measure. We find that Turkish GDP growth was - on average - inclusive between 2002 and 2011. We also investigate cross-region and over-time developments for the available data period, and document significant heterogeneity in inclusiveness of economic growth across these dimensions. Moreover, the regional analysis based on 2006-2011 period reflects an efficiency-equity tradeoff in Turkey’s economic growth.
    Date: 2014
  20. By: Dilbaz Alacahan, Nur (Department of Economics, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Turkey); Ataklı, Rüya (Department of Economics, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Turkey)
    Abstract: Ekonomik kalkınmanın gerçekleştirilmesinde çıkış yollarından biri beşeri sermayedir. Beşeri sermayenin geliştirilmesi Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkeler için son derece önem arz etmektedir. Bu gelişim, 2012 yılı verilerine göre Türkiye nüfusunun %49.8’ini oluşturan kadınların da işgücü piyasasına yeteri düzeyde katılımı ile gerçekleştirilmelidir. Sürdürülebilir kalkınmada önemli bir unsur olan kadın işgücü, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde temelde kültürel faktörler, beşeri sermaye düzeyindeki farklılıklar ve kadınların emek piyasalarındaki konumlarını düzenleyen/etkileyen kamu politikaları gibi çeşitli nedenlerden dolayı emek piyasasına yeteri düzeyde katılamamaktadır. Bu durum eksik istihdam, GSYIH’nin artırılamaması, yoksulluğun artması, verimliliğin azalması gibi önemli sorunları da beraberinde getirmektedir. Çalışmada öncelikle kadın işgücünün ve kadının işgücüne katılımının ekonomideki önemi belirtilmekte, seçilen gelişmekte olan ülkeler bazında mevcut durum incelenmekte ve Türkiye örneği üzerinde durulmaktadır.
    Keywords: İstihdam, Kadın İşgücü, Türkiye
    JEL: E24 J16 O50
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Seval Mutlu Çamoğlu (Ordu University/Economics Department, Unye, Ordu, Turkey)
    Abstract: Kamu sağlığına yönelik uygun politikaların belirlenmesinde, tüketen ve tüketmeyen hanehalkının profilinin ortaya konulması, uygulanan politikaların etkinliğinin artırılması açısından oldukça önemlidir. Türkiye sigara kullanımının yoğun olduğu ülkelerden biridir. 2012 verilerine göre, Türkiye’de sigara kullanma oranı erkeklerde %41,5, kadınlarsa ise %13,2 düzeyindedir. Hanehalkının bazı sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik özellikleri, sigara tüketimini farklı düzeylerde etkilemektedir. Bu çalışma ile hanehalkına ait bu özelliklerin sigara kullanım talebi üzerindeki etkileri ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışmanın birinci temel hipotezinde, hanehalkının sigara kullanmayı tercih edip etmeme durumlarını etkileyecek sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik faktörler test edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ikinci temel hipotezinde sigara kullanmayı tercih edenlerin, tüketimlerini etkileyen faktörler analiz edilmiştir. Bu araştırmada kullanılacak veriler, 2011 yılına ait TÜİK Hanehalkı Bütçe Araştırması Mikro Veri Setinden alınmıştır. Bu çalışmada Heckman iki aşamalı talep modeli kullanılarak tahmin yapılmıştır. Bu modele göre hanehalkına ait sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik değişkenlerdeki değişimin farklı iki etkisi bulunmaktadır. İlk aşamada, hanehalkında sigara kullanıp kullanmama olasılığının etkisi Probit modeli ile hesaplanmaktadır. Bu modelden Ters Mill Oranı hesaplanmakta, ikinci aşamada regresyon denkleminde enstrüman değişken olarak kullanılmaktadır. Pozitif gözlemler için bu alışkanlığın tüketim düzeyini nasıl etkilediği ortaya konulmaktadır. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre kent yaşamı ve çalışma hayatının beraberinde getirdiği stres özellikle sigara kullanımında önemli bir faktör olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Diğer taraftan eğitim düzeyinin düşük olması da bireylerin sigara kullanımının beraberinde getirdiği zararların farkında olmamasında oldukça etkilidir.
