nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2013‒08‒23
four papers chosen by
Paul Makdissi
University of Ottawa

  1. Are Output Fluctuations Transitory in the MENA Region? By doğru, bülent
  2. Does Government Support for Private Innovation Matter? Firm Level Evidence from Turkey and Poland By Wojciech Grabowski; Krzysztof Szczygielski; M. Teoman Pamukçu; Sinan Tandogan
  3. Seduction of Religious Clerics and Violence in Autocratic Regimes - with special emphasis on Islam By Platteau, Jean-Phillipe; Sekeris, Petros G.
  4. Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Egypt: New Insights from Wavelet Decomposition and Optimal GARCH Model By Bouoiyour, Jamal; Selmi, Refk

  1. By: doğru, bülent
    Abstract: This study analyzes the nonstationarity of per capita real GDP for 11 Middle East and North Asia (MENA) Countries over the period 1970 to 2012 using two recently developed methods. SURADF and CADF panel unit root tests allowing for cross sectional dependence are used to determine whether output fluctuations are permanent or transitory. Contrary to the traditional view of business cycle, we find econometric evidences supporting the idea that the output fluctuations in MENA region are mostly permanent. These results also emphasize that the effectiveness of stabilization policies aimed real output by government should be reviewed to achieve long-lasting results.
    Keywords: Panel unit root tests, MENA region, output fluctuations
    JEL: D0
    Date: 2013–06–04
  2. By: Wojciech Grabowski; Krzysztof Szczygielski; M. Teoman Pamukçu; Sinan Tandogan
    Abstract: Mediterranean and EU member countries consider enhancing innovation and R&D an important policy objective. In order to improve economic competitiveness and increase their citizens’ welfare, these countries have been formulating and implementing innovation policies. In recent years, the volume of resources allocated to such policies has considerably increased and the number of instruments used in this framework has widened. Nevertheless, a relatively limited number of studies have been conducted to assess the effectiveness of innovation policies in these countries and formulate proposals for those aspects of policies that are in contradiction with the aims.Creation-Date: 2012-09
    Keywords: Private Innovation
  3. By: Platteau, Jean-Phillipe (University of Namur); Sekeris, Petros G. (University of Namur)
    Abstract: In establishing and consolidating strong centralized states absolute monarchs do not rely on sheer force alone but they also resort to the tactic of seduction whereby they buy the loyalty of potential rivals or dissenters. We argue with special reference to the lands of Islam that seduction is not confined to political or military rivals or enemies but may be extended to religious clerics whose legitimizing helps sheltering the absolute ruler from open opposition and defusing potential rebellion. Our model which features three actors, the ruler, the religious authorities, and the common people allows us to identify the conditions under which the ruler is more or less likely to grant substantial material privileges to the official clerics. By positing (1) that official clerics respond not only to material privileges but also to ideological factors, and (2) that their potential contribution to mass protest or revolutionary movements (in the event that the ruler does not choose to treat them well enough) depends on technological/motivational factors encapsulating the influence of the state of communication technologies or the level of inspiration or emulation gained from successful rebellions in other countries, we are able to make useful predictions and, in particular, to shed new light on the Arab Spring.
    Keywords: Mass protests; Ideology; Communication
    Date: 2013–07–01
  4. By: Bouoiyour, Jamal; Selmi, Refk
    Abstract: This paper assesses the link between exchange volatility and exports in Egypt by combining wavelet analysis with an optimal GARCH model chosen among various extensions. The observed outcomes reveal that this relationship is complex and depends then widely to frequency-to-frequency variation and slightly to leverage effect and to switching regime. Indeed, it is well shown that at the low frequency, the coefficient associated to exchange rate volatility’s effect on trade performance is more intense than that at the high frequency and conversely when subtracting energy share from the total of exports. We attribute the apparently conflicting results to the financial speculation, the composition of trade partners and the choice of reference basket’s currencies.
    Keywords: Exchange volatility; exports; wavelet decomposition; optimal GARCH model.
    JEL: C1 F1 F14
    Date: 2013–01

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