nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒08‒20
seventeen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d’Ottawa

  1. Re-examining Turkey's trade deficit with structural breaks: Evidence from 1989-2011 By Erten, Irem; Okay, Nesrin
  2. Panel analysis of CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization for MENA countries By Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz; Mohamed Arouri
  3. What role of renewable and nonrenewable electricity consumption and output is needed to initially mitigate CO2 emissions in MENA region? By Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz
  4. Institutional Environment, Economic Performance and Innovation in Turkey By Erkan Erdil; M. Teoman Pamukçu; Dilek Çetin
  5. Population with immigration: Turkey and the EU. Does a young population remedy to the aged? By Özdemir, Durmuş; Rosch, Angi
  6. Can Income Mobility Reduce Income Inequality? Evidence From Turkey By Aytekin Guven; Basak Dalgic; Aysit Tansel
  7. Poverty and Inequality in the Non-Income Multidimensional Space: A Critical Review in the Arab States By Abdel-Hameed Nawar
  8. Turkey Assessment Report 2012 By OECD
  9. Jordan: 2014 Article IV Consultation, Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criterion - Staff Report; Press Releases; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  10. Return and volatility transmission between oil prices and oil-exporting and oil-importing countries By Khaled Guesmi; Salma Fattoum
  11. How does management perceive export success? An empirical study of Moroccan SMEs By Hind El Makrini
  12. Algeria: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  13. Qatar: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Qatar By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  14. Sudan: Staff Monitored Program-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sudan By International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
  15. Pesticide safety risk, food chain organization, and the adoption of sustainable farming practices. The case of Moroccan early tomatoes By Magali Aubert; Zouhair Bouhsina; Jean Marie Codron; Sylvain Rousset
  16. Analyse des effets des pratiques managériales sur la performance à l’export. Etude empirique des PME marocaines By Abdallah Alaoui; Hind El Makrini
  17. La sécurité alimentaire dans les pays du sud de la Méditerranée : enjeux et perspectives [introduction] By Jean-Louis Rastoin

  1. By: Erten, Irem; Okay, Nesrin
    Abstract: The goal of this paper is to examine the sustainability of the trade deficit of Turkey with cointegration techniques allowing for structural breaks. We follow Husted (1992) model, which shows that if a country’s exports and imports are cointegrated, and if the cointegrating vector is (1,-1), then its trade deficit is sustainable. First, classical cointegration tests indicate that exports and imports are cointegrated, but the cointegrating vector significantly differs from (1,-1). Next, the existence of cointegration is confirmed with an alternative method proposed by Silvestre and Sanso (2006) controlling for structural breaks. Our analysis detects two breaks in the cointegration relationship on 2001:01, and 2008:09, coinciding with economic crises. We show that since 2001, Turkish trade deficit has not been sustainable in the strong form, and after 2008, the country has moved away from sustainability. Based on our analysis, the sustainability of Turkey’s widening trade deficit is highly doubtful.
    Keywords: Exports, Imports, Trade Deficit, Sustainability, Cointegration, Structural Breaks
    JEL: C22 E6 G14 G15
    Date: 2012–10
  2. By: Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz; Mohamed Arouri
    Abstract: This paper empirically parallels two approaches: The first one follows the studies of Halicioglu (2009), Jalil and Mahmud (2009), and Jayanthakumaran et al. (2012) which attempt to introduce energy consumption and trade into the environmental function (related carbon dioxide ‘CO2’ emissions to Gross Domestic Product ‘GDP’); whereas the second approach extends the single work of Hossain (2011) which attempts to introduce urbanization as a means to circumvent omitted variable bias. For 11 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1980-2009, the empirical results appear to be relevant in light of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) literature based on the cointegrated and causal relationship. Policy implications indicate that: i) more energy use, higher GDP and greater trade openness tend to cause more CO2 emissions; ii) the inclusion of urbanization in the environmental function improves the final results and positively affects the pollution level; and iii) MENA countries should search the best policy which can stabilize the rise of growth GDP and trade openness, and which can also control the continuous increase in the use of energy.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) literature, Panel data analysis, Middle East and North African (MENA) countries
    Date: 2014–07–24
  3. By: Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz
    Abstract: This study attempts to explore the causal relationship between renewable and nonrenewable electricity consumption, output and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 10 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period of 1980–2009. The results from panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimates show that renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption add in CO2 emissions while output (real Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita) exhibits the inverted U-shaped relationship with CO2 emissions, i.e. environment Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is validated. The short-run dynamics indicate unidirectional causality running from renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption and output to CO2 emissions. In the long-run, there appears to be bidirectional causality between electricity consumption (renewable and non-renewable) and CO2 emissions. The findings suggest that future reductions in CO2 emissions might be achieved at the cost of economic growth.
