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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | KARGI, Bilal |
| Abstract: | In the present study, labor markets were analyzed, in particular, the reasons of low labor force rate to make sense based on the data of Turkish economy. While in the advanced economies, the labor force rate is quite high and has small fluctuations around a certain extent over a long-term. In the Turkish economy, it prominently falls in a long-term. Turkey is 18th by population size and 17th by GDP in world ranking and although its population effectively provides labor force rate, it will be highly effective on its economic growth. The study that based on co-integration analysis with long-term of the labor data with respect to the economy of Turkey concluded that labor variables concern with GDP and co-integration in a long-term. In particular, when the presence of strong relation between the growth and the non-institutional population is produced, it is emphasized that the present relation between the growth and the labor variable isn’t strong enough. |
| Keywords: | Population, labor force rate, economic growth. |
| JEL: | J21 O40 O52 |
| Date: | 2014–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55186&r=ara |
| By: | Juan Luis Santos; Tomás Mancha; Jagoda Anna Kaszowska |
| Abstract: | In this work we analyze the importance of service innovation in the entrepreneurial and business activity in five countries that represent a 65 percent of the population of the Middle East. We study the characteristics of the owners of firms in the service sector according to the Standard Industrial Classification. We highlight the differences between services and industries with respect to innovation. Then we analyze the determinants of service innovation in this set of countries during the period 2001-2008 and the role of individual characteristics such as gender, age, skills and perception of business owners’ status. We estimate the most important factors for innovation in services sector and we compare them with the ones of manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | Middle East, Service innovation, Innovative entrepreneur, Service sector |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:24&r=ara |
| By: | Temel Taskin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we discover the inclusiveness of GDP growth in Turkey over the course of the last decade. In doing so, we use a recently developed method a la Anand et al. (2013) which integrates efficiency and equity dimensions of economic growth in a single measure. We find that Turkish GDP growth was - on average - inclusive between 2002 and 2011. We also investigate cross-region and over-time developments for the available data period, and document significant heterogeneity in inclusiveness of economic growth across these dimensions. Moreover, the regional analysis based on 2006-2011 period reflects an efficiency-equity tradeoff in Turkey’s economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, inclusive growth, regional growth, income distribution, per capita income |
| JEL: | D63 O47 R11 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1408&r=ara |
| By: | Cem Aysoy; Cevriye Aysoy; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | Using a national panel of housing units, this paper documents that the rate of nominal rigidities in housing rents is high in Turkey between 2008 and 2011. We find that, on average, 31.5 percent of the rents did not change from year to year in nominal terms. We then ask if the incidence of nominal rigidity depends on the turnover status of the housing unit. We show that 35.4 percent of the nonturnover units had rigid rents, while for only 17.1 percent of the turnover units rents did not change. We also present evidence that grid pricing is responsible for more than half of the observed nominal rigidities in housing rents. The household- and individual-level determinants of the nominal rigidities in rents, turnover status, and tenure in the same unit are also investigated using the micro-level details available in our dataset. Implications of these results for monetary policy, in ation accounting, welfare, asset prices, and other redistributional issues are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Housing rents; nominal rigidities; turnover; grid pricing |
| JEL: | E31 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1409&r=ara |
| By: | Dreger, Christian; Rahmani, Teymur |
| Abstract: | In line with the neoclassical growth model a persistent stream of oil revenues might have a long lasting impact on GDP per capita in oil exporting countries through higher investment activities. This relationship is explored for Iran and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) using (panel) cointegration techniques. The existence of cointegration between oil revenues, GDP and investment can be confirmed for all countries. While the cointegration vector is found to be unique for Iran, long run equations for GDP and investment per capita are distinguished for the Gulf countries. Both variables respond to deviations from the steady state, while oil income can be treated as weakly exogenous. The long run oil elasticities for the Gulf states exceed their Iranian counterparts. In addition, investment in Iran does not react to oil revenues in the long run. Hence, oil revenues may have been spend less wisely in Iran over the past decades. -- |
