|
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University); Karaoglan, Deniz (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This is the first study which provides empirical analysis of the variation in health behaviors for adult men and women in Turkey which is a developing country. The health behaviors considered are smoking, drinking, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercise and body mass index (BMI). We find that in Turkey education is the most important factor that affects the health behaviors. The results indicate that smoking is positively associated with education at all levels with a decreasing effect with the level of education unlike in the developed countries. This result indicates that smoking is a serious public health problem in Turkey at all levels of education. Further, alcohol consumption and schooling are positively related and it increases by the level of education. Higher educated individuals clearly eat more fruits, vegetables and exercise more and their BMI levels are in the normal range compared to less educated and illiterate. We also highlight the importance of demographic factors, labor market status and household income. We use Health Survey of Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) for years 2008, 2010 and 2012. This study will provide a baseline for further studies on the various aspects of health behaviors in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | health behaviors, education, demographic factors, Turkey |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8262&r=ara |
| By: | Hela Miniaoui; Hameedah Sayani; Anissa Chaibi |
| Abstract: | We study performance of Islamic and conventional indices of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the wake of financial crisis of 2008 and test whether Islamic indices were less risky than conventional indices. We make use of data of the six GCC markets as well as the Dow Jones Islamic Market Index GCC. The mean and variance of each of the indices are analyzed based on augmented GARCH models. The results show that the financial crisis impacted on the mean returns of Bahrain, the other indices remained unaffected. The financial crisis, however, impacted volatility in three GCC markets (Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE), while the impact on the remaining markets (Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar) and the Islamic index was insignificant. More interestingly, we show that the Islamic index did not exhibit lower volatility than its conventional counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Investment, Financial crisis, GARCH models, GCC markets. |
| JEL: | G11 G15 G24 |
| Date: | 2014–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-401&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy;Subsidies;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Inflation;Sovereign wealth funds;Selected issues;Iran; |
| Date: | 2014–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/94&r=ara |
| By: | Jean-Michel Sahut; Mehdi Mili |
| Date: | 2014–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-349&r=ara |
| By: | Simon Gray; Philippe D Karam; Rima Turk Ariss |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether low loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios and high levels of reserve balances at the central bank (or holdings of government securities) are a reflection of policy-driven factors compared to commonly cited reasons of reluctance to lend or sometimes weak investment demand in uncertain environments. We examine changes to central bank (CB) balance sheet structures as well as commercial banks’ flow of funds over the period 2007–2012. First, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) CBs play an active role in view of their size that is very large with respect to their economies compared to CBs in advanced economies. Second, under exchange rate targeting, most MENA CB balance sheets are asset-driven, holding foreign exchange (FX) reserves to support the exchange rate policy and resulting in lower loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios in the case of unsterilized increases in FX. Third, CB policy decisions seem to be accompanied by an increase in commercial bank reserve money balances, with ensuing reduction in the LTD. Finally, if governments meet their financing needs from the banking system—whether from commercial banks or by monetary financing—commercial bank balance sheets will tend to expand, resulting in lower LTD ratios. Our analysis suggests that government and CB actions may also drive the demand for and supply of credit, which are traditionally attributed to the behavior of banks and non-financial corporates and households only. The findings offer a different interpretation of changes in CB and banks’ balance sheets, with direct implications for LTD, calling to exercise caution in recommending policy action which aim at propping up LTD to ‘appropriate’ levels in an effort to reinvigorate credit following a downturn. |
| Keywords: | Central banks;Middle East;North Africa;Financial intermediation;Commercial banks;Foreign exchange reserves;Bank credit;Credit demand;MENA, central banks, banks, and credit. |
| Date: | 2014–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/86&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Public investment;Banking sector;Credit risk;Stress testing;Selected issues;Qatar; |
