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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Isik Özel |
| Keywords: | regions; regional policy; interest intermediation |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:kfgxxx:p0053&r=ara |
| By: | Brixiova Zuzana; Balázs Égert; Thouraya Hadj Amor Essid |
| Abstract: | Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia face challenges competing on the global markets, as shown by their relatively low and stagnant export shares. The limited export competitiveness has hampered external demand, growth and employment. Applying, for the first time to North Africa, the stock-flow approach to the real equilibrium exchange rate, this paper evaluates the countries’ real exchange rate misalignments during the past three decades. While Egypt experienced periods of substantial misalignment, including in recent years, the exchange rates in Morocco and Tunisia have broadly reflected the underlying fundamentals. In all three countries structural factors are key to boosting exports, alongside of avoiding sizeable future misalignments. Intra-regional trade – both with North Africa and the rest of the continent – together with greater orientation to fast growing emerging markets could also raise countries’ external competitiveness. |
| Date: | 2013–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:991&r=ara |
| By: | Brixiova, Zuzana (African Development Bank); Égert, Balázs (OECD); Hadj Amor Essid, Thouraya (Monastir University) |
| Abstract: | Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia face challenges competing on the global markets, as shown by their relatively low and stagnant export shares. The limited export competitiveness has hampered external demand, growth and employment. Applying, for the first time to North Africa, the stock-flow approach to the real equilibrium exchange rate, this paper evaluates the countries' real exchange rate misalignments during the past three decades. While Egypt experienced periods of substantial misalignment, including in recent years, the exchange rates in Morocco and Tunisia have broadly reflected the underlying fundamentals. In all three countries structural factors are key to boosting exports, alongside of avoiding sizeable future misalignments. Intra-regional trade – both with North Africa and the rest of the continent – together with greater orientation to fast growing emerging markets could also raise countries' external competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | real exchange rate misalignment, stock-flow model, competitiveness, trade, employment, North Africa |
| JEL: | F3 F41 C5 O1 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7822&r=ara |
| By: | Resul Cesur; Naci H. Mocan |
| Abstract: | Turkey, which is a predominantly Muslim country, enacted an education law in 1997 which increased the compulsory secular education from five to eight years. We employ a unique nation-wide survey of adults in 2012 to investigate the impact of education on religiosity, lifestyles and political preferences by using exposure to the law as an instrument for schooling. The data set includes information about the extent of religiosity, lifestyle choices (e.g. modern, conservative, religious), ethnic background (e.g. Kurd, Turk, Arab) and the religious sect of the respondents (Sunni, Alevite Shii’te, etc.) The results show that the reform had a significant impact on middle school completion for both men and women, with stronger effects on women. An increase in education, generated by exposure to the law, decreases women’s propensity to identify themselves as religious. Education also lowers women’s tendency to wear a religious head cover (head scarf, religious turban or burka) and it increases their propensity to have a modern lifestyle. Education reduces women’s propensity to cast a vote for Islamic parties, but it has no impact on the propensity to vote. Education has no statistically significant impact on men’s religiosity or their tendency to vote for Islamic parties. The results are robust to controlling for indicators of individuals’ economic well-being as well as variations in empirical specification of the treatment by the law. Using a smaller version of the survey, conducted in 2008, we perform a variety of tests, which demonstrate that the results are not due to a cohort effect. Finally, we show that the effect of education on religiosity and voting preference is not working through migration, residential location or labor force participation. |
| JEL: | I21 I28 K4 Z1 Z12 Z18 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19769&r=ara |
| By: | Herr, Hansjörg; Zeynep, Sonat M. |
| Abstract: | After the 2001 crisis, Turkey continued to pursue a radical market-oriented reform strategy that followed the philosophy of the Washington Consensus. By the early 2000s the government had already liberalised the capital account, privatised many banks and enterprises, and kick-started the processes of financialisation. The government had also withdrawn from redistribution and social justice policies. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the post-2001 period was relatively high, but it was a “jobless” growth caused by substantial productivity increases generated largely by intensifying the work process rather than by technological advancements. Today, Turkey is still characterised as a country with very high income inequality. The economic growth in the post-2001 period benefited the society very unequally. This type of growth regime harbours great economic risks and is socially unjust. The development of Turkey is vulnerable thanks to the high current account deficit, high currency mismatch particularly in the enterprise sector, high income inequality, high unemployment, and an unsatisfactory development of the industrial sector despite some limited successes. We recommend a new development regime with selective capital controls, a balanced current account, an active industrial policy by the government, stronger unions and employer associations combined with coordinated wage bargaining on the sectoral level, and, last but not least, redistributive policies aiming to achieve a more equal income distribution. -- |
