nep-ara New Economics Papers
on MENA - Middle East and North Africa
Issue of 2014‒05‒24
fourteen papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
University of Ottawa

  1. Integration versus segmentation in Middle East North Africa equity market: Time variations and currency risk By Khaled Guesmi; Jean-Yves Moisseron; Frédéric Teulon
  2. Evaluating the Impact of the Post-2008 Employment Subsidy Program in Turkey By Binnur Balkan; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Semih Tumen
  3. Better Luck Next Time: Learning through Retaking By Verónica Frisancho; Kala Krishna; Sergey Lychagin; Cemile Yavas
  4. Carbon emissions - income relationships with structural breaks: the case of the Middle East and North African countries By Ahdi Noomen Ajmi; Ghassen El Montasser; Duc Khuong Nguyen
  5. The Effects of Oil Prices On Inflation and Growth: Time Series Analysis In Turkish Economy For 1988:01-2013:04 Period By KARGI, Bilal
  6. Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Long-Term Co-integrated Analysis for Turkey By KARGI, Bilal
  7. The effects of remittances on poverty and inequality: Evidence from rural southern Morocco By Miftah, Amal; Bouoiyour, Jamal
  8. Portfolio in Turkish Economy, and A Long Termed Relation Between Foreign Direct Investments and The Growth, and The Structural Breakage Analysis (1980-2012) By KARGI, Bilal
  9. The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainability: A panel data analysis By Sahbi Farhani; Sana Mrizak; Anissa Chaibi; Christophe Rault
  10. L’émirat du Qatar, un micro-Etat qui veut exister à tout prix By Jean MESSIHA; Frédéric TEULON; Guillaume BIGOT
  11. Uluslararası Kredi Derecelendirme Kuruluşları ve Türkiye'nin Kredi Notu Üzerine Bir İnceleme (1998-2013) By KARGI, Bilal
  12. Yurt Ici Uretici Fiyat Endeksi Cekirdek Enflasyon Gostergeleri By Selen Baser Andic
  13. Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sürekli Gelir Hipotezine İlişkin Kanıtlar: Zaman Serileri Analizi (2004-2012) By KARGI, Bilal
  14. Dis Ticaret Istatistiklerinde Mevsimsel Anomaliler By Aslihan Atabek Demirhan

  1. By: Khaled Guesmi; Jean-Yves Moisseron; Frédéric Teulon
    Abstract: This article investigates the dynamics of regional financial integration and its determinants in an international setting. We test a conditional version of the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) accounting for the deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) as well as temporal variations in both regional and local sources of risk. Using data from seven major countries of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region (Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Kuwait and Tunisia) , our results support the validity of ICAPM and indicate that the risk is regionally priced. Furthermore, we show that changes in the degree of regional stock market integration are explained principally by inflation, exchange rate volatility, rate spread variations, Short-term interest rate and world market dividend yield.
    Keywords: Multivariate GARCH, Intra-regional integration, CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model)
    JEL: F36 C32 G15
    Date: 2014–05–19
  2. By: Binnur Balkan; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Semih Tumen
    Abstract: The Turkish government started an employment subsidy program in 2008 to generate new employment for younger men and all women, which are the relatively disadvantaged groups in the Turkish labor market. In this paper, we use a nationally representative micro-level dataset and a difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the effects of this subsidy program. Our results indicate that, on aggregate, the subsidy program seems to be ineffective in increasing the employment probabilities of those individuals in the target group. However, when heterogeneity is accounted for by dividing the treatment group into several sub-groups, we observe that the program has been notably effective on some of those sub-groups. In particular, we find that the increase in employment probability is more pronounced for older women, while a weaker positive effect is observed for younger women and almost no effect is detected for younger men. The effect on older women is subject to further heterogeneity : the subsidy program has increased the employment probabilities of low-educated and/or low-skill older women rather than the high-educated and/or high-skill ones.
    Keywords: Employment subsidies; treatment effects; difference-in-differences; Turkish micro data.