| Date: | 2014–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/109&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Executive Board approved in August 2012 a two-year precautionary and liquidity line (PLL) arrangement in the amount of SDR 4.1 billion (700 percent of quota). The PLL provides insurance against external risks while supporting the authorities’ program aimed at reducing fiscal and external vulnerabilities and fostering higher and more inclusive growth. The second review was completed on July 31, 2013. The authorities have treated the PLL as precautionary. Overall, macroeconomic performance improved in 2013, but the outlook hinges on the sustained delivery of reforms. After a difficult 2012, a return to a more favorable environment and policy action helped reduce fiscal and external imbalances in 2013, while growth picked up, boosted by a strong rebound in the primary sector. Growth in 2014 could reach about 4 percent, but the economy remains vulnerable to a fragile international environment. Continued improvement in economic conditions depends on the sustained implementation of reforms to further reduce vulnerabilities, strengthen competitiveness, and foster stronger and more inclusive growth. The program remains broadly on track, and Morocco continues to meet the PLL qualification criteria. Both the fiscal and external deficits were reduced from their 2012 highs. Although the fiscal deficit indicative target at end-October was missed, the authorities’ end-year objective was met. The NIR indicative target at end-October was met with a comfortable margin. Morocco continues to perform strongly in three out of the five areas in which PLL qualification is assessed (financial sector and supervision, monetary policy, and data adequacy) while not substantially underperforming in the two other areas (fiscal policy, and external position and market access). Staff therefore recommends the completion of the third review under the PLL. |
| Keywords: | Precautionary and Liquidity Line;Budgets;Fiscal policy;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Morocco; |
| Date: | 2014–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/66&r=ara |
| By: | Zsofia Arvai; Ananthakrishnan Prasad; Kentaro Katayama |
| Abstract: | As undiversified commodity exporters, GCC economies are prone to pro-cyclical systemic risk in the financial system. During periods of high hydrocarbon prices, favorable economic prospects make the financial sector keen to lend, leading to higher domestic credit growth and easier access to external financing. Fiscal policy is a very important tool for macroeconomic management, but due to the significant time lags and expenditure rigidities, it has not been a flexible enough tool to prevent credit booms and the build-up of systemic risk in the GCC. This, together with limited monetary policy independence because of the pegged exchange rate, means that macro-prudential policy has a particularly important role in limiting systemic risk in the financial system. This importance is reinforced by the underdeveloped financial markets in the region that provide limited risk management tools and shortcomings in crisis resolution frameworks. This paper will discuss the importance of macro-prudential policy in the GCC countries, look at the experience with macro-prudential policies in the boom/bust cycle in the second half of the 2000s, and use the broad frameworks being developed in the Fund and elsewhere to discuss ways existing frameworks and policy toolkits in the region can be strengthened given the characteristics of the GCC economies. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential Policy;Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf;Financial sector;Financial risk;Risk management;Fiscal policy; |
| Date: | 2014–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:14/1&r=ara |
| By: | Alberto Behar; Jaime Espinosa-Bowen |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS. |
| Keywords: | External shocks;Middle East and Central Asia;Spillovers;Exports;Economic models;Gravity model, exports, spillovers, trade, Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus, Central Asia |
| Date: | 2014–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/80&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background. The political transition is moving forward again following another period of political upheaval and security tensions. However, the protracted political crisis of the past few months has taken a toll on the economy, resulting in a weaker economic recovery than envisaged and further erosion of external and fiscal buffers. Program performance has been mixed. End-June and end-September NIR and NDA quantitative performance criteria have been met, but are estimated to have been missed by end-December because of lower external financing and the high liquidity needs of the banking sector. A weak budget composition, lower budget commitments, and deferred cash payments to 2014 resulted in an overperformance of the end-December fiscal target for the central government primary balance. The implementation of structural reforms has been progressing, but with some delays linked to building a consensus during the political crisis, and to technical difficulties. Looking ahead, the program will continue to focus on ensuring short-term macroeconomic stabilization