nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2013‒01‒12
seven papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Economics Research Ranking Place of Turkey in Europe By Halicioglu, Ferda
  2. Turkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Iktisadi Dongulere Duyarliligi By Ali Culha
  3. Which Money Market Instrument is Better at Representing Market Expectations on Short-Term Rates? (Para Piyasasi Enstrumanlarinin Kisa Vadeli Faize Dair Piyasa Beklentilerini Temsil Kabiliyetleri) By Ibrahim Burak Kanli
  4. Reserve Options Mechanism and Computation of Reserve Options Coefficients (Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizmasi ve Optimal Rezerv Opsiyonu Katsayilarinin Hesaplanmasi) By Doruk Kucuksarac; Ozgur Ozel
  5. Economic ideas of a nineteenth century Tunisian statesman: Khayr al-Din al-Tunisi By Islahi, Abdul Azim
  6. Nowcasting Turkish GDP Growth By Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun; Mahmut Gunay
  7. The ‘Knowledge Economy’-finance nexus: how do IPRs matter in SSA and MENA countries? By Simplice A, Asongu

  1. By: Halicioglu, Ferda
    Abstract: This research article evaluates the research rankings of economists and economics departments of Turkey with respect to the top 10 economists and departments in Europe using RePEc data base as of December 2012. This article also provides some useful policy recommendations for improving the research rankings of Turkish economists and economics institutions.
    Keywords: Research Ranking; Economics; Turkey; Europe
    JEL: A20 A2 A10
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Ali Culha
    Abstract: [TR] Vergi gelirleri otomatik dengeleyiciler araciligiyla iktisadi dongulerden buyuk olcude etkilenmekte, bu da butce performansi uzerinde belirleyici bir oneme sahip olmaktadir. Bu notta, Turkiye’de iktisadi dongulerin vergi gelirleri uzerindeki etkisinin yonu ve buyuklugu, bir baska ifadeyle vergi gelirlerinin reel Gayri Safi Yurt Ici Hasila (GSYIH)’ye gore dongusel ozellikleri, cesitli istatistiki ve ekonometrik teknikler kullanilarak olculmeye calisilmaktadir. Calismadan elde edilen bulgular, Turkiye’de vergi gelirleri kalemlerinin es-dongusel oldugunu ve iktisadi dongulerden onemli olcude etkilendigini gostermektedir. Buna ilaveten, vergi gelirlerinin oynakliginin reel GSYIH’ye gore daha yuksek oldugu ve vergi geliri kalemleri ile reel GSYIH arasinda genel olarak esanli bir iliskinin oldugu gozlenmektedir. [EN] Business cycles may have significant effects on tax revenues through automatic stabilizers, which in turn lead to important repercussions on the budget performance. This note attempts to assess the direction and the magnitude of the effects of the business cycles on tax revenues in Turkey. In other words, cyclical properties of tax revenues with respect to real GDP have been analyzed by utilizing a number of statistical and econometric techniques. The findings of the study show that tax revenues in Turkey are procyclical and they are affected from business cycles to a great extent. In addition, it is observed that the volatility of tax revenues as regards the real GDP appears to be higher and there exists in general a contemporaneous correlation between tax revenues and the real GDP.
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Ibrahim Burak Kanli
    Abstract: [EN] This note aims to serve two purposes. First, it evaluates the ability of various financial market instruments to capture market expectations on short-term rate. Second, it utilizes an alternative approach to obtain estimates of term premium inherent in alternative returns. Empirical results reveal that Turkish lira (TRY) returns implied by USD/TRY forward rates dominate all other return types for predicting the overnight interbank repo rate, followed closely by TRY returns in USD/TRY swap agreements and TRY interbank bid rate. Moreover, these return types are found to contain the lowest and least volatile term premium. However, forecasting ability of returns declines significantly with the introduction of the new policy framework by the Central Bank of Turkey, which utilizes “controlled degree of uncertainty” in o/n rates as an additional tool. In the recent period TRY interbank bid and ask rates stand out as returns with the highest ability to represent market expectations at short horizon. [TR] Bu not iki amaca odaklanmaktadir. Ilk olarak, cesitli finansal enstrumanlarin kisa vadeli para piyasasi faizine dair piyasa beklentilerini temsil yetenekleri incelenmektedir. Ikinci olarak ise, analize dahil edilen getirilerin icerdikleri vade priminin elde edilmesine yonelik alternatif bir yontem sunulmaktadir. Sonuclar ABD dolari/Turk lirasi (TL) vadeli doviz sozlesmelerinden elde edilen TL getirilerinin gecelik para piyasasi faizini tahmin gucunun diger getiri cesitlerinin uzerinde oldugunu; bu getiri cesidini ABD dolari/TL kur takasi sozlesmelerinden elde edilen TL getirisinin ve TL Bankalararasi Alis Oraninin (TRLIBID) takip ettigini ortaya koymaktadir. Buna ek olarak, soz konusu getiri cesitlerinin icerdikleri vade priminin, diger getirilere kiyasla daha dusuk ve istikrarli olduklari sonucuna ulasilmistir. Ne var ki, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi’nin, gecelik para piyasasinda “kontrollu belirsizligi” bir araç olarak kullanmaya basladigi yeni para politikasi cercevesiyle birlikte getirilerin tahmin gucleri belirgin bicimde azalmaktadir. Soz konusu donemde TL Bankalararasi Alis ve Satis Oranlari (TRLIBID ve TRLIBOR) kisa vadede piyasa beklentilerini temsil gucu en yuksek getiri cesitleri olarak on plana cikmaktadir.
