nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2013‒01‒26
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Developing Economies with Industrial Policy: Towards a Toolbox for Economic Growth. With Case Studies of Jordan and Egypt By Benner, Maximilian
  2. Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia By Hachicha, Ahmed; Wen, Ming-Chang
  3. Macroeconomic shocks and banking sector developments in Egypt By Herrera, Santiago; Youssef, Hoda

  1. By: Benner, Maximilian
    Abstract: During the past two decades, the “Washington Consensus” has been the dominant recipe for unleashing economic growth in developing countries. In view of the strong criticism mounted against it, it seems to have lost prominence recently. The success of the East Asian newly industrialized economies and recently of China is often seen as an alternative way towards economic development. However, most instruments stipulated in the Washington Consensus can be reconciled with successful measures employed by industrialized or fastly industrializing Asian economies. Most likely, the stability and market orientation of the Washington Consensus as a recommendation for developing countries is not wrong in itself but rather incomplete. In order to give developing countries a perspective for durable and preferably inclusive growth, it must be complemented by a modern and market-oriented industrial policy aimed at upgrading the economy's competitiveness. Such a “newer” industrial policy offers a host of instruments that can enhance economic growth in a generally favorable macroeconomic framework that can be achieved through the Washington Consensus. This article undertakes to integrate industrial policy in a comprehensive toolbox for economic growth and takes Jordan and Egypt as examples for how industrial policy measures are employed in practice.
    Keywords: economic growth; industrial policy; regional policy; development policy; Washington Consensus; Jordan; Egypt
    JEL: N45 O25 O10 N35 O53 E60 L52 O20 L53
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Hachicha, Ahmed; Wen, Ming-Chang
    Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia using real and nominal data. GARCH-in-mean model with lagged variance equation is employed for the analysis. The result shows that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation only in the real term. Moreover, inflation uncertainty Granger-causes inflation and economic growth respectively. These results have important implications for the monetary policy in Tunisia. --
    Keywords: GARCH-M model,inflation,inflation uncertainty,output
    JEL: C22 E31
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Herrera, Santiago; Youssef, Hoda
    Abstract: From 2008 to 2011, Egypt was hit by significant shocks, both global and country-specific. This paper assesses the impact of the resulting macroeconomic instability on the banking sector, and examines its role as a shock absorber. The Central Bank of Egypt accommodated the shocks by supplying liquidity to the market. The paper verifies a change in the fiscal regime from one in which the primary fiscal balance was used an instrument to stabilize the public debt ratio to one in which the policy instrument stopped playing that role and affected investors'assessment of the risk of holding public debt. This pattern suggests that fiscal conditions influenced exchange rate and price expectations originating a fiscal dominance situation in which the Central Bank could not control inflation. Hence, the Central Bank lacked functional independence in spite of its de jure independence, which underscores the importance of strengthening institutions that facilitate policy coordination and allow policy to be more predictable. The government also funds itself through non-market mechanisms, in a typical financial repression scheme. The paper estimates the revenue from financial repression at about 2.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, which together with the revenues from seignoriage add up to close to 50 percent of the budgeted tax revenues, indicating the need for an in-depth review of the governance of the public banks and the funding of public sector activities. Finally, the paper estimates the impact of shocks to macroeconomic variables on loan portfolio quality and bank capital.
    Keywords: Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Currencies and Exchange Rates
    Date: 2013–01–01

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