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on Arab World |
| By: | Armagan Tuna Aktuna Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Christophe Starzec (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); François Gardes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We use the demand system approach to estimate the size of informal economy in Turkey following the methodology based on the analysis of the individual consumption behaviour proposed by Pissarides, Weber (1989), Lyssiotou et al. (2004), and Fortin et al. (2009). We extend this method by taking into account both the monetary expenditures and time spent on domestic activities. The necessary information of money and time inputs in consumption on the household's level is obtained by statistical match of Turkish Family Budget and Time Use surveys (2006). As expected, the estimated model size of the informal economy in Turkey using the full (time plus money) expenditure is higher than those obtained by only monetary approach (in average 40.6% and 33.5% of GDP respectively) and also higher than obtained by more conventional macroeconomic methods (for example 35.1% by Schneider in 2005 with DYMIMIC model). |
| Keywords: | Informal economy; complete demand system; time use full expenditures |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00841346&r=ara |
| By: | Miran, Bülent; Atış, Ela; Bektaş, Zerrin; Salalı, Ece; Cankurt, Murat |
| Abstract: | The countries competing for the world Raisin Market are Chile, Greece, Iran, South Africa, Turkey, and the United States. Raisin is one of the top Turkish export products. Turkish raisin sector is facing an increasing competition in international markets. The aim of this work is to explain the magnitude of the trade flows for raisin from Turkey and other exporting countries to its main importing countries. This objective has been reached by establishing an appropriate econometric model derived from an extended form of the “Gravity Model”. To apply gravity model, a panel data with the most important six exporters of raisin and their importing countries between the years of 1999- 2008 were set up. Panel data models estimated with pooled ordinary least squares and fixed effects model under some diagnostic tests. Finally, some proposals and suggestions are developed for increasing the international competitiveness of the raisin production. |
| Keywords: | Raisin, Export Analysis, Gravity Model, Panel data, Turkey, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare13:152200&r=ara |
| By: | Ibrahim Burak Kanli; Doruk Kucuksarac; Ozgur Ozel |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to serve two purposes. First, we provide information on the Turkish lira (TL) corporate bond market, which has developed rapidly in the last couple of years. Second and more prominently, we estimate the yield curve for corporate bonds in Turkey using the Nelson Siegel methodology. Results suggest that Nelson Siegel method performs a good fit for corporate bonds. Additionally, we focus on the impact of recent monetary policy induced shocks on the corporate yield curve in comparison with the sovereign yield curve. Event studies present evidence that corporate yields might diverge from sovereign yields in terms of the amount or sometimes even direction of responses to monetary policy shocks. |
| Keywords: | Corporate bonds, Yield curve estimation, Nelson Siegel, Monetary policy |
| JEL: | G12 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1326&r=ara |
| By: | Ilina Srour (Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano); Marco Vivarelli (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Piacenza); Erol Taymaz (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the causes of skill-based employment differentials within the Turkish manufacturing sector over the period 1980-2001. Turkey is taken as an example of a developing economy that, in that period, had been technologically advancing and becoming increasingly integrated with the world market. The empirical analysis is performed at firm level within a dynamic framework using a two-equation model that depicts the employment trends for skilled and unskilled workers separately. In particular, the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM-SYS) procedure is applied to a panel dataset comprised of 17,462 firms. Our results confirm the theoretical expectation that developing countries face the phenomena of skill-biased technological change and skill-enhancing technology import, both leading to increasing the employment gap between skilled and unskilled workers. In particular, strong evidence of a relative skill bias emerges: both domestic and imported technologies increase the demand for skilled labor 5 to 6 times more than the corresponding demand for the unskilled labor. Finally, “learning by export” also appears to have a skill biased impact, but to a lesser extent. |
| Keywords: | Skill-biased technological change, technology transfer, panel data, GMM-SYS |
| JEL: | F16 O33 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie2:dises1393&r=ara |
| By: | Atis, Ela; Miran, Bulent; Bektas, Zerrin; Ciftci, Kenan; Karabat, Selcuk |