while laying the foundations for sustained reforms that will reduce economic vulnerabilities and generate higher and more inclusive growth. A more growth-oriented budget composition—including revenue reforms and the reform of regressive energy subsidies—and the build-up of a targeted household support program will lay the foundations for higher and more inclusive growth. A prudent monetary policy and greater exchange rate flexibility will continue to underpin macroeconomic stabilization. Structural reforms should be accelerated to enhance private sector development and make a dent in unemployment. Risks to program implementation are important. Main risks relate to setbacks in the political transition. Commitment to program objectives will be tested by resistance to some necessary but not always popular reforms, which will need to be managed through further consultations and proactive communication with stakeholders. The completion of the combined first and second reviews will make SDR 329.12 million (about USD 500 million) available. |
| Keywords: | Stand-by arrangement reviews;Transition economies;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Public enterprises;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Performance criteria waivers;Tunisia; |
| Date: | 2014–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/50&r=ara |
| By: | Slim Chaouachi; Zied Ftiti; Frédèric Teulon |
| Abstract: | The aim of this work is to propose a new sequential strategy-three steps testing procedure- based on recently introduced econometric techniques, in order to assess the meanreverting properties of the real exchange rate and to check whether real exchange r |
| Keywords: | Real Exchange Rate, Long Memory, Structural Breaks, Spurious, and Tunisia. |
| JEL: | C22 F31 |
| Date: | 2014–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-390&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy;Hydrocarbons;Nonoil sector;Global competitiveness;Real effective exchange rates;Exchange rate depreciation;Monetary policy;Monetary transmission mechanism;Selected issues;Algeria; |
| Date: | 2014–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/34&r=ara |
| By: | Saad A. Alshahrani; Ali J. Alsadiq |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the effects of different types of government expenditures, on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. We use different econometric techniques to estimate the short- and long-run effects of these expenditures on growth and employ annual data over the period 1969-2010. Our findings indicate that while private domestic and public investments, as well as healthcare expenditure, stimulate growth in the long-run, openness to trade and spending in the housing sector can also boost short-run production. These findings draw some policy implications for Saudi policymakers on maximizing the returns of the government spending on economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth;Saudi Arabia;Government expenditures;Fiscal policy;Time series;Economic models;Government Spending, Oil Exporting Economy, total expenditures, capital expenditures, defense expenditures, health expenditures, education expenditures, public expenditures, expenditure growth, expenditure categories, consumption expenditure, composition of government spending, medium-term expenditure, medium-term expenditure framework, fiscal affairs, taxation, capital expenditure growth, public spending, government consumption expenditure, fiscal affairs department |
| Date: | 2014–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/3&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | KEY ISSUES Context. Iran had achieved considerable progress in raising per capita income and living standards in previous decades. But in recent years, such progress stalled as both domestic policies and the external environment deteriorated. Inflation has increased sharply and non-oil growth is well below potential. Corporate and financial-sector vulnerabilities have emerged, and unemployment rates are high. A difficult external environment and domestic vulnerabilities raise the risk of entrenching the economy in a low-growth high-inflation scenario. The authorities are well aware of the challenges and the reforms needed, but face a highly-complex institutional set-up and socio- political context. Advancing reforms will require broad political commitment and needs to be supported by strong coordination and cooperation among key policymakers. A highly uncertain outlook. Facing continued constraints on oil revenues and to carry out international transactions, the economy is expected to continue to contract in 2013/14. With some positive tailwinds from the external side and modest incipient signs that the pace of contraction in domestic demand is slowing, economic activity would begin to stabilize in 2014/15. While the current outlook is subject to downside risks, the interim agreement with the P5+1 also brings upside risks. Were this progress to derail, the economy could be subject to new adverse shocks. Dealing with stagflation. The policy mix should support the economy while also gradually reducing inflation. Fiscal deficits should be contained at around 2–3 percent of GDP, by broadening the revenue base away from oil and by keeping a tight lid on spending. This should be complemented by reforms that boost the supply side (product, labor, and