nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2013‒04‒27
five papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Private Tutoring and the Question of Equitable Opportunities in Turkey By Tansel, Aysit
  2. External Financial Stress and External Financing Vulnerability in Turkey : Some Policy Implications for Financial Stability By Etkin Ozen; Cem Sahin; Ibrahim Unalmis
  3. End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey By M. Fatih Ekinci; Gazi Kabas; Enes Sunel
  4. Systemic Risk Contribution of Individual Banks By Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun; Ramazan Karasahin; Gursu Keles
  5. Regional Initiative in the Gulf Arab States: The Search for a Common Currency By Syed Abul, Basher

  1. By: Tansel, Aysit
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the implications of private tutoring in Turkey for questions of equity regarding the provision of public education, based on an analysis of previously published research. The nature of the private tutoring and its relation to the two national selection examinations in Turkey are also discussed.
    Keywords: Turkey; Private tutoring; Educational equity; National Selection Examinations
    JEL: I21 I24 I25
    Date: 2013–03–14
  2. By: Etkin Ozen; Cem Sahin; Ibrahim Unalmis
    Abstract: External financial stress is one of the causes of capital outflows and reduction in borrowing ability of emerging markets. Sudden reversal of capital inflows and disruption in access to the international capital markets could be a threat for the domestic financial stability as in the case of Asian Crisis in 1997-1998. This paper analyses the behavior of external financing sources of Turkey, namely FX non-core liabilities of the banking system and portfolio flows, for periods 1995-2000 and 2004-2012. Our results show that unlike the 1995-2000 period, FX non-core liabilities of the banking system are very sensitive to the external financial stress during the 2004-2012 period. Portfolio flows decline in both cases but with a higher magnitude in the second period. Our results have important policy implications.
    Keywords: Financial stability, financial flows, FX non-core liabilities, VIX, Turkish banking secto
    JEL: F21 F41 G21
    Date: 2013
  3. By: M. Fatih Ekinci; Gazi Kabas; Enes Sunel
    Abstract: Estimating a robust and stable trend is an important challenge for economic analysis. We compare alternative approaches by estimating the cyclical component for the real exchange rate series of Turkey. Comparison criteria is the sensitivity of the estimated cycle to additional data points. A formal test reveals that cycle values obtained with all methods change substantially upon new data arrivals. To rank the performance of the methods, additional measures underlining the comovement of real-time cycles and the cyclical values with additional data, and the magnitude of end-point bias are developed. These criteria show that an unobserved components approach, which assumes trend and cycle innovations are orthogonal, and xes the share of trend shocks on the real depreciation rate fluctuations at 10 percent, dominates alternative filtering methods.
    Keywords: Trend-cycle decompositions, real exchange rates, stochastic trend
    JEL: C22 E37 F31
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun; Ramazan Karasahin; Gursu Keles
    Abstract: In this study, we measure systemic importance of individual banks that are listed in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Regarding the whole system as a portfolio of individual banks, we calculate the system-wide risk via contingent claims analysis. Using Shapley values, we assess the systemicimportance of each bank according to its marginal contribution to the calculated system wide risk measure, expected shortfall of the system. Our calculations reveal that market participants perceived 2000 and 2001 banking crises to be devastating for the Turkish banking sector. Since 2002, the banking sector seems to do a good job in eliminating idiosyn- cratic shocks within the system.
    Keywords: Systemic Risk, Contingent Claims Analysis, Shapley Value
    JEL: G10 G13 C71
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Syed Abul, Basher
    Abstract: While many commentators have been openly critical of China's currency policy on the basis of an undervalued renminbi, despite a similar surge in GCC's (Gulf Cooperation Council) balance of payment surpluses in the first decade of this century, the vast majority of the commentators have maintained a stony silence on the undervalued Gulf currencies. This underscores the geopolitics of currencies as a form of asymmetric warfare and the consequences of dollar, euro or renminbi diplomacy. This paper makes two main additions to the literature on Gulf monetary union. First, it emphasizes that the creation of a fiscal union is necessary for the Gulf monetary union to succeed. Second, it proposes some alternatives to pegging to the dollar, which would allow the GCC to absorb large swings in global commodity prices (oil, food) in the short to medium run. The proposed exchange rate regimes are not conditional on the formation of the Gulf monetary union, and can be implemented individually or collectively.
    Keywords: Fixed exchange rate; Currency basket; Fiscal union; Monetary union; Gulf Cooperation Council.
    JEL: E52 F36 F4
    Date: 2013–04–23

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