| Abstract: | Sultana is among the most important products in Turkish economy in terms of being a principal export crop and many producers’ occupations. Although sultana’s share in export is high, Turkey aims having a sustainable place in the international competition. In this framework; common attitude of all the actors and institutions in the sector towards attaining competitive advantages are required both in national and international markets. A sustainable competition power calls for paying a special attention to producer preferences. It is of importance to reveal and analyze that sultana producers’ preferred market and particularly the reasons for those preferences. This study deals with analyzing tendencies of the conventional and organic sultana producers to supply their products to domestic and international markets with respect to some alternatives such as high price, guaranteed payment and marketing easily by means of Analytical Hierarchy Process. Data of the study was gathered from randomly chosen 300 sultana producers in Manisa where sultana production is very widespread. Scores from Analytical Hierarchy Process are analyzed by Tobit for doing a deeper analysis of the producer preferences. |
| Keywords: | Analytical Hierarchy Process, Conventional Sultana, Market Preference, Organic Sultana, Tobit, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare13:152136&r=ara |
| By: | Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim |
| Abstract: | This study uses panel cointegration techniques to examine the impact of energy consumption, and trade on economic growth for five North Africa countries within a multivariate framework over the period 1980-2009. Short-run dynamic relationship shows that there is evidence of one way short-run relationship from i) output, exports, and capital to imports, ii) fossil fuels consumption to exports, iii) exports to capital and iv) labor to combustible renewables and waste consumption. The vector error correction model shows that there is evidence of long-run relationship running from i) combustible renewables and waste consumption, fossil fuels consumption, exports, imports, capital, and labor to output, ii) fossil fuels consumption, exports, imports, capital, and labor to combustible renewables and waste consumption, and iii) combustible renewables and waste consumption, fossil fuels consumption, exports, capital, and labor to imports. The long-run elasticities show that combustible renewables and waste consumption is not statistically significant and only fossil fuels consumption can affect output while trade is statistically significant and have a negative impact on output through imports and positive impact through exports. The policy implication of these results is that, in these countries, trade openness is not sufficiently efficient to incite the use of energies for production. |
| Keywords: | Energy consumption; panel cointegration, North Africa countries, trade. |
| JEL: | C33 F43 Q56 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47965&r=ara |
| By: | Ibrahim Burak Kanli; Doruk Kucuksarac; Ozgur Ozel |
| Abstract: | [EN] This paper introduces the Turkish lira (TL) corporate bond market and presents the estimations of corporate bond yield curve using the Nelson Siegel methodology. Results suggest that Nelson Siegel method performs a good fit for corporate bonds. Additionally, we focus on the impact of recent monetary policy induced shocks on the corporate yield curve in comparison with the sovereign yield curve. Event studies present evidence that the response of corporate bond yields to the monetary policy shocks might diverge from that of government bond yields in terms of magnitude or sometimes even direction. [TR] Bu notta Turk lirasi cinsi ozel sektor tahvil piyasasi tanitilmakta ve bu piyasa icin Nelson Siegel yontemi kullanilarak getiri egrisi tahmin edilmektedir. Sonuclar Nelson Siegel yonteminin ozel sektor tahvilleri icin iyi bir tahmin verdigini gostermektedir. Ayrica, not kapsaminda son donemdeki para politikasi kararlarinin ozel sektor getiri egrisi uzerindeki etkisi devlet tahvili getirilerindeki degisim ile kiyaslanarak tartisilmaktadir. Vaka calismalari ozel sektör tahvil getirilerinin devlet tahvillerinden gerek yon gerekse buyukluk olarak farklilasabilecegini gostermektedir. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1319&r=ara |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sbia, Rashid; Hamdi, Helmi |
| Abstract: | The present study explores the relationship between economic growth, electricity consumption, urbanization and environmental degradation in case of United Arab Emirates. The study covers the quarter frequency data over the period of 1975-2011. We have applied the ARDL bounds testing approach to examine the long run relationship between the variables in the presence of structural breaks. The VECM Granger causality is applied to investigate the direction of causal relationship between the variables. Our empirical exercise reported the existence of cointegration among the series in case of United Arab Emirates. Further, we found an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions i.e. economic growth raises energy emissions initially and declines it after a threshold point of income per capita (EKC exists). Electricity consumption declines CO2 emissions. The relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions is positive. Exports seem to improve the environmental quality by lowering CO2 emissions in case of UAE. The causality analysis validates the feedback effect between CO2 emissions and electricity consumption. Economic growth and urbanization Granger cause CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | Electricity, Growth, CO2 emissions |