    Keywords: Sigara talebi, Hanehalkı mikro veri, Heckman modeliClassification-JEL: D03, D12, D18
    Date: 2013
  22. By: İbrahim Tokatlıoğlu (Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey); Yağmur Tokatlıoğlu (Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey)
    Abstract: Kuramsal olarak piyasaya yeni firma girişlerinin, yoğunlaşmayı azaltarak kârlılığı düşüreceği, rekabeti artıracağı kabul edilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, 1980 sonrasında Türkiye ekonomisinde uygulanmaya başlanan finansal serbestleşme politikalarının bir yansıması olarak Türk bankacılık kesiminde yabancı banka girişleri teşvik edilmiştir. Yabancı bankalara giriş izninin verilmesi ile Türkiye’de bankacılık kesiminin daha etkin, rekabetçi bir yapıya kavuşacağı ve verimliliğin artacağı beklentisi ön plana çıkmıştır. Diğer taraftan bankacılık sektöründeki ölçek ekonomilerinden yararlanabilmek için bankacılık sektörüne girişlerde büyük ölçekli firmaların teşvik edilmesi de Türkiye’de uygulanan bir diğer politikadır. Bu çerçevede sermaye yapıları güçlü uluslar arası firmaların Türk bankacılık sektörüne girmeleri desteklenmektedir. Banka kurmak, şube açmak ve/veya Türk bankalarının satın alınması biçiminde gerçekleşen yabancı banka girişleri, 1990’lı yıllarda sayısal olarak artmaya başlamış; sektörde mevduat, aktif ve kredi hacimleri 2001 krizine kadar sürekli olarak genişlemiştir. 2001 krizinin ardından bankacılık sektöründe önemli ölçüde küçülme görüldüğünden, “Bankacılık Sektörü Yeniden Yapılandırma Programı” uygulamaya konulmuş, sistemin daha sağlıklı bir yapıya kavuşturulması amaçlanmıştır. Yabancı yatırımcıların sektöre ilgilerinin artmasıyla Türk bankacılık sektöründe aktif, toplam kredi ve mevduat dağılımında yabancı bankaların ağırlığı 2002-2007 yılları arasında önemli ölçüde yükselmiştir. Ancak 2008 yılında yaşanan küresel krizin etkisiyle bankacılık sektöründe yaşanan durgunluk, yabancı banka girişlerini de olumsuz yönde etkilemiştir. Bu çerçevede çalışmada, banka davranışı ile performansı arasındaki ilişkiyi doğrudan ölçen Panzar-Rosse yönteminin yanında Boone Endeksi de kullanılarak 2008 Küresel krizin ardından Türk bankacılık sektöründe yabancı bankların sektörün etkinliği üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmeye çalışılacaktır. Bu çerçevede Panzar-Rosse analizi her bir yıl için ayrı ayrı yapılacak ve h değerleri hesap edilecektir. Hesaplanan bu h değerlerinin yabancı banka girişlerinden ne yönde etkilendiği ortaya konulmaya çalışılacaktır. Bunun yanında Boone endeksi de her bir yıl için hesaplanacak ve yabancı banka girişlerindeki değişimin endeksi ne yönde etkilediği ortaya konulmaya çalışılacaktır.
    Keywords: Yabancı bankalar, bankacılık sektörü, etkinlik, verimlilik
    JEL: G21 D43 L11
    Date: 2013
  23. By: Ekmen Özçelik, Seda (METU, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey); Erlat, Güzin (METU, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkey)
    Abstract: Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin karşı karşıya olduğu en önemli sorunlardan birisi geleneksel ihraç ürünlerine bağımlı kalmalarıdır. Oysa uluslararası piyasalarda rekabet gücü kazanmak ve ihracat gelirlerini arttırmak sadece geleneksel ürünlerin ihraç edilmesi ile değil, aynı zamanda yeni ürünlerin ihracat portföyüne eklenmesi ile mümkün olmaktadır. İhracatta çeşitlenme şu anda ihraç edilen malların paylarının artırılması (“yoğun marj”) ve yeni mallar ihraç edilmesi (“yaygın marj”) ile sağlanabilir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin AB-15 piyasasına yaptığı ihracattaki yoğun ve yaygın marjlar, 1996-2006 yılları için sayım yöntemi, Feenstra ve Kee (2007) ile Amiti ve Freund (2008) tarafından geliştirilen yöntemlerle incelenmiştir. Bu yöntemler her bir teknolojik sınıf için ayrı ayrı ele alınmış ve ayrıca Türkiye’nin konumu AB-15 piyasasına ihracat yapan en önemli 30 AB-15 dışı ülke ile de kıyaslanmıştır. Çalışmamızda genelde tüm ülkelerin ihracat büyümelerinin öncelikli olarak yaygın marjdan kaynaklandığı, ancak yoğun marjın gelişmekte olan ülkeler için gelişmiş ülkelere kıyasla daha önemli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Türkiye’nin ise özellikle araştırma-yoğun sektörlerde yeni malların üretimini ve ihracatını arttırarak AB-15 piyasasında rakiplerine karşı rekabet gücünü arttırabilmesi için önemli fırsatları olduğu ortaya çıkarılmıştır.