credit markets) as well as the demand side (to restore monetary policy credibility, reduce uncertainty, and better coordinate fiscal management). Subsidy Reform. Iran’s design of the subsidy reform has been exemplary and the reform remains a priority. Plans to increase domestic energy prices gradually are prudent but should be underpinned by an automatic price adjustment mechanism to ensure full implementation, by consistent macroeconomic policies, and by reforms to foster the adoption of new technologies and tighter budget constraints, particularly in energy- intensive sectors. Strengthening the Policy Framework. Fiscal reforms should empower the scope for countercyclical fiscal policy, better support macroeconomic stability, and be framed within a medium-term expenditure planning to limit fiscal risks. Priority needs to be given to price stability, by improving the mandate and operational autonomy of the Central Bank of Iran and by reviewing government-mandated credit policies. Work to unify the exchange rate should be initiated, while preserving flexibility ahead to ensure competitiveness. Reforms to Promote Growth and Jobs. There is a need to improve business regulations, advance effective privatizations, and reduce nonwage labor costs. Addressing weaknesses in the banking system is important, including by improving the supervisory and crisis preparedness frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;External shocks;Disinflation;Monetary policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Iran; |
| Date: | 2014–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/93&r=ara |
| By: | Ahmed Fayez Abdelgouad (Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Based on dual labor market theory, fixed-term contracts (FTCs) as an important feature of labor market flexibility were analyzed to test the following hypothesis: Firms in the manufacturing sector in Egypt use FTCs to adjust the level of employment to the profit maximizing level in case of demand changes. The hypothesis was not supported by the results of econometric analyses with a firm-level data set from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. Probit and Tobit models were used to estimate the probability and intensity of different kinds of numerical labor market flexibility (FTCs utilization, hiring and firing) in Egypt. Empirical results revealed that demand changes had no effects on using FTCs in the manufacturing firms in Egypt. In addition, the results indicated that there was no effect on using hiring and firing instruments. |
| Keywords: | labor market flexibility, fixed-term contracts (FTCs), dual labor market |
| JEL: | J21 J41 J42 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lue:wpaper:301&r=ara |
| By: | Randa Sab |
| Abstract: | Using narrative-based country-case studies, war episodes in the Middle East were examined to assess their economic impact on conflict and neighboring economies. The paper found that conflicts led to a contraction in growth, higher inflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, loss of reserves, and a weakened financial system. Post-conflict recovery depended on the economic and institutional development of the country, economic structure, duration of the war, international engagement, and prevailing security conditions. The net economic impact on neighboring countries varied according to their initial economic conditions, number and income level of refugees they hosted, economic integration, and external assistance. |
| Keywords: | Regional shocks;Middle East;Economic recovery;Spillovers;Cross country analysis;Economic indicators;Conflict, post-conflict economic recovery, Middle East |
| Date: | 2014–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/100&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. On June 7, 2013, the Executive Board approved a 24-month SBA in an amount equivalent to 400 percent of quota (SDR 1.15 billion or about $1.75 billion). To date, SDR 427.92 equivalent to $659 million has been disbursed. The pillars of the program are to: (i) achieve short-term macroeconomic stability; (ii) lay the foundation for stronger and more inclusive growth; and (iii) protect the most vulnerable. Background. The adoption of a new constitution and the formation of a new technocratic government in January 2014 led to greater confidence on political prospects and economic reforms. Growth has been moderate and remains insufficient to bring down unemployment significantly in the short term. At the same time, external and fiscal imbalances remain high, while demands for higher wages and additional jobs are rising. The program is broadly on track. Two out of three 2013 end-December quantitative performance criteria (QPC) targets have been missed, but by a smaller margin than originally envisaged, and all end-March 2014 QPCs are expected to be met. Progress on the structural reform agenda has been slowed by last year’s political crisis and the transition between governments. Program strategy. Containing current expenditures, and pursuing prudent monetary policy and greater exchange rate flexibility are essential to contain high external and fiscal deficits and to build investors’ confidence. Improved banking regulation, a strategic orientation of public banks, and strengthened supervision will help reduce banking sector fragilities, which are currently hampering private sector development. Scaling up public investments, reforming tax policy and revenue administration, accelerating public enterprise reform, and protecting the most vulnerable will help lay the foundations for more inclusive growth and level the playing field for investors. Risks to program implementation are important. Main risks relate to regional and domestic security tensions, set-backs in the political transition, and weaker economic activity in major trading partners. Successful implementation of the Fund-supported program will be contingent on the government’s ability to garner consensus among political parties backing it and on its capacity to push reforms through vested interests. The completion of the third review will make SDR 145.08 million (about $225 million) available. |