| JEL: | C5 |
| Date: | 2013–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48007&r=ara |
| By: | Farhani, Sahbi; Shahbaz, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of natural gas consumption, real gross fixed capital formation and trade on the real GDP in case of Tunisia over the period of 1980-2010. We used Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to test the existence of long run relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) Granger approach is applied to test the direction of causal relation between the series. Our findings indicate the existence of long-run relationship among the variables. Natural gas consumption, real gross fixed capital formation and trade add in economic growth. Natural gas consumption, real gross fixed capital formation and real trade Granger cause real GDP. These findings open up new insights for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive energy policy to sustain economic growth for long run. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas consumption, Economic growth, Tunisia, ARDL approach |
| JEL: | C5 |
| Date: | 2013–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48083&r=ara |
| By: | Pelek, Selin (Galatasaray University Economic Research Center) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the effect of the minimum wage on the entire wage distribution. More specifically, we address the issue of wage inequality by taking into account the potential distributional outcomes of the minimum wage legislation. We decompose the wage differences and the changes in the wage inequality before and after the sizeable minimum wage increase in 2004 following the methodology introduced by DiNardo, Fortin and Lemieux (1996). We use a non-parametric reweighting approach to decompose the effects of the minimum wage increase as well as other factors that may have changed the wage distribution. Our main findings confirm that the minimum wage has played the pivotal role in reducing wage inequality for both men and women wage earners between 2003 and 2005. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; wage inequality; counterfactual distributions |
| JEL: | J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2013–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:giamwp:2013_008&r=ara |
| By: | Davutyan, Nurhan (Kadir Has University and Fellow, Economic Research Forum); Bilsel, Murat (Marmara University); Tarcan, Menderes (Osmangazi University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the operational performance of 330 Turkish provincial general hospitals. To help improve performance on both input and output space, we adopt a directional distance approach. We treat a mortality based variable as bad output. Congested hospitals are those for whom the switch from strong to weak disposability of mortality is costly. Thus we are able to address the “quality or adequacy of care” issue. We identify congested hospitals using 3 different direction vectors and derive the associated congestion inefficiency scores. For each case, we show these scores are negatively related to patient satisfaction. We separate congested hospitals into two groups: (i) efficient ones requiring uniform sacrifice of good outputs and/or extra inputs in order to reduce mortality, and (ii) inefficient hospitals that do not. The latter ones free up some inputs in addition to requiring extra amounts of other inputs and/or produce more of some outputs but less of others as the price of reducing mortality. The first group can be said to operate at “capacity” whereas the latter can be said to display “negative marginal productivity”. Patient dissatisfaction is demonstrably higher in the latter group of hospitals, whereas mortality reduction is positively related to patient satisfaction in “capacity constrained” hospitals. The efficient group is more likely to be located in emigrating whereas the inefficient one in immigrating regions. |
| Keywords: | Directional distance; bad outputs; hospital quality |
| JEL: | D21 I11 |
| Date: | 2013–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:giamwp:2013_007&r=ara |
