nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2013‒02‒16
eight papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Environmental Kuznets Curve for the Informal Sector of Turkey (1950-2009) By Ceyhun Elgin; Oguz Oztunali
  2. Reserve Options Mechanism and FX Volatility By Arif Oduncu; Yasin Akcelik; Ergun Ermisoglu
  3. Stock Return Comovement and Systemic Risk in the Turkish Banking System By Mahir Binici; Bulent Koksal; Cuneyt Orman
  4. Import Surveillance and Over Invoicing of Imports in Turkey By Zelal Aktas; Altan Aldan
  5. Quasi-Experimental Impact Estimates of Immigrant Labor Supply Shocks: The Role of Treatment and Comparison Group Matching and Relative Skill Composition By Aydemir, Abdurrahman; Kirdar, Murat G.
  6. Female Labor Force Participation in Pakistan and Some MENA Countries By Aboohamidi, Abbas; Chidmi, Benaissa
  7. A temporal analysis of wealth in eighteenth-century Ottoman Kastamonu By Metin M. Cosgel; Bogac A. Ergene; Atabey Kaygun
  8. “Law and Economics” Literature and Ottoman Legal Studies By Metin M. Cosgel; Bogac A. Ergene

  1. By: Ceyhun Elgin; Oguz Oztunali
    Date: 2013–05
  2. By: Arif Oduncu; Yasin Akcelik; Ergun Ermisoglu
    Abstract: Reserve Options Mechanism (ROM), which is the option to hold FX or gold reserves in increasing tranches in place of Turkish Lira reserve requirements of Turkish banks, was designed and launched by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). ROM is a tool unique to the CBRT and it is aimed to support the FX reserve management of the banking system and to limit the adverse effects of excess capital flow volatility on the macroeconomic and financial stability of Turkey. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of ROM on the volatility of Turkish Lira, and to the best of our knowledge, it is the first analytical paper on investigating the effects of the ROM. The results suggest that ROM is an effective policy tool in decreasing the volatility of Turkish lira in the sample period.
    Keywords: Reserve Options Mechanism, Volatility of Turkish Lira, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s Policy Mix, GARCH
    JEL: C12 C58 E58 G10
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Mahir Binici; Bulent Koksal; Cuneyt Orman
    Abstract: This paper investigates the evolution of systemic risk in the Turkish banking sector over the past two decades using comovement of banks’ stock returns as a systemic risk indicator. In addition, we explore possible determinants of systemic risk, the knowledge of which can be a useful input into effective macroprudential policymaking. Results show that the correlations between bank stock returns almost doubled in 2000s in comparison to 1990s. The correlations decreased somewhat after 2002 and increased again after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Main determinants of systemic risk appear to be the market share of bank pairs, the amount of nonperforming loans, herding behavior of banks, and volatilities of macro variables including the exchange rate, U.S. T-bills, EMBI+, VIX, and MSCI emerging markets index.
    Keywords: Stock Returns, Comovement, Systemic Risk, Turkish Banking System
    JEL: C22 C58 G21 G32
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Zelal Aktas; Altan Aldan
    Abstract: Turkey has been implementing import surveillance measures in order to protect its industry from unfair price cuts. One possible impact of the import surveillance mechanism is over invoicing of imports in order to avoid surveillance procedures since the procedures are applied to goods with prices under a predefined reference price. In this paper, we investigate whether import surveillance mechanism causes rise in the import figures due to over invoicing. We extend the mirror statistics methodology with panel data techniques using a highly disaggregated data set. Our results suggest that, import surveillance mechanism causes over invoicing and that import figures of Turkey are inflated by around 2 to 3 billion dollars as of 2011.
