|
on Arab World |
| By: | Özgür Bor (Atýlým University, Turkey); Mustafa Ýsmihan (Atýlým University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the role of tax policy in gasoline prices in Turkey by utilizing time series techniques. It provides and compares empirical results by using daily gasoline prices between January 2005 and July 2012, with and without the effect of taxation. Our results, based on the standard asymmetric error-correction model, indicate no evidence of asymmetry in retail gasoline prices, which implies that the government does not benefit from the adjustment of gasoline prices through taxation. However, one can miss the big picture in gasoline pricing by concentrating only on the short term price adjustment dynamics via error-correction models. Therefore, we analyzed the long-run relationships between crude oil and gasoline prices with and without taxes. The results indicate that Turkish government succeeded at implicitly imposing an exceptionally high tax burden on gasoline (about 70%) over the longer term by adjusting non-salient excise tax amounts on gasoline and benefited from the resultant tax revenues as means of public finance. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2013/7&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide the recent developments on the supplementary education system in Turkey. The national examinations for advancing to higher levels of schooling are believed to fuel the demand for Supplementary Education Centers (SEC). Further, we aim to understand the distribution of the SECs and of the secondary schools across the provinces of Turkey in order to evaluate the spacial equity considerations. The evolution of the SECs and of the secondary schools over time are described and compared. The provincial distribution of the SECs, secondary schools and the high school age population are compared. The characteristics of these distributions are evaluated to inform the about spatial equity issues. The distribution of high school age population that attend secondary schools and the distribution of the secondary school students that attend SECs across the provinces are compared. The evidence points out to significant provincial variations in various characteristics of SECs and the secondary schools. The distribution of the SECs is more unequal than that of the secondary schools. The provinces located mostly in the east and south east of the country have lower quality SECs and secondary schools. Further, the SEC participation among the secondary school students and the secondary school participation among the relevant age group are lower in some of the provinces indicating major disadvantages. The review of the most recent developments about the SECs, examination and comparison of provincial distributions of the SECs and of the secondary schools are novelties in this paper. |
| Keywords: | Supplementary Education, Demand for Education, Turkey |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1310&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University Department of Economics, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide the recent developments on the supplementary education system in Turkey. The national examinations for advancing to higher levels of schooling are believed to fuel the demand for Supplementary Education Centers (SEC). Further, we aim to understand the distribution of the SECs and of the secondary schools across the provinces of Turkey in order to evaluate the spacial equity considerations. The evolution of the SECs and of the secondary schools over time are described and compared. The provincial distribution of the SECs, secondary schools and the high school age population are compared. The characteristics of these distributions are evaluated to inform the about spatial equity issues. The distribution of high school age population that attend secondary schools and the distribution of the secondary school students that attend SECs across the provinces are compared. The evidence points out to significant provincial variations in various characteristics of SECs and the secondary schools. The distribution of the SECs is more unequal than that of the secondary schools. The provinces located mostly in the east and south east of the country have lower quality SECs and secondary schools. Further, the SEC participation among the secondary school students and the secondary school participation among the relevant age group are lower in some of the provinces indicating major disadvantages. The review of the most recent developments about the SECs, examination and comparison of provincial distributions of the SECs and of the secondary schools are novelties in this paper. |
| Keywords: | Supplementary Education, Demand for Education, Turkey. |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1319&r=ara |