| By: | Sbia, Rashid; Shahbaz, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This study aims to explore the relationship between economic growth, urbanization, financial development and electricity consumption in case of United Arab Emirates. The study covers the time period of 1975-2011. We have applied the ARDL bounds testing to examine long run relationship between the variables in the presence of structural breaks. The VECM Granger causality is applied to investigate the direction of causal relationship between the variables. Our empirical exercise found cointegration between the series in case of United Arab Emirates. Further, results reveal that inverted U-shaped relationship is found between economic growth and electricity consumption i.e. economic growth raises electricity consumption initially and declines it after a threshold level of income per capita. Financial development adds in electricity consumption. The relationship between urbanization and electricity consumption is also inverted U-shaped. This implies that urbanization increases electricity consumption initially and after a threshold level of urbanization, electricity demand falls. The causality analysis finds feedback hypothesis between economic growth and electricity consumption i.e. economic growth and electricity consumption are interdependent. The bidirectional causality is found between financial development and electricity consumption. Economic growth and urbanization Granger cause each other. The feedback hypothesis is also found between urbanization and financial development, financial development and economic growth and same is true for electricity consumption and urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, urbanization, electricity consumption |
| JEL: | C5 |
| Date: | 2013–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47981&r=ara |
| By: | Boughlala, Mohamed; Gharras, O. El; Dahan, R. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare13:152193&r=ara |
| By: | Gert-Jan Veerman (University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands); Jaap Dronkers (Maastricht University, The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the effect of the ethnic school composition on school performances in secondary education for Turkish students, using both cross-national PISA 2009 and Swiss national PISA 2009 data. We argue how social capital theory beside other theories can explain a part of the ethnic composition effect. We employ three indicators of the ethnic composition of a school: the native share, the share of co-ethnics and the ethnic diversity (we employ a residualized score of diversity on the proportion of migrants). Our results show no effect of the proportion of natives on math performances. Furthermore, we show a negative association between ethnic diversity and math performances. Nevertheless, we find a positive association between ethnic diversity and reading performances in The Netherlands. Children of Turkish decent have higher math performances if they are in an educational system with a larger community of co-ethnics and if they are in an educational system with native students with average higher school performances. Finally we find no association between an early comprehensive labor agreement and math performances. |
| Keywords: | ethnic composition, Turkish migrant students, ethnic diversity, social capital |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1314&r=ara |
| By: | Doruk Kucuksarac; Ozgur Ozel |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada gecelik kur takasi faizleri ile BIST Repo-Ters Repo Pazari’ndaki gecelik repo faizleri arasindaki iliski incelenmektedir. Soz konusu faizlerin Turkiye’de para politikasinin aktarim mekanizmasi icerisinde onemli bir yere sahip olmasi sebebiyle iki piyasa arasindaki iliskinin ortaya cikarilmasi onem arz etmektedir. Bu amac dogrultusunda oncelikle ele alinan piyasalardaki arbitrajsiz iliskinin hangi faktorlere bagli oldugu incelenmistir. Soz konusu iki faiz arasindaki farkta ; Libor, finansal kuruluslarin ek borclanma maliyeti ile Turk lirasi ve yabanci para zorunlu karsilik oranlarinin etkili oldugu gosterilmistir. Calismanin devaminda iki faiz seviyesi arasinda uzun vadeli bir iliski olup olmadigi Pesaran, Shin ve Smith es butunlesme yontemiyle test edilmistir. Buna gore elde edilen ampirik bulgular uzun donemde piyasalar arasinda olusmasi beklenen arbitrajsiz iliskiyle ortusmektedir. [EN] This note explores the interaction between the overnight currency swap rates (Turkish lira rates) and BIST overnight repo rates. This relation is worth analyzing due to the prominence of these rates in the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey. In this context, firstly a no arbitrage condition is derived between the aforementioned markets. The derivation reveals that the differential between the two rates is determined by Libor, financial institutions’ foreign currency borrowing spread, required reserves on both Turkish lira and foreign currency. Secondly, the note tests the long run relation between these two rates by using the cointegration method offered by Pesaran, Shin and Smith. Accordingly, empirical results confirm that the long run relation between these markets is consistent with the no arbitrage condition derived in the first part. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1315&r=ara |
| By: | Mustafa Kilinc; Cengiz Tunc |
