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on Arab World |
| By: | Ermişoğlu, Ergun; Akçelik, Yasin; Oduncu, Arif; Taşkın, Temel |
| Abstract: | Since the global financial crisis, Central Banks have used various policy tools to sustain financial stability besides price stability. Additional Monetary Tightening is one of these tools that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey used in 2011-2012. The effects of this tool on the exchange rate are the main theme of this paper. Our analysis indicates that additional monetary tightening has a significant role in reducing volatility in the exchange rate. It is also shown that during the days of additional tightening Turkish Lira appreciated against the emerging market currencies. |
| Keywords: | Additional Monetary Tightening, Turkish Lira, Exchange Rates, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s New Policy Mix, GARCH |
| JEL: | C12 C58 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46615&r=ara |
| By: | Basak Bayramoglu; Jean-François Jacques |
| Abstract: | There is an ongoing debate over the potential effects of international trade on fishery resources. In this study, we investigate whether the trade in fish and fish products contributed to the decline in a given number of fish species in Turkey. The overall purpose is to test the theoretical findings of Brander and Taylor (1997) who argue that trade openness decreases fish harvest in a small open economy characterized by a regime of open-access to fishery resources. To this end, we estimate a panel data model to measure the effects of trade openness on fish harvests in the case of 57 fish species observed from 1996 to 2009 in Turkey. We estimate Turkish fish harvests in terms of the relative importance of openness to trade as well as in terms of biological characteristics, in addition to economic and technological factors. Estimation results reveal a backward-bending supply curve for the fish harvest. Furthermore, we find that the indicator of openness to trade has a significant and positive impact on the fish harvest. Our results suggest that further openness to trade would put additional pressure on Turkey’s already declining fishery resources. |
| Keywords: | Openness to trade, Fish harvest, Fishery technology, Biological factors, Panel data model |
| JEL: | Q22 Q56 C33 |
| Date: | 2012–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apu:wpaper:2012/02&r=ara |
| By: | Akcelik, Yasin; Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Oduncu, Arif |
| Abstract: | After the global crisis, one of the most important lessons learned for the Central Banks has appeared to be the vital importance of financial stability along with the price stability. Hence, finding solutions to how to incorporate the financial stability objective in the implementation of the monetary policy without diluting the price-stability objective has started to be heavily discussed by the academics and policy makers. Accordingly, it has started to be debated that using only short-term interest rates as the main policy tool may not be enough to maintain the price stability and the financial stability at the same time. Interest rates that provide price stability and financial stability can be different and this necessitates the central banks to use multiple policy tools. In view of this, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey adopted a new monetary policy framework called the new policy mix in which multiple tools are employed to achieve multiple objectives. In this framework, required reserves ratios, weekly repo rates, interest rate corridor, funding strategy and other macro prudential tools are jointly used as complementary tools for the credit, interest rate and liquidity policies to achieve the price and the financial stability objectives concurrently. This new monetary policy adopted in Turkey also provides an interesting case study to assess how a country came up with novel policies to account for its country specific characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Central banking, Policy-mix, Global financial crisis, Financial Stability |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46612&r=ara |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ozturk, Ilhan; Afza, Talat; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | The present study deals with an empirical investigation between CO2 emissions, energy intensity, economic growth and globalization using annual data over the period of 1970-2010 for Turkish economy. We applied unit root test and cointegration approach in the presence of structural breaks. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by applying the VECM Granger causality approach. Our results confirmed the existence of cointegration between the series. The empirical evidence reported that energy intensity, economic growth (globalization) increase (condense) CO2 emissions. The results also validated the presence of Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The causality analysis shows bidirectional causality between economic growth and CO2 emissions. This implies that economic growth can be boosted at the cost of environment. |
| Keywords: | Carbon dioxide emissions, EKC, economic growth |
| JEL: | Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2013–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46610&r=ara |
| By: | Ermişoğlu, Ergun; Akcelik, Yasin; Oduncu, Arif |
| Abstract: | It is a well-known fact that there is a strong relationship between bank credits and economic activity. Thus, it is a reasonable question whether credit data can be used in nowcasting GDP growth. It is important for policymakers to make on-time decisions with the most available data and nowcasting is an important tool when policies in question are needed to be made based on current figures. Most macroeconomic variables are made available to public after a considerable delay; however, banking credit data may be very valuable for the early estimate of current GDP as it is available only with a few days delay. In this paper, we aim to investigate the feasibility of using credit data in explaining the variability in Turkish GDP growth and as well as nowcasting it. For this purpose, we use credit impulse and new borrowing, two measures of credit flows. We show that credit impulse and new borrowing are significant in explaining the pattern of the Turkish GDP growth and they have significant contribution to nowcasting it. |
| Keywords: | Nowcasting GDP, Credit Impulse, New Borrowing |
| JEL: | C22 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46613&r=ara |