| By: | FERRAGINA, Anna Maria (CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno - Italy) |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes the findings of a research project using firm level data on Italian and Turkish manufacturing industries. In this project we study the dynamics of firm survival and growth, and the spillover effects from foreign-owned to domestic firms. First, we investigate the differences in survival patterns of foreign-owned and domestic firms and test the hypothesis that foreign multinational enterprises (FMNEs) display “foot-loose” behavior. Secondly, we analyse the effects of FDI on the survival and growth prospects of domestic firms by disentangling horizontal and vertical spillovers. We use hazard models for the econometric analysis of firm survival and the system-GMM and Heckman selection models for the analysis of firm (employment) growth. In the case of Italy, a comparison of survival rates of domestic and foreign firms shows that foreign firms are more likely to survive than domestic firms, although the survival rates of foreign firms are not much different than those of Italian multinational firms. To check for a more general applicability of this preliminary finding, we estimate the hazard functions for the domestic and foreign firms, controlling for a number of sector-specific and firm-specific characteristics. The results reveal that foreign firms are more “foot-loose” compared to their domestic counterparts while Italian multinationals exhibit lower hazard rates with respect to both domestic non-multinational firms and to foreign multinationals. Besides, the foreign firms’ likelihood of exit compared to domestic firms is higher in sectors with low technology- and knowledge-intensity. In the Turkish case, the simple comparison of survival rates also highlights that foreign firms are more likely to survive than Turkish firms, although the survival rates of foreign firms are not different from those of large domestic firms. Since foreign firms usually start with a larger size, use more capital-intensive technologies, survival rates may reflect the impact of entry characteristics. The hazard function estimates reveal that, when we control for sector-specific variables, foreign firms still have higher survival probabilities, but once firm-specific variables are included in the hazard function model, they appear more “foot-loose” for the 1983-2001 period. Foreign firms are more likely to survive than the domestic firms in the 2003-2009 period even after firm-specific variables are taken into account, but the inclusion of firm-specific variables reduces the impact of foreign ownership on the likelihood of survival considerably. These results for Italy and Turkey indicate that foreign ownership has not necessarily a positive impact on firm survival. Conversely, there is evidence that multinational experience matters for survival because multinational firms have larger size and may employ more capital-intensive technologies thanks to their superior financial strength and experience in other markets. Other firm-level characteristics (size, skill level, etc) are also crucial for survival. The exit behavior of foreign firms is also quite related to the technological environment due to the role played by opportunity costs, which are more relevant in low-tech industries, and by sunk investments costs, which (on average) are lower in more traditional sectors. The mixed results for Turkey across the two periods considered also highlight the importance of the institutional setting for firm survival and growth. Turkey experienced two different policy and growth regimes in the 1990s and 2000s. The 1990s, which is labeled by some researchers as the “lost decade”, is characterized by extreme uncertainty and boom-and-bust cycles, whereas the Turkish economy achieved a high and stable growth performance in the 2000s. In terms of industrial policy, the foot-loose behavior of foreign multinationals should be taken into account in designing investment incentives to attract foreign multinationals also pursuing sector specific policies and institutional reforms ensuring that managers have the right incentives to make long-term investment and to enhance absorptive capacity development. Besides, to improve the likelihood of firm survival, policy makers should target firm-specific characteristics that are crucial determinants of performance gaps in survival, primarily size, productivity and multinational activities. Concerning the issue of how the presence of foreign firms affects the domestic firms’ survival and employment growth, our findings suggest that there is a huge degree of heterogeneity across firms, periods and sectors in both countries. However, positive evidence in favour of positive spillovers is not overwhelming. In the case of Italy, the survival of domestic firms is positively affected by the increased presence of foreign firms within the same industry, but this only occurs in low- and medium-low tech industries. This result may be due to the fact that domestic firms in medium-high tech industries have not enough absorptive capacity to benefit from FDI spillovers. The relevance of domestic firms’ absorptive capacity for spillover effects is confirmed by our analysis: only domestic firms that have smaller technology gap vis-à-vis foreign firms benefit from significant horizontal and vertical (upstream) spillovers on survival. From the system GMM growth estimates we find that, in terms of FDI spillovers, there is evidence of