| Abstract: | [TR] Diger ekonomik degiskenlerle cok guclu bir etkilesim icinde bulunan konut fiyatlari takip edilmesi gereken onemli ekonomik degiskenlerden birisidir. Konutun teminat olarak kullanilabilmesi, konut kredilerinin kredi piyasasinda onemli bir paya sahip olmasi, konut kredisi uzerine finansal enstrumanlar yazilabilmesi ve konut fiyati degisimlerinin zenginlik etkisi araciligi ile tuketim ve tasarruf davranislarini etkilemesi konut fiyatlarinin cesitli kanallar ile ekonomik etkiler ortaya koyabilmesine sebep olmaktadir. Turkiye’de gecmise yonelik uzun donemli konut fiyatlarini takip edebilecek bir konut fiyat endeksi bulunmamaktadir. Bu calismada oncelikle tuketim yontemi ile hesaplanan GSYIH altindaki konut yatirimlarina ait deflatorun farkli ulkelerde konut fiyat endeksi icin iyi bir gosterge oldugu ortaya konmustur. Daha sonra Turkiye icin 1998 yilindan itibaren konut deflatoru ve goreli konut deflatoru elde edilmistir. Goreli konut deflatoru 1998-2012 yillari arasinda ekonomik dalgalanmalari takip ederek dalgali bir seyir izlemis ve herhangi uzun donemli bir egilim sergilememistir. [EN] House price is an important economic variable to be tracked. Home ownership which constitutes a large component of investment has strong interaction with other economic variables. Housing has strong economic effects through various factors such as housing being used as collateral, the large proportion of housing credits in credit market, generating financial instruments on mortgages, and the wealth effects of changes in house prices. There is no house price index to track long-term house price changes in Turkey. In this study, it is first shown that housing investment deflator generated from expenditure approach based GDP is a good estimate for house price index in different countries. Then GDP based relative housing deflator is constructed for Turkey since 1998. This relative housing deflator follows a similar pattern to the economic fluctuations in Turkey between 1998 and 2012 and has no special long-run trend. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1314&r=ara |
| By: | A. Hakan Kara; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye’de makro finansal riskleri sinirlamaya yonelik politikalar cari islemler dengesindeki gelismelere ozel bir onem atfetmektedir. Cari dengeye yonelik politika tasariminin saglikli bir sekilde yapilabilmesi icin herhangi bir donemde cari acigin ne kadarinin konjonkturel (cevrimsel) ne kadarinin yapisal unsurlara atfedilebilecegi sorusu onem tasimaktadir. Bu not, basit bir teknik kullanarak cari islemler dengesini dis talep, ic talep ve dis ticaret fiyatlari gibi konjonkturel/gecici etkilerden arindirmaktadir. Cesitli varsayimlar altinda yapilan hesaplamalar, yakin donemde Turkiye’de cari islemler dengesinin milli gelire oraninin yuzde 5 civarinda bir ana egilim sergiledigine isaret etmektedir. Calismanin bulgulari, son yillarda cari denge dinamiklerinin ve buna yonelik uygulanan politikalarin anlasilmasina katkida bulunmaktadir. [EN] Economic policies focusing on macro-financial risks in Turkey attribute special emphasis on current account developments. In this context, quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving current account deficit is crucial for the design of an appropriate policy response against current account volatility. Using a simple methodology, this note decomposes the cyclical/transitory part of the current account in Turkey, with special reference to its three components, namely foreign demand, domestic demand and foreign trade prices. The estimations under various assumptions indicate that the main trend of the current account deficit/GDP is around 5 percent in recent years. Our findings contribute to the understanding of recent dynamics in the current account and the associated policies. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1318&r=ara |
| By: | Gursu Keles; Ozgur Kasapoglu; Halil Kocagoz |
| Abstract: | [TR] 2010 yili sonu itibariyla uygulanmaya baslanan ve fiyat istikrarinin yaninda finansal istikrari da benimseyen yeni para politikasi yaklasimi cercevesinde faiz koridorunun aktif bir politika araci olarak kullanilmasi Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) likidite politikasi durusuna atfedilen onemi de artirmistir. Bu notla, TCMB likidite politikasi durusunun ve bu durusun para piyasasi faizlerine olan aktariminin turetilen endeksler yardimiyla ozet bir sekilde sunulmasi amaclanmaktadir. Tanitilan endeksler, likidite politikasi durusunu ve aktarimini bagil olarak ifade etmeleri yonuyle donemler arasi kiyaslama imkâni da sunmaktadir. [EN] The active use of interest rate corridor as a monetary policy tool under the new policy mix, which aims to contribute to financial stability while maintaining price stability and has been used since late 2010, increased the role attributed to the liquidity policy stance of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). In this note we introduce two indices that summarize both CBRT’s liquidity stance and its very first transmission to money market rates. Being able to reflect relative liquidity stance and its transmission, these indices pave the way for comparison among different periods of liquidity policies. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1316&r=ara |