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on MENA - Middle East and North Africa |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Education - Education For All Secondary Education Tertiary Education Teaching and Learning Education - Primary Education |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16049&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank; Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor - Labor Standards Work and Working Conditions Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Health Nutrition and Population |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:15965&r=ara |
| By: | Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Ermişoğlu, Ergun |
| Abstract: | The global crisis of 2008-09 resulted in major reverberations in virtually every financial market around the world. The Turkish financial sector has been among the very few global financial markets which passed global financial crisis turmoil without major damage and succeeded to recover quickly after the crisis. This paper aims to explore the underlying reasons for this success of the Turkish financial sector, which is predominantly composed of the banking sector. The improved macroeconomic conditions in the country, the increased fiscal discipline of the government, the soundness and the strong growth potential of the banking sector were among the most important causes of this development. |
| Keywords: | Global financial crisis, Turkish financial sector, foreign entry |
| JEL: | G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50503&r=ara |
| By: | Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Ermişoğlu, Ergun |
| Abstract: | The Eurozone debt crisis is an ongoing financial crisis that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to rollover their government debt without the help of third parties. The reasons for the Eurozone debt crisis can be summarized in three groups: (i) Errors on the structure of the Monetary Union, (ii) Macroeconomic instabilities among the monetary union, (iii) Problems on the financial system. In this paper, after discussing the origins of the crisis, we summarize the measures taken against the crisis and then describe the current stage of the crisis. Finally, we focus on the effects of the crisis on the Turkish economy. Turkey is affected by the crisis via three channels: trade, finance and expectations channel. We focus especially on the trade and finance channel for the scope of this paper. We show that these effects have remained rather limited for Turkey with the help of the strong macroeconomic and financial structure. |
| Keywords: | Eurozone debt crisis, Optimum Currency Area, Turkish economy |
| JEL: | F15 F34 F36 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50501&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Education - Education For All Education - Early Childhood Development Teaching and Learning Education - Primary Education |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16066&r=ara |
| By: | Cem Cebi; Ali Askin Culha |
| Abstract: | This study aims to investigate the e¤ects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and foreign trade balance in Turkey for the period of 2002.I - 2012.IV within a structural VAR framework. The analysis shows that a positive shock to government spending tends to induce real exchange rate appreciation and deterioration in trade balance. We also ?nd that composition of the government spending matters. While shocks to government non-wage consumption generate an appreciation in the real exchange rate and worsening of the trade balance, e¤ects of government investment shocks remain insignificant. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that shocks to government spending are associated with a rise in taxes, which points to the existence of a spending- driven tax adjustment process in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Government Spending Shocks, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Balance, SVAR |
| JEL: | E62 H30 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1337&r=ara |
| By: | Ageli, Mohammed Moosa |
| Abstract: | The present paper examine the nexus between road traffic accident (RTA) and some relevant variables in Saudi Arabia over the period 1971- 2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag ARDL model (Pesaran and Shin, 1999) for co-integration in Saudi Arabia, with the co-integration test. Results show that the variables are co-integrated in Saudi Arabia, moreover, the overall Granger causality results present that road traffic accidents, population and GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license are Granger-causes each other in Saudi Arabia. With these findings, we affirm that there is a strong relationship and effect between road traffic accidents and its population, GDP, road mails, registered vehicles, and the number of driver license. The findings suggest that the ECTt-1 coefficients are negative signed and statistically significant in all VECMs, implying that there is bi-directional causality between the variables of interest in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Road Traffic Accident, Granger Causality, (ARDL) Model, Co-integration Test, Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | O11 R4 |
| Date: | 2013–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50616&r=ara |
| By: | Ageli, Mohammed |
| Abstract: | In this paper we have to explore the Displacement Effect in Saudi Arabia during the period (1970-2012) for real oil GDP and Non Oil GDP. We used a method as a time series econometrics techniques to examine how far the Displacement Effect validity can be applied in Saudi economy, by Using time series annual data for the periods during (1970 to 2012), (1970 to 1990) and (1991 to 2012). Three distinct time series techniques have been applied. The results obtained from the analyses find that the Peacock and Wiseman Version of Wagnerian proposition can explain the growth of government in Saudi Arabia, which holds for both the oil and non-oil income cases, and we have a structural break in the data. The findings also note that the existence of strong causality for Peacock and Wiseman Version of Wagner‟s law in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Displacement Effect, Co-integration, Error Correction Model, Augmented Dickey Fuller, Government Expenditure, Economic Growth, Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | H50 O11 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50565&r=ara |
