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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Mustafa Kilinc; Cengiz Tunc |
| Abstract: | This paper tries to identify the monetary policy shocks in Turkey during the explicit inflation targeting period starting from 2006 using a structural VAR approach. We model Turkey as a small open economy where domestic variables are affected by external factors like commodity prices and global demand but domestic variables do not affect external variables. We analyze the effects of four shocks on Turkish economy: two domestic shocks of interest rates and risk premium, and two external shocks of commodity prices and global demand. All shocks are found to have significant effects on main economic variables. Positive interest rate shocks appreciate the domestic currency and decrease the inflation whereas positive risk premium shocks cause a depreciation and an increase in inflation. Both of these shocks also cause a decrease in the domestic activity. Being an open and internationally integrated economy, Turkey is significantly affected by global shocks. A positive global demand innovation leads to an increase in global commodity prices, which together increase both the level of prices and economic activity in Turkey. Positive commodity price shocks also increase the inflation in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, Risk Premium, Small Open Economy |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1423&r=ara |
| By: | Kan, Elif Oznur; Tansel, Aysit |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how informality can be defined and measured in the Turkish labor market. Two alternative definitions of informality are used to explore their relevance and implications for the Turkish labor market using descriptive statistics. They are the enterprise definition and the social security definition. Further, contributions of individual and job characteristics to the likelihood of informality are investigated using multivariate probit analysis under the two definitions. The social security registration criterion is found to be a better measure of informality in the Turkish labor market given its ability to capture the key relationships between several individual and employment characteristics and the likelihood of informality.The study suggests that preference should be given to social security definition of labor informality for a more accurate depiction of the Turkish labor market. The suitability of the two alternative definitions of informality in the Turkish labor market and its implications have not been investigated before. |
| Keywords: | Informality, Definition, Measurement and Likelihood, Turkey |
| JEL: | J2 J24 |
| Date: | 2014–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57739&r=ara |
| By: | Selen Baser Andic; Hande Kucuk; Fethi Ogunc |
| Abstract: | We provide Bayesian estimates of an empirical model of consumer price inflation for Turkey based on the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve. We decompose real marginal costs into domestic and foreign components and focus particularly on identifying the effect of the domestic component. We find that the baseline model which uses output gap as a measure of domestic real marginal costs does a better job in explaining consumer price inflation compared to alternative models which incorporate real unit labor costs. On the other hand, estimations for services inflation point to the importance of real unit labor costs for this sector. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Real marginal costs, Phillips Curve, Turkey |
| JEL: | E12 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1420&r=ara |
| By: | Koray Alper; Mahir Binici; Selva Demiralp; Hakan Kara; Pinar Ozlu |
| Abstract: | Many central banks in emerging economies have used reserve requirements (RR) to alleviate the trade-off between financial stability and price stability in recent years. Notwithstanding their widespread use, transmission channels of RR have remained largely as a black-box. In this paper, we use bank-level data to explore the interaction between RR and bank lending behavior. Our empirical findings suggest that short-term borrowing from the central bank is not a close substitute for deposits for banks. Bank lending behavior responds significantly to reserve requirements and liquidity positions. Our analysis allows us to identify a new channel that we name as the “liquidity channel”. The channel works through a decline in bank liquidity and loan supply due to an increase in reserve requirements. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Transmission Mechanism; Liquidity Risk; Bank Lending Channel; Turkey |
| JEL: | E44 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1424&r=ara |
| By: | Becherair, Amrane |