    JEL: C21 H24 J21 J68
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Verónica Frisancho; Kala Krishna; Sergey Lychagin; Cemile Yavas
    Abstract: This paper provides some evidence that repeat taking of competitive exams may reduce the impact of background disadvantages on educational outcomes. Using administrative data on the university entrance exam in Turkey, the paper estimates cumulative learning between the first and the nth attempt while controlling for selection into retaking in terms of observed and unobserved characteristics. Large learning gains measured in terms of improvements in the exam scores are found, especially among less advantaged students.
    Keywords: Learning, Educational tests, Higher Education
    Date: 2014–01
  4. By: Ahdi Noomen Ajmi; Ghassen El Montasser; Duc Khuong Nguyen
    Abstract: This article revisits the C02 emissions-GDF causal relationships in the Middle East
    Keywords: income, CO2 emissions, robust causality.
    Date: 2014–05–19
  5. By: KARGI, Bilal
    Abstract: In this study, the analysis was that the capacity of creating inflation depends on oil prices as the one of energy types that is a major input of aggregate output which becomes a source of economic growth with increasing in costs. The aggregate output is also a function of energy that is the one of production inputs. Moreover, energy is an imported by several countries because it is acquired from the limited sources around the world. It causes inflation of importing countries to exporting countries through oil prices. At the same time, the rises of oil prices causes inflation because it increases the product costs. The second argument is that the increasing of aggregate output is generally affected by energy use, and is privately affected by oil use. In that case, oil import is both efficient on inflation and on growth. Tested hypothesis in the study is that oil prices have an inflationary effect because of its effect on costs, and is that this activity will negatively affect the growth because of its effect on expectations. In this study, the effects of the crude oil import of Turkey for inflation and growth are analysed over the long term. The committed analyses show that GDP was affected by oil imports, and it also caused inflation in the Turkish economy.
    Keywords: Oil Import, Inflation, Economic Growth
    JEL: C32 E31 Q43
    Date: 2014–03
  6. By: KARGI, Bilal
    Abstract: Energy and especially electricity consumption is a variable that can be also considered as the indication of the social development as far as economic growth is concerned. Energy, as the input of the industry and other production branches, is an indication for the production increase; and also for consumption with regards to raising the living standards of the consumers. In literature with its situation, it is argued that the electricity consumption is included the mutual causality relation with the growth data in a long-term. As there are several empirical studies that support this hypothesis, in some economies, especially it may sometimes be concluded that the data of the energy utilization in the production area can negatively affect growth in the long-term. Therefore, the literature does not come to the agreed results for the relation between these two variables. In this study, the causality relations have been analyzed by dividing the electricity consumption into three categories; residential, industrial and others, based on the data of the Turkish economy. In the lights of the obtained findings, it is concluded that in long term, there is at most one long-term co-integrating vector between GDP and electricity consumed in residential and industrial areas and also two-way causality relation between GDP and electricity consumed in these sectors. In this case, electricity consumption can be considered as an indicator for both growth and social development.
    Keywords: economic growth, electricity consumption, industrial consumption, residential consumption
    JEL: C22 O40 Q43
    Date: 2014–02
  7. By: Miftah, Amal; Bouoiyour, Jamal
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the effect of migrants’ remittances on poverty and inequality. The survey data were collected in Morocco, in the rural areas of the region Souss-Massa-Draa. By applying an original approach, we estimate the counterfactual income of remittance-recipient households corresponding to a hypothetical value of its average income calculated for a scenario without remittances; this is then compared with its current income. We find that the poverty rate and the vulnerability of non-poor households are significantly dropped due to remittances. Our findings also suggest that remittance inflows have increased income inequality compared to the no-migration counterfactual situation.