| Keywords: | oil exporting countries,oil revenues,panel cointegration |
| JEL: | F43 O53 Q30 C33 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:349&r=ara |
| By: | KARGI, Bilal |
| Abstract: | Although some discussions about the relation between population and the economic growth are made for a long time, today there is a general opinion that the population growth has positive relation with the economic growth. This opinion is also supported by the empirical studies. Despite there is a growth directly advancing with the population growth, the advancing of the population in the opposite direction with the rate of the labor force participation is thought to be a paradox. This paradox reveals some concepts, namely, "jobless growth" and " unskilled growth". In this study, an explanation is sought about the remaining or less increasing of the rate of the labor force participation although a linear relation between the GDP and the population and the labor. The official statements refer that this paradox is related with the lack of female participation in the labor force and employment in the agricultural sector to be falling. This study tries to point that this quantity cannot create a quality although the growth is quantitative. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Labor Force Participation Rate, Labor Markets, Turkey Economy. |
| JEL: | J01 O40 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55702&r=ara |
| By: | Serhat Asci; Ali Koç; Sukru Erdem |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:34&r=ara |
| By: | Kurmas Akdogan; Burcu Deniz Yildirim |
| Abstract: | We provide a detailed classification of core and non-core liabilities for the Turkish banking system à la Shin and Shin (2010). We further carry out a two-stage liquidity stress test similar to Van Den End (2010) where we simulate inflow and outflow factors as well as the network topology of mutual liabilities between financial institutions. Our results indicate that Turkish banking system with relatively low level of non-core liabilities is to a great extent robust to liquidity shocks. Nevertheless, the level of non-core liabilities should be monitored closely considering its pro-cyclical behaviour over the business cycle and its strong correlation with credit growth |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, non-core liabilities, liquidity stress test, network topology |
| JEL: | C15 E44 G21 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1412&r=ara |
| By: | Jamal BOUOIYOUR; Amal MIFTAH |
| Abstract: | The Effects of Remittances on Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Rural Southern Morocco |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2013-2014_14&r=ara |
| By: | Randa Alami (Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper takes stock of the current status of health sectors in MENA. From the narrow perspective of national aggregate indicators, as with most middle income countries, the region has seen significant achievements. Yet, health sectors face systemic challenges, and suffer from significant and persistent inequities in health outcomes, access, delivery, and distribution of health services. Out of pocket spending levels are amongst the highest in the world, and are driven by: privatisation, poor social protection and insurance coverage, and the inability to respond to the epidemiological transition. Consequently, the financial burden of healthcare forces significant swathes of the population into poverty, or to forgo healthcare altogether. Sectoral policies have been piecemeal and short-termist, with a clear neglect of public health sectors. These deficiencies are more evident if MENA is benchmarked against many of their peers, or against the international consensus of Universal Health Care (UHC). |
| Keywords: | health, health inequity, universal health care, Middle East, inclusive growth |
| JEL: | I14 I15 I18 H51 N35 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:188&r=ara |
| By: | Bouoiyour, Jamal; Miftah, Amal |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the effect of migrants’ remittances on poverty and inequality. The survey data were collected in Morocco, in the rural areas of the region Souss-Massa-Draa. By applying an original approach, we estimate the counterfactual income of remittance-recipient households corresponding to a hypothetical value of its average income calculated for a scenario without remittances; this is then compared with its current income. We find that the poverty rate and the vulnerability of non-poor households are significantly dropped due to remittances. Our findings also suggest that remittance inflows have increased income inequality compared to the no-migration counterfactual situation. |
| Keywords: | Remittances; Poverty; Income distribution; Morocco. |
| JEL: | F22 F24 I32 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:55686&r=ara |
