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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | Aikaterini Kavallari (LEI, part of Wageningen UR); Marie-Luise Rau (LEI, part of Wageningen UR); Martine Rutten (LEI, part of Wageningen UR) |
| Abstract: | This report presents the simulations of deeper economic integration in the Euro-Mediterranean area by applying the general equilibrium model MAGNET. The scenarios are conducted in order to provide insight about how growth in North Africa, specifically Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, could potentially be promoted. The focus is on the agri-food sectors, which are investigated in the context of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, framed within the negotiations of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the European Union and respectively Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. The report also refers to Turkey, being a significant trading partner in the Mediterranean basin. Four scenarios are analysed in the horizon 2020, by paying special attention to key challenges such as non-tariff measure removal, world food price rising, productivity gains, and food waste mitigation. |
| Keywords: | Economic integration, agricultural trade, modelling tools, food security |
| JEL: | F15 C68 D58 Q17 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc84800&r=ara |
| By: | Nour, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed (Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Khartoum University, and UNU-MERIT/MGSoG) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs both the descriptive and comparative approaches and uses the definition of knowledge and knowledge indicators used in the literature to examine the existence and development of the knowledge economy in the Arab region. We fill the gap in the Arab literature and present a more comprehensive analysis of the development of knowledge indicators in the Arab region. Our findings support the first hypothesis that the knowledge economy exists in the Arab region and coincides with a substantial knowledge gap compared to other world regions. Our results corroborate the second hypothesis concerning the variation in knowledge indicators, according to the structure of the economy in the Arab region, and support the third hypothesis concerning the poor and slow progress in the trend of knowledge - related indicators in the Arab region. Therefore, it is essential for the Arab region to enhance the knowledge economy and indicators to achieve economic development in the Arab region. |
| Keywords: | Knowledge economy, tacit knowledge, codified knowledge, knowledge index, Arab region |
| JEL: | O10 O11 O30 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2013015&r=ara |
| By: | Nour, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed (Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Khartoum University, and UNU-MERIT/MGSoG) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs both the descriptive and comparative approaches and uses the definition of systems of innovation used in the literature to examine the existence, characteristics and implications of the regional systems of innovation in the Arab region. We examine three hypotheses, that the regional systems of innovation exist but are characterized by serious weaknesses in the Arab region compared with other world regions, that the structure of the economy has a significant effect in the performance of innovation systems in the Arab region, and that the poor Arab systems of innovation have serious implications in the Arab region. We explain two common characteristics of Arab regional systems of innovation concerning poor subsystems of education, S&T, R&D and ICT institutions in the Arab region and concentration of R&D activities within public and universities sectors and small contribution of the private sector in R&D activities. We find that the major implications are the poor performance of the Arab region in terms of S&T indicators, competitiveness indicators, technology achievement index and poor integration in the knowledge economy index. Therefore, it is essential for the Arab region to enhance the institutions of higher education, S&T, R&D and ICT to build the Arab regional systems of innovation and to achieve economic development in the Arab region. |
| Keywords: | Education, S&T, R&D, Systems of innovation, economic structure, Arab region |
| JEL: | O10 O11 O30 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2013012&r=ara |
| By: | Mohamed Ben Abdallah (Tunis El-Manar University, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Tunis (FSEGT), Laboratoire d'Intégration Economique Internationale (LIEI)); Abdelkader Ait El Mekki (National School of Agriculture in Meknes); Gamal Siam (Faculty of Agriculture at Cairo University) |
| Abstract: | This report presents the macro-effects of deep trade integration between the EU and respectively Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Overall, the simulation results from both a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and Social Accounting Matrixes (SAM) analyses show that further trade liberalisation leads to a general gain for the countries under review, with the effect being more pronounced for combining tariff elimination with Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) reduction. |
| Keywords: | Economic integration, agricultural trade, modelling tools, food security |
| JEL: | F15 C68 D57 Q17 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc84801&r=ara |
| By: | Nour, Samia Satti Osman Mohamed (Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Khartoum University, and UNU-MERIT/MGSoG) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use the data from the firm survey (2002) at the micro level and some recent and update current secondary data at the macro level to examine the importance (impacts) of tacit and codified sources of knowledge at firm and aggregate levels respectively. Our results at the macro level are consistent with the notion that tacit knowledge is complementary with schooling, while tacit knowledge and codified knowledge are positively correlated with GDP. Moreover, at the macro/aggregate level, our results show a significant complementary relationship between codified knowledge and the number of Full Time Equivalent Researchers (FTER) and between them and publications, cooperation and technology (patents). Our findings at the micro level indicate positive correlations between tacit knowledge, ICT, training, profit, output and output diversification. In addition, our findings illustrate that tacit skill/knowledge inside the firm increases with market size: total investment, capital, firm size and age. Our results are consistent with the findings in the knowledge literature and are also useful to indicate the importance of good education at both the micro and macro levels. |