    Keywords: Remittances; Poverty; Income distribution; Morocco;
    JEL: D31 F24 I32 O15 O55
    Date: 2014–05
  8. By: KARGI, Bilal
    Abstract: This article remark that the activities of the international capital flows and the foreign direct investment increase on the growth process of countries. The economies attach more importance to these two factors in each passing day. On the other hand, the exposure degrees of host countries increase through the fluctuations. Especially, markets can fluctuate on a short notice because of the high speed of the capital movements. Therefore, countries mostly prefer to host the foreign direct investments. Thus, it is thought that countries can gain stability in a long term. However, this time, the damaging natural environment becomes a currect issue with the labor force and natural sources that may be adapted to the technology transfered by direct foreign capital. This study empirically resarched the actions of the foreign direct investments and portfolio investments on the growth that is theoretically presented for the finance of growth. The long term relation is researched by using the annual data of 1980-2012 in the Turkish economy. Especially, the structural breakage analysis is applied to can put forward the effects of the crisis in 1994, 2001 and 2008. The most distinct finding according to the structural breakage tests cannot be confirmed in relation between the foreign investments and growth in the Turkish economy. In addition, it has been concluded that there is a long term relation between growth and foreign capital investments (the direct and portfolio).
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, economic growth
    JEL: F21 F43 F44 O11 O40
    Date: 2014–03
  9. By: Sahbi Farhani; Sana Mrizak; Anissa Chaibi; Christophe Rault
    Abstract: In recent years, sustainability has represented one of the most important policy goals explored in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) literature. But related hypotheses, performance measures and results continue to present a challenge. The present paper contributes to this ongoing literature by studying two different EKC specifications for 10 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1990–2010 using panel data methods. For the first specification, namely EKC, we show that there is an inverted U- shape relationship between environmental degradation and income; while for the second specification, namely modified EKC (MEKC), we show that there is an inverted U-shape relationship between sustainability and human development (HD). The relationships are shaped by other factors such as energy, trade, manufacture added value and the role of law. More interestingly, findings from the estimation show that EKC hypothesis, HD and sustainability are crucial to build effective environmental policies.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Sustainability; Panel data analysis.
    Date: 2014–05–19
  10. By: Jean MESSIHA; Frédéric TEULON; Guillaume BIGOT
    Abstract: During the past decade, Qatar has changed status. A micro invisible state on a world map with a little presence in the regional balance in the Middle East, Qatar has become a cultural power (al-Jazeeras success), diplomatic (the arbiter of political transitions) and financial (QIA). It is unclear whether this new role is tied to a specific situation or if it is sustainable. However, several factors of fragility are highlighted.
    Date: 2014–05–23
  11. By: KARGI, Bilal
    Abstract: This work is about the compatibility of the given credit rates to Turkey by the USA originated credit rating companies and the data of the Turkish economy. When their own resources are not enough to finance economical growth, countries are needed for foreign investments. These foreign investments are wanted by countries as direct foreign investments or financial investments. Both kinds want to have a trust on these types of economies to invest on them. For this reason, it is needed to have a indicator for safety of a country to invest. Most important indicator developed for this purpose is credit rate. First of all, the "Credit Rating" concept is examined and the purpose and quality of these international establishments are examined. Then, the credit rating criteria of the USA originated S&P Fitch and Moody’s establishments are examined. The relation of these criteria and certain basic data (GDP, Current Account Balance, Foreign Borrowing and, Inflation) of Turkish economy is discussed. Depending on these data, it seems that S&P is the agency following Turkey the closest. In the order, the other are Fitch and Moody’s. But while the most optimist ratings are Moody’s, S&P ratings are the most fluctuated ones. In this case, it can be assumed that a possible decrease in rating in 2014 may come from S&P.
    Keywords: Credit Rating Agencies, Turkey Economy, Economic Growth.
