nep-ara New Economics Papers
on Arab World
Issue of 2012‒11‒11
eleven papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Financial Conditions Indices for the Turkish Economy (Turkiye Ekonomisi icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi) By A. Hakan Kara; Pinar Ozlu; Deren Unalmis
  2. Ek Parasal Sikilastirma’nin Doviz Kurlari Uzerindeki Etkisi By Yasin Akcelik; Ergun Ermisoglu; Arif Oduncu; Temel Taskin
  3. Turkiye’de Altin : Dis Ticaret, Cari Islemler Dengesi ve Buyume Uzerine Etkisi By Zelal Aktas; Altan Aldan; M. Faruk Aydin; Ihsan Bozok; Ibrahim Burak Kanli
  4. Consumer choice and local network effects in mobile telecommunications in Turkey By Karaçuka, Mehmet; Çatik, A. Nazif; Haucap, Justus
  5. The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles By Cashin, P.; Mohaddes, K.; Raissi, M.
  6. Female Labour Force Participation in Arab Countries: The Role of Identity By Tobias Caris; Bernd Hayo
  7. Les enjeux du développement et de la gestion du gaz naturel dans les villes tunisiennes : cas de l'agglomération de Sfax By Hugo Bolzon
  8. L'impact de la présence des comités d'audit sur la performance financière des entreprises tunisiennes By Zied Bouaziz; Mohamed Triki
  9. Bringing Work Back In Islamic Ethic By Possumah, Bayu Taufiq; Ismail, Abdul Ghafar; Shahida , Shahimi
  10. Les déterminants du succès entrepreneurial ; Une étude empirique de la région de Sfax en Tunisie By Younes Ben Zaied; Siagh Ahmed Ramzi
  11. A comparative assessment of labor market nationalization policies in the GCC. By Hertog, Steffen

  1. By: A. Hakan Kara; Pinar Ozlu; Deren Unalmis
    Abstract: Since the end of 2010, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has adopted a new policy strategy which jointly uses liquidity, credit, and interest rate policies. The new framework has increased the need to develop and monitor a broad measure of “financial conditions” index that would complement the monetary policy analysis in assessing whether the overall set of policies are restrictive or accommodative. This note seeks to fill this gap by developing financial conditions indices for Turkey using a range of monetary and financial indicators.
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Yasin Akcelik; Ergun Ermisoglu; Arif Oduncu; Temel Taskin
    Abstract: [TR] Kuresel finansal krizin ardindan, merkez bankalarinin fiyat istikrarinin yani sira finansal istikrari da gozetmeleri farkli politika araclarinin kullanimini gerekli kilmistir. Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi tarafindan son donemde kullanilan politika araclarindan bir tanesi de Ek Parasal Sikilastirma olmustur. Bu aracin doviz kurlari uzerindeki etkisi bu calismanin konusunu teskil etmektedir. Elde edilen sonuclar, ek parasal sikilastirmanin doviz kuru oynakligini dusurucu yonde belirgin bir etkisinin oldugunu gostermektedir. Calismada ayrica, ek parasal sikilastirma yapilan gunlerde Turk Lirasi’nin gelismekte olan ulke kurlarina kiyasla degerlendigi gosterilmistir. [EN] Since the global financial crisis, Central Banks have used various policy tools to sustain financial stability besides price stability. Additional Monetary Tightening is one of these tools that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has started to use recently. The effect of this tool on the exchange rate is the main theme of this note. Our analysis indicates that additional monetary tightening has a significant role in reducing volatility in the exchange rate. We also show that during the days of additional tightening Turkish Lira appreciated against the emerging market currencies.
