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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Mohamed Arouri; Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz; Frédéric Teulon |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of natural gas consumption, real gross fixed capital formation and trade on the real GDP in the case of Tunisia over the period 1980-2010. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to test the existence of a longterm relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) Granger approach is applied to test the direction of the causal relation between the series. Our findings indicate the existence of a long-term relationship among the variables. Natural gas consumption, real gross fixed capital formation and trade add in economic growth. Natural gas consumption, real gross fixed capital formation and real trade Granger-cause real GDP. These findings open up new insights for policymakers to formulate a comprehensive energy policy to sustain economic growth in the long term. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas consumption, Economic growth, ARDL approach |
| JEL: | C7 D8 |
| Date: | 2014–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-16&r=ara |
| By: | Zied Ftiti; Khaled Guesmi; Frédéric Teulon |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of oil prices on economic growth of the four major OPEC countries (United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela) over the period spanning from 03/09/2000 to 03/12/2010. We aim at complementing the results from existing analyses (mainly focused on oil-importing countries) by using the evolutionary co-spectral analysis as defined by Priestley and Tong (1973). We find that co-movements between oil and economic growth have different patterns depending of the studied horizons. This interdependence is a mediumlived phenomenon, revealed on a three years and one quarter horizon, being weak in the short-run (ten months). We show that oil price shocks in periods of world turmoil or during fluctuations of the global business cycle (downturn or growth, as for instance the 2008 financial crisis) have a significant impact on the relationship between oil and economic growth in oil-exporting countries. |
| Keywords: | oil prices shocks, stock markets, evolutionary co-spectral analysis, OPEC |
| JEL: | C14 C22 G12 G15 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-23&r=ara |
| By: | Hela Miniaoui; Anissa Chaibi |
| Abstract: | The present study empirically investigates the technical efficiency of takaful industry operations in Malaysia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was employed to estimate the technical efficiency of using Constant Returns to Scale (CRS) and Variable Return to Scale (VRS) during the period 2006- 2009. The study reveals that takaful companies operating in GCC countries are more efficient than Malaysian operators that are encouraged to have aggressive marketing and wider distribution channels to capture more demand. |
| Keywords: | Takaful Industry, DEA, Efficiency, Malaysia, GCC |
| JEL: | C7 D8 |
| Date: | 2014–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-14&r=ara |
| By: | Alvaro Calzadilla; Manfred Wiebelt; Julian Blohmke; Gernot Klepper |
| Abstract: | “Desert Power 2050” is probably the world’s most ambitious strategy report towards the decarbonization of the power sector in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EUMENA). The report inspired by the Desertec vision aims at providing clean energy from MENA’s desert regions to the entire MENA region as well as exporting electricity to Europe. The report shows that an integrated EUMENA power system based on more than 90 percent renewables is technically feasible and economically viable. We use a combination of a global general equilibrium model (DART) and a multiplier analysis to evaluate the economic effects behind “Desert Power 2050” from a broader perspective, including not only the energy activities but also the repercussions in other sectors of the economies. The results show that the extent of the costs and benefits for both regions depend on the type of strategy adopted to finance the build-up of the power plants and the expected development of the levelised cost of electricity for the different technologies. Furthermore, the viability of a transition towards renewable energy as proposed by “Desert Power 2050” depends to a great extent on the international climate policy |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium, Multiplier Analysis, Renewable Energy, Climate Policy, Europe-North Africa-the Middle East |
| JEL: | C68 C67 Q42 Q58 O52 O55 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1891&r=ara |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); Fabien Prieur (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - Université Montpellier I - CNRS : UMR5474 - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) : UR1135 - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes [CIHEAM]); Klarizze Puzon (LAMETA - Laboratoire Montpelliérain d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - Université Montpellier I - CNRS : UMR5474 - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) : UR1135 - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes [CIHEAM]) |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic game to provide with a theory of Arab spring-type events. We consider two interacting groups, the elite vs the citizens, two political regimes, dictatorship vs a freer regime, the possibility to switch from the first to the second regime as a consequence of a revolution, and finally the opportunity, for the elite, to affect the citizens' decision through concession and/or repression strategies. In this framework, we provide a full characterization of the equilibrium of the political regime switching game. First, we emphasize the role of the direct switching cost of a revolution (for the citizens) and of the elite's self-preservation options. Under the concession strategy, when the switching cost is low, the elite can't avoid the political regime change. She optimally adapts to the overthrow of their political power by setting the rate of redistribution to the highest possible level, thereby extending the period during which she has full control on resources. This surprising result actually illustrates the role of the timing of events in these situations of interaction between the ruling elite and the people. When the direct switching is high, the elite can ultimately select the equilibrium outcome and adopts the opposite strategy, i.e. she chooses the lowest level of redistribution that allows her to stay in power forever. The same kind of results are obtained when the elite relies on repression to keep the citizens under control. Next, the equilibrium properties under a mix of repression and redistribution are analyzed. It is shown that in situations where neither repression (only) nor redistribution (only) protect the elite against the uprising of citizens, a subtle mixture of the two instruments is sufficient to make the dictatorship permanent. Based on our theoretical results, we finally examine the reason for such a large variety of decisions and outcomes during the Arab Spring events. |