    Keywords: Electricity consumption; Output; CO2 emissions; MENA region.
    Date: 2014–07–24
  4. By: Erkan Erdil (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University); M. Teoman Pamukçu (TEKPOL, Science and Technology Policy Studies, Middle East Technical University); Dilek Çetin (Department of Economics, Kırıkkale University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between economic performance and innovation in Turkey, while also taking into account the crucial mediating effect of the institutional environment. We carry out an in-depth analysis of the recent shifts in STI policy making in Turkey. The emphasis is on the innovation support policy instruments, and their effectiveness, as well as on the formulation of national STI targets, sector priorities and targets in the field of human resources. A number of concerns are expressed for the effectiveness of policy instruments and for the attainability of national STI targets. In the second part using firm-level data from an innovation survey pertaining to 2008-2010, an econometric exercise is conducted in order to test for the effectiveness of innovation support in Turkey. Innovation support is treated alternatively as an exogenous and endogenous variable. Findings indicate a positive impact innovation support in general. Innovation support granted by local authorities is not effective while EU-funded projects lead to innovation although they constitute an extremely low share of total innovation supports.
    Keywords: Institutional Environment, Science, Technology, Innovation, Economic Performance, CDM Model, Turkey
    Date: 2013–12
  5. By: Özdemir, Durmuş; Rosch, Angi
    Abstract: Annual population growth rate in Turkey is as high as 1.1 per cent, while many EU countries have shrinking, and hence ageing, populations. In this paper we consider an age-structured population that consists of female natives and Turkish immigrants into the EU. Immigrants’ fertility and mortality schedule may differ from that of EU natives, their children may adopt it. We apply a discrete-time Leslie-type model which allows for immigration and the study of its long-run effects. We examine the contribution of EU natives and Turkish immigrants to the EU population in terms of age-specific reproductive values which measure the value of one female of a given age as a seed for future population growth. Genealogies are derived in terms of the realisations of a corresponding Markov chain running backward in time.
    Keywords: Turkey and the EU; ageing populations; immigration; stochastic demography; stable populations; discrete-time Leslie-type model; age-specific reproductive values; Markov chain; genealogy
    JEL: J11 J15
    Date: 2005–05–09
  6. By: Aytekin Guven (Department of Economics, Abant İzzet Baysal University); Basak Dalgic (Department of Public Finance, Hacettepe University); Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany and Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt)
    Abstract: Increasing income inequality has made economists focus on income mobility issue which enables individuals to relocate their income position up to higher income groups. Income mobility and its effects on inequalities have begun to be investigated following 2000s and rather for developed countries while there are only a limited number of studies to reach a general conclusion regarding the issue. This study aims to contribute to the literature by analyzing income inequality and income mobility together for a developing country Turkey which is one of the countries having most unequal income distributions. The results of this study can be summarized as follows; i) income mobility increases over time but this mobility raises income inequality instead of reducing it. ii) the individuals at the two tails of the distribution are more mobile with respect to the ones in the middle. iii) 30 percent of the individuals at the lowest income group become unemployed while only 1.5 percent of them move up to the highest income group in the considering sub-periods.
