|
on Arab World |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential Policy;Public enterprises;Debt restructuring;Financial sector;Financial soundness indicators;Statistical annexes;Selected issues;United Arab Emirates; |
| Date: | 2013–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/240&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Fiscal policy;Public enterprises;Debt restructuring;Banking sector;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Exchange rate assessments;Staff Reports;Press releases;United Arab Emirates; |
| Date: | 2013–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/239&r=ara |
| By: | Serkan Degirmenci; Ipek Ilkkaracan |
| Abstract: | Turkish economic growth has been characterized by periodic crises since financial liberalization reforms were enacted in the early 1990s. Given the phenomenally low female labor force participation rate in Turkey (one of the lowest in the world) and the limited scope of the country's unemployment insurance scheme, there appears to be ample room for a female added worker effect as a household strategy against unemployment shocks under economic crises. Using micro data from household labor force surveys for the 2004-10 period, we examine the extent to which an unemployment shock to the primary male earner instigates female members of the household to move from nonparticipant status to labor market participation. This paper differs from the earlier few studies on the added worker effect in Turkey in a number of aspects. First, rather than simply basing the analysis on a static association between women's observed participation status and men's observed unemployment status in the survey period, we explore whether there is a dynamic relationship between transitions of women and men across labor market states. To do this, we make use of a question introduced to the Household Labor Force Survey in 2004 regarding the survey respondent's labor market status in the previous year. This allows us to explore transitions by female members of households from nonparticipant status in the previous year to participant status in the current year, in response to male members making a transition from employed in the previous period to unemployed in the current period. We explore whether and to what extent the primary male earner's move from employed to unemployed status determines the probability of married or single female full-time homemakers entering the labor market. We estimate the marginal effect of the unemployment shock on labor market transition probability for the overall sample as well as for different groups of women, and hence demonstrate that the effect varies widely depending on the particular characteristics of the woman--for example, her education level, age, urban/rural residence, and marital and parental status. We find that at the micro level an unemployment shock to the household increases the probability of a female homemaker entering the labor market by 6-8 percent. The marginal effects vary substantially across different groups of women by age, rural or urban residence, and education. For instance, a household unemployment shock increases by up to 34 percent the probability that a university graduate homemaker in the 20-45 age group will enter the labor market; for a high school graduate the probability drops to 17 percent, while for her counterpart with a secondary education the marginal effect is only 7 percent. Our estimate of the total (weighted) number of female added workers in the crisis years shows that only around 9 percent of the homemakers in households experiencing an unemployment shock enter the labor market. Hence we conclude that, while some households experiencing unemployment shocks do use the added worker effect as a coping strategy, this corresponds to a relatively small share. We attribute this finding to the deeply embedded structural constraints against female labor market participation in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Labor Supply; Economic Crisis: Turkey |
| JEL: | J16 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_774&r=ara |
| By: | Evren Erdogan Cosar; Sevim Kosem; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | We estimate an output gap indicator for Turkey without resorting to any kind of a filtering procedure. Our approach stands on a two-step procedure : First, we pick such variables that are directly informative about the phase of the business cycle, where the decision of choice depends on their statistical and economic significance in estimated Phillips curves. Second, we model business cycles as the common driver of the selected variables and estimate it in a small scale dynamic factor model setting. In this way, we produce a filter-free measure of output gap, which proves to be superior to any other filter-based measure as being immune to end-sample revisions. Using up-to-date survey-based variables instead of filtered macroeconomic aggregates, we not only postulate a way of avoiding revision uncertainty embodied in statistical filters, but also meet the need for timely information as we deliver information on the cyclical position of the economy two-quarters in advance of the GDP. |
| Keywords: | Output gap, statistical detrending filters, dynamic factor models, revisions in output gap estimates |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1333&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth;Unemployment;Oil subsidies;Fiscal sustainability;Selected issues;Morocco; |
| Date: | 2013–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/110&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Keywords: | Stand-by arrangement requests;Transition economies;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Debt sustainability analysis;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Tunisia; |
| Date: | 2013–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/161&r=ara |
| By: | Niklas J Westelius |