| Keywords: | Tacit knowledge, codified knowledge, economic growth, Arab Gulf countries |
| JEL: | O10 O11 O30 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2013016&r=ara |
| By: | Akçomakn Semih (TEKPOL, Middle East Technical University, and UNU-MERIT); Akdeve, Erdal (School of Management, Yıldırım Beyazıt University); Findik, Derya (TEKPOL, Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a novel taxonomy of firms based on specialization versus diversification in production and markets. Firms may choose to specialize on few production activities or alternatively may build expertise in many activities. There is an accompanying decision when firms sell their products: whether to serve few or many markets. We argue that the location on the specialization-diversification spectrum significantly affects how firms manage innovation. For a sample of 90 innovator ICT firms in Ankara we find that cooperation structure, sources of innovation and funding of R&D display statistically significant different patterns according to the specialization-diversification taxonomy. |
| Keywords: | management of innovation, core competency, expertise building, R&D, ICT |
| JEL: | O32 L22 L86 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2013024&r=ara |
| By: | Verónica Frisancho; Kala Krishna; Sergey Lychagin; Cemile Yavas |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide some evidence that repeat taking of competitive exams may reduce the impact of background disadvantages on educational outcomes. Using administrative data on the university entrance exam in Turkey we estimate cumulative learning between the first and the nth attempt while controlling for selection into retaking in terms of observed and unobserved characteristics. We find large learning gains measured in terms of improvements in the exam scores, especially among less advantaged students. |
| JEL: | C13 C38 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19663&r=ara |
| By: | Vladimir Hlasny (Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Korea); Paolo Verme (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | By all accounts, income inequality in Egypt is low and had been declining during the decade that preceded the 2011 revolution. As the Egyptian revolution was partly motivated by claims of social injustice and inequalities, this seems at odds with a low level of income inequality. Moreover, while income inequality shows a decline between 2000 and 2009, the World Values Surveys indicate that the aversion to inequality has significantly increased during the same period and for all social groups. This paper utilizes a range of recently developed statistical techniques to assess the true value of income inequality in the presence of a range of possible measurement issues related to top incomes, including item and unit non-response, outliers and extreme observations, and atypical top income distributions. The analysis finds that correcting for unit non-response significantly increases the estimate of inequality by just over 1 percentage point, that the Egyptian distribution of top incomes follows rather closely the Pareto distribution, and that the inverted Pareto coefficient is located around median values when compared with 418 household surveys worldwide. Hence, income inequality in Egypt is confirmed to be low while the distribution of top incomes is not atypical compared with what Pareto had predicted and compared with other countries in the world. This would suggest that the increased frustration with income inequality voiced by Egyptians and measured by the World Values Surveys is driven by factors other than income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Top incomes, inequality measures, survey nonresponse, Pareto distribution, parametric estimation, Egypt. |
| JEL: | D31 D63 N35 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2013-303&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | Sudan faces difficult challenges in the conduct of its monetary policy following South Sudan’s secession in 2011. Sudan’s economic conditions deteriorated rapidly after this permanent shock. The fiscal deficit widened owing to the loss of oil revenues and delays in fiscal adjustment. Monetization of the fiscal deficit led to high inflation, which reached 47.8 percent in March 2013. An understanding of the effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables (such as output, employment and prices) and the channels through which these effects are transmitted is critical for effective policy formulation and timely implementation, and for ensuring macro-financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Monetary transmission mechanism;Monetary policy;Taxation;Gold;Natural resources;Global competitiveness;Reserves adequacy;Selected issues;Sudan; |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/320&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | KEY ISSUES Context: The July 2011 secession of South Sudan led to the buildup of large economic imbalances in Sudan. The authorities responded in June 2012 with a comprehensive package of corrective measures, which laid the ground for a much-needed adjustment process. The reform process was expected to continue in 2013, through a second package of measures, which the authorities recently put together, but has yet to be implemented. The March 2013 agreement with South Sudan on oil and security matters is offering an opportunity to continue the adjustment process by implementing bold reforms to address the post-secession challenges. Outlook and risks: Risks are mainly to the