nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2013‒07‒05
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Seigniorage Revenue and Inflation Tax: Testing Optimal Seigniorage Theory for Turkish Economy By dogru, bulent
  2. The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market By Rubin, Ofir D.; Ihle, Rico; Kachel, Yael; Goodwin, Barry K.
  3. The Selection Bias in Court Records: Settlement and Trial in Eighteenth Century Kastamonu By Metin M. Cosgel; Bogac A. Ergene

  1. By: dogru, bulent
    Abstract: The goal of this study is to test the implication of Mankiv’s (1987) optimal seigniorage theory suggesting that in the long run higher tax rates are associated with higher inflation rates and higher nominal interest rates for Turkish Economy using time series dataset for the time period 1980-2011.We examine the long run relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation and tax revenue. For this purpose, we estimate the Mankiw’soptimal seigniorage model for Turkish Economy with the cointegration and vector error correction methods (VECM) techniques. According to econometric result, in long run there is a causality relationship from inflation and tax revenue to nominal interest rates. However, in short run we could not find any evidence that support the causality from inflation and tax revenue to nominal interest rates
    Keywords: seigniorage and inflation tax, optimal seigniorage theory, Turkish economy, error correction model, cointegration analysis
    JEL: E6 E62
    Date: 2013–06
  2. By: Rubin, Ofir D.; Ihle, Rico; Kachel, Yael; Goodwin, Barry K.
    Abstract: The impact of violent conflict on the state of the economy has been studied extensively since the two recent decades. In most studies the state of the economy is operationalized by stock market indices of the respective countries. In this paper we suggest investigating the impact of violent conflict on the lives of civilians by looking also at food prices. We gathered a unique dataset of daily frequency for this purpose which offers a number of variables quantifying relevant events which occurred between 1997 and 2011 in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We model domestic Israeli prices of several fresh fruits and vegetables using a GARCH framework and control for the state of the economy, exchange rate effects, international prices, seasonal variation and Muslim holidays. Intensity of the conflict is measured by the incidences of movement restrictions which are implemented due to security reasons and temporarily cut off the otherwise dynamic agricultural trade between Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and daily casualty numbers for both sides of the conflict. Our analysis yields plausible results for the comprehensive impact of the controls as well as of the conflict variables. We find that comprehensive closures imposed on the Palestinian Territories do not show much impact on food price dynamics in Israel. Conversely, while days with many Israeli casualties raise both the mean and the volatility of several prices, the opposite effect is observed in the case of high numbers of fatalities on the Palestinian side.
    Keywords: Casualties, Closures, Food prices, GARCH, Intifada, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Middle East, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, F15, F51, Q11,
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut); Bogac A. Ergene (University of Vermont)
    Abstract: Court records are used extensively in historical research. Preserved as summaries of daily legal proceedings, they give historians a unique opportunity of access to the information about the names, personal characteristics, and socio-economic status of individuals and about the laws, local customs, and legal institutions that were used in resolving disputes. Although researchers have thoroughly discussed the limitations of these records in accurately reflecting court proceedings, the problem of selection bias has not been systematically studied. Since litigants would likely settle disputes in which one side is likely to be a clear winner, the cases that go to trial would likely be the difficult and uncertain ones for which there is greater disagreement, altogether comprising a non-random and unrepresentative subset of all disputes. We study the selection bias in Ottoman courts in the town of Kastamonu in northern Anatolia, from the late seventeenth and the eighteenth centuries. We separate disputes by type and study the distribution of court participants according to size, gender, and religious and socioeconomic status. We run regression analysis to determine the factors affecting the likelihood of cases being tried in court. Our results indicate that the cases that wound up in court were selected systematically. If the selection bias is ignored, research based on Ottoman court records may be seriously flawed in its ability to yield general conclusions.
    Keywords: court record, Islamic law, legal system, selection bias, Ottoman Empire, Kastamonu, litigation, settlement, trial
    JEL: D3 D6 E3 E6 I3 J1 N3 N9 O53
    Date: 2013–06

This nep-ara issue is ©2013 by Quentin Wodon. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.