nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2013‒06‒09
five papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric By Attar, M. Aykut
  2. Government Debt Management and Operational Risk: A Risk Management Framework and its Application in Turkey By Hakan Tokaç; Mike Williams
  3. Fuel Conservation Effect of Energy Subsidy Reform in Iran By Hossein Mirshojaeian Hosseini; Shinji Kaneko
  4. The Impact of Restrictions in Trade in the Telecommunications: an Application to Middle East and North African Countries By Thierry Montalieu; Isabelle Rabaud
  5. IPO financial and operating performance: Evidence from the six countries of the GCC By Ahmed S Alanazi; Benjamin Liu

  1. By: Attar, M. Aykut
    Abstract: This paper projects the effects of exogenous fertility changes in Turkey on the age structure of population and the standards of living using a semi-reduced-form model of economic growth and demographic change. Both the technological progress and the fertility rate are endogenous. The calibrated version of the model delivers three important results: First, technological progress will be the major source of economic growth in Turkey in the upcoming decades. Second, even with a non-declining saving rate, the population aging will result in a growth slowdown since technological progress is not fast enough in Turkey. Third, even under an increasing rate of technological progress, a permanent upward shift in fertility levels would imply, relative to the benchmark, a significantly lower level of output per capita, a remarkably higher level of dependent population, and a persistently lower share of the working-age population for many decades. These results suggest that the priority of policy-makers in Turkey should be technological progress. The pro-natalist rhetoric, even if it proves to be strong enough to persuade the people of Turkey to have more children in the near future, does not have any economic significance.
    Keywords: fertility, population aging, population policy, technological progress.
    JEL: C63 E17 O11 O33
    Date: 2013–05–24
  2. By: Hakan Tokaç; Mike Williams
    Abstract: The management of operational risk is at the heart of efficient government, but countries often fail to apply good or even routine operational risk management practices and have difficulty in understanding how to put the processes in place. Through an analysis of Turkey’s Undersecretariat of Treasury, SIGMA Paper 50 presents an overview of key operational risks and recommendations on how to develop a framework for managing them, and provides lessons learnt that can be applied in debt management units and related treasury functions across a wide range of countries.
    Date: 2013–04–17
  3. By: Hossein Mirshojaeian Hosseini (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Shinji Kaneko (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University)
    Abstract: To prevent further increases in energy consumption, the Iranian government commenced energy subsidy reform in 2010. This paper investigates the fuel conservation effects of the reform in Iran using a homothetic translog cost function that provides estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities of fuel demands. The percentage reduction in fuel demands is estimated using the likely effect of the reform on fuel prices. The results reveal that the reform may not be as successful as assumed. Under optimistic assumptions, the reform may reduce energy consumption marginally, and under pessimistic assumptions, it may increase energy consumption because of inelastic fuel demands and substantial substitution between fuels.
    Keywords: Energy subsidy reform, Energy conservation, Iran, Translog cost function
    JEL: C32 Q38 Q43
    Date: 2013–01
  4. By: Thierry Montalieu (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR7322 - Université d'Orléans); Isabelle Rabaud (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR7322 - Université d'Orléans)
    Abstract: Theoretically, welfare gains from liberalisation of trade in services arise from falling prices and technology transfers from foreign firms. Empirically, due to the role of the regulatory framework in barriers to trade in services ('behind-the-border' laws) substantial gains are only reached when entry of foreign firms is widened. We have a close look at the way impediments to trade in services affect cost-price margin in telecommunication in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. First, we criticise the measurements of barriers in trade in services, which tend towards an overestimation. Second, we show that analyses bend to overvalue the impact of regulations on the cost-price margin in telecommunications for MENA countries, in line with inadequate econometric techniques or underestimation of the effect of technical progress. Therefore, the best way in terms of trade in services liberalisation is to opt for a flexible, qualitative interpretation of the quantitative results and rank ordering of countries.
    Keywords: Trade restrictions, Commercial presence, Liberalisation of trade in services, Telecommunications, MENA countries
    Date: 2012–07–10
  5. By: Ahmed S Alanazi; Benjamin Liu
    Keywords: Initial public offerings, Gulf Cooperating Council, operating performance, ownership
    JEL: G32 G34
    Date: 2013–04

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