| Keywords: | Stand-by arrangement reviews;Transition economies;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Performance criteria modifications;Performance criteria waivers;Tunisia; |
| Date: | 2014–05–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/123&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Abstract: | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The global crisis has had virtually no impact on Algeria’s financial system, which remains stable overall but thoroughly underdeveloped. Pervasive exchange controls, widespread public ownership, and an abundance of domestic funding have protected banks from external shocks. Financial sector reforms have been pushed to the backburner by the emergence of global financial and regional political turmoil, with privatization of banks halted and consumer lending suspended. The authorities have made progress in a number of areas implementing the recommendations of the 2007 FSAP update. Banking supervision was improved by introducing a risk-based bank rating system, and by tightening and adopting internationally accepted prudential standards. In addition, the central bank has taken on additional responsibilities in the area of financial stability, and has published its first financial stability report. Moreover, the team’s stability analysis suggests only moderate vulnerability of the financial system to shocks. Stress tests indicate that credit and specifically loan concentration are the main banking sector risks, and that public banks are most vulnerable. In particular, the public banks are highly exposed to large state-owned enterprises involved in the manufacturing, construction, and commerce sectors, which leaves them exposed to firm- and sector-specific shocks. However, Algeria’s external and fiscal buffers are substantial, owing to high oil prices, and past experience has illustrated that the state is able and prepared to provide a backstop to the banks. However, a number of important recommendations from the 2007 FSAP remain valid. Governance of public banks still needs to be enhanced, and the operations of the judicial system, including for extra-judicial procedures for debt workouts, requires further strengthening. Public banks have not been privatized, and a well-defined yield-curve based on an interest rate-centered monetary policy is still lacking. Even closer coordination between the BA and the MoF is needed to enable better liquidity management. And besides these measures, a broader reform strategy is needed to better enable the financial system to support economic growth: • Modernizing the financial sector: Measures are needed to facilitate financial deepening, including further improving corporate governance in state banks, implementing the public credit registry modernization plan, improving the collateral regime and strengthening insolvency rights, boosting the financial sector safety net and introducing a dedicated bank resolution regime, enhancing risk-based banking supervision and other financial sector supervision and oversight, strengthening the AML/CFT regime by addressing the strategic deficiencies identified by the FATF, and promoting access to finance. |
| Keywords: | Financial system stability assessment;Financial sector;Banks;Nonbank financial sector;Basel Core Principles;Bank supervision;Stress testing;Financial stability;Financial safety nets;Algeria; |
| Date: | 2014–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/161&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Fiscal policy;Housing;Monetary policy;Macroprudential Policy;Economic models;Selected issues;Israel;Housing prices; |
| Date: | 2014–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/48&r=ara |
| By: | Jellal, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a model of theoritical reflection on the following fact: the Moroccan industrial economy is not competitive and technological gap is wide between local industries and foreign firms. This observation leads us to organize this debate by offering a rigorous theoretical framework to better understand the underlying incentives to upgrade the actual Moroccan industrial firms to reduce their technological gap. Further, it is shown how the state can establish a system of tax subsidy that can naturally induce firms to invest more in industrial modernization and potentially achieve a complete technological convergence |
| Keywords: | morocco, technological gap , industrial policy, incentives and modernization |
| JEL: | O1 O14 O25 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2014–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57218&r=ara |