| By: | María Dolores Parra; Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso; Celestino Suarez-Burguet |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the main obstacles that Egyptian enterprises face to do business in their country and investigates to what extent the constraints affect firm performance. Firm’s performance is measured as Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which is obtained using Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) methodology. Our analysis evaluates the effects of the different business indicators obtained from the World Bank Enterprise Survey using firm level data from manufacturing firms on TFP. A number of control variables commonly used in the empirical literature are also included in the model. To check the robustness of our result alternative measures of firm performance are used, namely total sales and the average number of workers. The main results indicate that access and cost to finance, tax rates, regulatory policy uncertainty, the price of land and basic infrastructures, such as access to water and electricity, are among the most relevant factors. These findings have important policy implications, in particular for policy makers and will help them decide what sort of specific actions can be taken to reduce the main obstacles and consequently to pave the way for manufacturing Egyptian firms to become more competitive. |
| Keywords: | firms, total factor productivity, business environment constraints, Egypt, investment climate |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:17&r=ara |
| By: | Ezzahid, Elhadj; Maouhoub, Brahim |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the links between gradual capital account liberalization and the exchange rate regime in Morocco where the process of economic and financial openness is relatively advanced. Using a game theory model with two economic agents, that are monetary authorities and domestic firms, we explore the best choice concerning the exchange rate regime for Morocco in a context characterised by increasing openness especially of capital account. The results show that welfare under a flexible exchange rate regime is higher compared to welfare under a fixed exchange rate regime. The analysis also shows that the flexible exchange rate will improve competitiveness. However, flexibility will undermine price stability. -- |
| Keywords: | capital account liberalization,exchange rate regime,competitiveness,inflation,Morocco |
| JEL: | F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201418&r=ara |
| By: | Vuslat Us |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) for the Turkish economy as an unobserved stochastic variable. In doing so, the study adopts an empirical framework that is based on a systems approach. More specifically, the framework combines an Okun-type relationship between output gap and unemployment gap with a Phillips curve equation, and also imposes stochastic laws of motion for NAIRU and potential output, while assuming the parameters to be time-varying. However, the requirement to simultaneously estimate parameters and to solve the state-space problem introduces nonlinearity, which can be handled by employing Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), i.e. the use of standard Kalman filter equations to the first-order Taylor approximation of the nonlinear model about the last estimate. Estimation results suggest that NAIRU moves in tandem with the actual unemployment, but it follows a more volatile path than the latter. Accordingly, the estimated NAIRU series reacts more sharply to the crises than the actual unemployment. This observation is in line with the prior studies reporting the relatively persistent nature of actual unemployment compared to the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. All of the derived series are plausible and capture the significant turning points of the economy. As for coefficients, the time-varying parameters indicate a stable, yet quite a weak link between unemployment and inflation. Meanwhile, the coefficient of exchange rate in the Phillips curve equation suggests a weakening, but significant pass-through to inflation. Moreover, estimation results also point to the presence of considerable inertia in inflation. To sum up, findings of this study provide guidance for future research on NAIRU, which is an important tool for monetary policy. The findings also lay the basis for further work that may adopt EKF. But most importantly, this study emphasizes the need for a more flexible and comprehensive framework for the conduct of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | NAIRU, Systems approach, Phillips curve, Okun law, Time-varying parameter, Extended Kalman Filter, Inertia, Monetary policy |
| JEL: | C32 C63 E24 E31 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1406&r=ara |