    Keywords: Income Mobility, Income Inequality, Turkey.
    JEL: D31 D63 J60
    Date: 2014–07
  7. By: Abdel-Hameed Nawar (Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University)
    Abstract: Poverty and Inequality in the Non-Income Multidimensional Space: A Critical Review in the Arab States
    Keywords: Poverty and Inequality in the Non-Income Multidimensional Space: A Critical Review in the Arab States
    Date: 2014–03
  8. By: OECD
    Abstract: Each year SIGMA produces assessment reports as a contribution to the EC’s annual reports on EU candidate countries and potential candidates, as well as to its programming of technical assistance. These reports assess progress made in public administration reform by our beneficiary countries. The report for Turkey analyses and takes stock of progress achieved by this country in 2012, with an aim to also provide inputs into its reform agenda. It focuses on civil service and administrative law, integrity, public expenditure management and control, and public procurement.
    Date: 2012–10–12
  9. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: Jordan is grappling with strong headwinds. It is facing a political transition even while the Syria crisis is stretching Jordan’s social fabrics. At the same time, gas inflows from Egypt continue to fluctuate, putting pressure on both the external and fiscal accounts.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Fiscal consolidation;Energy sector;Fiscal reforms;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Stand-by arrangement reviews;Staff Reports;Press releases;Performance criteria waivers;Jordan;
    Date: 2014–06–09
  10. By: Khaled Guesmi; Salma Fattoum
    Abstract: This paper provides further evidence of the comovements and dynamic volatility spillovers between stock markets and oil prices for a sample of four oil-exporting countries (United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela). We make use of a multivariate GJR-DCCGARCH approach developed by Glosten et al. (1993). The results show that cross-market comovements as measured by conditional correlation coefficients increase positively in response to significant aggregate demand (precautionary demand) and oil price shocks due to global business cycle fluctuations or world turmoil and oil prices exhibit positive correlation with stock markets.
    Keywords: oil prices, oil-exporting countries, conditional correlations, DCC-GARCH model.
    JEL: Q43 E44 G15 C1
    Date: 2014–07–24
  11. By: Hind El Makrini
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the managerial determinants of the export
    Keywords: Export success, Managerial determinants, Morocco, SMEs, RBV, Multiple regression analysis
    Date: 2014–07–24
  12. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Algeria’s economic performance in 2013 has been satisfactory. Inflation, which reached 8.9 percent last year, has decelerated significantly in 2013 thanks to fiscal consolidation and prudent monetary policy. Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.7 percent in 2013 from 3.3 percent in 2012, reflecting a continued decline in hydrocarbon sector output and lower public spending. The current account surplus is expected to narrow to 1.1 percent of GDP in 2013, as robust domestic hydrocarbon consumption, together with declining prices, weighs on hydrocarbon exports and import growth remains sizeable.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Hydrocarbons;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Real effective exchange rates;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Algeria;
    Date: 2014–02–04
  13. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Qatar’s macroeconomic performance has remained strong. GDP growth slowed from 13 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2012, mostly owing to the self-imposed moratorium on additional hydrocarbon production from the North Field. Growth was 6.5 percent in 2013, driven by strong expansion in the nonhydrocarbon sector. The negative spillovers from sluggish global growth and financial market volatility have been limited. The baseline macroeconomic outlook is positive. GDP growth could stay at about 6 percent in 2014, with public investments keeping growth at about 6–7 percent over the medium term.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Hydrocarbons;Fiscal policy;Public investment;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Exchange rate assessments;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Qatar;Housing prices;
    Date: 2014–05–06
  14. By: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