| By: | Birol Kanik; Enes Sunel; Temel Taskin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the Beveridge curve and the matching function in Turkey. The analysis illustrates that the empirical Beveridge curve for the 2005 : M1-2013 : M2 period posits a negative relationship between unemployment and vacancies. When the sample period is divided into sub-periods around the recent global financial crisis, the unemployment-vacancies pairs are found to follow a counterclockwise trajectory (around the empirical Beveridge curve) during the transition from trough into the recovery. The estimation of the matching function implies that the congestion externality of unemployment on job finding is in line with the literature. Disaggregation of the Beveridge curve suggests that recent labor market reforms were beneficial for the targeted employment groups. |
| Keywords: | Beveridge curve, unemployment, matching function |
| JEL: | J20 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1335&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Economic Theory and Research Environmental Economics and Policies Energy - Energy Production and Transportation |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16088&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Air Quality and Clean Air Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Transport Economics Policy and Planning Environmental Economics and Policies Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Transport |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16086&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Gender - Gender and Development Agricultural Knowledge and Information Systems Social Protections and Labor - Disability Gender - Gender and Law Housing and Human Habitats Communities and Human Settlements Agriculture |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16071&r=ara |
| By: | Temel Taskin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we document the intensive and extensive margin adjustments of labor market in Turkey and US.We find that both margins are important. More interestingly, the weight of intensive margin adjustment is substantially smaller than that of the extensive margin in both countries. This is robust to using various data sets and methods. Common wisdom and some theory would expect these countries to divert from each other significantly, because they represent two extreme points of labor market exibility with respect to OECD Employment Protection Index. A possible explanation for our empirical result is the sizable informal sector and self employment in Turkey as it might reduce the large hiring and firing costs and encourage firms towards extensive margin adjustment, and high hours per worker which might restrict the intensive margin adjustment, especially during booms. |
| Keywords: | intensive margin, extensive margin, labor market exibility, employment protection |
| JEL: | J20 J60 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1339&r=ara |
| By: | Saleh, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | The correlation between religion and socioeconomic status is observed throughout the world. In the Middle East, local non-Muslims are, on average, better off than the Muslim majority. I trace the origins of the phenomenon in Egypt to a historical process of self-selection across religions, which was induced by an economic incentive: the imposition of the poll tax on non-Muslims upon the Islamic Conquest of the then-Coptic Christian Egypt in 640. The tax, which remained until 1856, led to the conversion of poor Copts to Islam to avoid paying the tax, and to the shrinking of Copts to a better off minority. Using a sample of men of rural origin from the 1848- 68 census manuscripts, I find that districts with historically stricter poll tax enforcement (measured by Arab immigration to Egypt in 640-900), and/or lower attachment to Coptic Christianity before 640 (measured by the legendary route of the Holy Family), have fewer, yet better off, Copts in 1848-68. Combining historical narratives with a dataset on occupations and religion in 640-1517 from the Arabic Papyrology Database, and a dataset on Coptic churches and monasteries in 1200 and 1500 from medieval sources, I demonstrate that the cross-district findingsreflect the persistence of the Copts’ initial occupationalshift, towards white-collar jobs, and spatial shift, towards the Nile Valley. Both shifts occurred in 640-900, where most conversions to Islam took place, and where the poll tax burden peaked. Occupational barriers to entry and the religiously segregated schools both led occupations to persist in 900-1848. |
| Keywords: | Religion; poll tax; persistence; conversion; Middle East |
| JEL: | N35 O15 O15 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:27573&r=ara |
| By: | Sahar Nasr; Laila Abdelkader |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16122&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Gender - Gender and Health Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Economics & Finance Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Monitoring & Evaluation Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Systems Development & Reform Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16109&r=ara |
| By: | Peter McConaghy |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Small Scale Enterprise Industry |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16130&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy and Planning Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Transport |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16121&r=ara |
| By: | Lida Bteddini |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures Governance - E-Government Social Development - Social Accountability Public Sector Regulation Governance - Parliamentary Government Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16114&r=ara |
| By: | Hooman Dabidian; Mohammed Wafaa Al-Ani; Christopher Hassaan Francke; Ahmed Redwan |
| Keywords: | Environment - Tourism and Ecotourism Urban Development - City Development Strategies Culture and Development - Culture in Sustainable Development Accommodation and Tourism Industry Environment - Wildlife Resources Industry |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16129&r=ara |
| By: | Paul Prettitore |
| Keywords: | Gender - Gender and Law Law and Development - Legal Products Corruption and Anticorruption Law Law and Development - Judicial System Reform Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16120&r=ara |
| By: | Samira Hillis; Phillippe Leite; Laura McDonald; Lillian Frost |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Poverty Impact Evaluation Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Services and Transfers to Poor Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16119&r=ara |
| By: | Necibi, Thameur; Issaoui, Fakhri |
