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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Mavuş, Merve; Oduncu, Arif; Güneş, Didem |
| Abstract: | Due to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have started to establish Free Trade Agreements (FTA). In this context, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) have decided to establish bilateral Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). This note focuses on the impacts of this partnership on Turkish economy. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to analytically analyze the economic impacts of the TTIP on Turkey by differentiating according to Turkey’s inclusion in and exclusion from the TTIP. By using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and a general equilibrium model, the effects of various scenarios on GDP is studied within the framework of four-regional-consolidation, the EU, the U.S., Turkey and rest of the world. Obtained results show that Turkey could be in a gain of 35 billion USD if Turkey is included in TTIP compared to if she is excluded from the TTIP. Moreover, Turkey’s inclusion in TTIP is not only in favor of Turkey but also in favor of the EU and the USA in terms of higher GDP growth rates. |
| Keywords: | TTIP, Turkey |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:51900&r=ara |
| By: | I. Atiyas; P. Dogan |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:33655&r=ara |
| By: | Michael, Bryane; Apostoloski, Nenad |
| Abstract: | The wealth management industry in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) represents a roughly $800 billion opportunity. Yet, tapping this opportunity will require new strategies by the wirehouses looking to penetrate into this market. In this paper, we argue that Middle-Eastern policymakers and bankers will need to develop an indigenous wealth management industry which keeps the super-wealthy’s investments at home. Developing a local national wealth management industry requires letting in foreign competition, changing banking and securities laws, and growing local companies whose share are worth buying. We show why Turkey has succeeded in growing a nationally and internationally competitive wealth management industry – whereas Saudi Arabia’s remains less than ideal. We also describe how policymakers can help brings the billions abroad home by making business easier, reforming banking and securities law, and forcing local banks to become more efficient. We also describe how foreign wealth management firms can increase their assets under management in the region. These multi-trillion dollar mammoths should use their negotiating power to open MENA markets and grow local multi-millionaires. |
| Keywords: | wealth management, MENA, middle east, high net worth individuals |
| JEL: | G15 G23 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52069&r=ara |
| By: | KIZILCA, F. Kemal |
| Abstract: | This study explores the effect of religion on female labor force participation (FLFP) in a Muslim country, Turkey, by using the information in the consumption data as a signal of secularity. A household is categorized as secular, if its members report that they consume goods that contradict the conservative interpretations of Islam. This information is then used in FLFP estimations. The analysis is carried out for married and single females, separately. The results show that, living in a secular household has a positive and highly significant effect on the probability of FLFP in the urban areas. Secularity is also associated with a reduction in unpaid work, which is the most widespread form of female employment in rural areas in Turkey. For the single females, whose mean age is lower, the estimations provide some weaker evidence on the positive effect of secularity on the probability of educational participation, while no significant direct effect on paid work is found. |
| Keywords: | Female labor force participation, religion |
| JEL: | J16 Z12 |
| Date: | 2013–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:51832&r=ara |
| By: | Şule Akkoyunlu |
| Abstract: | Migration not only contributes to development through financial remittances, but also through flows of knowledge and through the diffusion of social, cultural and political norms and values. In fact, these more intangible contributions are more appreciated during economic and financial crises, as financial remittances become unstable or decrease in those circumstances. This paper, therefore, addresses the effect of migration on women’s empowerment in Turkey. The number of women in parliament in Turkey is chosen as a gauge of women’s empowerment and is explained by the emigration rate, the relative education of women to men, and a measure of democracy. Utilization of data over six decades from 1960 until 2011 gives the possibility that these series can be spuriously correlated. Therefore, the paper addresses the issue of spurious correlation in an analytical way. Spurious correlation is the risk of linking the share of women in parliament, for example, to the emigration rate when in fact there is no association. This study adopts the bounds testing procedure as a method to determine and to avoid spurious correlation. The results of bounds testing gives clear-cut evidence that women’s empowerment, the share of women in parliament in the present context, is related to the emigration rate, the relative education of women and to a measure of democracy. The bounds-testing procedure is replicated for emigration flows by destination country groups such as European and other core OECD countries, Arab countries, and Russia and CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) countries. Again, it is found that the share of women in parliament is related to the country groups with the largest effect in European and core OECD countries. The results are robust for the inclusion of asylum seekers and refugees in the emigration data. These results have important policy implications for sending as well as for destination countries, implications which are discussed in the paper. |