| Keywords: | political transitions; revolution; natural resources; optimal timing; regime switching; dynamic game |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00935235&r=ara |
| By: | Seymen, Atilim; Misch, Florian |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the effects of temporary consumption tax cuts using firm-level data. As part of its countercyclical measures implemented during the recent global economic crisis, Tur-key temporarily lowered consumption taxes on selected durables. Our empirical strategy ex-ploits variation in firm exposure to the tax cut which allows us to control for unobserved indus-try- and region-specific shocks to address potential endogeneity. Using data on the change of sales of firms that benefited from this measure and of those that did not over different periods, we find positive and robust effects of consumption tax cuts on the change of firm sales which is consistent with theoretical predictions. -- |
| JEL: | E32 E62 H20 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79923&r=ara |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sbia, Rashid; HAMDI, Helmi; Ur Rehman, Ijaz |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates relationship between information communication technology (ICT), economic growth and electricity consumption using data of UAE over the period of 1975-2011.We have tested the unit properties of variables and the Bayer and Hanck combined cointegration approach for long run relationship. The innovative accounting approach is applied to test the robustness of the VECM Granger causality findings. Our empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration between the series. We find that ICT adds in electricity demand but electricity prices lower it. Income growth increases electricity consumption. The non-linear relationship between ICT and electricity consumption is an Inverted U-shaped. The causality results reveal that ICT and electricity prices Granger cause electricity demand. The feedback effect exists between economic growth and electricity consumption |
| Keywords: | ICT, Growth, Electricity, UAE |
| JEL: | O3 |
| Date: | 2014–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:53226&r=ara |
| By: | Alec Ian Gershberg (The New School) |
| Abstract: | Poor and insufficient school infrastructure negatively impacts student learning and schooling outcomes. Myriad factors have contributed to an infrastructure gap in the education sector in many countries – rapid increases in enrolments, poor maintenance and aging capital stocks, rural to urban migration, and inefficient government planning and school construction to name a few. Various forms of decentralization are likely to be involved both to improve governance and accountability and to foster innovation and cost saving in the school construction industry and investment and project cycle. This paper first discusses why the topic is interesting and worth considering; next we lay out the issues and considerations specific to educational infrastructure decentralization; we then connect the discussion to the broader infrastructure discussions in the other papers as well as to the education decentralization literature. We examine an illustrative case study in Egypt exemplifying both the typical centralization of a national school construction authority, and the reasons for countries to consider certain kinds of decentralization. The case also highlights that school construction reforms involving potential decentralization are a long slog dominated and driven by politics. We provide a framework for un-packaging and considering key components of the processes involved in service provision and some promising strategies relating to decentralization. We conclude with some insights for practitioners and others interested in advancing knowledge of the topic. |
| Date: | 2014–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper1412&r=ara |
| By: | Haggblade, Steven; Diallo, Boubacar; Staatz, John; Theriault, Veronique; Traoré, Abdramane |
| Abstract: | Food and social safety nets have a history as long as human civilization. In hunter gatherer societies, food sharing is pervasive. Group members who prove unlucky in the short run, hunting or foraging, receive food from other households in anticipation of reciprocal consideration at a later time (Smith 1988). With the emergence of the first large sedentary civilizations in the Middle East, administrative systems developed specifically around food storage and distribution. The ancient Egyptians, for example, stored food in public warehouses for distribution in times of famine. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:162439&r=ara |
| By: | Heni Boubaker; Nadia Sghaier |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new class of semiparametric generalized long memory model with FIA- PARCH errors (SEMIGARMA-FIAPARCH model) that extends the conventionnel GARMA model to incorporate nonlinear deterministic trend, in the mean equation, and to allow for time varying volatility, in the conditional variance equation. The parameters of this model are estimated in a wavelet domain. We provide an empirical application of this model to examine the dynamic of the stock market returns in six GCC countries. The empirical results show that the model proposed o¤ers an interesting framework to describe the seasonal long range dependence and the nonlinear deterministic trend in the return as well as persistence to shocks in the conditional volatiliy. We also compare its performance predictive to the traditional long memory model with FIAPARCH errors (FARMA-FIAPARCH model). The predictive results indicate that the model proposed out performs the FARMA-FIAPARCH model. |
| Keywords: | semiparametric generalized long memory process, FIAPARCH errors, wavelet do- main, stock market returns. |
| JEL: | C13 C22 C32 G15 |
| Date: | 2014–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-25&r=ara |