    Abstract: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: Sudan is a fragile state mired in a heavy debt burden, international sanctions, and volatile domestic and regional political environments. These problems, together with limited revenue mobilization, are constraining Sudan’s growth prospects and poverty reduction efforts. The economic situation worsened following the secession of South Sudan in 2011, resulting in the buildup of large economic imbalances. The authorities have embarked on a stabilization program and are expecting that a return of peace in South Sudan will ensure continuation of oil flows, which are crucial for sustaining the government renewed adjustment process resumed last September. Focus of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP): In the attached Letter of Intent, dated March 7, 2014, the authorities requested a new SMP covering the period January– December, 2014. The objective of the SMP is to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen social safety nets, and develop the required reforms to refocus the economy on its non- resource sector and lay the groundwork for sustainable economic growth. Risks to the SMP: Risks are mainly tilted to the downside. The social unrest that followed the announcement of the policy measures in September 2013 has abated, but the situation remains fragile. Security conditions remain volatile in several parts of the country, and the current standoff in South Sudan may hinder the flow of oil to Port Sudan. Furthermore, the forthcoming presidential elections in 2015 is already fueling political uncertainty, and complicating the economic policy-making process. Policy recommendations: The main recommendations from the 2013 Article IV consultation were: (i) a fiscal adjustment in the context of the 2014 budget framed in a medium-term strategy, including a gradual phasing-out of fuel subsidies, and a strengthening of social safety nets; (ii) a tighter monetary stance to contain inflation and lessen exchange rate pressures; (iii) further exchange rate flexibility to improve external competitiveness; and (iv) improvement of the business environment to boost private sector- led growth. Debt relief prospects: Relief is predicated on reaching out to creditors, normalizing relations with international financial institutions, and establishing a track record of cooperation with the IMF on policies and payments. Arrears to the Fund: Sudan has been in arrears to the Fund since July 1984. As of end- February 2014, those arrears amounted to SDR 981.5 million.
    Keywords: Staff-monitored programs;Regional shocks;South Sudan;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Exchange rate policy;Bank restructuring;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Letters of Intent;Press releases;Sudan;
    Date: 2014–07–15
  15. By: Magali Aubert (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA); Zouhair Bouhsina (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA); Jean Marie Codron (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA); Sylvain Rousset (UR ADBX, Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture)
    Abstract: Fresh produce pesticide safety risk has grown into a major concern of North European consumers and governments for the last twenty years. Our study expands on safety control issues and gives insights into how fresh vegetable chains organize to comply with retail private safety standards and thus get access to export and modern domestic markets. Most studies on the adoption of good agricultural practice certifications and integrated pest management overlook the influence of food chain organization. Building on Transaction Cost Economics, our paper aims to fill this gap by studying the influence of vertical linkages, more precisely the incentives and managerial procedures crafted by packing stations in order to control farmers'behavior and manage the pesticide safety risk. Two surveys have been conducted to that purpose in the Moroccan SoussMassa-Drâa region. Our first survey of thirty tomato packers provides only mixed results about our first hypothesis: that the more the supply chain is integrated (from contracted growers to full ownership) the more the control of pesticide safety risk is achieved through direct supervision rather than outcome-based incentives. Our second survey of 86 producers confirms that integrated chains are more efficient in safeguarding specific investments in safety management, which results in greater diffusion of biocontrol and good agricultural practice certification within the greenhouses that are owned by private packers rather than independent farmers.
