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on Arab World |
| By: | Rauf Gönenç; Oliver Röhn; Vincent Koen; Şeref Saygili |
| Abstract: | Turkey can achieve strong sustainable growth and job creation but further reforms in the labour market, education and product markets are required for such gains to materialise. In recent years, growth has been largely driven by the industrial catch-up of Anatolian regions, although the Marmara area in the West has also been very dynamic. In the process, labour force participation has started to rise anew, but around one third of new low-skilled jobs have been created in the informal sector. Sustaining vigorous growth over the longer run therefore requires pushing ahead with a number of structural reforms. First, Turkey’s rigid labour market regulation needs to evolve, so as to encourage job creation in the formal sector. Second, further progress with education reform, from pre-school all the way to the tertiary level and vocational training, is needed to boost growth and bring about employment gains in the formal sector. Third, implementing product market reforms, notably in network industries, would unleash productivity gains in those sectors and be a boost to the rest of the economy. A set of alternative growth scenarios through 2030 illustrates how progress on these various fronts can deliver lasting improvements in living standards. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).<P>Des réformes structurelles pour stimuler la croissance à long terme en Turquie<BR>La Turquie a les moyens d’une croissance rapide et durable riche en emplois, mais des réformes s’imposent en matière de – marché du travail, d’éducation et de marchés de produits –pour que ce potentiel se concrétise. Le rattrapage industriel des régions d’Anatolie a largement tiré la croissance de ces dernières années, même si la région de Marmara, à l’ouest, a elle aussi été très dynamique. Accompagnant ce processus, la participation au marché du travail est repartie à la hausse, mais environ un tiers des nouveaux emplois peu qualifiés ont été créés dans l’économie informelle. Maintenir un rythme de croissance vigoureux sur longue période nécessite donc de faire avancer un certain nombre de réformes structurelles. Tout d’abord, la réglementation du marché du travail, rigide, doit évoluer de façon à encourager la création d’emplois dans l’économie formelle. Ensuite, il faut aller plus loin encore dans les réformes de l’éducation, de l’enseignement préscolaire à l’enseignement supérieur et à la formation professionnelle, pour dynamiser la croissance et favoriser les créations d’emplois dans le secteur formel. Enfin, la mise en oeuvre de réformes des marchés de produits, notamment dans les industries de réseau, devrait permettre de libérer des gains de productivité dans ces secteurs et insuffler une dynamique au reste de l’économie. Différents scénarios de croissance à l’horizon 2030 montrent comment les avancées sur ces différents fronts peuvent engendrer une amélioration durable du niveau de vie. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la Turquie, 2012 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey). |
| Keywords: | growth, employment protection legislation, productivity, competition, education, Turkey, informality, labour market, législation sur la protection de l'emploi, productivité, croissance, marché du travail, éducation, concurrence, Turquie, informalité |
| JEL: | H11 I25 J2 J3 J41 J65 O11 O15 O17 O18 O4 O52 |
| Date: | 2012–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:987-en&r=ara |
| By: | Oliver Röhn |
| Abstract: | Turkey’s current account deficit widened to almost 10% of GDP in 2011 and has been narrowing only gradually since. An important question is to what extent Turkey’s current account deficit is excessive. To explore this issue, one needs to establish benchmarks. In this paper current account benchmarks are derived using the external sustainability as well as the macroeconomic balance approach. However, the standard macroeconomic balance approach ignores the uncertainty inherent in the model selection process given the relatively large number of possible determinants of current account balances. This paper therefore extends the macroeconomic balance approach to account for model uncertainty by using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques. Results from both approaches suggest that current account benchmarks for the current account deficit lie in the range of 3% to 5½ per cent of GDP, which is broadly in line with previous estimates but substantially below recent current account deficit levels. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Turkey (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey).<P>Des repères pour la balance courante en Turquie<BR>Le déficit de la balance des opérations courantes de la Turquie s'est creusé pour atteindre près de 10 % du PIB en 2011 et n’a rétréci que très graduellement depuis. Il importe de déterminer dans quelle mesure ce déficit est excessif. Pour explorer la question, des repères doivent être établis. Ce document de travail calcule et propose de tels repères, à partir des méthodes de viabilité de la balance courante, et d’équilibre macroéconomique. La méthode standard d’équilibre macroéconomique ne tient cependant pas compte de l’incertitude inhérente au processus de sélection du modèle, vu le nombre important de déterminants possibles de la balance des opérations courantes. Ce document élargit la méthode d’équilibre macroéconomique afin de tenir compte de cette incertitude, en utilisant les techniques de choix de modèles par estimateur Bayesien. Les résultats obtenus à partir des deux méthodes suggèrent que les repères de balance courante pour la Turquie pourraient se situer entre 3% et 5½ pour cent du PIB, en ligne avec les estimations précédentes mais nettement en-dessous des récents niveaux de déficit du compte courant. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la Turquie, 2012 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/turkey). |
| Keywords: | Turkey, current account, Bayesian model averaging, model uncertainty, external sustainability, current account benchmarks, Turquie, balance courante, choix de modèles par estimateur Bayésien, incertitude des modèles, viabilité des comptes extérieurs, repères pour la balance courante |
| JEL: | C11 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2012–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:988-en&r=ara |
| By: | Sepideh Yousefzadeh (Research Fellow, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, sepideh.yousefzadeh@maastrichtuniversity.nl); Franziska Gassmann (Senior Researcher, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, franziska.gassmann@maastrichtuniversity.nl) |