| JEL: | E02 O11 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:88606&r=ara |
| By: | Stephanie Jones (Associate Professor, Organizational Behavior, Maastricht School of Management); Mohamed Mostafa Saad (DBA Candidate, based in Egypt) |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2013/32&r=ara |
| By: | Jenkins, Stephen P.; Sirma Demir Șeker |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence about poverty trends in Turkey between 2003 and 2011 and the factors accounting for them. We give particular attention to issues of statistical inference, and the choice of the poverty line and the poverty measure. Our robust conclusion is that absolute poverty declined rapidly between 2003 and 2008 but fell only slightly between 2008 and 2011. Changes in relative poverty were negligible throughout. Using poverty decomposition methods, we argue that the rate of decline in the absolute poverty rate is largely accounted for by changes in the rate of national economic growth rather than by changes in the income distribution or by changes in the distribution of poverty risks across various subgroups within the population or in population composition. |
| Date: | 2013–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2013-29&r=ara |
| By: | Bouoiyour, Jamal; Selmi, Refk |
| Abstract: | How does inflation uncertainty interact with inflation rate? The purpose of this article is to assess this question in Egypt in a wavelets transform framework. We investigate the direction of causality in the relationship inflation-inflation uncertainty by combining component GARCH model, wavelets decomposition and scale-by-scale nonlinear causality test. We find a strong evidence in favor of Friedman-ball hypothesis in both time domain and the different frequencies. This study succeeds to resolve the inconsistencies and to point a robust nonlinear effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty, which is more intense at high frequency bands than at low ones. We attribute this result to the complexity in predicting how strongly and how quickly prices will respond to monetary policy, the asymmetry between inflation booms and recessions, the incidence of exogenous shocks, the co-movement of permanent shocks with inflation and the downward expectations of monetary authorities. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, inflation uncertainty, GARCH, wavelets, nonlinear causality. |
| JEL: | C1 C6 E3 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52414&r=ara |
| By: | Ayadi, Lotfi; Benjamin, Nancy; Bensassi, Sami; Raballand, Gael |
| Abstract: | This paper uses mirror statistics and research in the field to estimate the magnitude of Tunisia's informal trade with Libya and Algeria. The aim is to assess the scale of this trade and to evaluate the amount lost in taxes and duties as a result as well as to assess the local impact in terms of income generation. The main findings show that within Tunisian trade as a whole, informal trade accounts for only a small share (5 percent of total imports). However, informal trade represents an important part of the Tunisia's bilateral trade with Libya and Algeria, accounting for more than half the official trade with Libya and more than total official trade with Algeria. The main reasons behind this large-scale informal trade are differences in the levels of subsidies on either side of the border as well as the varying tax regimes. Tackling informal trade is not simply a question of stepping up the number of controls and sanctions, because differences in prices lead to informal trade (and to an increase in corruption levels among border officials) even in cases where the sanctions are severe. As local populations depend on cross-border trade for income generation, they worry about local authorities taking action against cross-border trade. At the same time, customs officials are concerned about the risk of local protests if they strictly enforce the tariff regimes in place. This issue will become even more significant if fuel prices in Tunisia rise again as a result of a reduction in the levels of domestic subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Trade Law,Economic Theory&Research,Trade Policy,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2013–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6731&r=ara |
| By: | Ncube, Mthuli; Brixiova Zuzana |
| Abstract: | This paper examines macroeconomic trends, drivers and impact of remittances in Africa. First, it documents the increasing share of remittances relative to other foreign capital flows to Africa, distribution of remittance inflows across countries, and some key properties. This is followed by some analysis of the macroeconomic drivers of remittances in recipient countries, such as the level of income, inflation and nominal exchange rate depreciation. Specifically, remittances are positively impacted by higher income, but deterred by an unstable macroeconomic environment, pointing to the investment motive in remitting to Africa. The paper also examines the role of remittances in funding Africa’s external balances. Finally, drawing on the case of Egypt, the paper shows the positive impact that rising remittances can have on public debt sustainability. |
| Date: | 2013–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:996&r=ara |