nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2012‒12‒06
three papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt By Aamer S. Abu-Qarn; Yasmine M. Abdelfattah; J. Paul Dunne; Shadwa Zaher
  2. Political Economy of Arab Revolutions: analysis and prospects for North-African Countries. By Mouhoud, El Mouhoub
  3. Environmental Kuznets Curve in an Open Economy: A Bounds Testing and Causality Analysis for Tunisia By Muhammad, Shahbaz; Naceur , Khraief; Gazi Salah , Uddin

  1. By: Aamer S. Abu-Qarn (Ben Gurion University of the Negev); Yasmine M. Abdelfattah (British University in Egypt); J. Paul Dunne (University of Cape Town, RSA); Shadwa Zaher (British University in Egypt)
    Abstract: Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region, showing considerable variation over the last forty years. These characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the determinants of military spending. This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking into account important strategic and political factors. Both economic and strategic factors are found to play a role in determining military burden/spending, with clear positive effects of lagged military burden, suggesting some sort of institutional inertia, plus negative output and net exports effects. The strategic effect as a result of the impact of Israel’s military burden is mostly positive and significant, though its impact is reduced when the impact of important strategic events are taken into account. The military spending of Egypt’s allies Jordan and Syria generally seems to have had no effect on Egypt’s spending. These results are consistent over a range of econometric techniques.
    Keywords: Egypt, demand for military expenditure, political determinants, strategic determinants, cointegration
    JEL: H56 O53
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Mouhoud, El Mouhoub
    Abstract: Des similitudes expliquent la diffusion du processus révolutionnaire arabe : une polarisation sectorielle des économies, une gestion rentière des ressources, des taux d’emplois faibles et des taux d’expatriation de qualifiés anormalement élevés. Enfin, un même pacte externe avec les puissances occidentales et interne entre les élites. Ces pactes ont implosé. Cet article propose de nouvelles directions pour ces économies, combinant intégration régionale et stratégie de rattrapage par les services.
    Abstract: Several similarities explain the spread of the Arab revolutionary process : the polarization of economies to limited sectors, a rentier-based management of resources, very low employment rates and extremely high rates of skilled migration. Finally, a similar external pact with the Western powers, and an inner pact between elites that have both imploded. This article suggests new directions for these economies that would combine regional integration and a catch-up strategy via service activities.
    Keywords: Economie politique; Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord; révolutions arabes; chômage; éducation supérieure; corruption; pacte interne et externe; political economy; Middle East and North Africa; unemployment; tertiary education; internal and international pact;
    JEL: O15 O55 P52 P59
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Muhammad, Shahbaz; Naceur , Khraief; Gazi Salah , Uddin
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the existence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in an open economy like Tunisia using annual time series data for the period of 1971-2010. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to test long run relationship in the presence of structural breaks and vector error correction model (VECM) to detect the causality among the variables. The robustness of causality analysis has been tested by applying the innovative accounting approach (IAA). The findings of this paper confirmed the long run relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness and CO2 emissions in Tunisian Economy. The results also indicated the existence of EKC confirmed by the VECM and IAA approaches. The study has significant contribution for policy implications to curtail energy pollutants by implementing environment friendly regulations to sustain the economic development in Tunisia.
    Keywords: EKC; Energy; Tunisia
    JEL: O1 Q4
    Date: 2012–11–01

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