| By: | Nasr, Adnen Ben; Lux, Thomas; Ajm, Ahdi Noomen; Gupta, Rangan |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis has fueled interest in alternatives to traditional asset classes that might be less affected by large market gyrations and, thus, provide for a less volatile development of a portfolio. One attempt at selecting stocks that are less prone to extreme risks, is obeyance of Islamic Sharia rules. In this light, we investigate the statistical properties of the Dow Jones Islamic Stock Market Index (DJIM) and explore its volatility dynamics using a number of up-to-date statistical models allowing for long memory and regime-switching dynamics. We find that the DJIM shares all stylized facts of traditional asset classes, and estimation results and forecasting performance for various volatility models are also in line with prevalent findings in the literature. Overall, the relatively new Markov-switching multifractal model performs best under the majority of time horizons and loss criteria. Long memory GARCH-type models always improve upon the short-memory GARCH specification and additionally allowing for regime changes can further improve their performance. -- |
| Keywords: | islamic finance,volatility dynamics,long memory,multifractals |
| JEL: | G15 G17 G23 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:201407&r=ara |
| By: | Michele Gradoli |
| Abstract: | During the last twenty years, Europe started to search for a new approach towards the Mediterranean region: after the re-start of its internal economy after the World War II, and after the re-launch of the economic integration process, Europe began a diffuse reflection on its relationships with the Northern African and Middle Eastern countries. This reflection produced several forms of partnerships and alliances and my intention with this paper is to highlight the main steps of this convergent pathway that started in 1995 with the EuroMediterranean Partnership (EMP) |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:19&r=ara |
| By: | Jamal BOUOIYOUR; Amal MIFTAH |
| Abstract: | Why do Migrants remit? An insightful Analysis for Moroccan Case |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2013-2014_13&r=ara |
| By: | Nemiri-Yaïci Farida; Benahmed Kafia |
| Abstract: | Depuis quelques décennies, le secteur des assurances est considéré comme un service stratégique de la nouvelle économie. En effet, à travers ses multiples fonctions de transfert des risques, mobilisation de l’épargne, allocation des ressources et information, l’assurance contribue à la réduction de l’incertitude et à la sécurité de l’homme et de ses activités. L’assurance occupe donc une place importante dans l’économie. Outre les garanties qu'elle offre, l’assurance se présente comme un des secteurs privilégiés susceptibles de jouer un rôle déterminant dans la croissance économique. Partant de cette thèse, ce travail a pour objet d’évaluer les liens entre l’assurance et la croissance économique en effectuant une étude comparative entre les trois pays maghrébins (Maroc, Tunisie, Algérie). |
| Keywords: | Assurance, primes d’assurances, assurance vie, assurance non vie, croissance économique, Maroc, Tunisie, Algérie |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:12&r=ara |
| By: | Fatima Arib |
| Abstract: | Le Maroc est confronté à des défis complexes. L’économie verte pourrait lui offrir un nouveau cadre pour repenser son développement économique de manière stratégique et durable. Cette économie incite à utiliser la contrainte environnementale comme levier pour le développement durable, à travers notamment la relance de l'activité économique et de l'emploi, l'amélioration du bien-être des individus et la réduction des inégalités sociales. Cet article s’appuie sur le cas du Maroc, pour analyser les opportunités des éco-activités en général, et des éco services en particulier en termes de création d’emploi. Nous discutons également les différentes opportunités d’innovation qu’offrent ces services, pour promouvoir les interactions sociales, écologiques et économiques, dont l’objectif est le développement d’une économie verte. Nous nous attardons sur les conditions de mobilisation de ces opportunités pour en tirer profit dans la création de richesses et d’emplois au Maroc. |
| Keywords: | Maroc, économie verte, services, environnement, emploi, innovation. |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:29&r=ara |
| By: | José M. Domínguez Martínez; Rafael López del Paso |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:10&r=ara |
| By: | Javier Laorden |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:15&r=ara |
| By: | Rosario Asián Chaves; Mikel Zurbano Irizar; José Luís Navarro Espigares |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el desarrollo de servicios sanitarios en los países socios mediterráneos como hecho inclusivo a la hora de garantizar los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio, la igualdad en el acceso sanitario y la contribución de los servicios sanitarios a un área euromediterránea más integrada y homogénea. Inicialmente el documento repasa brevemente la literatura económica sobre la relación existente entre salud y desarrollo económico. También se explora el apoyo a los objetivos de salud desde el contexto de la Iniciativa Europea de Vecindad y Asociación con el Mediterráneo. Empíricamente se analizan las diferencias entre los grupos de países UE-28 y MENA en distintos aspectos relacionados con sus perfiles sociales, económicos y de salud. Finalmente se ofrecen orientaciones de política económica y sanitaria en torno al desarrollo de los sistemas de salud en los países de ambos grupos. |
| Keywords: | servicios sanitarios, área mediterránea |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:sermed:06&r=ara |