| Abstract: | This paper will investigate the impact of institution on economic growth rates in MENA nations, Using panel data model over the period 1995-2012. Within the framework of the neoclassical growth model, this study integrates a broad set of institutional variables such. Security of property rights, governance, political freedom and size of government are the indicators used in the study, facilitating identification of the most important institutions that account for the observed variations in economic growth rates among nations. We find that, The sign and significance of all of the variables are qualitatively similar to the results obtained by MRW (1992). We also find The human capital is highly significant at 99% with initial income and Investment Share in MENA countries. The Results indicate that the dummy variable for oil exporters is positive and significant, indicating that other things being equal, oil exporters would be expected to have higher economic growth rates in MENA Countries. Basic OLS results, as well as a variety of additional evidence, suggest that (a) security of property rights, is the most significant institutions that explain the variations in economic growth rates, (b) The significant and negative sign on the government consumption, indicating that smaller governments are "better" in MENA countries. |
| Keywords: | MENA Countries – Economic Growth – Institutions- Panel Data Model |
| JEL: | C23 C87 O4 O43 O53 O55 |
| Date: | 2014–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57683&r=ara |
| By: | Jellal, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to model theoretically the fundamental links between financial development, foreign direct investment and economic development. In particular, we show that the entry of foreign capital flows can support an endogenous economic growth path of the host country. Indeed, we give the micro-foundations of the simple model of endogenous growth of Pagano (1993), which allowed us to analyze the impact of a constellation of key elements for economic growth. Among these elements, we identified the importance of the size of the financial sector, modernization and quality of education, diaspora network, quality of institutions and economic diplomacy in stimulating economic growth. Our main theoretical predictions are of great importance for the Arab countries that are currently undergoing political and economic transition |
| Keywords: | Financial Development, Foreign Capital, Diaspora, Institution, Quality of Education, Economic Diplomacy, Industrialization, Endogenous Growth, Mena. |
| JEL: | F1 F2 F21 F22 F23 F24 F43 O1 O4 O43 |
| Date: | 2014–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57738&r=ara |
| By: | M. Faruk Aydin; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Ufuk Demiroglu |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye’nin 1994-2012 donemindeki ikili ticaret verilerine dayanarak, ihracatin ithalati karsilama oraninin ticaret ortaklarinin kuruna ve Gayri Safi Yurt Ici Hasilasina olan duyarliligi arastirilmistir. Ticaret ortaklarinin Gayri Safi Yurt Ici Hasilasindaki yuzde 1’lik bir buyumeye karsilik Turkiye’nin karsilama oraninda yuzde 1,6-1,7 oraninda bir artis gozlenmektedir. Ticaret ortaklarinin reel (efektif) kurlarinin yuzde 1 oraninda degerlenmesi ise Turkiye’nin karsilama oranlarinda yuzde 0,94-1,45 oraninda bir artisa karsilik gelmektedir. [EN] Using Turkey’s bilateral trade data from the 1994-2012 period, this note investigates the sensitivity of the export/import coverage ratio to trading partner exchange rate and Gross Domestic Product. Empirical findings indicate that a 1 percent growth in trading partners’ Gross Domestic Product is associated with a 1.6-1.7 percent increase in the coverage ratio, while 1 percent appreciation in trading partner’s real exchange rate is associated with 0.94-1.45 percent increase in the coverage ratio. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1408&r=ara |
| By: | Tuba Ozsevinc; Erdal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Vergi gelirlerinin oynakliginin dusuk olmasi, butce planlarini kolaylastirici bir role sahiptir. Bu calismada, degisim katsayisi ve vergi geliri istikrar katsayisi kullanilarak, Turkiye’de vergi gelirlerinin istikrarli olup olmadigi ortaya koyulmaya calisilmistir. Bu nedenle, 2007-2013 yillarina ait vergi gelirleri ele alinmistir. Calismanin sonuclari, Turkiye’de goreli en istikrarli vergi gelirinin, dolaysiz vergilerin en onemli bileseni olan gelir ve kazanc uzerinden alinan vergiler oldugunu; goreli en fazla oynakliga sahip vergi gelirinin ise vergi geliri bilesenlerinin ithalden alinan katma deger vergisi, harclar ve damga vergisi oldugunu gostermistir. [EN] Stability of tax revenues may make it easier for the governments to make budgetary plans and to estimate budget balances for the future. In this study, using coefficient of variation and revenue stabilizing coefficient and tax revenues data for 2007-2013, we try to analyse the stability of tax revenues by sub-items. Results reveal that while relatively stable components of tax revenue are taxes on income, profits and capital gains under direct tax, relatively less stable tax revenues are taxes on international trade and transactions, stamp duties and fees. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1409&r=ara |