    Keywords: Mirror statistics; International trade statistics; import surveillance; net errors and omissions; Turkey; China
    JEL: F10 F13 F40
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Aydemir, Abdurrahman (Sabanci University); Kirdar, Murat G. (Middle East Technical University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the employment effects of a large burst of immigration – the politically-driven exodus of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria into Turkey in 1989. In some locations, the rise in the labor force due to this inflow of repatriates was 5 to 10 percent. A key feature of our context is the strong involvement of the Turkish state in the settlement of earlier waves of repatriates, which provides us a strong source of exogenous variation in the 1989 immigrant shock across locations and brings our study closer to an ideal natural experiment. Using a reservoir of 342 cities and towns in Turkey with variable treatment intensity, this analysis places much attention on constructing a matched sample that is well balanced in terms of covariate distributions of the treatment and comparison groups – using propensity score matching. We find a positive effect of repatriates on the unemployment of non-repatriates. In fact, a 1 percent increase in the labor force due to repatriates increases the unemployment rate of natives by 0.4 percentage points. When the analysis is done according to skill groups, we find that the impact is the strongest on the young and on non-repatriates with similar educational attainment.
    Keywords: labor force and employment, immigrant workers, quasi experiments
    JEL: J21 J61
    Date: 2013–01
  6. By: Aboohamidi, Abbas; Chidmi, Benaissa
    Abstract: The low-labor force participation rate of female in the MENA countries has been recognized and investigated by many researchers. The multidimensional nature of the issue demands a thorough investigation of different aspects of a region to better understand the factors that affect and, or influence the female labor force participation of that region. This study uses the main determinants found in the previous literature to examine their effects on labor force participation in 4 different countries from different regions but with similar characteristics. For our analysis, we use World Bank Data indicators 2011. We follow the data panel procedure to study the effect of factors, such as literacy rate, eduction, fertility rate, urbanization, trade openness, and per capita GDP on the rate of female labor participation; while accounting of the endogeneity of fertility and literacy rates. We study the effects of these variables using the pooled model, the fixed, and the random effects models. The results indicate that the fixed and random effects models outperform the pooled model. Moreover, the fixed effects and random effects models are equally appropriate in this case. The empirical results of the random effects model indicate that literacy and urbanization rates have a positive and significant effects on female labor participation. Variables such as fertility rate and per capita GDP have a negative and significant effects on female labor participation. Finally, female education enrollment and trade openness do not have a significant effect on FLFP in the countries considered in this study.
    Keywords: female labour force, Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut); Bogac A. Ergene (University of Vermont); Atabey Kaygun (Bahcesehir University)
    Abstract: This article studies temporal variations in wealth levels and distribution in an Ottoman context during the eighteenth century. By analysing the probate estate inventories of the Muslim deceased in Kastamonu, located in north-central Anatolia, we demonstrate that real wealth levels generally declined over the course of the century. Our analysis also suggests that the economic conditions of poor men, if not women, deteriorated more so than those of the rich, fuelling growing inequality. The article explores the factors that contributed to these trends and discusses the relevance of our findings for long-term economic development patterns in the region from a comparative perspective.
    Keywords: wealth, inequality, war, weather, Ottoman Empire
    JEL: D3 D6 E3 E6 I3 J1 N3 N9 O53
    Date: 2013–02
  8. By: Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut); Bogac A. Ergene (University of Vermont)
    Abstract: This article considers the relevance of hypotheses developed in the "law and economics" literature regarding settlement/trial decisions in the Ottoman Empire. In particular, it explores the applicability of the "selection principle" and "50 percent plaintiff win-rate" formulated by George Priest and Benjamin Klein. The article also demonstrates how existing research based on Ottoman court records can contribute to the "law and economics" scholarship, which is dominated by research based on modern, Western contexts. The article utilizes the court records from eighteenth-century Kastamonu to make observations about settlement/litigation decisions in an Ottoman context.
    Keywords: Islamic law, legal system, selection principle, Ottoman Empire, Kastamonu, litigation, settlement, trial
    JEL: D3 D6 E3 E6 I3 J1 N3 N9 O53
    Date: 2013–02

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