| Keywords: | Emigration, Social Remittances, Women's Empowerment, Women share in parliament, Turkey |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2013/77&r=ara |
| By: | Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim |
| Abstract: | We use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration in order to investigate the short and long-run relationship between per capita CO2 emission, GDP, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and trade openness for Tunisia during the period 1980-2009. The Fisher-statistic for cointegration is established when CO2 emission is defined as a dependent variable. The stability of coefficients in the long and short-run is examined. Short-run Granger causality suggests that there is a one way causality relationship from economic growth and trade openness (exports and imports) to emissions, whereas there is no causality running from renewable and non-renewable energy consumption to emissions. The results from the long-run relationship suggest that non-renewable energy consumption contributes positively in explaining CO2 emission (for both models), whereas renewable energy affects CO2 emission negatively (for the model with exports). The contribution of trade openness is positive and statistically significant in the long-run. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) that assumes an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and output is not supported in the long-run. This means that Tunisia has not yet reached the required level of per capita GDP to get an inverted U-shaped EKC. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve; Renewable and non-renewable energy; Trade openness; Autoregressive distributed lag; Tunisia. |
| JEL: | C22 F14 Q42 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2013–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52127&r=ara |
| By: | Roger Owen |
| Abstract: | This essay is a comparison of Egypt's three 19th century statistical regimes, with particular emphasis on the third established by the British before WW1, and culminating in the holding of the 1917 census. It is argued that the organizer of this census used it self-consciously to encourage the production of statistical data as an essential tool of modern government. He also provided officials with a method of integrating their findings through the use of a national model based on the balance between population and resources. Foucault's notion of governmentality is deployed to provide a framework within which to understand the central processes at work. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:47131&r=ara |
| By: | Pejman Abedifar (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - Université de Limoges : EA1088 - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société); Philip Molyneux (Business School - Bangor University, Bangor); Amine Tarazi (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - Université de Limoges : EA1088 - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates risk and stability features of Islamic banking using a sample of 553 banks from 24 countries between 1999 and 2009. Small Islamic banks that are leveraged or based in countries with predominantly Muslim populations have lower credit risk than conventional banks. In terms of insolvency risk, small Islamic banks also appear more stable. Moreover, we find little evidence that Islamic banks charge rents to their customers for offering Shariá compliant financial products. Our results also show that loan quality of Islamic banks is less responsive to domestic interest rates compared to conventional banks. |
| Keywords: | Islamic banking, Islamic finance, bank risk, credit risk, stability, insolvency, Zscore, rent-seeking. |
| Date: | 2012–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00915115&r=ara |
| By: | Stel, Nora (Maastricht School of Management); Naudé, Wim (Maastricht School of Management) |
| Abstract: | The instability and informality that characterize hybrid political orders and its effects on entrepreneurs remains largely unexplored in the scholarly literatures. In this paper we provide initial findings from the case of entrepreneurs' access to electricity in Lebanon. Using quantitative and qualitative methods we find that political connections significantly influence the investment decisions of entrepreneurs and the performance of their firms. In general, a hybrid political order imposes a 'tax' on entrepreneurship by channelling entrepreneurial talent into lobbying and bribery; by reinforcing male and family-owned dominance in business; and by skewing investment decisions. Specifically, we find that family firms whose entrepreneurs engage in bribery, and who obtain government contracts alleviate electricity problems and perform better. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, development, political economy, electricity, infrastructure, Middle East, Lebanon, hybrid political order |
| JEL: | L26 M48 O17 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7795&r=ara |
| By: | António AFONSO,; Mohamed AYADI,; Sourour RAMZI |
| Abstract: | We analyze the productivity changes in basic and secondary education for 24 governorates in Tunisia over the period 2004-2008. In methodological term, we employ the Malmquist index, to estimate changes in total factor productivity which can be decomposed into two main components namely, technological change and technical efficiency change. We use four input variables (number of teacher per students, number of classes per students, number of schools per inhabitants, and expenditure in education per student) and two output variables measuring success rate of baccalaureate exam and rate of non-doubling in the 9th year. Our results show that on average, changes in TFP growth during the period 2004-2008 has been more linked to the changes in technology. The managerial efficiency does not have an important effect on the variation of TFP change. Generally, productivity is associated with technological innovations |
| Keywords: | basic and secondary education, productivity change, efficiency change, DEA, Malmquist index. |
| JEL: | C61 D24 I21 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp192013&r=ara |
| By: | Roger Owen |
