nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2013‒03‒02
five papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The Turkish Approach to Capital Flow Volatility By Yasin Akcelik; Erdem Basci; Ergun Ermisoglu; Arif Oduncu
  2. Female Labour Force Participation in MENA's Manufacturing Sector: The Implications of Firm-Related and National Factors By Fakih, Ali; Ghazalian, Pascal L.
  3. Regulation, Trust, and Cronyism in Middle Eastern Societies: The Simple Economics of 'Wasta' By Barnett, Andy; Yandle, Bruce; Naufal, George S
  4. Consumer Tendency Survey Based Inflation Expectations By Ece Oral
  5. Threshold of Preference for Collusion and Interconnection Fees in Different Market Structures : the Tunisian Mobile Market Case By Sami Debbichi; Walid Hichri

  1. By: Yasin Akcelik; Erdem Basci; Ergun Ermisoglu; Arif Oduncu
    Abstract: The shock waves of the 2008-09 global financial crisis and the 2011-12 Eurozone debt crisis hit emerging markets from the trade, the finance and the expectations channels. We focus on the finance channel in this paper. We first discuss the challenges arising from capital flow volatility in emerging economies in general. We then focus on the Turkish approach and describe in detail the new policy mix implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey during the 2008-2012 period and the results obtained. This approach differs from others in its emphasis on the use of macroprudential policy measures rather than capital flow measures for improving domestic financial stability in face of volatile capital flows.
    Keywords: Capital flow volatility, macroprudential policy, capital flow measures
    JEL: E44 E52 E58
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Fakih, Ali (Lebanese American University); Ghazalian, Pascal L. (University of Lethbridge)
    Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region falls behind several other geo-economic regions in terms of women's participation rates in the labour market. This paper examines the implications of firm-related and national factors for Female Labour Force Participation (FLFP) rates in manufacturing firms located in the MENA region. The empirical investigation uses data derived from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys database and applies fractional logit models to carry out the estimations. The results reveal positive implications of many firm-related factors, mainly private foreign ownership and exporting activities, for FLFP rates. National factors, such as economic development and gender equality, are also found to promote FLFP rates. These effects are generally found to be more important for women's overall labour participation rates than for women's non-production labour participation rates.
    Keywords: female labour force participation, fractional logit model, manufacturing firms, MENA region
    JEL: J16 J21 J23 J82
    Date: 2013–02
  3. By: Barnett, Andy (Auburn University); Yandle, Bruce (Clemson University); Naufal, George S (American University of Sharjah)
    Abstract: Despite being a fixture of everyday life in the Arab world, wasta, which may be thought of as special influence by members of the same group or tribe, has received little attention from social scientists. Our casual empiricism suggests that wasta is an important determinant of how economic activities are organized and resources are allocated in Middle Eastern societies, yet economists, even those who specialize in work related to the Middle East, have not addressed the issue of wasta. With this paper we provide a modest beginning to filling that void. Specifically, we use the history of wasta, Hayek's concept of extended order and Coase's work on the nature of the firm to draw inferences regarding the existence of wasta and its persistence in Arab societies.
    Keywords: cronyism, wasta, firm, Hayek, Coase, Middle East, social capital
    JEL: D21 K20 N45
    Date: 2013–02
  4. By: Ece Oral
    Abstract: The expectations obtained from surveys play an important role as leading indicators for the application of the monetary policies. The ability to measure inflation expectations is an integral part of central bank policy especially for central banks that are implementing inflation-targeting regime. A forward-looking perspective is essential to the success of inflation targeting. Therefore, a central bank having primary objective of price stability are interested in inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations obtained from surveys can be quantified into numerical indicators of the expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different quantification methods such as Carlson-Parkin method, balance method, regression method put into action in order to estimate Turkish consumer inflation predictions based on monthly consumer surveys. Carlson-Parkin method quantifies qualitative survey data on expectations assuming aggregate expectations are normally distributed. In order to capture non-normality, stable distributions are also considered. The quantification techniques are compared with each other as well.
    Keywords: Consumers, Inflation Expectations, Survey Data, Quantification Methods
    JEL: C10 C80 D84 E31
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Sami Debbichi (Unité de Recherche AEDD FSEGT, Campus universitaire El-MANAR 1060, TUNIS TUNISIE); Walid Hichri (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France ; Laboratoire de Recherche en Economie Quantitative du Développement (LAREQUAD) FSEGT, Campus universitaire El-MANAR 1060, TUNIS TUNISIE)
    Abstract: We present a Cournot model that compares the critical threshold of collusion in Duopoly and Oligopoly Markets where the actors are private, mixed or public. We assume that the incentive critical threshold for collusion depends on the interconnection fees. The different threshold values calculated in each Market structure are then estimated, using the OLS method, with variables related to the Tunisian market structures and prices. The Econometric estimation of the different threshold values is consistent with our theoretical results. Our findings can be used by the decision makers to control collusion, by acting on the level of interconnection fees for each market structure and by implementing the suitable market liberalization policies in this sector.
    Keywords: Interconnexion fees, Collusion, Market Structure, Private sector, Public Sctor, Tunisian Mobile Market
    JEL: L13 L51 L96
    Date: 2013

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