a negative impact on domestic firms employment growth if the foreign firm share in the region employment increases (negative local spillovers), .and a negative employment impact for firms with a higher technology gap is detected if the foreign firm share in the sector increases. For Turkey, the regional share of foreign firms has a weak negative static impact on the survival rate, and an increase in the share of foreign firms in a sector also has a negative impact on survival in the 2003-2009 period. The foreign share of users seems to have positive coefficients, i.e., domestic firms will be more likely to survive if users are foreign, but these results are statistically significant only if firm-specific effects are not controlled for in the 2003-2009 period. Moreover, there is some evidence of a negative effect on survival if downstream firms are foreign in the 2003-2009 period. Regarding firm growth, foreign suppliers and change in regional share of foreign firms have strong negative impact on domestic firms' growth rates, i.e., those firms supplied by upstream foreign firms, and those firm operating in regions with an increasing foreign presence experience lower growth rates. There is also a weak negative impact of sectoral foreign share on growth whereas a weak positive impact is observed for the change in sectoral foreign share. These results do not support the broad conclusion that FDI have positive impact on firms’ indigenous survival and growth dynamics. Conversely, our findings provide not a favorable picture in terms of the balance between displacement/competition versus spillover effects of FDI on domestic firms. We also obtain evidence indicating that the interaction between the presence of foreign firms and domestic firm survival is markedly affected by the technological environment that shapes up domestic firms’ absorptive capacity. The displacement effect in dynamic industries implies that the damage is concentrated on high-tech firms, which should be the higher quality segment of national production. In terms of industrial policy, this implies that the desire to encourage FDI and simultaneously building up a stable supply of indigenous enterprises is more challenging in dynamic sectors, where a trade-off in terms of these objectives appears to exist. |
| Keywords: | International investment; Multinational firms; Duration analysis; Firm performance; International Linkages to Development |
| JEL: | C41 F21 F23 L25 O19 |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sal:celpdp:0127&r=ara |
| By: | Heni Boubaker; Nadia Sghaier |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dependence structure between daily oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait,Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) during the period from June 1, 2005 to February 11, 2013. For that, we apply three Archimedean copulas (Gumbel, Clayton and Frank) that capture several dependence structures. The empirical results show evidence of asymmetric dependence between oil price changes and stock market returns. In particular, we nd that all countries except Oman exhibit left tail dependence while Oman provides right tail dependence. Moreover, we check whether estimated copula parameters and tail dependence coefficients are constant over time using change point testing method. The empirical results provide also evidence of change point in copula parameters and tail dependence coefficients for all countries. The dates of change point are associated with the recent global nancial crisis. Finally, we nd that the copula parameters and the tail dependence coefficients are greater during the nancial period than in tranquil period implying a presence of contagion effect. |
| Keywords: | oil price changes, stock market returns, Archimedean copulas,asymmetric dependence structure, change point testing method, contagion effect. |
| Date: | 2013–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:23&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic conditions deteriorated in 2012. Growth slowed to 2.7 percent from 5 percent in 2011. Both the external and fiscal deficits widened significantly, to 10 percent and 7.6 percent of GDP, respectively. The 2012 fiscal outcome entailed a significant slippage from the authorities’ target and exposed vulnerabilities in the budget framework. Core inflation has remained low while the unemployment rate remained about 9 percent. The short-term outlook is improving. A bumper crop will likely push growth in 2013 above 5 percent, although nonprimary GDP growth is decelerating. Both the fiscal and external positions have been improving so far in 2013, partly reflecting lower international commodity prices. Reserves have been stable at about four months of imports for more than half a year, supported by strong capital inflows. Both indicative targets at end-April (net international reserves (NIR) and fiscal deficit) were met. The current account deficit is expected to continue contracting while the government pursues its fiscal consolidation efforts. The authorities have taken important measures to reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The authorities took the 2012 fiscal slippage seriously and responded with significant actions to strengthen their fiscal framework and reduce the impact of world commodity price fluctuations on the budget. In particular, they adopted a mechanism to index the prices of most subsidized energy products to international prices, a welcome step toward the much-needed comprehensive subsidy reform. They are committed to achieving a fiscal deficit of 5.5 percent of GDP in 2013. |
