nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒07‒21
six papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
Université d'Ottawa

  1. Skill Mismatch and Migration in Egypt and Tunisia By Nordman, Christophe Jalil; David, Anda Mariana
  2. Modeling Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in Arab Countries: Cointegration and Causality Analysis By Shahateet, Mohammed
  3. Determinants of Tax Morale in Spain and Turkey: An Empirical Analysis By Bilgin, Cevat
  4. Rationalizing the Value Premium in Emerging Markets By M. Shahid Embrahim; Sourafel Girma; M. Eskander Shah; Jonathan Williams
  5. The increasing interest of Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds for Europe: presenting original data By Françoise Hay; Christian Milelli
  6. العوامل المؤثرة على سعر السهم السوقي في بورصة عمّان خلال الفترة 1984-2011 By Al-Habashneh, Fedel; Shhateet, Mohammad; AL-Bdore, Jaber; Amareen, Zainah

  1. By: Nordman, Christophe Jalil; David, Anda Mariana
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to shed light on the issue of skill mismatch in the context of return migration in Egypt and Tunisia. Using data on both return and potential migrants in Egypt and Tunisia, we analyze the skills that migrants acquire before and during migration and the way these skills are used upon return. We find evidence of skill mismatch, especially in Tunisia. The undereducation phenomenon is more prevalent among return migrants, indicating that they make up for their lower education using their migration experience. Finally, we estimate the determinants of skill mismatch on the Egyptian and Tunisian labour markets and find a significant negative effect of return migration on the probability of being undereducated.
    Keywords: Migration de retour; inadéquation des qualifications; marché du travail; éducation; Tunisie; Egypte; Return migration; skill mismatch; labor market; education; Tunisia; Egypt;
    JEL: J24 F22 O15 I25
    Date: 2014–04
  2. By: Shahateet, Mohammed
    Abstract: ABSTRACT: This paper examines the relationship between energy consumption and real economic growth in 17 Arab countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. It uses an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to determine this econometric relationship using data during 1980-2011. After testing for unit root and cointegration, it identifies Granger causality between energy consumption and real economic growth. The analysis allowed for the verification of the four hypotheses that have been discussed widely in economic literature: Neutrality, Conservation, Growth, and Feedback hypotheses. Empirical findings support neutrality hypothesis in 16 out of 17 Arab countries. These findings, of no causality from economic growth to energy consumption and the other way round, imply that energy conservation will not have a significant impact on economic growth and economic growth will have insignificant effect on changes in energy consumption. They also suggest including other more important variables in the determination of economic growth, such as labor and capital.
    Keywords: economic growth; energy consumption; ARDL model; Granger causality; Arab countries
    JEL: C33 O13 O47 Q43
    Date: 2014–07
  3. By: Bilgin, Cevat
    Abstract: Tax morale is defined as the intrinsic motivation to pay taxes, and is closely related to tax compliance. Determinants of tax morale need to be investigated for a more comprehensive understanding of tax compliance. In this paper, determinants of tax morale in Turkey and Spain are analysed on the basis of World Values Survey data. Firstly, descriptive statistics of the variables used in the models are provided. Since tax morale is an ordered categorical dependent variable, ordered probit models are estimated separately for Turkey and Spain to derive the relations between tax morale and relevant variables. Marginal effects are computed since the coefficients of the models cannot be interpreted because of the nonlinearity of the estimated models. The marginal effects related to the top level of tax morale category are presented. The independent variables are combined by demographic factors, employment categories, economic status of the respondents and social capital variables. The findings from the estimated model suggest that social capital variables and some of the demographic factors have important effects on tax morale in Turkey. Confidence variables have positive effects; if taxpayers feel confidence in political entities they are willing to pay taxes. Religion and national pride affect tax morale positively. On the other hand, the results are different for Spain; social capital variables do not have effects on tax morale. Specifically, confidence variables are found to be statistically insignificant. Age, education level and the income level have significant effects on tax morale in Spain.
    Keywords: Tax morale; tax evasion; ordered probit.
    JEL: C51 C52 H26 H30
    Date: 2014
  4. By: M. Shahid Embrahim (Bangor University, UK); Sourafel Girma (University of Nottingham); M. Eskander Shah (International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance); Jonathan Williams (Bangor University, UK)
    Abstract: We reconfirm the presence of value premium in emerging markets. Using the Brazil-Turkey-India-China (BTIC) grouping during a period of substantial economic growth and stock market development, we attribute the premium to the investment patterns of glamour firms. We conjecture based on empirical evidence that glamour firms hoard cash, which delays undertaking of growth options, especially in poor economic conditions. Whilst this helps to mitigate business risk, it lowers market valuations and drives down expected returns. Our evidence supports arguments that the value premium is explained by economic fundamentals rather than a risk factor that is common to all firms.
    Keywords: Asset Pricing, Growth (i.e., Glamour) Stocks, Multifactor Models, Real Options, Value (i.e., Unspectacular) Stocks.
    JEL: G11 G12
    Date: 2013–09
  5. By: Françoise Hay; Christian Milelli
    Abstract: The paper examines the rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) as a new source of financing investment worldwide and, more specifically, tries to get a better understanding of SWFs from Middle East which accounted in 2013 for 35 percent of overall assets managed by them, with the bulk of them focused on Developed countries, and in particular on Europe. The paper is descriptive and informative. It is based on an original database set up from different sources of information. The idea is to advance the main characteristics of these new investors, and also to assess the primary consequences of their operations on European economies. The role of the states as important arbiters of market economies is emphasized as well as the shift of power in favor of the emerging economies.
    Keywords: Sovereign Wealth Fund, Middle East, Europe
    JEL: F21 G23
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Al-Habashneh, Fedel; Shhateet, Mohammad; AL-Bdore, Jaber; Amareen, Zainah
    Abstract: This study aimed to identify the factors influencing the share price in the Amman Stock Exchange, during the period 1984-2011. The study used a descriptive approach of analytical and quantitative standard, this effect was measured using a standard model for the integration of the joint study of the relationships between the relevant economic variables. Also been applied to test the causality test and analysis of variance components as well as the response function to test the reaction to achieve their goals. The study found that there are three variables affect positively on the rate of stock prices of companies, namely: dividends and trading volume in the market, and earnings per share.
    Keywords: Stock prices of companies, co-integration model,causality test , variance decomposition, Jordan
    JEL: G1 G15 G2
    Date: 2014–02

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