| By: | Ageli, Mohammed Moosa |
| Abstract: | In This paper investigates the nexus relationship between tourism expenditure and Non Oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia over the period 1970-2012. Using Phillips and Perron (PP) unit root test-VAR approach with several techniques including Unit root tests, Johansen’s co-integration test, Granger Causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We used time series econometrics techniques to examine the causal relationship between tourism expenditure and economic growth in the Saudi economy. The findings reveal that there is a bilateral causality and positive long-run relationship running from Non Oil-GDP to tourism expenditure. The results obtained from the analyses show that there is a positive relationship between tourism spending and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The development of tourism sector will thus have a positive impact on the growth of the Saudi economy. Also, the results show that, in Saudi Arabia, the model of tourism expenditure is found to hold for Non Oil-GDP. |
| Keywords: | Tourism Expenditure, PP-VAR Approach, Phillips and Perron (PP) unit root test, Co-integration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality, Economic Growth, Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | C32 L83 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46602&r=ara |
| By: | Ageli, Mohammed Moosa; Zaidan, Shatha Mousa |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth in the Saudi economy over the period 1970-2012 by using four alternative proxies for financial development and several techniques including unit root tests, the co-integration test, the Granger Causality Test, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We used time series econometrics techniques to examine the causal relationship between financial sector development and economic growth in the Saudi economy. The results obtained from the analyses show that there is a positive relationship between financial sector development and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The development of the financial system will thus have a positive impact on the growth of the Saudi economy. |
| Keywords: | Financial Sector Development, Unit Root test, co-integration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Economic Growth, Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | E44 O11 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46591&r=ara |
| By: | Ageli, Mohammed Moosa |
| Abstract: | Our goal in this paper is to explore the validity of Wagner’s Law in Saudi Arabia during the period (1970-2012) for real oil GDP and Non-oil GDP. Wagner’s Law investigated that fundamental economic growth is validity to the public sector growth. In the previous studies have been tested the six versions of Wagner’s law to support the existence of long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. We used a method as a time series econometrics techniques to examine how far Wagner’s Law validity can be applied in Saudi economy. The results obtained from the analyses find that the Wagnerian proposition can explain the growth of government in Saudi Arabia, which holds for both the oil and non-oil income cases. The findings also note that the existence of strong causality for all of Wagner’s law versions in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Wagner’s Law, Co-integration, Error Correction Model (ECM), Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Government Expenditure, Economic Growth, Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | C32 H50 O53 |
| Date: | 2013–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46594&r=ara |
| By: | Ageli, Mohammed Moosa; Zaidan, Shatha Mousa |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causality relationship between defence expenditures and Non Oil economic growth in Saudi Arabia over the period 1970-2012. Using Unit root tests, Johansen’s co-integration test and Granger Causality test. In this paper we found the existence of bi-directional causality relationship running from Non Oil-GDP to defence expenditure. The results show that, in Saudi Arabia, the model of defence expenditure is found to hold for Non Oil-GDP. |
| Keywords: | Defence Expenditure, Economic Growth, Unit Root test, Co-integration test, Granger causality and Error Correction Models (ECM), Saudi Arabia |
| JEL: | C12 H56 N15 |
| Date: | 2012–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46590&r=ara |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Abosedra, Salah; Sbia, Rashid |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between financial development, energy consumption and economic growth in Lebanon over the period 1993M1-2010M12.Our findings confirm the existence of cointegration among the variables. The results indicate that financial development and energy consumption, contribute to economic growth in Lebanon. The impact of energy consumption on economic growth is positive showing the significance of energy as a main stimulant of economic growth. Financial development is also found to play a vital role in enhancing economic growth. Economic growth and financial development also add in energy consumption. The study, therefore, recommends that in short run, policy makers should put more emphasis in developing strategies that would result in achieving higher mobilization of savings in order to boost Lebanese investors’ confidence and to also attract more foreign investment in Lebanon. Furthermore, desired financial policy to encounter the rising demand for energy by enhancing the process of capitalization of the energy sector is also very desirable. Our results further cautions of the use of policy tools geared towards restricting energy consumption in short run, something that is called for as part of national energy policy, as these may result in lower economic growth. Such conservation policies should be taken gradually and carefully as to not negatively impact the growth of the economy. However, in long run, the Lebanese government should shift its focus towards achieving higher economic growth, in order to boost its financial development and to sustain a steady flow of needed energy. In this regards, policymakers should put emphasis on the development of domestic energy resources to protect the country from any undesirable external energy shock given its extensive dependence on energy imports. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, financial development, energy consumption |
| JEL: | C5 O1 O11 |
| Date: | 2013–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:46580&r=ara |