    Abstract: La sécurité sanitaire pour les fruits et légumes frais est depuis une vingtaine d’années une préoccupation majeure pour les consommateurs et les gouvernements, notamment ceux du Nord de l’Europe. Notre étude s’intéresse au contrôle de la sécurité sanitaire pour les filières de légumes frais. Elle précise notamment comment s’organisent ces filières pour se conformer aux standards privés de la grande distribution et ainsi pouvoir accéder aux marchés d’exportation et aux marchés nationaux dits modernes. La plupart des travaux traitant de l’adoption de référentiels certifiés de bonnes pratiques agricoles ou de techniques de protection intégrée ne prennent pas en compte l’organisation de la filière et les interactions entre les acteurs de cette filière. Pour pallier ce manque, l’article analyse l’influence des relations verticales en se basant sur la Théorie des Coûts de Transaction. Plus précisément, on considère les incitations et les procédures de gestion mises en Å“uvre par les stations de conditionnement pour contrôler les producteurs et gérer le risque lié aux pesticides. Deux enquêtes ont été réalisées dans la région du Souss-Massa-Drâa au Maroc. La première considère trente stations spécialisées en tomate. Elle fournit des résultats contrastés quant à l’hypothèse selon laquelle, plus la filière est intégrée et plus le contrôle est réalisé à travers une supervision directe, et moins à travers la mise en Å“uvre d’un système incitatif. La seconde enquête considère 86 producteurs. Elle confirme que les filières les plus intégrées sont les plus efficaces en termes de protection des investissements spécifiques dans la production raisonnée. L’adoption de la lutte biologique et des référentiels de bonnes pratiques agricoles est ainsi plus importante lorsque les serres sont détenues par des stations privées, plutôt que par des producteurs indépendants des stations.
    Keywords: food safety, pesticides, integrated pest management, IPM, good agricultural practices, gap, transaction costs, vertical organization, fresh vegetables, sécurité sanitaire, norme, protection intégréefruit, legume frais, produit frais, intégration verticale, filière fruits et légumes, tomatepesticidecoût de transactionmaroc
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Abdallah Alaoui; Hind El Makrini
    Abstract: Moroccan’s trade deficit has worsened the last ten years. Actually, it stands at 42,3 billion dirhams. The aim of this study is to examine that export performance of Moroccan SMEs depend mainly on the managerial practices of their managers, more than the exogenous factors. Morocco is an illustrative case of a developing country where managerial determinants seem to influence significantly export performance of SMEs. Based on a qualimetric study, we analyze this relationship involving a questionnaire completed by 100 managers. The findings identify strategy, intelligence, communication and export commitment as the significant determinants of export performance. This study has interesting implications for practitioners, public policymakers and scholars alike. The research can also be used in teaching.
    Keywords: Managerial practices, Competitiveness, Export performance, Moroccan SMEs
    Date: 2014–07–24
  17. By: Jean-Louis Rastoin (Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs, INRA; Montpellier SupAgro - Centre International d'Etudes Supérieures en Sciences Agronomiques; Chaire Unesco « Alimentations du monde », United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization)
    Abstract: Les pays du Maghreb et l’Égypte affichent une dépendance croissante des marchés extérieurs pour leur alimentation, en particulier en céréales et oléoprotéagineux qui constituent la base de leur diète. L’Algérie et l’Égypte figurent ainsi parmi les tout premiers importateurs mondiaux de blé. Cette dépendance creuse les déficits publics tant au niveau de la balance commerciale que des budgets gouvernementaux, du fait de l’existence de caisses de compensation destinées à maintenir le prix des aliments compatibles avec les revenus des classes populaires. On observe par ailleurs dans les dernières décennies une faible progression de la production en grandes cultures et des difficultés d’organisation des filières. Les récentes révolutions dans la zone (Tunisie, Égypte, Libye, Syrie) ont par ailleurs pointé la question lancinante du sous-développement rural. Les perspectives d’avenir sont handicapées par la montée de nouvelles contraintes : épuisement des ressources en eau, dégradation des sols, pression foncière accrue, chômage de masse, disparition de la diète méditerranéenne favorisant une progression inquiétante des maladies non transmissibles d’origine alimentaire, changement climatique, etc. Dans ce contexte, l’enjeu d’une sécurité alimentaire durable devient central et invite à définir de nouvelles politiques alimentaire et agricole.
    Keywords: sécurité alimentaire, alimentation humainerégion méditerranéenne, maghreb, egypte
    Date: 2013

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