downside and risks include domestic political instability and volatile security conditions, notably tensions at the border with South Sudan. Strong and steady implementation of reforms is crucial for improving macroeconomic stability and enhancing medium-term growth prospects. Focus of the Article IV discussions: Discussions focused on: (i) near-term policies for restoring macroeconomic stability; and (ii) a medium-term strategy for rebuilding the economy and implementing policies for sustained and inclusive growth, higher employment, and poverty reduction. Policy recommendations: Action is needed on the following fronts: (i) fiscal adjustment grounded in a sound medium-term framework, including a gradual phase-out of fuel and wheat subsidies, and strengthening of social safety nets thus making way for higher quality spending; (ii) a tighter monetary stance to address high inflation and exchange rate pressures; (iii) unification of the exchange rates and markets together with further exchange rate flexibility; and (iv) further liberalization of the economy and improvement in the business environment in order to boost private sector-led growth. Staff-Monitored Program: Strong corrective policy measures to address the large economic imbalances and reforming the economy are needed to serve as the basis for a successor staff-monitored program. Debt relief: Relief is predicated on reaching out to creditors, normalizing relations with international financial institutions, and establishing a track record of cooperation with the IMF on policies and payments. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Political economy;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;External debt;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Multiple currency practices;Exchange rate regimes;Financial sector;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Sudan; |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/317&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | This interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) was prepared following the secession of South Sudan in July 2011. It was approved by the Council of Ministers as well as by Parliament on 20 July 2012, respectively. The preparation of this I-PRSP was initiated before the secession of South Sudan. Since then, the governance structures for the new Sudan have remained the same, based on the 2005 Interim National Constitution (INC) that underpinned the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Until the signature of the CPA, Sudan had experienced an alternation of civilian and military governments and two protracted North-South wars that took a heavy toll on human life and economic resources. The leadership in Sudan has initially been preoccupied with the difficult negotiations of the economic and political relations with South Sudan, but began in June 2012 to deal with the implications of the massive revenue shocks caused by the loss of the share of the revenues from oil production in South Sudan. The Sudanese government’s attention was also captured by internal conflicts and threats of new ones in several areas of the new country; the situation is being aggravated by the urgent resettlement and reintegration of millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from past conflicts in the territory and international refugees from conflict-affected neighboring countries. In this complex environment, the authorities are seeking to normalize Sudan’s relations with the international development community, while opening up access to post-conflict recovery and development assistance, including relief from its onerous external burden. |
| Keywords: | Governance;Public sector;Financial management;Education;Gender equality;Health care;Economic growth;Employment;Private sector;Agricultural sector;Infrastructure;Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers;Sudan; |
| Date: | 2013–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/319&r=ara |
| By: | Margolis, David N. (Paris School of Economics); Miotti, Luis (University of Paris 13); Mouhoud, El Mouhoub (Université Paris-Dauphine); Oudinet, Joël (University of Paris 13) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the distributional impact of remittances across two regions of Algerian emigration (Nedroma and Idjeur) using an original survey we conducted of 1,200 households in 2011. Remittances and especially the role played by foreign pensions decrease the Gini index by nearly 4 % for the two Algerian regions, with the effect in Idjeur being twice as large as Nedroma. At the same time, they help reduce poverty by nearly 13 percentage points. Remittances have a strong positive impact on very poor families in Idjeur but much less in Nedroma, where poor families suffer from a “double loss” due to the absence of their migrants and the fact that the latter do not send money home. |
| Keywords: | remittances, migration, poverty, inequality, Algeria |
| JEL: | F24 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7747&r=ara |
| By: | Chiny, Faycal |
| Abstract: | The analysis of correlations forms the basis of portfolio diversification and the lower the correlation between two assets the greater the potential benefit to be obtained by diversification. In the national context this typically involves the analyses of the correlation between the returns on national stock market sectors. But internationally this task turns to be more difficult because we have to analyze the relationships between returns on different and distant international markets. Erb, Harvey and Viskant (1994) and Longin and Solnik (1995) have shown that these correlations vary over time according to phases in the economic cycles. We will analyze at the international level the relationship between correlation and volatility of returns of stock indexes of 4 stock markets: Morocco, France, U.S.A and Japan from January 01, 2002 to December 31, 2012. We then investigate possible factors that cause the time variation in these correlations. |
| Keywords: | Time-Varying Correlations, diversification strategy, financial markets |
| JEL: | C22 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2013–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:51561&r=ara |