| Abstract: | The growth and transformation of Middle Eastern manufacturing industry has been little studied for the period before the advent of tariff autonomy, and thus protectionism, in the early 1930s The reasons for this are various but must have much to do with the many difficult problems involved. There is an obvious lack of data, particularly about the activities of the craft or small-scale sector which, even to this day, is regularly under-counted by government statisticians. There are also serious problems of definition which hage generally been ignored by the vast majority of economic historians who remain content to analyse manufacturing activity in terms of such simple dichotomies as modern/factory/capitalist versus traditional/workshop/pre-capitalist, a method which not only masks the fact that there are a whole range of activities which do not fall into such apparently neat categories but also — to introduce the major theme of this essay — makes it impossible to examine the complex interrelationship between plants of different size and degree of capitalisation. Finally, much of what passes for a ducussion of manufacturing activity has, in fact, got muddled with the much larger debate about the whole process of industrialisation, about whether particular areas of the Middle East could have developed their own industrial base before 1930, and about why they might have been prevented from doing so. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:47121&r=ara |
| By: | ARSLAN, Yavuz; CERİTOĞLU, Evren; KANIK, Birol |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the effects of age structure dynamics of population on the housing demand in Turkey. The critical question is how the housing demand moves in the environment of positive population growth with declining rate and aging population. We use TurkStat Household Budget Survey to determine the link between household housing demand and household age cohorts. We obtain housing demand for each age cohorts and long term housing demand for Turkey by utilizing TurkStat population forecasts. Estimation results indicate that age structure of population has a notable effect on the growth of housing demand besides population growth. The results show housing demand will increase 1.48 percent annually on average from 2009 to 2050 where 1.08 percent of the increase will be contributed by population growth and the rest of 0.40 percent will be derived by the change in age structure of the population. |
| Keywords: | Housing demand; Demographics; Home ownership |
| JEL: | J11 R21 R30 |
| Date: | 2013–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:52013&r=ara |
| By: | Didem Gunes; Merve Mavus; Arif Oduncu |
| Abstract: | [TR] Dunya Ticaret Orgutu (DTO) kapsaminda gerceklestirilen cok tarafli ticaret muzakerelerinin sonuclandirilamamasinin bir yansimasi olarak bircok ulkenin serbest ticaret anlasmalarina (STA) yoneldigi gorulmektedir. Bu gelismeler paralelinde, AB ve ABD aralarinda ticaret ve yatirim ortakligi olusturulmasi kararini almistir. Soz konusu girisimin Turkiye ekonomisi uzerindeki etkileri bu calismanin konusu olusturmaktadir. Bildigimiz kadariyla AB-ABD arasindaki STA’nin Turkiye uzerindeki ekonomik etkilerini Turkiye’nin surece dahil olup olmamasi ayrimini yaparak analitik olarak inceleyen herhangi bir calisma yoktur. Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) veri tabani ve genel denge modeli kullanilarak AB, ABD, Turkiye ve diger ulkelerden olusan dortlu bolgesel toplulastirma cercevesinde cesitli senaryolarin milli gelir uzerindeki etkileri calisilmistir. Elde edilen sonuclar, Turkiye’nin AB-ABD STA’sina taraf olmasi durumu ile olmamasi durumu arasinda GSYH’de yaklasik 35 milyar dolarlik bir farkin olabilecegini gostermektedir. Ayrica calismada, Turkiye’nin surece dahil olmasinin sadece Turkiye’nin yararina olmadigi belirtilmis ve bununla birlikte; AB ile ABD ekonomileri GSYH buyume oranlarinin, sadece AB-ABD STA’sinin olusturuldugu duruma gore daha yuksek olacagi gosterilmistir. [EN] Due to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have started to establish Free Trade Agreements (FTA). In this context, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) have decided to establish bilateral trade and investment partnership. This note focuses on the impacts of this partnership on Turkish economy. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to analytically analyze the economic impacts of the EU-US FTA on Turkey by differentiating according to Turkey’s inclusion in and exclusion from the FTA. By using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and a general equilibrium model, the effects of various scenarios on GDP is studied within the framework of four-regional-consolidation, the EU, the U.S., Turkey and rest of the world. Obtained results show that Turkey could be in a gain of 35 billion USD if Turkey is included in FTA compared to if she is excluded from the FTA. Moreover, Turkey’s inclusion in FTA is not only in favor of Turkey but also in favor of the EU and the USA in terms of higher GDP growth rates. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1330&r=ara |
| By: | Antonio Cortese |
| Abstract: | Pushed by the spirit of the âMegà li Idèaâ (the Great Idea), Greece launched a military offensive against Turkey in the attempt to incorporate the Western coastal territories of Asia Minor occupied for centuries by âGreekâ communities. This military undertaking resulted in the so‐called Asia Minor Catastrophe, in which Greece was forced to accept a compulsory exchange of populations. The paper sheds light on the geographical areas in Turkey from where about 1,300,000 people were forced to leave as well as the Greek territories which hosted them; the work also looks into the consequences derived, with a lens on the demographic impact and the urbanization process triggered in the Hellenic capital since then. |
| Keywords: | Migrazioni internazionali (International Migration), Scambio forzato di popolazioni (Compulsory Exchange of populations), Processo di urbanizzazione (Urbanization Process). |
| JEL: | F22 F53 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0185&r=ara |