| Abstract: | The constraints that external linkages impose on domestic policy choices in Saudi Arabia have continuously evolved over the past four decades. This paper argues that two major ongoing developments in particular have affected and will continue to affect policy trade-offs. First, growing oil needs of emerging market economies (EMEs), and specifically those of developing Asia, have strengthened economic links between the Far East and Saudi Arabia. Second, financial sector development in Saudi Arabia has gradually strengthened the monetary transmission mechanism. The former implies the increased importance of developing Asia’s growth cycle for the Saudi economy, while the latter suggests greater influence of U.S. monetary policy on the non-oil economy through the peg to the U.S dollar. As a result, divergence between the growth cycles in developing Asia and the United States has the potential to increasingly generate tension between policy objectives in Saudi Arabia. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy;Saudi Arabia;United States;Asia;Monetary transmission mechanism;Fiscal policy;Foreign labor;Capital flows;Business cycles;Oil prices;Oil production;Financial sector;Saudi Arabia |
| Date: | 2013–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/59&r=ara |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Keywords: | Gross domestic product;Hydrocarbons;Agricultural commodities;Labor markets;Consumer price indexes;Credit;Government expenditures;Housing;Domestic debt;External debt;Interest rate structures;Financial institutions;Statistical annexes;Algeria; |
| Date: | 2013–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/49&r=ara |
| By: | Soumia Zenasni (University of Tlemcen, Algeria); Abderrezak Benhabib (University of Tlemcen, Algeria) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to investigate the empirical relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth in three Maghreb countries (Algeria, Mo- rocco, and Tunisia) using the GMM technique. The study of this relationship has al- ways been of particular interest (Alesina and al 1994; De Gregorio 1996; Edwards 2001; Agénor 2001; Ishii and Habermeier 2002; Prasad and al. 2003; Buiter and Taci 2003; Henry 2007; Dhrifi 2009; Eichengreen, Gullapalli and Panizza 2009; Bakare A. S. 2011; Vithessonthi and Tongurai 2012). The results are mitigated and can be classified into two categories: negative and positive effects. As a matter of fact, some authors have showed that capital account liberalization hasn't a significant effect on economic growth (Grilli and Milesi-Ferretti 1995; Rodrick 1998; Kraay 1998; O'Donnell 2001; Edison and al. 2002). On the contrary, several theoretical and empirical studies assert that capital account liberalization can help countries to improve significantly their eco- nomic growth rate (Gurley and Shaw 1955, McKinnon 1973; Quinn 1997; Levine and Zervos 1998; Chan-Lau and Chen 2001; Bekaert and al. 2005; Levchenko and al. 2008; Mensi and al. 2010, Hassana, Sanchezb & Yu 2011). The estimation results show that capital account liberalization is a good factor in fostering economic growth in Maghreb countries. |
| Keywords: | capital account liberalization, financial development, economic growth, Maghreb countries, GMM technique |
| JEL: | E44 G20 F43 C33 |
| Date: | 2013–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:40-2012&r=ara |
| By: | Nizar Jouini; Nooman Rebei |
| Abstract: | We propose an integrated method based on a two-sector small open economy dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model to estimate non-tariff barriers and quantify the impact of services liberalization. The major component of trade barriers is explicitly modeled through the introduction of entry-sunk costs. Hence, liberalization is treated assuming a government's policy decision aimed at reducing those costs. Then, we estimate the model using Bayesian techniques for Tunisia and the Euro Area. The paper presents a precise quantitative evaluation of services trade barriers as the difference between entry-sunk costs in Tunisia versus the Euro Area. We find significant welfare benefits in addition to aggregate and sectoral growth gains the Tunisian economy could attain following services liberalization. Surprisingly, the goods sector is the one that benefits the most from services liberalization in the short- and long-term horizons. |
| Keywords: | Services sector;Tunisia;Euro Area;Trade liberalization;Developing countries;Nontariff barriers;Economic models;Liberalization, trade in services and goods, general equilibrium, Bayesian estimation, welfare analysis, Tunisia, Euro Area. |
| Date: | 2013–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/110&r=ara |
| By: | Mehlum, Halvor (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo); Østenstad, Gry (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | We study the political economy of migration policies in oil-rich Gulf countries focusing on two policy dimensions: a) the number of migrants allowed into the country and b) the assimilation of migrants, where less assimilated migrants on short-term contracts remit more. We develop a two goods macro model with traded and non-traded goods. The migration of guest workers leads to a wage drop hurting citizen workers, while capitalists and oil rent earners benefit. When foreign exchange is remitted out of the economy, the real exchange rate depreciates. The remittance outflow benefits oil rent earners while capitalists and workers lose. Hence the three classes of domestic agents have diverging interests with regard to their preferred policy mix. The results are important for understanding the changes in migration policy in the Gulf, in particular in relation to the sharing of oil rents and on the political influence of the working class and the capitalists. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Natural Resources; Gulf countries |
| JEL: | F22 O15 P16 |
| Date: | 2013–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:osloec:2013_018&r=ara |
| By: | Zafer Yükseler (The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2013/8&r=ara |