    Date: 2012
  3. By: Zelal Aktas; Altan Aldan; M. Faruk Aydin; Ihsan Bozok; Ibrahim Burak Kanli
    Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada son donemde artan altin ihracatinin dis ticaret rakamlari ve endeksleri, cari islemler dengesi ve buyume uzerine etkileri incelenmistir. Bunun yaninda, gerek net doviz pozisyonunun hesaplanmasi gerekse onumuzdeki donemde altin ihracatinin surdurulebilirliginin bir gostergesi olmasi acisindan, Turkiye icin altin stoku tahmini yapilmistir. 1984 yilindan bu yana Turkiye’de onemli miktarda altin stoku (en az 2189 ton) biriktirildigi tahmin edilmektedir. Parasal olmayan altin kaleminin ihracat fiyat endeksine dahil edilmezken ithalat fiyat endeksine dahil edilmesi nedeniyle, dis ticaret endekslerinin yorumlanmasinda soz konusu durumun dikkate alinmasi geregi degerlendirilmistir. Altin fiyatlarinda son yillarda gozlenen hizli yukselisin net altin ithalatcisi olunan 2011’de cari islemler acigini genisletici, net altin ihracatcisi olunan 2012 yilinda ise cari islemler acigini daraltici etkisi oldugu gorulmektedir. Son olarak, 2012 yilinda altin net dis talebinin karsilanmasinda yurt ici uretimin payinin çok dusuk oldugu ve dolayisiyla altin ihracatinin GSYIH yillik buyumesine katkisinin sinirli oldugu tahmin edilmektedir. [EN] This note examines the impact of recent hikes in gold exports on foreign trade figures and indices, current account balance and economic growth. Besides, Turkey’s gold stock is estimated to account for the net foreign exchange position and to make inference on the sustainability of gold exports. Turkey is projected to accumulate significant amount of gold stock (2189 tons at minimum) since 1984. The exclusion of non-monetary gold item in the export price index measurements generates need for a cautious interpretation of the foreign trade indices. The upward trend in gold prices in the last years have a widening effect on the current account deficit in 2011, when Turkey was a net gold importer and a contractionary effect on 2012, when Turkey was a net gold exporter. Finally, as recent hikes in gold exports are met basically by imports, the impact of gold export increase on growth is presumed to be restricted.
    Date: 2012
  4. By: Karaçuka, Mehmet; Çatik, A. Nazif; Haucap, Justus
    Abstract: Turkish consumer survey data is used to analyze the main factors that affect consumers' choice of different mobile telecommunications networks. The analysis shows that consumers' choice is significantly affected by the choices of other consumers with whom the consumer is more likely to interact. The results show that local network effects exist and consumer characteristics have significant effects on consumer choice. This finding means that consumers are more likely to be affected by the choices of other people within their local area than by the overall size of a network. The results also suggest that local effects may outweigh macro network effects at least in Turkey. --
    Keywords: mobile telecommunications,network effects,discrete choice analysis
    JEL: C23 L13 L9
    Date: 2012
  5. By: Cashin, P.; Mohaddes, K.; Raissi, M.
    Abstract: This paper analyses spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.
    Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR), interconnectedness, global macroeconomic modeling, impulse responses, macroeconomic shocks, international business cycle.
    JEL: C32 E17 E32 F44 O53 Q41
    Date: 2012–11–01
  6. By: Tobias Caris (University of Marburg); Bernd Hayo (University of Marburg)
    Abstract: We investigate why female labour market participation is low in the Arab region. Utilising Akerlof and Kranton’s (2000) ‘identity economics’ approach, we show in a simple gametheoretic framework that women socialised in a traditional family environment violate their identities by taking a job. In the empirical analysis, we study the respective impact of two determinants of identity in the Arab region, Islam and cultural tradition. Employing two waves of the World Values Survey, we find significant evidence that identity affects female labour market participation. Moreover, our estimates suggest that in the Arab region, Muslim women do not participate in the labour market less than non-Muslim women, whereas those with strong traditional identities have a 7 percentage point lower probability of entering the labour market.
    Keywords: Female labour market participation, Arab region, Islam, Identity, Religion
    JEL: J16 J21 Z12 Z13 O53
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Hugo Bolzon (IUL - Institut d'urbanisme de Lyon - Université Lumière - Lyon II, EVS - Environnement Ville Société - CNRS : UMR5600 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - École Normale Supérieure - Lyon)
    Abstract: Ce mémoire vient questionner l'accès à l'énergie en Tunisie par le cas du développement du réseau de gaz naturel dans l'agglomération sfaxienne. À la croisée de thématiques comme les services urbains en réseau ou encore la ville durable dans les pays arabes, l'enjeu est ici d'analyser les logiques d'accès à l'énergie dans une perspective de rétroaction entre le local et le national. La problématique de l'efficience énergétique dans les villes tunisiennes doit être appréhendée dans toute sa globalité, afin de déterminer clairement quelles sont les causes des difficultés rencontrées. La diminution des ressources énergétiques par rapport à la demande croissante et la saisie du concept de développement durable sont à l'origine d'une nouvelle orientation de la politique énergétique tunisienne, dont les villes sont le support privilégié. L'application de ces mesures se révèle parfois bien éloignée des effets d'annonce, notamment en ce qui concerne le paramètre de durabilité, nouveau fourre-tout constamment invoqué par les décideurs politiques. En conséquence, les modalités d'accès à l'énergie s'en trouvent modifiées, et constituent un nouveau lieu de discrimination sociale ; peut-on pour autant parler de fragmentation urbaine ?