    Date: 2012
  4. By: Doruk Kucuksarac; Ozgur Ozel
    Abstract: [EN] This note evaluates the option to hold Turkish lira reserves in foreign currency and gold within the context of reserve options mechanism (ROM). We exemplify calculation of reserve options coefficient(s) leaving banks indifferent between the reserve option and other main funding sources that can be used for holding reserve requirements. The breakeven reserve options coefficient(s) mainly depends on interest rates on foreign currency and Turkish lira funds, Libor, Turkish lira swap rates and reserve requirement ratio on foreign funds. The breakeven reserve options coefficient(s) are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates on funds denominated in foreign currency. [TR] Bu notta son donemde TCMB tarafindan aktif bir politika araci olarak kullanilan rezerv opsiyonu mekanizmasi (ROM) kapsaminda TCMB’nin Turk lirasi zorunlu karsiliklar icin doviz ve altin bulundurma imkani degerlendirilmistir. Daha sonra imkani diger fonlama maliyetleriyle kayitsiz birakan rezerv opsiyonu katsayi degerlerinin hesaplanma yontemi ele alinmis ve bu hususta bir ornek sunulmustur. Kritik katsayi degerlerinin temel olarak; yabanci para ve Turk lirasi fon bulma maliyetlerine, Libor faiz oranina, Turk lirasi swap faiz oranina ve yabanci para zorunlu karsilik oranina bagli oldugu gozlenmektedir. Katsayi degerinin ozellikle yabanci para cinsi borclanma maliyetlerine hassas oldugu dikkat cekmektedir.
    Date: 2012
  5. By: Islahi, Abdul Azim
    Abstract: Khayr al-Din al-Tunisi, a nineteenth century Tunisian scholar and statesman, thought and worked for her politico-economic strengthening and uplift of Tunisia. He was much impressed by the political system of the West and endeavored to create similar political institutions in his own country. In his work Aqwam al-Masalik fi Ma`rifat Ahwal al-Mamalik (The Surest Path to Knowledge Concerning the Condition of Countries) discussed the economic superiority of the West and offered an agenda for Tunisia to improve its economic and political system. Al-Tunisi’s economic ideas appear quite close to the classical European political economy.
    Keywords: Economic ideas of Khair al-din al-Tunisi; History of Islamic Economic thought; Muslim Economic thinking in the 19th century; Maslahah; Capitulation; Ottomans
    JEL: B10 B31 B00
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun; Mahmut Gunay
    Abstract: In this paper we present backcasts and nowcasts for quarter on quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Turkish economy. GDP growth is one of the most important economic indicators since GDP figures provide comprehensive information regarding the economic activity. GDP data are published with considerable delay, so early estimates of GDP growth may be valuable. For this aim, we use an extended version of the Stock and Watson coincident indicator model that can deal with mixed frequency (such as quarterly and monthly variables), ragged ends (some indicators are published before others), and missing data (data may not be available at the beginning of the sample for some variables). As soft data we use PMI, and as hard data we use industrial production, import and export quantity indices. We perform simulated out of sample forecasting exercise by taking the ?ow of data releases for 2008Q1-2012Q2 into account. Results show that nowcasts obtained with a model including a soft indicator tracks the GDP growth relatively successfully. Also, the model outperforms benchmark AR model.
    Keywords: Time Series, Forecasting, Output Growth
    JEL: C22 C53 E37
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Simplice A, Asongu
    Abstract: This paper assesses the relevance of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in the knowledge economy (KE)-finance nexus using the four variables identified under the World Bank’s knowledge economy index (KEI) and seven financial intermediary dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size. Three main findings are established: (1) education increases financial dynamics of depth and size; (2) economic incentives by means of credit facilities (trade openness) mitigate financial dynamics of efficiency and activity (financial dynamics of depth and size) and; (3) ICT and FDI both improve financial depth and decrease financial size (with FDI having an additional edge of improving financial activity). As a policy implication, the enforcement of IPRs is not a general and sufficient condition for positive KE-finance nexuses. Hence, blanket upholding of IPRs to achieve such positive linkages may not be successful unless policy is contingent on the prevailing ‘KE specific component’ trends and dynamics of financial development.
    Keywords: Financial development; Knowledge economy; Intellectual property rights
    JEL: O38 O10 O34 K42 P48
    Date: 2013–01–01

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