| Abstract: | This article has for a core objective the handling of the established relation between oil price variation and certain macroeconomic variables, in this particular case GDP, RMM, CPI, Ex-factory price. The study in Tunisia is based on quarterly and monthly data from the period going from 2000 to 2011 revealed three important facts. First, it showed at the level of the quarterly analysis that the Tunisian authority succeeded in limiting the effect of crude oil price shock, it was approved through an impulse analysis of the dynamic responses, a second important result was revealed at the level of the quarterly analysis and the established long-term relation which showed that the GDP or the industrial production positively and significantly depend on Brent oil price and on the inflation in a structure of administered price. Second at the level of the monthly analysis, the conducted study allowed us to identify the nature of inflation, which is said to the production cost through introducing a new variable which is ex-factory price. Third, the conducted study allowed us to study the asymmetric relation between Brent oil price and the monetary mechanism in an administered price regime. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics, oil prices, inflation, asymmetry |
| JEL: | L1 L11 |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50420&r=ara |
| By: | Sahar Nasr; Yara El Abd |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Financial Intermediation Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16128&r=ara |
| By: | Bouoiyour, Jamal |
| Abstract: | Remittances are an important source of external financing for a country like Morocco. We show in this paper the properties of these financial flows. Indeed, we show that remittances are more stable than foreign direct investment. They are pro-cyclical in some periods and countercyclical in others. We show also that they reduce the gender inequalities in education. They do not cause Dutch disease and promote financial development. While Moroccan officials in charge of migration issues have managed to maintain an uninterrupted flow of transfers for decades, but the question of the assignment is acute. The multiplication of actors in charge of migration issues is a key obstacle to the effectiveness of these transfers. An aggiornamento of governance of migration issues in Morocco seems more than necessary. |
| Keywords: | Remittances, Human Capital, Gender Parity Index, Business Cycles, ARCH Model, Financial Development, Dutch disease, Governance. |
| JEL: | F22 F24 |
| Date: | 2013–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50537&r=ara |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Economics Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16030&r=ara |
| By: | Dogru , Bülent; Recepoglu, Mursit |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to analyze both the linear and nonlinear co-integration relationship between Euro and U.S. Dollar exchange rates and stock price index with monthly time-series data covering the time period 1980 - 2013 for Turkish Economy. Linear co-integration test is analyzed by the bound test approach, developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001), that does not need to be applied to the series that are stationary at the same level. Whereas, nonlinear co-integration analysis is investigated by Breitung (2001) rank test. Additionaly, because series has a structural break in trend in February 2001, analyzes are also employed for sub-periods. The empirical findings suggest there is a co-integration relationship between exchange rates and stock price index in the long run. This relationship is positive in long run and negative in short run. The direction of the relationship is from exchange rates to stock prices. Therefore, for Turkish Economy the "traditional approach” describing the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates is valid. |
| Keywords: | Linear and Non Linear Co-integration, Bound Test, Rank Test, Exchange rates, Stock Price Index |
| JEL: | E60 E69 |
| Date: | 2013–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50505&r=ara |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu; Okan Eren |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismanin amaci onumuzdeki yillarda Turkiye’nin nufus yapisinda gerceklesmesi beklenen degisimin hanehalki tasarruf oranlarini hangi yonde ve ne kadar etkileyecegini incelemektir. Ayrica, toplam nufus icerisinde universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasinin ve isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesinin hanehalki tasarruflari uzerindeki etkileri arastirilmaktadir. Nufus yapisindaki degisimin yani sira universite mezuniyeti ve isgucune katilim oranlarinin artacagi varsayimi altinda, hanehalki tasarruf oraninin 2010 yilindan 2050 yilina kadar olan donemde 7,61 puan artacagi tahmin edilmistir. Soz konusu artisin yaklasik 2,26 puanlik kisminin nufus yapisindaki degisimden, 1,37 puanlik kisminin isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesinden ve 3,81 puanlik bolumunun ise universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasindan kaynaklanacagi ongorulmektedir. Bununla birlikte, isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesi ile universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasinin birlikte degerlendirilmesinin ortaya cikardigi capraz etkinin hanehalki tasarruf oranina 0,17 puanlik bir katki sagladigi anlasilmaktadir. Elde edilen bulgular universite mezunlarinin oraninin artmasinin hanehalki tasarruflari uzerinde nufus yapisindaki degisime ve isgucune katilim oraninin yukselmesine kiyasla daha onemli oldugunu ortaya cikarmistir. [EN] The aim of this study is to examine and quantify the impact of the change in the structure of population on household savings, which is expected to take place in the following years in Turkey. In addition, the effects of the increase in the number of college graduates in total population and the rise in labor force participation rates on household savings are analyzed. Under the assumption that the change in the structure of population will be accompanied with rising labor force participation rates and the number of college graduates, household saving ratio is projected to increase by 7.61 percentage points between 2010 and 2050. The sole contribution of the change in the structure of population will be 2.26 percentage points, while the contributions of the increases in labor force participation rates and the number of university graduates are expected to be 1.37 and 3.81 percentage points, respectively. Moreover, it is understood that the contribution of the cross effect, which emerges due to the joint evaluation of the rise of labor force participation rates with the increase in the number of university graduates is 0.17 percentage points. According to our empirical findings, the expected increase in the ratio of university graduates has a greater impact on household savings than demographic change and the rise in labor force participation rates. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1324&r=ara |