| Abstract: | TThree decades have passed since the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the country has gone through various waves of changes in its economic, political, social and cultural systems. In 1980, one year after the revolution, the Iran-Iraq war started. A war, which lasted eight years and towards its last years, claimed more than 70% of the country’s revenue (Ehsani 1994). In the same period, large waves of emigration were also in process, leaving the industry sectors to the mid-level managers and staff with less specialized skills to run the industry. The international embargo started soon after the revolution and made it even harder for the country’s economy to keep up with the above-mentioned shocks. Many scholars compare the country’s GDP before and after the revolution with South Korea and Turkey (that had similar GDPs growth rates at the time) to show the large contrasts and the extent of changes that Iran has gone through. Between 1960 and 1977, GDP per capita grew at 6.6% per year. However, in 1988, after the Iran-Iraq war, per capita fell to one-half of its level in 1977 and in 2005, it went back to its level before the revolution (Salehi-Isfahani 2009). Shortly after the revolution rehabilitation projects started in rural areas providing the disadvantaged population with school buildings, roads, water and electricity. Despite the war and political struggles, the basic needs of the society was being addressed with higher priorities for the poor. As such, the 1979 revolution was a significant turning point for deprived and disadvantaged groups, particularly in rural areas and for girls. This study aims to provide an in-depth analysis on multiple dimensions of children’s poverty in Iran, starting from 1984 to 2009 and addresses some key questions: Who is deprived and who is moderately deprived from basic needs? Is moderate deprivation more prevalent than deprivation? How children’s deprivation from basic needs has changed over the time? What were the priorities in 1984 and how did it changed in 2009? Is deprivation from basic needs more prevalent in provinces populated with ethnic minorities in Iran? Do rural children have higher deprivation from basic needs than urban children? Do girls have higher deprivation than boys? |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2012/21&r=ara |
| By: | Berk, Istemi (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Aydogan, Berna (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (VAR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE-100) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange’s (CBOE) S&P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price Shocks; Stock Returns; Liquidity; VAR Model |
| JEL: | C58 G15 Q43 Q47 |
| Date: | 2012–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2012_015&r=ara |
| By: | Dina El Kayaly (Enrolled for DBA Maastricht School of Management – Netherland; research areas: Market Research, Market Research Methodologies, Market Research Applications, Enterpreneurnship, Poverty. E-mail dina68@hotmail.com) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to determine the major long-term role that entrepreneurship could play in poverty alleviation and job creation in Egypt. This is done against a background of low deployment of entrepreneurship among Egyptian youth. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses desk research and qualitative analysis depending on industry experts’ interviews collected in Egypt. Findings – The poverty map issued in 2009 by the Ministry of Economic Development indicated that the number of poorest villages has reached 1141 and most of them are concentrated in rural areas of Upper Egypt. The official poverty alleviation measures / program and the efforts of the NGOs helped some of the poor in the short term. While the entrepreneurship education and training could give poor SMEs’ owners opportunities to break the poverty cycle to them as well as to others. Practical implications – As shown by the findings of the study there is an opportunity for growth for SMEs in many areas in Egypt. Educating and training entrepreneurs and other poor persons with potentials could open their eyes to opportunities around them and encourage them to improve their economic situation and maybe participate in job creation to others on the long-term. Originality/value – It highlights the shortcomings of the current poverty alleviation strategy in Egypt. It also highlights the need for youth empowerment as they represent the hope for Egypt. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurs, Poverty, Empowerment, Disadvantaged groups, Egypt. |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2012/17&r=ara |
| By: | Hasan, Zubair |
| Abstract: | This paper is a comment on an article of Abdou Diaw; Obiyathullah Ismath Bacha and Ahsene Lahsusna that appeared in ISRA: International Jurnal of Islamic Finance,Volume 4, Issue 1, June 2012 under the title 'Incentive-compatible sukukmusharkah for private sector funding' The comment is limitted to correcting misinterpretations of some positions taken in Hasan 2002 on profit sharing ratios in mudarabah contracts. |
| Keywords: | Islamic finance; profit sharing ratios; mudarabah |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41873&r=ara |
| By: | Santi, Emanuele |
| Abstract: | Efforts to promote regional integration in North Africa to date have often been constrained by political differences as well as diversity in economic performance, pace of economic reforms and openness, and disparities in legal and regulatory frameworks. Overlapping preferential trade agreements also emerged as a constraint to regional integration efforts on the back of complex rules of origin and a large number of ‘behind the border’ barriers. Together, these impediments have increased transaction costs. Importantly, the existence of these barriers reflects weak commitment to the integration process, as national governments have failed to translate decisions taken at the regional level into action at the country level. In the wake of the Arab Spring, the emerging political landscape in North Africa promises to give new impetus to regional integration efforts, as new democratically-elected governments seek to promote inclusive growth and build institutions for good governance. The diversity of resource endowments in the region, coupled with the existing physical infrastructure, represent an important opportunity to further development through integration. This book examines the key issues and challenges facing regional integration in the North African countries across a number of thematic areas including: (i) energy, (ii) climate change and environment, (iii) financial sector, (iv) trade facilitation and transport, (v) human development and, (vi) information and communication technology. It provides proposals for the Bank’s continued engagement in the region, geared towards exploiting the full potential of regional integration in North Africa for the promotion of a new, inclusive, sustainable economic growth model. |
| Keywords: | Regional Intergration; Economics; Middle East; North Africa; Trade; Energy |
| JEL: | F15 A10 E61 F36 |
| Date: | 2012–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41830&r=ara |