    Keywords: Türkiye, Avrupa Birliği, İhracat rekabet gücü, Yaygın marj, Yoğun marj
    JEL: F10 F14 F19
    Date: 2013
  24. By: Yıldırım, Zekeriya (Department of Economics, Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Turkey)
    Abstract: Bu çalışma Türkiye iş gücü piyasasının dinamiklerini küçük boyutlu bir makroekonomik modele dayalı olarak eş bütünleşme yaklaşımıyla incelemektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti istihdam, verimlilik ve reel ücretlere ilişkin çeyrek dönemlik verileri içermekte ve 1988:1- 2012:2 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Sonuçlar Türkiye iş gücü piyasasında kilit değişkenin reel ücretler olduğunu, istihdamda katılıkların bulunduğunu ve reel ücret-verimlilik bağının zayıf olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu nedenle, Türkiye iş gücü piyasasının etkinliği açısından reel ücretlerdeki esneklik oldukça önemlidir.
    Keywords: İş Gücü Piyasası, Eş Bütünleşme, SVECM
    JEL: J01 C50 E24
    Date: 2013
  25. By: Acun, Serdar (Tunceli University, Tunceli, TurkeyAuthor-Name: Güneş, Bayram; Tunceli University, Tunceli, Turkey)
    Abstract: Bu çalışmada ekonomik krizin Türkiye’de istihdam piyasasını nasıl etkilediği incelenmiştir. Öncelikli amacımız, 2007 yılında patlak veren küresel ekonomik krizin Türkiye’de özellikle 2007-2011 yılları arasında eksik istihdamı nasıl etkilediğini ortaya koymaktır.2004 yılından itibaren istihdama ilişkin bazı göstergelerde iyileşme görülen Türkiye istihdam piyasasında krizin ardından bazı yapısal değişiklikler yaşanmıştır. Özelikle işsizlik ve yarı zamanlı çalışma göstergelerinde görece hızlı sayılabilecek bir bozulma gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik bölümünde lojistik regresyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Lojistik regresyon ya da logit modeli ikili bağımlı değişken için tasarlanmış doğrusal olmayan regresyon modelidir. Çalışmada lojistik regresyon uygulamasıyla Türkiye’de eksik istihdamı nelerin belirlediği incelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Veri seti olarak 2007-2011 yılları arasında Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun hazırladığı hanehalkı iş gücü anketleri mikro veri setleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda kadınların erkeklere göre daha az eksik istihdamda olduğu, sosyal güvenliğin eksik istihdamı önleyici bir noktada durduğu, yaş ile eksik istihdam arasında ters U şeklinde ilişkinin varlığı, krizle birlikte eksik istihdamın arttığı gibi sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.
    Keywords: İstihdam, Kriz, Eksik İstihdam, Lojistik Regresyon
    JEL: J21 G01 C35
    Date: 2013
  26. By: Gamze Yıldız ŞEREN (Namık Kemal University, Department of Public Administration, Tekirdag, Turkey); Emin DEDEBEK (Namık Kemal University, Department of Public Finance, Tekirdag, Turkey)
    Abstract: Küreselleşmenin de itici gücüyle sanayileşme ve teknolojik gelişmeler doğrultusunda çevre süratle kirlenmeye, doğal kaynaklar tükenmeye başlamıştır.20.yüzyılın son çeyreğiyle beraber küresel boyutlara ulaşan çevre sorunları tüm dünyayı tehdit etmektedir. Küresel ısınma, ozon tabakasının incelmesi, sera etkisi, yağmur ormanlarının yok olması, hava ve suyun kirlenmesi gibi küreselleşen çevre sorunları, çözümleri gerekli kılmış ve ülkelerde uygulanan çevre politikalarının önemini arttırmıştır. Türkiye de bilhassa AB uyum sürecinde bir takım adımlar atmış ve çevre politikalarına yön vermiştir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada Türkiye’deki çevre politikalarının etkinliği incelenmektedir.
    Keywords: Küreselleşme, Çevre Politikaları, Çevre Kirliliği
    JEL: Q50 Q53 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2013
  27. By: Oğuz Arslan (Department of Public Finance, Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Turkey)
    Abstract: Bu çalışma Minsky’nin ‘Finansal İstikrarsızlık Hipotezi’ne dayalı olarak kamu kesiminde finansal istikrarsızlığın ölçülmesini ele almaktadır. Bu çerçevede, 2000-2011 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde Türk kamu kesiminde Minskiyen anlamda bir finansal istikrarsızlığın var olup olmadığı araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla hem dar anlamda hem de geniş anlamda kamu kesimi için iki ayrı ‘Finansal İstikrarsızlık Endeksi’ oluşturulmuştur. Her iki endeks de, ele alınan dönemde Türk kamu kesiminin sürekli olarak ‘spekülatif’ finansman durumunda kaldığını ve hatta 2000/2001 Ekonomik Krizi ve 2008-2009 Küresel Finansal Krizi yıllarında ‘Ponzi’ finansman durumuna çok yaklaştığını açık bir biçimde ortaya koymaktadır.
    Keywords: Finansal İstikrarsızlık Hipotezi, Kamu Kesimi, Kamu Kesimi Ekonomisi
    JEL: E12 H10 H60
    Date: 2013

This nep-ara issue is ©2014 by Paul Makdissi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.