    Keywords: fragmentation urbaine, services urbains en réseau, développement durable, gaz naturel, politique énergétique, accès à l'énergie, agglomération sfaxienne, Tunisie, splintering urbanism, urban network services, sustainable development, natural gas, energy policy, energy access, Sfax, Tunisia
    Date: 2012–09–14
  8. By: Zied Bouaziz (ESC - Faculté des sciences de Sfax); Mohamed Triki (ESC - Faculté des sciences de Sfax)
    Abstract: Le comité d'audit joue un rôle crucial dans la protection des intérêts des actionnaires et des autres parties prenantes. En effet, son efficacité est subordonnée à ses caractéristiques qui se rapportent essentiellement sur l'indépendance de ses membres, la taille du Comité, la fréquence des réunions et l'expertise des membres du comité d'audit. En effet, nous avons essayé d'appréhender l'effet des caractéristiques du comité d'audit sur la performance financière mesurée par le rendement de l'actif ROA et le rendement des fonds propres ROE. Pour tester la validité de nos hypothèses, qui stipulent l'existence d'un certain déterminisme des caractéristiques du comité d'audit sur la performance financière mesurée par le ROA et le ROE, nous avons développé deux modèles de régressions linéaires. Dans le même sillon, nous examinons l'effet des caractéristiques du comité d'audit sur chacune des variables endogènes tout en prenant en compte l'impact de la taille de l'entreprise ainsi que le niveau d'endettement. Notre validation empirique à été conduite sur un échantillon de 26 entreprises tunisiennes cotées sur la bourse des valeurs mobilières de Tunis (BVMT) sur une période qui s'étale sur 4 ans (2007-2010). Les modèles estimés font apparaître des résultats satisfaisant montrant ainsi l'importance de l'impact des caractéristiques du comité d'audit sur la performance financière des entreprises tunisiennes.
    Keywords: comité d'audit - indépendance des membres du comité d'audit - fréquence des réunions - Return On Assets - Return On Equity
    Date: 2012–10–24
  9. By: Possumah, Bayu Taufiq; Ismail, Abdul Ghafar; Shahida , Shahimi
    Abstract: Religion and work are seldom discussed. The two have caused scholars to question the religion’s role with work. This paper reviews research on the integrate between religion and work by examining issues of concept, definition, measurement, and reviewing research that examines the relationship of work and religion with respect to: different times, types of people, organize human interactions and sources of knowledge. We then discuss the methodological requirement for reintegrating work studies into social institutional theory and indicate what the conceptual payoffs of such integration might be. These payoffs include breaking new conceptual ground, resolving theoretical puzzles and envisioning the nature of new social institutions.
    Keywords: Work Islam Ethic
    JEL: J81 J40 J24 A10 J53 J30
    Date: 2012–01–12
  10. By: Younes Ben Zaied (Université de Rennes 1 - CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France & Université de Tunis-Elmanar- LAREQUAD, Tunisie); Siagh Ahmed Ramzi (Université Kasdi-Merbah Ouergla, Algérie)
    Abstract: Dans cet article, nous nous intéressons aux comportements de l’entrepreneur de la région de Sfax en Tunisie  qui est connu par son dynamisme, sa motivation et sa créativité. Pour ce faire, nous avons mené une analyse statistique appliquée basée sur les modèles d’équations structurelles estimés par la méthode PLS. Notre investigation empirique nous a amené à conclure que les caractéristiques individuelles, la capacité entrepreneuriale et la motivation de l’entrepreneur sfaxien sont les facteurs clés qui déterminent son succès remarquable par rapport aux entrepreneurs des autres régions en Tunisie. Cette étude nous permet de dresser une image de l’entrepreneuriat en Tunisie spécialement dans une région particulièrement concentrée vers le business, afin de soulever un constat sur les prototypes d’entrepreneurs émergeant dans cette région. Un tel constat soulève des idées et questions intéressantes au regard des institutions financières, d’investissement et des politiques d’accompagnement et de soutien proposées par l’Etat.
    Keywords: PME, entrepreneurs, succès, PLS, variables latentes
    JEL: L26 D87
    Date: 2012–10
  11. By: Hertog, Steffen
    Date: 2012–09

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