    JEL: G24 O40 O52
    Date: 2014–03
  12. By: Selen Baser Andic
    Abstract: [TR] Cekirdek enflasyon gostergeleri genellikle tuketici fiyatlarindaki degisimin ana egilimini gormek icin olusturulmaktadir. Bu calismada, uc basamakli yurt ici uretici fiyat endeksi (YI-UFE) imalat grubu alt kalemlerinin aylik enflasyonlarinin oynakligina ve dagilimlarina göre dislamasiyla Turkiye icin on bir adet YI-UFE cekirdek enflasyon gostergesi elde edilmistir. Gostergeler yansizlik, ana egilim takibi, oynaklik, tahmin gucu ve anlasilir olma kriterlerine gore karsilastirilmistir. Sonuclar tum kriterler esas alindiginda tek bir en iyi gosterge olmadigini, dolayisiyla uretici fiyatlarindaki degisimin ana egilimini anlamak icin birden fazla gostergenin bir arada takip edilmesi gerektigini isaret etmektedir. Bu gostergeler, ortalama aylik enflasyona 1,5 standart sapmadan daha uzak aylik enflasyona sahip kalemlerin budandigi V_1,5 ile ana metal ve petrol haric imalattir. [EN] In general, core inflation measures are designed to identify the underlying trend in inflation in consumer prices. In this study, via exclusion of three-digit sub-indices of the manufacturing group according to volatility and dispersion in their monthly inflation rates, eleven core inflation indicators for domestic producer price index for Turkey are constructed. These measures are then evaluated with respect to unbiasedness, trend tracking, volatility, predictive power and complexity criteria. Results reveal that taking into account all the criteria there is no single best indicator, therefore more than one indicator should be monitored together. These measures are found as manufacturing excluding basic metals and petroleum and V_1.5, which is calculated by trimming indices with monthly inflations that are 1.5 standard deviation away from the average monthly inflation.
    Date: 2014
  13. By: KARGI, Bilal
    Abstract: In this study, income and consumption expenditures, which are the reflections of the economic growth’s supply and demand facades, are analyzed. There are six basic hypothesis, which try to explain how consumer spending affected from consumers' income levels and of these the most common is Friedman's "Permanent Income Hypothesis". In this study, evidence for this hypothesis is being sought from Turkey's economy data. As a result of the time-series analysis of quarterly data for the period 2004:01-2012:03, consumers, consumption expenditures are not only affected by current income but also influenced by the expectations of the next period. Indeed, expectations are calculated as the Granger cause of consumer spending. This finding is cited as evidence for Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis for Turkey's economy.
    Keywords: Permanent Income Hypothesis, Growth, Turkey Economy, Consumption Expenditures, Time Series Analysis
    JEL: I31 O11 O40
    Date: 2014–02
  14. By: Aslihan Atabek Demirhan
    Abstract: [TR] Takvim ve calisma gunu etkisi zaman serilerindeki gercek egilimin izlenmesini engelleyen en temel faktorlerden biridir. Bu etkinin dogru bir sekilde belirlenebilmesi gerek daha dogru ongoru yapilabilmesi, gerekse daha saglikli mevsimsel faktörlerin elde edilebilmesi icin onemli bir role sahiptir. Bu calismanin amaci, geleneksel yaklasimlardan farkli olarak, gunluk veriler kullanilarak dis ticaret istatistikleri icin takvim ve calisma günü etkisini detayli bir sekilde ortaya koymaktir. Bu amacla, 2004-2013 dönemine ait gunluk veriler kullanilarak dis ticaret istatistiklerinde gun etkisi, gunlerin ay ici konumu ve tatil etkileri gibi takvim etkileri regresyon analizleri ile test edilmistir. Model sonuclari ihracat ve ithalat verilerinde soz konusu etkilerin anlamli oldugunu ortaya koymustur. [EN] Calendar and trading day effect is one of the main factors that masks underlying movements of the time series. Estimation of this component permits to obtain better forecasts and more stable seasonal components. The aim of this study is to provide detailed analysis for the impact of calendar and trading day on foreign trade statistics. In this respect, unlike traditional approaches, using daily export and import data for 2004-2013 period, day, within month and holiday effects are tested via regression analysis. Findings reveal the importance of the corresponding effects.
    Date: 2014

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