| Date: | 2013–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/302&r=ara |
| By: | Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | An expanding state has to decide how to tax the newly conquered lands, most likely taxed under a different regime. It can either preserve the prevailing system of taxation or change it to conform to its own system. The choice depends on the relative efficiency of the two systems, political constraints, and the political legitimacy of the ruler (formulated here as his ability to collect the tax revenue). This paper examines the problem of how an expanding state would establish a fiscal regime by focusing on the tax system of the Ottoman Empire during its expansion between the fourteenth and sixteenth centuries. After outlining the general structure of the Ottoman system of taxation, it develops a simple theoretical framework to analyze the political economy of an expanding state's choice of a fiscal regime, applies this framework to the Ottoman Empire, and analyzes the interaction between tax rates and bases in a more specific context, namely the system of discriminatory taxation that the Ottomans inherited in the Fertile Crescent. |
| Keywords: | fiscal regime, taxation, conquest, state, political economy, religion, legitimacy, loyalty, constraints, power |
| JEL: | D8 H2 J4 L3 M5 N4 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2013-28&r=ara |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | Bu makalenin amaci Turkiye’de Ozel Dershane sisteminde yeni gelismeleri ortaya koymaktir. Bir ust ogrenim duzeyine geciste uygulanan sinavlarin Ozel Dershanelere talebi kamciladigina inanilmaktadir. Bunun otesinde, dagilimda adaleti degerlendirmek uzere Ozel Dershanelerin ve ortaogretim okullarinin Turkiye’de illere gore dagilimina isik tutmayi amacliyoruz. Ozel Dershanelerin ve ortaogretim okullarinin zaman icinde gecirdigi evrim betimlenmekte ve karsilastirilmaktadir. Ozel Dershanelerin, liselerin ve ortaogetim (lise) cagindaki nufusun illere gore dagilimi karsilastirilmaktadir. Bu dagilim ozellikleri, dagilimda adalet konularini aciklamak uzere degerlendirilmektedir. Ortaogretime devam eden lise cagindaki nufusun illere gore dagilimi ile ortaogretim ogrencilerinden Ozel Dershanelere devam edenlerin illere gore dagilimi karsilastirilmistir. Kanitlarin ortaya koyduguna gore, Ozel Dershanelerin ve ortaogretim okullarinin ozellikleri ilden ile onemli degiskenlikler gostermektedir. Ozel Dershanelerin dagilimi, ortaogretim okullarinin dagilimina gore adaletsizdir. Ulkenin daha cok dogu ve guneydogusunda yer alan illerde Ozel Dershaneler ve ortaogretim okullari daha dusuk niteliktedir. Bunun otesinde, ortaogretim cagindakilerden Ozel Dershanelere giden ortaogretim ogrencileriyle orta ogretime devam edenlerin sayisinin, bazi illerde daha dusuk olmasi onemli esitsizliklerin gostergesidir. Ozel Dershaneler konusundaki en son gelismelerin gozden gecirilmesi, Ozel Dershanelerin ve ortaogretim okullarinin illere gore dagiliminin incelenmesi ve karsilastirilmasi bu makalenin icerdigi yeniliklerdir. |
| Keywords: | Supplementary Education, Demand for Education, Turkey |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1310-tr&r=ara |
| By: | Hasan Cömert (Middle East Technical University, Turkey); Selman Çolak (Middle East Technical University, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | 2008 krizinde Türkiye gibi bazý geliþmekte olan ekonomiler ciddi manada sarsýlsalar bile genel itibariyle geliþmekte olan ülkeler krizi geliþmiþ ülkelerden daha az zararla atlatmýþlardýr. Geliþmekte olan ülkelerin hemen hemen hiç birisi finansal bir çöküþ yaþamamýþtýr. Türkiye gibi geliþmekte olan ülkelerin özellikle finansal bir çöküþ yaþamamasýnýn arkasýnda yatan nedenler nelerdir? Bu makale geliþmekte olan ülkelerin dünya krizinden görece olarak daha az etkilenmiþ ve finansal bir çöküþle karþýlaþmamýþ olmasýný bu ülkelerin son kriz sýrasýnda yaþadýklarý finansal þoklarýn önceki dönemlerdeki þoklara göre daha küçük olmasýna baðlamaktadýr. Bu anlamda bu ülkelerin finansal sistemi kriz sýrasýnda test edilmiþ deðildir. Geliþmekte olan ülkelerin daha düþük çaplý bir þok yaþamýþ olmasý geliþmiþ olan ülkelerin kriz sýrasýnda güvenli liman iþlevini tam olarak yerine getirememesiyle ilgilidir. Özellikle merkez ülkelerindeki getiriler artmaya ve merkez ülkeler güvenli liman rolünü yerine getirmeye baþlarsa Türkiye ekonomisi ve diðer geliþmekte olan ülkeler iç ve dýþ kaynaklý nedenlerle beklentilerdeki ciddi deðiþimlere baðlý olarak daha büyük þoklarla karþýlaþabilir. Bu da Türkiye gibi geliþmekte olan ekonomilerin daha önceki dönemlerde yaþamýþ olduklarýna benzer krizlere maruz kalmasýna sebep olabilir |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2013/10&r=ara |